The Covid-19 Info thread (keep politics out please)

[chef dixon]

We are going to take a pretty good lick and then hopefully it'll wimper off after the surge. Looks like it will be ugly though. South Korea did a great job but they are going to be susceptible to repeat outbreaks because its still running so rampant everywhere else and they haven't built up much immunity in their country.

[hacker]

We are going to take a pretty good lick and then hopefully it'll wimper off after the surge. Looks like it will be ugly though. South Korea did a great job but they are going to be susceptible to repeat outbreaks because its still running so rampant everywhere else and they haven't built up much immunity in their country.

I think they'll do fine, they're probably testing on arrival to the country.

[chef dixon]

I think they'll do fine, they're probably testing on arrival to the country.

They might. They will have to be vigilant for a long time though. A lot easier for them to do than us I suppose.

[Johnson85]

Aaaahhhh, natural selection at it's finest. Witness the small steps evolution is taking the create a smarter next generation.

Except it won't do anything to help natural selection b/c they largely aren't going to die. It may punish their parents for raising idiots.

[Johnson85]

There's only two that clearly lean. The others are accused of leaning but in my opinion are much closer to the middle of the country than most realize. I don't think people in Mississippi account for how far right they are nationally. What may appear to be "liberal" to some is just "not a super, far right ideal" to others. It's all perspective and everyone having a voice has confused people. Many blame the media. I personally think social media is more to blame.

It's not a problem to lean. The problem is being untrustworthy. There are plenty of individual journalists that I'm sure are trustworthy regardless of their political leanings. But they don't get blasted all over the TV if they are in broadcast, and to the extent they are in newspapers or online, they are just mixed in with all the ass hats and people pay more attention to the publisher than the byline, so they don't really get identified as trustworthy.

[deadheaddawg]

Perfect example of the greater point. It's not me it's the other side.

I just listened to The President's presser live. He is literally doing the same thing. This attitude you are talking about, It comes from the top.

If we are going to get together as a country it would be nice if the guy in charge would hold off poking the fire.

[Pinto]

I just listened to The President's presser live. He is literally doing the same thing. This attitude you are talking about, It comes from the top.

If we are going to get together as a country it would be nice if the guy in charge would hold off poking the fire

Trump could cure this thing himself and you?d be pissed he didn?t do it sooner. Just shut the hell up with all your political crap already. I come to this bird for anything but that.

[hacker]

5322 new cases and 427 new deaths in Italy

[PMDawg]

I just listened to The President's presser live. He is literally doing the same thing. This attitude you are talking about, It comes from the top.

If we are going to get together as a country it would be nice if the guy in charge would hold off poking the fire.

Yeah, because it definitely started with this president. it's only been that way for 3 years.

[hacker]

Can we leave the politics out?

[KOdawg1]

I just listened to The President's presser live. He is literally doing the same thing. This attitude you are talking about, It comes from the top.

If we are going to get together as a country it would be nice if the guy in charge would hold off poking the fire.

Can we please leave politics out of it?

Mods, the title says to keep politics out of it. Can we enforce that? Ridiculous that I come here to read about the latest developments, and I get to read a shit throwing contest.

[hacker]

Can we please leave politics out of it?

lol, I saw that

[KOdawg1]

lol, I saw that
Thought I'd keep it civil lol

[Irondawg]

This is of course slanted to a certain viewpoint, but does raise some questions to consider as to impacts
https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/19/will-the-costs-of-a-great-depression-outweigh-the-risks-of-coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR3TW8M_MMXr273ck6DUJFY1z1O6SYbY4xMbJuI5 KABTsWyEzTl_XuM_gDI

[hacker]

Here's some good news:

1240687371051393024

[msstate7]

Here's some good news:

1240687371051393024

Why don't they tell number of tests for each day also? Drives me mad that we don't get that info also

[Political Hack]

It's not a problem to lean. The problem is being untrustworthy. There are plenty of individual journalists that I'm sure are trustworthy regardless of their political leanings. But they don't get blasted all over the TV if they are in broadcast, and to the extent they are in newspapers or online, they are just mixed in with all the ass hats and people pay more attention to the publisher than the byline, so they don't really get identified as trustworthy.

I won't argue with that. News stations no longer hold reporters accountable when they become obviously biased. I do think it's a spot problem and not necessarily "network encouraged" as much as some think. However, it has the same effect if it becomes too prevalent. I notice it most consistently on two stations, which I no longer watch.

[Political Hack]

Why don't they tell number of tests for each day also? Drives me mad that we don't get that info also


There's a lot of percentages they're not sharing right now, which I don't appreciate.

[MaroonFlounder]

nope. The people dismissing this are embarrassing. And truth be told I have zero respect for them. The writing has been on the wall. If you were still calling this an overreaction and blaming it on the media last Friday then you are legitimately stupid, dangerous, and gullible fool. There is zero excuse not to know what's going on. And that means you willfully ignored this. Which is embarrassing. And I dont really care what their opinion of me is. They are not the kind of people I want to like me.

Ive tried to be nicer here, because I think this board is a more intelligent and reasonable bunch. That other board is full of blathering idiots.

I don't think anyone knows your identity, so why would you care? You can be as sensationalistic as you want to be, when you are an anonymous message board warrior.

[Johnson85]

I won't argue with that. News stations no longer hold reporters accountable when they become obviously biased. I do think it's a spot problem and not necessarily "network encouraged" as much as some think. However, it has the same effect if it becomes too prevalent. I notice it most consistently on two stations, which I no longer watch.

I'm less bothered by the broadcast "news". THat's essentially a market problem; they are all trash because people want entertainment more than news.

The print I am bothered by. The New York Times and Washington Post haven't abandoned their standards because that's what it took them to gain marketshare (I don't think; certainly could be wrong). Certainly there has been a sea change in the industry and maybe that was an excuse some of the people used for it, particularly not keeping editorial content separate from news content, but I don't t hink people were demanding entertainment from their newspapers int eh same way they were demanding it from broadcast media (or at least not in a way that required them to trash the news side).

[deadheaddawg]

I don't think anyone knows your identity, so why would you care? You can be as sensationalistic as you want to be, when you are an anonymous message board warrior.

Well fwiw my friends and family that are calling this overblown or blaming it on the media know my opinion on this too, and it's the same. If you are ignoring what is happening and you are giving dangerous advice I don't respect you. And we probably should distance ourselves permanently in real life.

Pretty stunning lack of compassion out there right now.

[dawgday166]

Well fwiw my friends and family that are calling this overblown or blaming it on the media know my opinion on this too, and it's the same. If you are ignoring what is happening and you are giving dangerous advice I don't respect you. And we probably should distance ourselves permanently in real life.

Pretty stunning lack of compassion out there right now.

Hysteria and compassion aren't the same thing.

[Johnson85]

There's a lot of percentages they're not sharing right now, which I don't appreciate.


The other thing that annoys me is they aren't giving any information on the people that test positive or whether there is any obvious transmission route.

It matters if somebody has recently traveled or not when people are assessing risk. We have cases in some relatively backwoods places, and if they aren't largely from people that have some idea of where they might have caught it, that tells us a lot about the likely prevalence in the area.

[Political Hack]

The other thing that annoys me is they aren't giving any information on the people that test positive or whether there is any obvious transmission route.

It matters if somebody has recently traveled or not when people are assessing risk. We have cases in some relatively backwoods places, and if they aren't largely from people that have some idea of where they might have caught it, that tells us a lot about the likely prevalence in the area.

Exactly. I don't know if they're hiding the impact or don't have reliable ways to track the info or what, but the task force lady said in a WH briefing two days ago that she had just received a large amount of data that should help start helping us understand the impacts more. Then radio silence for days... I know testing was delayed for whatever reason at the outbreak, but now that everyone understands how severe this is why would we be waiting to share all the underlying data?

[hacker]

I know Singapore is small, but it just seems crazy that they can do this with their data: https://co.vid19.sg/cases

...while we're out here waiting for crumbs. And waiting 7 days for test results.


If you click on one of the nodes in the graph, you get details: https://co.vid19.sg/cases/singapore-case-24-32-year-old-female-singapore-citizen

[FISHDAWG]

Mid next week it heats up really good down south though. Fingers crossed.

I keep seeing post saying heat combats it .... heard this am on the radio from CDC that it was a myth

[The Federalist Engineer]

Chinese Numbers for the Virus have a very interesting summary

IF you take out Hubei Province (Wuhan City is located there)....

Six other provinces in China with a population of 523.3 Million more than USA (372M) and more than the entire EU (513M) only have 5223 Infected and 18 dead. I am looking at Guangdong, Hunan, Fujian, Jiangxi, Zhejing, and Shanghai.

Source: Johns Hopkins Site: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

The State of New York (19M) already has 4158 infected and 21 dead

Seems to me that Either China is lying about the numbers in China or Something else (you decide)

[msstate7]

I keep seeing post saying heat combats it .... heard this am on the radio from CDC that it was a myth
Who knows? This article claims it does based on data taken before China locked down

[msstate7]

Who knows? This article claims it does based on data taken before China locked down

https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-wellness/new-study-says-high-temperature-and-high-relative-humidity-significantly-reduce-spread-of-covid-19/703418?utm_campaign=AccuWeather&utm_content&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook

[hacker]

Sean Payton tests positive

[SheltonChoked]

Chinese Numbers for the Virus have a very interesting summary

IF you take out Hubei Province (Wuhan City is located there)....

Six other provinces in China with a population of 523.3 Million more than USA (372M) and more than the entire EU (513M) only have 5223 Infected and 18 dead. I am looking at Guangdong, Hunan, Fujian, Jiangxi, Zhejing, and Shanghai.

Source: Johns Hopkins Site: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

The State of New York (19M) already has 4158 infected and 21 dead

Seems to me that Either China is lying about the numbers in China or Something else (you decide)

China instituted Martial Law, and has a populace that listens to the government to stay at home and doesn't go on Spring break. The also tested, isolated and tracked the contacts aggressively. Bringing in Medical help from all over China. And built 2 - 1,000 bed hospitals...

All things We CANNOT do.

[Dawgology]

China instituted Martial Law, and has a populace that listens to the government to stay at home and doesn't go on Spring break. The also tested, isolated and tracked the contacts aggressively. Bringing in Medical help from all over China. And built 2 - 1,000 bed hospitals...

All things We CANNOT do.

We CAN do but we won't...until it is far too late.

[Johnson85]

I keep seeing post saying heat combats it .... heard this am on the radio from CDC that it was a myth

It won't slow it down like it does flu season. And if we have a lot of cases, it won't matter. I think the Spanish Flu peaked in like July or August. But if we can keep the cases from exploding, it might significantly change the Ro, maybe pushing it below 1 and allowed us to control it much faster than if we were fighting it in colder and drier months.

[Dawgology]

It won't slow it down like it does flu season. And if we have a lot of cases, it won't matter. I think the Spanish Flu peaked in like July or August. But if we can keep the cases from exploding, it might significantly change the Ro, maybe pushing it below 1 and allowed us to control it much faster than if we were fighting it in colder and drier months.

Exactly. New report I saw today indicated that heat really has no impact on it slowing down. Distance and time is what we need. We just need to buy enough time so that proper treatments can be developed and a vaccine can be finalized, produced, and made available.

[hacker]

2,330 new cases in NY alone in the past 24 hours

[hacker]

Washington is doing good. Only 58 in the past 24 hours. I think their curve is flattening.

[Dawg2003]

Health department confirms 1st death. From Hancock County.

[Matt3467]

China instituted Martial Law, and has a populace that listens to the government to stay at home and doesn't go on Spring break. The also tested, isolated and tracked the contacts aggressively. Bringing in Medical help from all over China. And built 2 - 1,000 bed hospitals...

All things We CANNOT do.


We CAN do but we won't...until it is far too late.

China lies and China doesn't mind if they lose much of their populace. We don't need to be taking any pointers from that communist country. They were also welding people into their homes and putting metal bars on the windows. Many people that spoke out about them ended up vanishing. The numbers China allowed to leak I wouldn't trust as far as I could throw an elephant.

[Dolphus Raymond]

Right now, our response is at least 6 weeks behind where it should be. Those at the top chose to bury their collective heads in the sand rather than act proactively and now the entire crisis is FUBAR. People will die because of this, and some continue to make excuses for those who should have acted earlier. Just damn guys, stop enabling these people. They F?d up and now we are going to have to pay a huge price in both lives ?treasure?.

[hacker]

34 year old:

https://www.foxla.com/news/glendora-man-34-dies-from-coronavirus-recently-visited-disney-world-in-florida-report

This one is pretty concerning to me. I had asthma, bronchitis, and pneumonia as a kid just like this guy did. Plus I'm older than him.

[Cooterpoot]

Right now, our response is at least 6 weeks behind where it should be. Those at the top chose to bury their collective heads in the sand rather than act proactively and now the entire crisis is FUBAR. People will die because of this, and some continue to make excuses for those who should have acted earlier. Just damn guys, stop enabling these people. They F?d up and now we are going to have to pay a huge price in both lives ?treasure?.

Not true. This wasn't going to be stopped or slowed regardless. Its got to run its course while we wait on a vaccine.

[deadheaddawg]

Not true. This wasn't going to be stopped or slowed regardless. Its got to run its course while we wait on a vaccine.

Not True. It absolutely could have been slowed.

[KOdawg1]

Right now, our response is at least 6 weeks behind where it should be. Those at the top chose to bury their collective heads in the sand rather than act proactively and now the entire crisis is FUBAR. People will die because of this, and some continue to make excuses for those who should have acted earlier. Just damn guys, stop enabling these people. They F?d up and now we are going to have to pay a huge price in both lives ?treasure?.
This is exaggerated.

[BeardoMSU]

Not true. This wasn't going to be stopped or slowed regardless. Its got to run its course while we wait on a vaccine.

Without getting political, let me say....Jesus, dude....c'mon.

[WeWonItAll(Most)]

34 year old:

https://www.foxla.com/news/glendora-man-34-dies-from-coronavirus-recently-visited-disney-world-in-florida-report

This one is pretty concerning to me. I had asthma, bronchitis, and pneumonia as a kid just like this guy did. Plus I'm older than him.

You left out the part where he had testicular cancer. First line chemo for a lot of testicular cancers is Bleomycin. The notorious side effect of Bleomycin is pulmonary fibrosis.

ETA: so to be clear, there's a significant chance he had severe underlying respiratory complications from chemo (which the article hinted at). Not merely a history of asthma and bronchitis.

[BeardoMSU]

Without getting political, let me say....Jesus, dude....c'mon.

To say we, these United States of America, supposedly the greatest country in the history of the planet, couldn't have been better prepared for this, in terms of policy, infrastructure, and leadership, is just an astounding thing to hear....

[99jc]

A very close friend of mine was just diagnosed with the virus. He is extremely ill. I was with him for a day a week ago...it's getting real.

[BeardoMSU]

A very close friend of mine was just diagnosed with the virus. He is extremely ill. I was with him for a day a week ago...it's getting real.

Sorry to hear that, man.

[deadheaddawg]

To say we, these United States of America, supposedly the greatest country in the history of the planet, couldn't have been better prepared for this, in terms of policy, infrastructure, and leadership, is just an astounding thing to hear....

Yep.

That should be a clear indication that it isn't true.

[Cooterpoot]

Not True. It absolutely could have been slowed.

Prove it. Because nobody has. But you're going to panic and bitch and moan, so go ahead.

[BeardoMSU]

Prove it. Because nobody has. But you're going to panic and bitch and moan, so go ahead.

Lolz, ok....if this is what you're going to contribute, just go back to the ****ing dugout.

[Cooterpoot]

Without getting political, let me say....Jesus, dude....c'mon.

Name all the countries that stopped this in its tracks- None have. Being the greatest country in the world doesn't make us immune.
Hell, it wasn't even considered a pandemic til a couple weeks ago.

[BeardoMSU]

Name all the countries that stopped this in its tracks- None have. Being the greatest country in the world doesn't make us immune.
Hell, it wasn't even considered a pandemic til a couple weeks ago.

Lol, it's not about "stopping it", genius...obviously it was never going to be stopped in its tracks...it's about being competent enough to at least see the warning signs, take advice of physicians and medical scientists for preparedness/basic infrastructure, and not send mixed-messages downplaying its significance to the country's populace, which we are still seeing the effects of (e.g., spring break).

Liquidating the WH NSC pandemic response team didn't help, either....but I digress.

[Cooterpoot]

Lol, it's not about "stopping it", genius...obviously it was never going to be stopped in its tracks...it's about being competent enough to at least see the warning signs, take advice of physicians and medical scientists for preparedness/basic infrastructure, and not send mixed-messages downplaying its significance to the country's populace, which we are still seeing the effects of (e.g., spring break).

Liquidating the WH NSC pandemic response team didn't help, either....but I digress.

You realize the pandemic team wasn't liquidated right? That's more BS.

[deadheaddawg]

Name all the countries that stopped this in its tracks- None have. Being the greatest country in the world doesn't make us immune.
Hell, it wasn't even considered a pandemic til a couple weeks ago.

You said slow down or stop.

It could have been slowed down and you damn well know it.

[dantheman4248]

Name all the countries that stopped this in its tracks- None have. Being the greatest country in the world doesn't make us immune.
Hell, it wasn't even considered a pandemic til a couple weeks ago.

South Korea and the US had their 1st case on the same day. South Korea did have it contained until one bad apple spoiled the bunch. Even then, they've had 152 new cases in the past 24 hours. We've had 4000+ in that same time frame. They've had more people recovered than infected in the past 24 hours. They flattened their curve. Ours is now spiking as we are able to test more and get closer to accurately depicting our amount. Believe me, there is still way more than 13k cases out there.

[Dolphus Raymond]

Hell yes it could have been slowed down. That is exactly what we are trying to do now. We are trying to do now what we should have been doing in at least mid January. The incompetence demonstrated by our leadership that allowed us to get so far behind was a dereliction of duty.

[BeardoMSU]

You realize the pandemic team wasn't liquidated right? That's more BS.

Prove it**

[whispers: "you can't"]

ETA: before you go there, spare me the Tim Morrison emergency editorial in an attempt to save face.

[Dolphus Raymond]

Are some of you getting your information through Qanon? Asking for a friend.

[Pinto]

It?s amazing the amount of experts on here that can?t prove jack nor have any facts to back up their irrational emotional non logical ramblings.

[dantheman4248]

It?s amazing the amount of experts on here that can?t prove jack nor have any facts to back up their irrational emotional non logical ramblings.

I literally just dealt in purely facts... every word of my previous post is a fact. You're willfully seeing facts and numbers and saying they can't be backed up. It's easily researchable. Patient 31 in South Korea. Go look at the world meters website for accurate counts. The numbers may vary slightly but you can see which country flattened its curve and which did not.

[BeardoMSU]

I literally just dealt in purely facts...

You should stop by for the threads when someone says the Earth is, in fact, not 6,000 years old***

[deadheaddawg]

It?s amazing the amount of experts on here that can?t prove jack nor have any facts to back up their irrational emotional non logical ramblings.

lol

[Cooterpoot]

God it's so much fun riling up the crazies.

[Turfdawg67]

God it's so much fun riling up the crazies.

Funny. I was just thinking "Boy, they riled up that bat shit crazy Cooter".

Sean Payton tested positive for the virus... Is this old news?

[Pinto]

https://media1.tenor.com/images/c5dd72c7443a2d62ceb22c4e4c672f4c/tenor.gif?itemid=9536199

[BeardoMSU]

God it's so much fun riling up the crazies.

Glad you could provide some content to support your statements...

[BeardoMSU]

Funny. I was just thinking "Boy, they riled up that bat shit crazy Cooter".

Sean Payton tested positive for the virus... Is this old news?

About an hour or so, but not ancient.

[Cooterpoot]

Prove it**

[whispers: "you can't"]

ETA: before you go there, spare me the Tim Morrison emergency editorial in an attempt to save face.

No point when you can't see anything but the left side. I have no political loyalties. I couldn't care less what you "believe".

[deadheaddawg]

God it's so much fun riling up the crazies.

Just want to quote this so you don't go back and try to edit or erase it later

Imagine being this guy. Right now. With what's going on in the world.

[BeardoMSU]

No point when you can't see anything but the left side.

There is no left vs right side argument when your only source is a political appointee, who isn't a medical professional, scientist, or physician of any kind (a lawyer and GOP strategist, in fact)....

Not that there is anything wrong with being a lawyer or GOP strategist, btw. But in this discussion, expertise matters.

[deadheaddawg]

It?s amazing the amount of experts on here that can?t prove jack nor have any facts to back up their irrational emotional non logical ramblings.




https://media1.tenor.com/images/c5dd72c7443a2d62ceb22c4e4c672f4c/tenor.gif?itemid=9536199

Quoted for prosperity.

It's going to look really pathetic in a few days. Ignorant and pathetic..

[Commercecomet24]

Anyone heard about refinery's shutting down and gas supplies being shut down due to the corona?

[Cooterpoot]

Just want to quote this so you don't go back and try to edit or erase it later

Imagine being this guy. Right now. With what's going on in the world.

My world is great. See, that's the difference. I don't lose my shit over this. I follow the precautions and carry on with normal life outside of dealing with hoarders. Not much has changed for me. Gas is cheap, I can buy stocks low, work is busier than ever, kids are home. I've had something very similar to this virus already. I'm just moving on with life while some of you freak out over it.

[BeardoMSU]

No point when you can't see anything but the left side. I have no political loyalties. I couldn't care less what you "believe".

FYI...Fauci, who has been doing an excellent job of providing info to the public in this dire time, had an opinion on this very matter. How pray-tell does he see "anything but the left side"?*

https://www.businessinsider.com/fauci-would-be-nice-trump-hadnt-scrapped-nsc-global-health-2020-3

And might want to check this out...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/i-ran-the-white-house-pandemic-office-trump-closed-it/ar-BB1192Xy

Also...

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-fire-pandemic-team/

[Cooterpoot]

Not happening on the refineries. They're good.

[dawgday166]

Anyone heard about refinery's shutting down and gas supplies being shut down due to the corona?

Where'd you hear that? FoxNews or CNN ... or from someone who has MD or PhD after their name? That's what matters *****

[The Federalist Engineer]

China instituted Martial Law, and has a populace that listens to the government to stay at home and doesn't go on Spring break. The also tested, isolated and tracked the contacts aggressively. Bringing in Medical help from all over China. And built 2 - 1,000 bed hospitals...

All things We CANNOT do.

What you propose is plausible. But if they contained and implemented Martial Law so well, why is it just about everywhere on Earth?

I can understand Iranians officials trying to buy Bio weapons in Wuhan and visiting often, but American's business is in Shanghai, Shenzen, Hong Kong, Jining, and Beijing.

But one thing that I know through 20 years of doing business with Chinese companies is that they do things in great scale, but it's generally a mess. It's the world workshop because it's cheap and cuts corners that others won't, not because of quality. If you read a book by Henry Paulson "Dealing With China" which is a huge brag by a Goldman Sachs executive on how GS made ton of money restructuring corrupt and efficient Chinese state enterprises so that they could be IPO'ed as partially Public Companies on global stock exchanges, he basically says the same thing as me. My experience is only a fractal of his. Below is a picture of their great mass-scale engineering marvel the "Three Gorges Dam", is is already buckling, like it was designed by Ole Miss grads.

Don't confuse China with Japan. The Japanese fans will cleanup soccer stadiums after world cup games to show how peerless their civility is.

Another thing that is curious is that Chinese tourist/expat hubs like Russia, Thailand (Bangkock is loaded with Chinese tourists), Toronto, and Vancouver are only scratched? If our spring break is wild and undisciplined, Bangkok and Pattaya in Thailand make South Beach look like a Baptist retreat. The Viral path looks very directed, make your own conclusions. Venice was about 15% Chinese tourists, Bangkok is about 30% Chinese tourists.

https://img.theepochtimes.com/assets/uploads/2019/07/08/Three-Gorges-Dam-20092018-700x420.jpg

[Commercecomet24]

Where'd you hear that? FoxNews or CNN ... or from someone who has MD or PhD after their name? That's what matters *****

A friend who said he had "inside info" lol. I called bs on it and he said no it was real. I still say bs

[Cooterpoot]

FYI...Fauci, who has been doing an excellent job of providing info to the public in this dire time, had an opinion on this very matter. How pray-tell does he see "anything but the left side"?*

https://www.businessinsider.com/fauci-would-be-nice-trump-hadnt-scrapped-nsc-global-health-2020-3

And might want to check this out...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/i-ran-the-white-house-pandemic-office-trump-closed-it/ar-BB1192Xy

Also...

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-fire-pandemic-team/

It's his job. He's got to convince people. I watched him last week tell people not to fly but not to stop a lot of normal activities as long as crowds aren't involved. He wasn't in a panic.
Snopes was already proven to be as accurate as Facebook.

[Pinto]

Quoted for prosperity.

It's going to look really pathetic in a few days. Ignorant and pathetic..

https://i.imgflip.com/25wm2i.jpg

[GreenheadDawg]

Hell yes it could have been slowed down. That is exactly what we are trying to do now. We are trying to do now what we should have been doing in at least mid January. The incompetence demonstrated by our leadership that allowed us to get so far behind was a dereliction of duty.

Nancy, go take your meds and go to bed. I love superiority complex of ?some? guys on here that think they could do so much better. Real easy to be a arm chair president.

[BeardoMSU]

It's his job. He's got to convince people. I watched him last week tell people not to fly but not to stop a lot of normal activities as long as crowds aren't involved. He wasn't in a panic.

Ah, ok...

Btw, just saying "I was wrong" is perfectly fine. There is more dignity in it.

Again, this a factual discussion, not a political one. Its ok to be mistaken, and admit it; God knows I've been there....

[dawgday166]

A friend who said he had "inside info" lol. I called bs on it and he said no it was real. I still say bs

So a friend of mine (no inside sources) said he had read somewhere the truckers' unions are getting worked up cause they're finding it difficult to find gas stations/truck stops to stop at and if they do stop at a place that's open (not all are), they aren't allowed to come in, or when they unload at final destination they're not allowed to get out of their trucks, etc.

Not sure how true that is but I could see that maybe being the case. Everyone wants their services as long as it's not their life that is at risk.

[Cooterpoot]

Ah, ok...

Btw, just saying "I was wrong" is perfectly fine. There is more dignity in it.

Again, this a factual discussion, not a political one. Its ok to be mistaken, and admit it; God knows I've been there....

Oh, I'm not wrong. You can find the interview online and the Snopes truth too. Just look. I don't help the lazy.
You'd dismiss either. So save yourself and everyone else the trouble.

[dantheman4248]

You should stop by for the threads when someone says the Earth is, in fact, not 6,000 years old***

I've never understood creationists debating this. You could literally argue that God created dinosaur bones, fossils, etc to be in the state they were 6,000 years ago for... whatever reason. It's a plausible compromise.

[Cowbell]

Anyone heard about refinery's shutting down and gas supplies being shut down due to the corona?

An uncle of mine is high up at a refinery in west Texas (ConocoPhillips). He thinks that it is possible they shut down atleast some and could see fuel becoming unavailable. I just talked to him. And he's level headed.

[dantheman4248]

A couple people in this thread look like they need to be quarantined away from this thread so they don't spread their stupidity. Please follow Doggie_Style's blueprint and stop posting once you've realized how horribly misguided you are on the topic.

Side note if a mod wants to take away all his vCash that would be cool. I don't even care for it, I wanted to teach a lesson.

[Commercecomet24]

An uncle of mine is high up at a refinery in west Texas (ConocoPhillips). He thinks that it is possible they shut down atleast some and could see fuel becoming unavailable. I just talked to him. And he's level headed.

Appreciate the info. Thank you! And thank you to Cooter and 166 for their info on it as well.

[yjnkdawg]

So a friend of mine (no inside sources) said he had read somewhere the truckers' unions are getting worked up cause they're finding it difficult to find gas stations/truck stops to stop at and if they do stop at a place that's open (not all are), they aren't allowed to come in, or when they unload at final destination they're not allowed to get out of their trucks, etc.

Not sure how true that is but I could see that maybe being the case. Everyone wants their services as long as it's not their life that is at risk.



I saw something similar, and it was mainly that they are upset because it is drive through only services, and that doesn't work for an eighteen wheeler. They can't walk up to the window or door (at a truck stop), and get any food service. Hopefully they can get that handled. Truckers are the unsung heroes in this crisis right now.

[DownwardDawg]

An uncle of mine is high up at a refinery in west Texas (ConocoPhillips). He thinks that it is possible they shut down atleast some and could see fuel becoming unavailable. I just talked to him. And he's level headed.

The large oil companies are doing all they can to continue to produce, refine, and supply as safely as possible. They are changing crew change to no flights offshore for weeks for some companies. Trust me on this.

[dawgday166]

I saw something similar, and it was mainly that they are upset because it is drive through only services, and that doesn't work for an eighteen wheeler. They can't walk up to the window or door (at a truck stop), and get any food service. Hopefully they can get that handled. Truckers are the unsung heroes in this crisis right now.

Yes they are.

[DownwardDawg]

A friend who said he had "inside info" lol. I called bs on it and he said no it was real. I still say bs

It is BS

[Commercecomet24]

It is BS

Appreciate it.

[HancockCountyDog]

Prove it. Because nobody has. But you're going to panic and bitch and moan, so go ahead.

How can you say there was nothing we could do when several other countries a lot poorer, less developed than us - have not only slowed the spread, it has basically stopped.

We are following the Italy model as opposed to the Japan/South Korea model.

Shit, in most places in MS/AL we don't even have tests still.

I think its safe to say that this was a cluster****. To try and act like the administration took this seriously and that there was simply nothing we could do, is just creating a narrative out of thin air. I say all this despite voting for the man. He ****ed this up. Any attempt to say otherwise is just partisan bullshit.

[deadheaddawg]

How can you say there was nothing we could do when several other countries a lot poorer, less developed than us - have not only slowed the spread, it has basically stopped.

We are following the Italy model as opposed to the Japan/South Korea model.

Shit, in most places in MS/AL we don't even have tests still.

I think its safe to say that this was a cluster****. To try and act like the administration took this seriously and that there was simply nothing we could do, is just creating a narrative out of thin air. I say all this despite voting for the man. He ****ed this up. Any attempt to say otherwise is just partisan bullshit.

Well said

[FriarsPoint]

Regardless of your opinion of the source, it’s worth a read.
https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2020/03/19/5-reasons-to-doubt-chinas-claim-it-has-stopped-seeing-coronavirus-cases/

[The Federalist Engineer]

How can you say there was nothing we could do when several other countries a lot poorer, less developed than us - have not only slowed the spread, it has basically stopped.

We are following the Italy model as opposed to the Japan/South Korea model.

Shit, in most places in MS/AL we don't even have tests still.

I think its safe to say that this was a cluster****. To try and act like the administration took this seriously and that there was simply nothing we could do, is just creating a narrative out of thin air. I say all this despite voting for the man. He ****ed this up. Any attempt to say otherwise is just partisan bullshit.

Which country are you speaking of? I would agree that Taiwan (0.92%) and S. Korea (1.08%) have death rates that seem to be under control. But these three nations share a conviction that the People's Republic of China is not a friend and probably Taiwan (the Good Chinese people that FDR and Truman sold out) is especially careful of China. They are still on a war posture with China and/or the China satellite North Korea.

Other major free nations (Death rate %)....Germany (0.28%), UK (5.09%), Italy (8.29%), Spain (4.60%), Netherlands (3.08%), Canada (1.37%), Japan (3.49%), and France (3.37%). The US is 1.43%.

The other major issue is that each year there are 41M Americans traveling abroad. That's more people than Canada's entire population. Also the USA gets 3M visitors from China per year. Only Canadian and Mexican nationals visit the US more than Chinese nationals. US universities have 360K chinese students, Germany only has 36K. The US has more undocumented migrants than S Korea has people. The US also has the biggest companies in the world, you have legions of American expats working and traveling to china at any given moment.

I am not trying to be homer for any government official, the US actually is supposed to be a limited government society. So ordering and appropriating the supply chain of a particular industry is not the design of the US government, who owns the inventory and how do you account for the material? The mayor of New York, California Governor, US senators, and US presidents are not suppose issue directives to clinics, particular hospitals, or pharmacies. Even Martial Law and Curfew is going to get ACLU challenges before this is said and done. Then you have tort lawyers, that nobody else has on Earth. If a US test is 99.97% accurate and 8 people are false negative and they infect and kill a few people....that could destroy a company.

[Cooterpoot]

How can you say there was nothing we could do when several other countries a lot poorer, less developed than us - have not only slowed the spread, it has basically stopped.

We are following the Italy model as opposed to the Japan/South Korea model.

Shit, in most places in MS/AL we don't even have tests still.

I think its safe to say that this was a cluster****. To try and act like the administration took this seriously and that there was simply nothing we could do, is just creating a narrative out of thin air. I say all this despite voting for the man. He ****ed this up. Any attempt to say otherwise is just partisan bullshit.

Those countries are 4+ months ahead of us. A Dr I work with at a hospital in MS said yesterday this is the single greatest response from government agencies he's ever seen as in his 40 years of providing medical care. Said the response from all levels has been fast and efficient.
We could've thrown together tests for this and it could've killed people. The government has done everything they can to assist the medical community.

[hacker]

Those countries are 4+ months ahead of us.

Italy is about 10 days ahead of us

[hacker]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETgIGYaXYAEJ-28?format=jpg&name=large

[dantheman4248]

Those countries are 4+ months ahead of us. A Dr I work with at a hospital in MS said yesterday this is the single greatest response from government agencies he's ever seen as in his 40 years of providing medical care. Said the response from all levels has been fast and efficient.
We could've thrown together tests for this and it could've killed people. The government has done everything they can to assist the medical community.

Since you are lacking reading comprehension...

WE HAD OUR FIRST CONFIRMED CASE ON THE EXACT SAME DAY AS SOUTH KOREA.

[hacker]

"Some people form their beliefs based on evidence. Others, their evidence on beliefs."

[Johnson85]

How can you say there was nothing we could do when several other countries a lot poorer, less developed than us - have not only slowed the spread, it has basically stopped.

We are following the Italy model as opposed to the Japan/South Korea model.

Shit, in most places in MS/AL we don't even have tests still.

I think its safe to say that this was a cluster****. To try and act like the administration took this seriously and that there was simply nothing we could do, is just creating a narrative out of thin air. I say all this despite voting for the man. He ****ed this up. Any attempt to say otherwise is just partisan bullshit.

We are not Japan or South Korea, mostly for good and sometimes for bad. We will always look indecisive compared to them in any crisis, which again, will sometimes be good and sometimes be bad. I don't think Trump has done a particularly good or bad job. It's been abundantly clear that our bureaucracies are out of control and working against him a lot, so even if he had tried to weigh in on the day to day decisions and standing procedures that 17ed us, I don't know that it would have made anything better or worse.

The head of CDC doesn't look like an unqualified appointment. Hard to really hammer Trump for that one. I really doubt Trump was involved in the CDC's decision to do its own test or in screwing it up. I don't think Trump was the one that put the FDA regulations in place that required other parties to have to go through a time consuming approval process. (Probably the biggest thing you can blame Trump for is not just issuing an emergency executive order suspending those regs; that might not have exactly been legal, but provided nobody got injunctive relief against it, it would be a moot issue by the time it was resolved).

We are never going to be set up to respond to a crisis like this with the swift efficiency of smaller, more homogenous and obedient cultures or authoritarian ones. WHen the first CDC test didn't work, that pretty much 17ed us.

[MaroonFlounder]

How can you say there was nothing we could do when several other countries a lot poorer, less developed than us - have not only slowed the spread, it has basically stopped.

We are following the Italy model as opposed to the Japan/South Korea model.

Shit, in most places in MS/AL we don't even have tests still.

I think its safe to say that this was a cluster****. To try and act like the administration took this seriously and that there was simply nothing we could do, is just creating a narrative out of thin air. I say all this despite voting for the man. He ****ed this up. Any attempt to say otherwise is just partisan bullshit.

Trump will get the blame for the delay in serious action, yes. It probably means Biden will be your next president.

CHINA was going to make sure other nations took it lightly with LIES, MIS-INFORMATION, and COVER-UP.

[Churchill]

[QUOTE=Commercecomet24;1238536]Anyone heard about refinery's shutting down and gas supplies being shut down due to the corona?[/QUOTE

If we see this, how do we know it's not part of an effort to prop up prices in the face of quickly declining consumption figures ? In this country always remember to follow the money first.

[Joebob]

Those countries are 4+ months ahead of us. A Dr I work with at a hospital in MS said yesterday this is the single greatest response from government agencies he's ever seen as in his 40 years of providing medical care. Said the response from all levels has been fast and efficient.
We could've thrown together tests for this and it could've killed people. The government has done everything they can to assist the medical community.

What that doctor is missing is that this country was totally unprepared for this pandemic and didn?t begin their response until it was too late to avoid draconian economic consequences. Tell him to do some reading on Korea?s response to this and he?ll quickly change his opinion.

[99jc]

While I would agree that Trump minimized this at the beginning anyone that would blame him has no common sense.

[Dawg2003]

Louisiana up to 479 cases. They update twice a day. We are up to 80.

[chef dixon]

I'm not sure why anyone would think Trump would know how to handle a global pandemic crisis. He's got no qualifications for it. It's not really his fault he's not prepared but he is the president so here we are.

[deadheaddawg]

Those countries are 4+ months ahead of us. .

You are so uniformed on this subject it would be best if you just kept quiet and listened

[hacker]

https://i.imgur.com/1iQblS8.png

[Johnson85]

I'm not sure why anyone would think Trump would know how to handle a global pandemic crisis. He's got no qualifications for it. It's not really his fault he's not prepared but he is the president so here we are.

We haven't had a President in my memory that would know how to handle a global pandemic crisis. Experience in how to handle that is not generally conducive to making a presidential run. I'd rather have Regan, Bush I, or Clinton in charge, but I'm not sure they'd make much of a difference. Based on Obama's performance, I'd prefer Trump. I'd be indifferent between Bush II and Trump. But I don't think any of them would move the needle a ton. The 17ups were mainly at the CDC. If the testing hadn't been screwed up, then maybe we'd see a difference in performance based on who is president. But the testing screwups pretty much limit the effectiveness of what we any President could legally do, and I don't think any president would be in the weeds enough at the CDC to make a difference on that.

[msstate7]

https://i.imgur.com/1iQblS8.png

Pretty grim way to paint it with the this stat right above where you got that...

https://i.postimg.cc/BbySQRjD/67-DE958-F-E8-AA-44-EC-B428-837-A27-C6-DD47.jpg (https://postimages.org/)

[dawgs]

Those countries are 4+ months ahead of us. A Dr I work with at a hospital in MS said yesterday this is the single greatest response from government agencies he's ever seen as in his 40 years of providing medical care. Said the response from all levels has been fast and efficient.
We could've thrown together tests for this and it could've killed people. The government has done everything they can to assist the medical community.

I question this doctor if his argument is a swab up the nose "could've killed people".

[hacker]

Pretty grim way to paint it with the this stat right above where you got that...

https://i.postimg.cc/BbySQRjD/67-DE958-F-E8-AA-44-EC-B428-837-A27-C6-DD47.jpg (https://postimages.org/)

The mild/critical condition isn't accurate. For example, it says Iran has 0 critical cases yet 150 people died there yesterday. I imagine not everywhere is reporting this data and if they don't get the data for a particular case, it goes into the mild bucket.

[dawgs]

We haven't had a President in my memory that would know how to handle a global pandemic crisis. Experience in how to handle that is not generally conducive to making a presidential run. I'd rather have Regan, Bush I, or Clinton in charge, but I'm not sure they'd make much of a difference. Based on Obama's performance, I'd prefer Trump. I'd be indifferent between Bush II and Trump. But I don't think any of them would move the needle a ton. The 17ups were mainly at the CDC. If the testing hadn't been screwed up, then maybe we'd see a difference in performance based on who is president. But the testing screwups pretty much limit the effectiveness of what we any President could legally do, and I don't think any president would be in the weeds enough at the CDC to make a difference on that.

Yeah, I'd take the guy that cut the pandemic response team that Obama put into place over obama who had experience with the Ebola and MERS outbreaks elsewhere in the world under his administration, saw the threat, and put a team together to have logistics plans in place and ready to mobilize in these exact type scenarios. But maybe that's just my bias showing.

[KOdawg1]

You are so uniformed on this subject it would be best if you just kept quiet and listened

I wish you would take your own advice.

[msstate7]

The mild/critical condition isn't accurate. For example, it says Iran has 0 critical cases yet 150 people died there yesterday. I imagine not everywhere is reporting this data and if they don't get the data for a particular case, it goes into the mild bucket.


Guess you think case number is accurate though.


I'll take the under (way under) on 10% death rate when this is over.

[hacker]

Guess you think case number is accurate though.


I'll take the under (way under) on 10% death rate when this is over.

Me too, especially when you consider the asymptomatic/mild cases that aren't being detected. But it's still the best data we have at this point.

But just keep in mind, SARS had a 10% death rate, MERS > 30%. COVID is in the same family.

[Johnson85]

Me too, especially when you consider the asymptomatic/mild cases that aren't being detected. But it's still the best data we have at this point.

But just keep in mind, SARS had a 10% death rate, MERS > 30%. COVID is in the same family.

Also in the same family as a common cold. This is bad, but we have some decent outer bounds on the potential death rate absent improved treatments and absent a mutation or some increased risk present outside of Asia.

It's probably going to be somewhere between .5% to 1.2% with current treatment, and then maybe as high as 3.5% if hospitals are overwhelmed and the experiences of the hardest hit countries become typical. Pretty much all of those rates are awful with how contagious this is, with 3.5% being maybe the biggest catastrophe in modern history? But unless we find out obesity is a death knell when combined with COVID-19, I am optimistic we will end up around that 1% number or less (which is still awful and will be a generation defining event unlike anything since probably WWII, or maybe Vietnam depending on how you look at it).

[WeWonItAll(Most)]

Me too, especially when you consider the asymptomatic/mild cases that aren't being detected. But it's still the best data we have at this point.

But just keep in mind, SARS had a 10% death rate, MERS > 30%. COVID is in the same family.

COVID is also in the same family as some common colds. Most viral respiratory panels test for 3-4 different coronavirus strains.

[hacker]

Pennsylvania, California, and now NY governors have issued executive orders for lockdowns. Looks like instead of a national lockdown, it's just going to go state by state.

[msstate7]

Pennsylvania, California, and now NY governors have issued executive orders for lockdowns. Looks like instead of a national lockdown, it's just going to go state by state.

In the states with lockdowns, what is considered essential business for exclusions?

[Johnson85]

Yeah, I'd take the guy that cut the pandemic response team that Obama put into place over obama who had experience with the Ebola and MERS outbreaks elsewhere in the world under his administration, saw the threat, and put a team together to have logistics plans in place and ready to mobilize in these exact type scenarios. But maybe that's just my bias showing.

Ignoring the false talking point about getting rid of the pandemic response capabilities, if you want to take into account Obama's experience with the Swine Flu and assumign he'd learn, that's probably a good argument. I was talking more about facing a new, unprecedented situation. Based on their demonstrated competence at things like rolling out Obamacare, I wouldn't want them on their first crack at a pandemic with one like this but giving them the benefit of what utlimatley woudl look like a dry run, they hopefully would be better. Again, probably wouldn't make a huge difference as a lot of the responsibility lies with non-political appointees, but maybe marginally better.

[hacker]

COVID is also in the same family as some common colds. Most viral respiratory panels test for 3-4 different coronavirus strains.

I understand that. But it's called SARS-CoV-2 for a reason.

[hacker]

In the states with lockdowns, what is considered essential business for exclusions?

Pennsylvania's list: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6815335-20200319-Life-Sustaining-Business.html#document

[WeWonItAll(Most)]

I understand that. But it's called SARS-CoV-2 for a reason.

The reason is not that its a variant of the previous SARS that had 10% mortality

[dawgs]

Ignoring the false talking point about getting rid of the pandemic response capabilities, if you want to take into account Obama's experience with the Swine Flu and assumign he'd learn, that's probably a good argument. I was talking more about facing a new, unprecedented situation. Based on their demonstrated competence at things like rolling out Obamacare, I wouldn't want them on their first crack at a pandemic with one like this but giving them the benefit of what utlimatley woudl look like a dry run, they hopefully would be better. Again, probably wouldn't make a huge difference as a lot of the responsibility lies with non-political appointees, but maybe marginally better.

But the thing is it's not a false narrative (even Fauci has said he wishes the team was in place), he learned, he put a team in place, he left that for every successive president, I'm sure trump was briefed on pandemic responses in the transition just like happens with every transition, and he decided it wasn't a real threat and worth the $$, so he cut it because somehow we've been at a point where "no government spending and tax cuts" constitutes a valid political position and receives praise. It shows no critical thinking at all because folks just wanna cut shit without knowing what that actually entails. I hope this ordeal wakes people up that parrot those lines as their politics.

The CDC handles studying and researching the virus itself, treatments and vaccines, not the logistics of ramping up emergency testing, emergency hospitals, supply chains for basic healthcare needs like masks and gloves, etc. we are doing it on the fly now and with a hodgepodge of plans of various effectiveness in different states that's going to be a problem in the short term (long term when things are stabilized, more localized plans make sense, but we are months from that). Fema handles natural disasters. The logistics handling a hurricane or earthquake aftermath ain't like handling a pandemic. So kindly stop peddling you "false narrative" false narrative about there being no loss of capabilities by cutting the team in charge of planning for and ensuring our capabilities. Of course they wouldn't have "prevented" anything. They would probably make some mistakes too, but it's better than what we have now where all we've done is make mistakes.

[hacker]

The reason is not that its a variant of the previous SARS that had 10% mortality

"From a taxonomic perspective, SARS-CoV-2 is classified as a strain of the species severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (SARSr-CoV)."

They're more like siblings though, you're technically right

[DownwardDawg]

[QUOTE=Commercecomet24;1238536]Anyone heard about refinery's shutting down and gas supplies being shut down due to the corona?[/QUOTE

If we see this, how do we know it's not part of an effort to prop up prices in the face of quickly declining consumption figures ? In this country always remember to follow the money first.

People need to stop believing that big oil is evil. The largest oil operators in the US are doing all they can right now to continue to produce and supply at a rate before this pandemic. It has taken over the industry. There are meetings nonstop all day to ensure that workers are kept healthy and production continues. Workers have volunteered to stay offshore for over a month at a time (for some) to eliminate new people flying to facilities. All this while losing money in the current oil price.

ETA: Not the workers losing money. They getting taken care of.

[Commercecomet24]

[QUOTE=Churchill;1238586]

People need to stop believing that big oil is evil. The largest oil operators in the US are doing all they can right now to continue to produce and supply at a rate before this pandemic. It has taken over the industry. There are meetings nonstop all day to ensure that workers are kept healthy and production continues. Workers have volunteered to stay offshore for over a month at a time (for some) to eliminate new people flying to facilities. All this while losing money in the current oil price.

ETA: Not the workers losing money. They getting taken care of.

Im with ya! I have a number of friend and family that work in various positions in the oil industry, on shore and offshore. They are all hard working, dedicated people.

[Johnson85]

But that's the thing, he learned, he put a team in place, he left that for every successive president, I'm sure trump was briefed on pandemic responses in the transition just like happens with every transition, and he decided it wasn't a real threat and worth the $$, so he cut it because somehow we've been at a point where "no government spending and tax cuts" constitutes a valid political position and receives praise. It shows no critical thinking at all because folks just wanna cut shit without knowing what that actually entails. I hope this ordeal wakes people up that parrot those lines as their politics.

He reorganized. That's not the same thing as cutting. The NSC isn't supposed to house all of your government response capabilities.

[Irondawg]

As with many things the President is prone to get way too much credit or blame for things simply because he's the guy in front of the microphone.

[Churchill]

[QUOTE=Churchill;1238586]

People need to stop believing that big oil is evil. The largest oil operators in the US are doing all they can right now to continue to produce and supply at a rate before this pandemic. It has taken over the industry. There are meetings nonstop all day to ensure that workers are kept healthy and production continues. Workers have volunteered to stay offshore for over a month at a time (for some) to eliminate new people flying to facilities. All this while losing money in the current oil price.

ETA: Not the workers losing money. They getting taken care of.

I was born into a family of independent business people. I am a capitalist and will die a capitalist. I've encouraged my children to do the same. I am not saying "big oil is evil" I am saying big oil is capitalistic. Capitalism is rough and tumble and has to deal with realities to be successful. During a time of historic reductions in consumption of gasoline I would have no problem AT ALL with cutting back production. Why wouldn't they ? I just don't think that throwing "oh my God our refineries are closing" into the coronavirus spiraling panic is a good thing right now.

[the_real_MSU_is_us]

You know, when I think about this long term I really don't see a way out of this. covid will never be eradicated, it's like the flu in that regard. So every year when the conditions are right it'll crop back up. And -just like with the flu- it'll keep mutating and vaccines won't be 100% effective.

It also appears that recovering from Covid doesn't give you any immunity to it, let alone future strains, and we know from SARS studies that antibodies for that wore off in about 3 years so it's likely to be true for this too.

So what we have is a population that can't build up true immunities, vaccines that can't stay ahead of the mutations, a virus that can't be removed from the world, that takes 1-2 weeks before symptoms appear (compared to 1-3 days for the flu), and is extremely deadly.

I think in 20 years we'll regard this outbreak as a changing point in humanity, like 9/11, or the end of WW2 setting up the cold war. Covid will be regarded like cancer, or car crashes; a deadly thing that could take anyone and we just have to live with it. As we expect old people might get cancer we will expect old people to be hospitalized by covid. It's the new reality

[deadheaddawg]

I wish you would take your own advice.

Except I'm not the one that is uniformed.

[chef dixon]

You know, when I think about this long term I really don't see a way out of this. covid will never be eradicated, it's like the flu in that regard. So every year when the conditions are right it'll crop back up. And -just like with the flu- it'll keep mutating and vaccines won't be 100% effective.

It also appears that recovering from Covid doesn't give you any immunity to it, let alone future strains, and we know from SARS studies that antibodies for that wore off in about 3 years so it's likely to be true for this too.

So what we have is a population that can't build up true immunities, vaccines that can't stay ahead of the mutations, a virus that can't be removed from the world, that takes 1-2 weeks before symptoms appear (compared to 1-3 days for the flu), and is extremely deadly.

I think in 20 years we'll regard this outbreak as a changing point in humanity, like 9/11, or the end of WW2 setting up the cold war. Covid will be regarded like cancer, or car crashes; a deadly thing that could take anyone and we just have to live with it. As we expect old people might get cancer we will expect old people to be hospitalized by covid. It's the new reality

Its to early to know, but there is no reason to believe you can be reinfected with COVID-19. Right now I wouldn't expect its overall life course to be much different than SARS.

[WeWonItAll(Most)]

You know, when I think about this long term I really don't see a way out of this. covid will never be eradicated, it's like the flu in that regard. So every year when the conditions are right it'll crop back up. And -just like with the flu- it'll keep mutating and vaccines won't be 100% effective.

It also appears that recovering from Covid doesn't give you any immunity to it, let alone future strains, and we know from SARS studies that antibodies for that wore off in about 3 years so it's likely to be true for this too.

So what we have is a population that can't build up true immunities, vaccines that can't stay ahead of the mutations, a virus that can't be removed from the world, that takes 1-2 weeks before symptoms appear (compared to 1-3 days for the flu), and is extremely deadly.

I think in 20 years we'll regard this outbreak as a changing point in humanity, like 9/11, or the end of WW2 setting up the cold war. Covid will be regarded like cancer, or car crashes; a deadly thing that could take anyone and we just have to live with it. As we expect old people might get cancer we will expect old people to be hospitalized by covid. It's the new reality

While viruses are notorious for mutating (hence the situation we're in now) the flu's ability to mutate is truly unique to the family of virus it belongs to, which makes comparing any non-flu virus to the flu very difficult. The mechanisms that it has to mutate makes rapidly mutating more of a rule of thumb for the flu rather than an exceptional outlying event (like COVID). So a vaccine will hopefully, and should be, much more effective for COVID than the seasonal flu.

With regards to antibodies, they are sort of like muscles. If you don't use them you lose them (which is why we have vaccines). According to my google search, there hasn't been a known transmission of SARS since 2004, so it only makes sense that we lose anti-SARS antibodies since the virus isn't moving through the population any longer. If this virus sticks around and doesn't significantly mutate we should be able to continue to mount antibody responses against it and eventually have more of a herd immunity against it. What gives me encouragement, without having done any research on the subject, is that SARS came and went without a vaccine or extreme measures (that I'm aware of). It didn't mutate again, which should definitely be encouraging with regards to this coronavirus, but it also seemingly wasn't as infectious.



For anyone interested, I linked a 3 minute Youtube video below explaining what makes the flu so erratic. What makes coronavirus different is it has positive RNA, which means its reliant on the host cell's enzymes to reproduce its genome. Unlike the flu's polymerase, host cell polymerase has a ton of "spellchecks" to ensure correct replication. Because whereas mutations are advantageous for virus, mutations in non-virus genomes are either silent or bad (cell death/cancer). Very, very rarely advantageous.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dUYIUFlsEJ8

[hacker]

1241049932569640960

Deaths have almost doubled from ~2100 to ~4000 in 4 days

[Johnson85]

But the thing is it's not a false narrative (even Fauci has said he wishes the team was in place), he learned, he put a team in place, he left that for every successive president, I'm sure trump was briefed on pandemic responses in the transition just like happens with every transition, and he decided it wasn't a real threat and worth the $$, so he cut it because somehow we've been at a point where "no government spending and tax cuts" constitutes a valid political position and receives praise. It shows no critical thinking at all because folks just wanna cut shit without knowing what that actually entails. I hope this ordeal wakes people up that parrot those lines as their politics.

The CDC handles studying and researching the virus itself, treatments and vaccines, not the logistics of ramping up emergency testing, emergency hospitals, supply chains for basic healthcare needs like masks and gloves, etc. we are doing it on the fly now and with a hodgepodge of plans of various effectiveness in different states that's going to be a problem in the short term (long term when things are stabilized, more localized plans make sense, but we are months from that). Fema handles natural disasters. The logistics handling a hurricane or earthquake aftermath ain't like handling a pandemic. So kindly stop peddling you "false narrative" false narrative about there being no loss of capabilities by cutting the team in charge of planning for and ensuring our capabilities. Of course they wouldn't have "prevented" anything. They would probably make some mistakes too, but it's better than what we have now where all we've done is make mistakes.

He did the same thing as the two presidents before him, which was move it from having the head of it as a directorate role to having the head of the pandemic response team report to a directorate. It doesn't really matter as long as the people running it are competent. I do suspect the last three presidents will be the last three to remove it as a directorate role for a long time.

[BrunswickDawg]

He reorganized. That's not the same thing as cutting. The NSC isn't supposed to house all of your government response capabilities.

That may be true - but what Obama did was take all of those parts spread between different agencies and elevate them in a single unit and put them at level where their warnings and capabilities would be recognized more easily by the real decision makers. What he did isn't very different then what B43 did to create DHS in the wake of 9/11. B43 recognized that having multiple units the way did allowed intel to get lost because agencies didn't share. Obama learned similar lessons from the 2 epidemics we didn't manage well. Fact is Bolton is more responsible probably than anyone in not recognizing why this was done and what could be at stake - he is the one that undid it.

[The Federalist Engineer]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETgIGYaXYAEJ-28?format=jpg&name=large

This graph has some big and invalidating variables:

(1) testing is not universal in methodology and universally valid China used a nucleic acid test and Iran has what test?
(2) the the lions share of the affected have no symptoms - so this is just a graph of symptoms and some type of test
(3) China claims they locked everything down to Wuhan - yet it?s everywhere
(4) 525M live in Hubei border states, the Chinese claim only 18 deaths in those border states. You believe that? That?s more people than all Europe

[PMDawg]

Yeah, I'd take the guy that cut the pandemic response team that Obama put into place over obama who had experience with the Ebola and MERS outbreaks elsewhere in the world under his administration, saw the threat, and put a team together to have logistics plans in place and ready to mobilize in these exact type scenarios. But maybe that's just my bias showing.

It definitely is your bias showing. H1N1 ring a bell?

[hacker]

This graph has some big and invalidating variables:

(1) testing is not universal in methodology and universally valid China used a nucleic acid test and Iran has what test?
(2) the the lions share of the affected have no symptoms - so this is just a graph of symptoms and some type of test
(3) China claims they locked everything down to Wuhan - yet it?s everywhere
(4) 525M live in Hubei border states, the Chinese claim only 18 deaths in those border states. You believe that? That?s more people than all Europe

You're obsessed with China. So you're saying they're worse off than we think they are? That's shitty for us.

I'm more concerned with our trajectory lining up with or even outpacing Italy.

[PMDawg]

But the thing is it's not a false narrative (even Fauci has said he wishes the team was in place), he learned, he put a team in place, he left that for every successive president, I'm sure trump was briefed on pandemic responses in the transition just like happens with every transition, and he decided it wasn't a real threat and worth the $$, so he cut it because somehow we've been at a point where "no government spending and tax cuts" constitutes a valid political position and receives praise. It shows no critical thinking at all because folks just wanna cut shit without knowing what that actually entails. I hope this ordeal wakes people up that parrot those lines as their politics.

The CDC handles studying and researching the virus itself, treatments and vaccines, not the logistics of ramping up emergency testing, emergency hospitals, supply chains for basic healthcare needs like masks and gloves, etc. we are doing it on the fly now and with a hodgepodge of plans of various effectiveness in different states that's going to be a problem in the short term (long term when things are stabilized, more localized plans make sense, but we are months from that). Fema handles natural disasters. The logistics handling a hurricane or earthquake aftermath ain't like handling a pandemic. So kindly stop peddling you "false narrative" false narrative about there being no loss of capabilities by cutting the team in charge of planning for and ensuring our capabilities. Of course they wouldn't have "prevented" anything. They would probably make some mistakes too, but it's better than what we have now where all we've done is make mistakes.

Look, if you're a liberal, you'll blame Trump. If you're a Conservative, you won't. And you'll repeat any lie or made up bit of information necessary to "prove" your side.

[msstate7]

Sps has a good thread on why Italy may be getting harder than most...

https://forums.sixpackspeak.com/showthread.php?210968-Italy&p=1745365#post1745365

[dawgs]

He reorganized. That's not the same thing as cutting. The NSC isn't supposed to house all of your government response capabilities.

Where did he reassign the team to report?

[dawgs]

It definitely is your bias showing. H1N1 ring a bell?

Do you remember the world shutting down over h1n1? Do you remember hospitals frantically building temporary facilities because they can't handle the number of patients? How many h1n1 patients died because they couldn't access healthcare? I get that people died, but the spread was slower and the people who were healthy could access treatment and survive. What's different here is we are looking at millions of people who could recover with proper care dying because they won't be able to access it.

[dawgs]

Look, if you're a liberal, you'll blame Trump. If you're a Conservative, you won't. And you'll repeat any lie or made up bit of information necessary to "prove" your side.

Why didn't he answer the question when asked why he cut the pandemic response team and explain how the same team was just moved to a different agency or reports to someone else is the of acting like he had no idea what people were talking about? Why has Fauci stated he'd love it if the pandemic response team was still around because they worked well together? Think critically for a ****ing minute.

[dawgday166]

Sps has a good thread on why Italy may be getting harder than most...

https://forums.sixpackspeak.com/showthread.php?210968-Italy&p=1745365#post1745365

So you're a fatass who is more susceptible? *****

[PMDawg]

Do you remember the world shutting down over h1n1? Do you remember hospitals frantically building temporary facilities because they can't handle the number of patients? How many h1n1 patients died because they couldn't access healthcare? I get that people died, but the spread was slower and the people who were healthy could access treatment and survive. What's different here is we are looking at millions of people who could recover with proper care dying because they won't be able to access it.

Yeah that's kind of the point. Nevermind. It's just really not worth it. People believe what they want to believe.

[msstate7]

So you're a fatass who is more susceptible? *****

We all are according to Johnson haha

[PMDawg]

Why didn't he answer the question when asked why he cut the pandemic response team and explain how the same team was just moved to a different agency or reports to someone else is the of acting like he had no idea what people were talking about? Why has Fauci stated he'd love it if the pandemic response team was still around because they worked well together? Think critically for a ****ing minute.

I think critically all day every day. It's what I do for a living. I don't need some dumb ass with half my brain power telling me how to think. Now, get back to proselytizing for your religion little man.

[dawgday166]

We all are according to Johnson haha

We doomed **

[Cooterpoot]

Just an FYI, just heard from FEMA and MEMA, the two week shutdown and fuel shortage is nothing but a hoax. So don't act a fool.

[Johnson85]

Why didn't he answer the question when asked why he cut the pandemic response team and explain how the same team was just moved to a different agency or reports to someone else is the of acting like he had no idea what people were talking about? Why has Fauci stated he'd love it if the pandemic response team was still around because they worked well together? Think critically for a ****ing minute.
He probably really didn't know what people were talking about. There was a consensus that the NSC ballooning from 100 to 400 was a mistake and it was too big. I'd guess Bolton presented the reorg to him, and he looked, saw it had nothing to do with trade/immigration/China/Mexico or his image and he said great and went back to tweeting.

[yjnkdawg]

Just an FYI, just heard from FEMA and MEMA, the two week shutdown and fuel shortage is nothing but a hoax. So don't act a fool.

Thanks for the info. Just what we needed some rumor going around like that when so many people apparently think the bread, canned goods, and paper manufacturers are going out of business. The Government would do anything within their power to prevent something like that from happening.

[The Federalist Engineer]

You're obsessed with China. So you're saying they're worse off than we think they are? That's shitty for us.

I'm more concerned with our trajectory lining up with or even outpacing Italy.

Italy is a very different culture than us and in the case of spreading virus, very unfortunate relative the USA

(1) Italian bars are tiny. They can touch 10 people where ever you stand...and they love those bars, its cultural.
(2) Italians eat family style at restaurants, frequently in close quarters
(3) They don't clean things the same way we do. A cold beer in Italy is not a cold beer to us, they only thing they make really Hot is coffee
(4) Work lunch is not dudes getting a burger at a drive through. They walk together and eat at cafeteria style small restaurants. Chatting and social.
(5) everything is old, we use lots more plastic cups, forks, and spoons. They use long term utensils
(6) just so happens that we have italian cold-chain companies on IOT devices, we know they don't use cold or hot like we do.
(7) big users of trains and public buses over there, personal cars are not the rule. parking and rent is expensive.

I could go on. Mississippi especially is not like Italy at all. The Bronx is sort-of like Italy, but not West Point, MS.

[Dawgology]

It also should be noted that Italy got destroyed by the seasonal flu in January. Almost half the country had it and many are still recovering. It was an epidemic all on its own that absolutely no one is talking about.

[hacker]

Italy is a very different culture than us and in the case of spreading virus, very unfortunate relative the USA

(1) Italian bars are tiny. They can touch 10 people where ever you stand...and they love those bars, its cultural.
(2) Italians eat family style at restaurants, frequently in close quarters
(3) They don't clean things the same way we do. A cold beer in Italy is not a cold beer to us, they only thing they make really Hot is coffee
(4) Work lunch is not dudes getting a burger at a drive through. They walk together and eat at cafeteria style small restaurants. Chatting and social.
(5) everything is old, we use lots more plastic cups, forks, and spoons. They use long term utensils
(6) just so happens that we have italian cold-chain companies on IOT devices, we know they don't use cold or hot like we do.
(7) big users of trains and public buses over there, personal cars are not the rule. parking and rent is expensive.

I could go on. Mississippi especially is not like Italy at all. The Bronx is sort-of like Italy, but not West Point, MS.

https://i.imgur.com/UsdhWyF.jpg

[StateDawg44]

https://i.imgur.com/UsdhWyF.jpg


Does the fact that we have over 5 times the population not factor into this graph for you?

[msstate7]

Does the fact that we have over 5 times the population not factor into this graph for you?

32x the size of Italy also

[hacker]

Does the fact that we have over 5 times the population not factor into this graph for you?

Do you understand exponential growth? We'll have 100k cases around March 30.

[StateDawg44]

Do you understand exponential growth? We'll have 100k cases around March 30.

Is that a fact?

[Todd4State]

32x the size of Italy also

US has around 387-390 million people and Italy has around 70 million.

What people need to look at is the mortality rate.

[Hot Rock]

I work for a large paper company, I mean HUUUGe one. We have been told that we are essential to society and must keep the paper / packaging and yes toilet tissue flowing or people wont' be getting anything anywhere.

If you ship it, you most likely need something to put it in and for goodness sake, people need toilet paper.

[The Federalist Engineer]

I work for a large paper company, I mean HUUUGe one. We have been told that we are essential to society and must keep the paper / packaging and yes toilet tissue flowing or people wont' be getting anything anywhere.

If you ship it, you most likely need something to put it in and for goodness sake, people need toilet paper.

Toilet paper people are great Americans - I certainly appreciate them

[Political Hack]

This thread is going to be go down the anals of history.

Yeah, it was intentional.

[Commercecomet24]

This thread is going to be go down the anals of history.

Yeah, it was intentional.

Rep Given!

[chef dixon]

Does the fact that we have over 5 times the population not factor into this graph for you?

Its still concerning no matter how you slice it. The point is, no matter how bad the virus itself actually gets it has already rocked our country, and it is just in the early stages.

If you play with the number of ICU beds and death toll in Italy, they are seeing close to 2 deaths per day right now just from COVID per 20 bed ICU. That's a scary thing to see play out. Even if we are half as affected as Italy its a mess from a medical stand point.

[Gutter Cobreh]

Not sure if someone has posted it yet, but below is a link to an interactive map showing cases worldwide.

If it has already been posted, my apologies for the duplicity.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

[dawgs]

For those claiming that we didn't panic about h1n1, well there's a good damn reason.

https ://www.google.com/amp/s/www.livescience.com/amp/covid-19-pandemic-vs-swine-flu.html (https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.livescience.com/amp/covid-19-pandemic-vs-swine-flu.html)

"In the U.S., between April 2009 and April 2010, the CDC estimates there were 60.8 million cases of swine flu, with over 274,000 hospitalizations and nearly 12,500 deaths — that's a mortality rate of about 0.02%."

Roughly 1/4864 Americans that contracted h1n1 required hospitalization and that was spread over ~1 year. Data says 1/5 people that contract covid-19 will require hospitalization. That's why we are responding differently. The math just isn't the same. I don't pretend to be a doctor that understand the science behind why one is worse than the other, but I do know how numbers work. Fauci could stand there and dryly lecture to us about the science behind it, but I don't need that to believe the math and probably wouldn't understand it anyway. And covid-19 is significantly more contagious on top of that, so the number of infected grows exponentially.

"The H1N1 flu was also less contagious than the novel coronavirus. The basic reproduction number, also called the R-nought value, is the expected number of individuals who can catch the virus from a single infected person. For the 2009 H1N1 virus, the mean R-nought value was 1.46, according to a review published in the journal BMC Infectious Diseases. For the novel coronavirus, the R-nought value is estimated to be between 2 and 2.5, at the moment."

in California alone show that without drastic measures, over 50% of the population of the state would have it within 2 months (25-26M people), so if 20% need hospitalization, that's over 5M people in 2 months in need of hospital care. No state could handle those numbers, so a lot more people would die from inadequate care.

For those that think this is all much ado about nothing, do y'all just not believe those numbers at all?

[WeWonItAll(Most)]

Its still concerning no matter how you slice it. The point is, no matter how bad the virus itself actually gets it has already rocked our country, and it is just in the early stages.

If you play with the number of ICU beds and death toll in Italy, they are seeing close to 2 deaths per day right now just from COVID per 20 bed ICU. That's a scary thing to see play out. Even if we are half as affected as Italy its a mess from a medical stand point.

Posted this on SPS, but we have 3x the critical care capacity than Italy does per capita. I assume that means things have to get a lot worse for us before we find ourselves in the position Italy is in.

https://sccm.org/sccm/media/main/United-States-Resource-Availablity-for-COVID-19-Fig1.jpg

[chef dixon]

Posted this on SPS, but we have 3x the critical care capacity than Italy does per capita. I assume that means things have to get a lot worse for us before we find ourselves in the position Italy is in.

https://sccm.org/sccm/media/main/United-States-Resource-Availablity-for-COVID-19-Fig1.jpg

Will certainly help. Its discouraging to see Italy continue to get worse but nothing here is apples to apples. There's just not enough known about it yet to predict this accurately in different environments.

[Johnson85]

https://i.imgur.com/UsdhWyF.jpg

I'm not sure you can take much from that b/c of our lack of testing. We probably are worse than we thought (or at least certainly worse than the testing shows) but at the same time, we'll probably show increase rate of growth even after we are bending the curve because of more availability of testing.

Italy may have similar issues, but I don't think you can assume it.

[defiantdog]

I understand the comparisons with Italy, but Germany and France seem to be keeping better containment. Maybe, just maybe, the numbers stop growing after we contain the majority of the population.

[DawgInMemphis]

I work for a large paper company, I mean HUUUGe one. We have been told that we are essential to society and must keep the paper / packaging and yes toilet tissue flowing or people wont' be getting anything anywhere.

If you ship it, you most likely need something to put it in and for goodness sake, people need toilet paper.

I work for a vendor that supports the paper industry. We are ramping up efforts to be able to better support our customers remotely so that you can keep cranking out pulp, packaging and towel at 100% capacity.

I remember the first time I saw a paper machine... pretty incredible manufacturing process.

[RocketDawg]

I work for a vendor that supports the paper industry. We are ramping up efforts to be able to better support our customers remotely so that you can keep cranking out pulp, packaging and towel at 100% capacity.

I remember the first time I saw a paper machine... pretty incredible manufacturing process.

I've seen it on "How It's Made" and yes, it really is a pretty incredible process. For that matter, the level of robotics in manufacturing just about anything is amazing.

[Todd4State]

Posted this on SPS, but we have 3x the critical care capacity than Italy does per capita. I assume that means things have to get a lot worse for us before we find ourselves in the position Italy is in.

https://sccm.org/sccm/media/main/United-States-Resource-Availablity-for-COVID-19-Fig1.jpg

The thing that people need to remember about critical care and ventilators is:

1. Not ALL patients with Coronavirus are going to have to be on a vent.

2. Many of those that do have to go onto a vent will also eventually come off of the vent.

[chef dixon]

The thing that people need to remember about critical care and ventilators is:

1. Not ALL patients with Coronavirus are going to have to be on a vent.

2. Many of those that do have to go onto a vent will also eventually come off of the vent.

That's true, but you have to assume each death tally ended on the ventilator (aside from a minority that are do not resuscitate), and in Italy's case that number is very significant.

[Todd4State]

That's true, but you have to assume each death tally ended on the ventilator (aside from a minority that are do not resuscitate), and in Italy's case that number is very significant.

Actually, you can't assume that. I've heard of people dying in their home.

[Dawgology]

I think a great sample population is the Diamond Princess cruise ship. We actually have both a numerator and a denominator in a confined population. There were about 3700 people on board that ship in a confined area for multiple weeks. All were tested (to my knowledge). Of those 3700, 712 contracted the virus and of those 712: 9 have died, 527 have recovered, and 14 are in critical condition. This complete sample population currently indicates a death rate if 1.2%. That could, of course, be adjusted depending on what happens with the remaining 177 cases. This also does not address underlying health conditions or approximate age.

[msstate7]

I think a great sample population is the Diamond Princess cruise ship. We actually have both a numerator and a denominator in a confined population. There were about 3700 people on board that ship in a confined area for multiple weeks. All were tested (to my knowledge). Of those 3700, 712 contracted the virus and of those 712: 9 have died, 527 have recovered, and 14 are in critical condition. This complete sample population currently indicates a death rate if 1.2%. That could, of course, be adjusted depending on what happens with the remaining 177 cases. This also does not address underlying health conditions or approximate age.

Great post.

[dantheman4248]

Is that a fact?

Is this another naysayer wanting to bet all his vcash on it?

My only hold up is that we don't have the test capabilities to get that much tested by then. But I no doubt believe there is 50k+ active cases currently.

[dantheman4248]

Just an FYI, just heard from FEMA and MEMA, the two week shutdown and fuel shortage is nothing but a hoax. So don't act a fool.

Same person that said South Korea had its first case 4+ months ahead of us. Take anything he says as utter trolling at this point, everyone. Ignore him and disregard. Do research outside of trusting in him.

[Political Hack]

Cruise ship population does not equate to general population. The most accurate estimates we have right now are not good. Most people still have no clue what they're about to witness across America.

[Cooterpoot]

Same person that said South Korea had its first case 4+ months ahead of us. Take anything he says as utter trolling at this point, everyone. Ignore him and disregard. Do research outside of trusting in him.

Bless your heart. By the way, MS has 2100 ventilators on the way. Masks on the way too but those are harder to get because NY, LA etc. get priority. Basically it's a numbers game via population.
Health Dept can handle 200 tests per day currently. The new fast track testing is about to take off.

[FriarsPoint]

Is this another naysayer wanting to bet all his vcash on it?

My only hold up is that we don't have the test capabilities to get that much tested by then. But I no doubt believe there is 50k+ active cases currently.

For sure. Just found out a nephew and cousin could have symptoms and my sister has to quarantine. And my next door neighbor nurse(yep, pharmacist on one side and nurse on the other) told me a doctor at the hospital here in little rural south Alabama is pretty sure he’s seen cases with it but couldn’t test and sent em home.

[chef dixon]

Mass testing is not as important now as it would have been weeks to months ago. Its widespread and in an alarming number of asymptomatic people now. People with symptoms that aren't sick enough to go to the hospital probably need to just self quarantine at this point. There are no validated treatments so a visit to a doctor and getting a confirmatory test are not necessary and just put yourself and others at risk.

[Cooterpoot]

Mass testing is not as important now as it would have been weeks to months ago. Its widespread and in an alarming number of asymptomatic people now. People with symptoms that aren't sick enough to go to the hospital probably need to just self quarantine at this point. There are no validated treatments so a visit to a doctor and getting a confirmatory test are not necessary and just put yourself and others at risk.

Nobody has to leave their cars on the fast track.

[Mjoelner34]

Nobody has to leave their cars on the fast track.
There is one waiting on FDA approval that is based on at-home diabetic testing and will produce results in 1 minute instead of having to wait on a lab.

[Cooterpoot]

There is one waiting on FDA approval that is based on at-home diabetic testing and will produce results in 1 minute instead of having to wait on a lab.

And it's not happening anytime soon

[Cowbell]

I understand the comparisons with Italy, but Germany and France seem to be keeping better containment. Maybe, just maybe, the numbers stop growing after we contain the majority of the population.

The problem is we haven't contained a large majority of the population. There are way too many people not taking the restrictions serious. We are relying on citizens good judgement in a time when a large percentage of our people don't possess that asset.

Another thing you guys arguing numbers need to understand. Because we have a larger population than Italy doesn't mean we have a smaller percentage infected. It means it will take longer to spread and infect since we are much larger in side and population.

And if you are discounting the affect on football season in the fall, you are much less concerned than the people who know the most about this disease.

And the oil situation is not a hoax. There is no current shortage and won't be a shortage. But there could be a delay in supply at some point due to logistics and those available to work. Just a possibility that I would prepare for if easy.

[Mjoelner34]

And it's not happening anytime soon

The FDA has eased regulations and started fast-tracking test development. This company is waiting on a final batch of tests from South Korea to present their case to the FDA. Should happen in the next week or 2.

[StateDawg44]

Is this another naysayer wanting to bet all his vcash on it?

My only hold up is that we don't have the test capabilities to get that much tested by then. But I no doubt believe there is 50k+ active cases currently.

First of all, what are you even suggesting a bet on? All that type of comment really proves is you are here to be able to try and tell someone ?I told you so? and to troll. Go **** yourself.

Second of all, I?ve done nothing but question certain stats and graphics that have been posted (like the one I was commenting about that you quoted). I consider that doing my due diligence and not lapping up every single thing I read. Especially considering the amount of misinformation that is out there and some of which has undoubtedly been posted in this thread as things develop. You won?t find anywhere that I?ve said all of this is a big nothing burger and not something to be concerned with. All I?ve done is asked people to verify stats or comments or called out pure speculation.

There is no one that knows anything factual about what?s to come and it?s still entirely too early for the US to call any sort of shot. Pretending like you can is purely speculative.

[dantheman4248]

First of all, what are you even suggesting a bet on? All that type of comment really proves is you are here to be able to try and tell someone ?I told you so? and to troll. Go **** yourself.

Second of all, I?ve done nothing but question certain stats and graphics that have been posted (like the one I was commenting about that you quoted). I consider that doing my due diligence and not lapping up every single thing I read. Especially considering the amount of misinformation that is out there and some of which has undoubtedly been posted in this thread as things develop. You won?t find anywhere that I?ve said all of this is a big nothing burger and not something to be concerned with. All I?ve done is asked people to verify stats or comments or called out pure speculation.

There is no one that knows anything factual about what?s to come and it?s still entirely too early for the US to call any sort of shot. Pretending like you can is purely speculative.


... it's not pure speculation. It's called math and viewing exponential trends. We went from 1k to 10k in less than 10 days. It's pretty spot on to think 100k is attainable in the next 10 days. This thing is spreading at an alarmingly exponential rate and our testing is only broadening to more cases. It's not even speculation it's "doing your due dilligence" and understanding trends.

[deadheaddawg]

It is NOT pure speculation.

[Matt3467]

Which country are you speaking of? I would agree that Taiwan (0.92%) and S. Korea (1.08%) have death rates that seem to be under control. But these three nations share a conviction that the People's Republic of China is not a friend and probably Taiwan (the Good Chinese people that FDR and Truman sold out) is especially careful of China. They are still on a war posture with China and/or the China satellite North Korea.

Other major free nations (Death rate %)....Germany (0.28%), UK (5.09%), Italy (8.29%), Spain (4.60%), Netherlands (3.08%), Canada (1.37%), Japan (3.49%), and France (3.37%). The US is 1.43%.

The other major issue is that each year there are 41M Americans traveling abroad. That's more people than Canada's entire population. Also the USA gets 3M visitors from China per year. Only Canadian and Mexican nationals visit the US more than Chinese nationals. US universities have 360K chinese students, Germany only has 36K. The US has more undocumented migrants than S Korea has people. The US also has the biggest companies in the world, you have legions of American expats working and traveling to china at any given moment.

I am not trying to be homer for any government official, the US actually is supposed to be a limited government society. So ordering and appropriating the supply chain of a particular industry is not the design of the US government, who owns the inventory and how do you account for the material? The mayor of New York, California Governor, US senators, and US presidents are not suppose issue directives to clinics, particular hospitals, or pharmacies. Even Martial Law and Curfew is going to get ACLU challenges before this is said and done. Then you have tort lawyers, that nobody else has on Earth. If a US test is 99.97% accurate and 8 people are false negative and they infect and kill a few people....that could destroy a company.


Those countries are 4+ months ahead of us. A Dr I work with at a hospital in MS said yesterday this is the single greatest response from government agencies he's ever seen as in his 40 years of providing medical care. Said the response from all levels has been fast and efficient.
We could've thrown together tests for this and it could've killed people. The government has done everything they can to assist the medical community.

Highly likely that people saying negative things about our country's response to the Chinese virus get their news from certain specific news outlets that are 24/7 critical of this President and his administration. I think he's done a fine job and to be honest I'm surprised we've been able to get anything done since literally everything the man wants to do is uniformly challenged by every democrat at all levels of government. I've never seen one side so out to get someone else in my life.

[starkvegasdawg]

There is one waiting on FDA approval that is based on at-home diabetic testing and will produce results in 1 minute instead of having to wait on a lab.

They need to approve that stat. I just saw how far back they go to test with the nasal swab. Any further and you risk brain damage. I'm certain Daryl has killed walkers without stabbing them that deeply.

[chef dixon]

I wouldn't doubt there are millions already with it. The rate celebs and sports players are testing positive all across the country without symptoms is kind of comical.

[turkish]

Highly likely that people saying negative things about our country's response to the Chinese virus get their news from certain specific news outlets that are 24/7 critical of this President and his administration. I think he's done a fine job and to be honest I'm surprised we've been able to get anything done since literally everything the man wants to do is uniformly challenged by every democrat at all levels of government. I've never seen one side so out to get someone else in my life.
The Great Oppurdemic

[hacker]

We tested around 35,000 people yesterday. A week ago we were testing about 5,000 per day. This is a good thing.

One thing to keep in mind as our testing capacity increases: the growth in the number of positive cases is not 100% indicative of the spread of the virus. It's a function of both the spread of the virus AND the increase in tests. I think the numbers will still be sobering though.

We do seem to be doing much better on our death rate than Italy, Spain, etc. It remains to be seen if that % will start to go up as the medical system gets stressed.

[turkish]

I have also noticed a favorable trend in US death rate stat compared to others. I hope and pray it is significant, but I know it is early.

[Cooterpoot]

The FDA has eased regulations and started fast-tracking test development. This company is waiting on a final batch of tests from South Korea to present their case to the FDA. Should happen in the next week or 2.

What I meant was it won't be available for months regardless. The peak will be hit before it's available. It'll be great in the future, but little help for this outbreak.

[The Federalist Engineer]

Germany has 20K infections but very few deaths

https://www.ft.com/content/c0755b30-69bb-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3

They are testing 160K per day that’s x10 what South Korea did

Other interesting discovery in Germany is that their infected are much younger than Italy

Other personal thought is that if you survived Hitler, WW2, and Russian occupation as a baby - you are probably too tough to kill by a damn chinese cold

[StateDawg44]

... it's not pure speculation. It's called math and viewing exponential trends. We went from 1k to 10k in less than 10 days. It's pretty spot on to think 100k is attainable in the next 10 days. This thing is spreading at an alarmingly exponential rate and our testing is only broadening to more cases. It's not even speculation it's "doing your due dilligence" and understanding trends.

Speculation - the forming of a theory or conjecture without firm evidence.


Yes TRENDS can be derived and predicted but they are still not always true. That number is certainly attainable. I don?t disagree but to act like it?s a guarantee and there is firm evidence to use this early is actually... speculating.




It is NOT pure speculation.

They may NOT be pure facts either. You are speculating just like I?m speculating. See how that works. But I damn sum at not claiming shit that can?t be proven right this second.

It?s a guess. There are too many variables for some of the numbers to not be off.

[Dawgology]

Cruise ship population does not equate to general population. The most accurate estimates we have right now are not good. Most people still have no clue what they're about to witness across America.

Well, sure. But Italy's population doesn't equate to the USA's or Germany's or us to theirs. What you do have with the cruise ship is a closed, controlled population that tracks spread and mortality rate within that controlled population. You will never be able to better account for variables in large, uncontrolled populations while this virus is actively spreading (at least not for the first year probably). The cruise ship gives us a good snapshot and I think it's strong statistical numbers. It's some sobering stats. If 19% of Americans got this virus that is 57,000,000 people who could get this and if the mortality rate stays at around 1.2% that is 684,000. If it rises to 3% then you are looking at approximate 1.7 million deaths.

[WeWonItAll(Most)]

Germany has 20K infections but very few deaths

https://www.ft.com/content/c0755b30-69bb-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3

They are testing 160K per day that?s x10 what South Korea did

Other interesting discovery in Germany is that their infected are much younger than Italy

Other personal thought is that if you survived Hitler, WW2, and Russian occupation as a baby - you are probably too tough to kill by a damn chinese cold

I was coming on here to ask what the difference is between Germany and Spain. Similar number of cases, but Spain is floating around 5.5% mortality and Germany is at 0.3%. Is it because Germany is catching more mild cases due to more testing? The only other thing I see off the top is that Germany has a critical care capacity that is similar to ours, while Spain's is even smaller than Italy. I would also guess that Germany has a higher quality medical system than Spain, but I have nothing to back that up.

ETA: Spain has 9.7 critical care units/100,000 people. So I assume I can say 97/1,000,000? and currently has 533 cases/1,000,000

Germany has 292 CCUs/1,000,000 and only 256 cases/1,000,000 with more prevalent testing by the sounds of things, which would make a lower % of the 256/mil severe.

So maybe Spain has blown past its critical care ability already and Germany is still under control.

[hacker]

140 cases in MS. Up from 80 yesterday.

They added some more data:

At least 24% hospitalized

48% of cases < 50 years old

https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/images/graphics/covid19-chart-age.png

https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/images/graphics/covid19-chart-onset.png

https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/images/graphics/covid19-chart-hospitalized.png

[Liverpooldawg]

Well, sure. But Italy's population doesn't equate to the USA's or Germany's or us to theirs. What you do have with the cruise ship is a closed, controlled population that tracks spread and mortality rate within that controlled population. You will never be able to better account for variables in large, uncontrolled populations while this virus is actively spreading (at least not for the first year probably). The cruise ship gives us a good snapshot and I think it's strong statistical numbers. It's some sobering stats. If 19% of Americans got this virus that is 57,000,000 people who could get this and if the mortality rate stays at around 1.2% that is 684,000. If it rises to 3% then you are looking at approximate 1.7 million deaths.

If you are talking about the ship in Japan yes it is a controlled population. One thing though, have you ever been on an overseas cruise? The average age on those is usually over 70.

[msstate7]

140 cases in MS. Up from 80 yesterday.

They added some more data:

At least 24% hospitalized

48% of cases < 50 years old

https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/images/graphics/covid19-chart-age.png

https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/images/graphics/covid19-chart-onset.png

https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/images/graphics/covid19-chart-hospitalized.png

Why do they stop there? What are the ages of the ones that are in hospital? Of the young (<50), what % are considered serious? Wish they'd release more

[yjnkdawg]

This seems to be a good article to read. At least Brit Hume, of Fox News, thinks so and others who have retweeted it.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

[msstate7]

This seems to be a good article to read. At least Brit Hume, of Fox News, thinks so and others who have retweeted it.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Good read. Thanks

[shoeless joe]

140 cases in MS. Up from 80 yesterday.

They added some more data:

At least 24% hospitalized

48% of cases < 50 years old

https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/images/graphics/covid19-chart-age.png

https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/images/graphics/covid19-chart-onset.png

https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/images/graphics/covid19-chart-hospitalized.png

Expected increase with increased testing. And as has been said many more have it or have had it. Prolly has something to do with the increased percentage of 50+. Younger folks haven?t had to go to the dr with it as often.

[StateDawg44]

... it's not pure speculation. It's called math and viewing exponential trends. We went from 1k to 10k in less than 10 days. It's pretty spot on to think 100k is attainable in the next 10 days. This thing is spreading at an alarmingly exponential rate and our testing is only broadening to more cases. It's not even speculation it's "doing your due dilligence" and understanding trends.


This seems to be a good article to read. At least Brit Hume, of Fox News, thinks so and others who have retweeted it.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894


Where are the cherry picked stats that only favor one side of the argument?***


Just kidding. Good read for sure.

[The Federalist Engineer]

I was coming on here to ask what the difference is between Germany and Spain. Similar number of cases, but Spain is floating around 5.5% mortality and Germany is at 0.3%. Is it because Germany is catching more mild cases due to more testing? The only other thing I see off the top is that Germany has a critical care capacity that is similar to ours, while Spain's is even smaller than Italy. I would also guess that Germany has a higher quality medical system than Spain, but I have nothing to back that up.

ETA: Spain has 9.7 critical care units/100,000 people. So I assume I can say 97/1,000,000? and currently has 533 cases/1,000,000

Germany has 292 CCUs/1,000,000 and only 256 cases/1,000,000 with more prevalent testing by the sounds of things, which would make a lower % of the 256/mil severe.

So maybe Spain has blown past its critical care ability already and Germany is still under control.

Something very positive about the Germany approach is that testing so many, especially young bucks that would normally be symptomless carriers - takes potential super spreaders out of the equation.

Holding everything else constant- that’s an interesting wrinkle

[KOdawg1]

This seems to be a good article to read. At least Brit Hume, of Fox News, thinks so and others who have retweeted it.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Fantastic article

[turkish]

This seems to be a good article to read. At least Brit Hume, of Fox News, thinks so and others who have retweeted it.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894
No prayers for that guy?s loved ones!*

[dawgday166]

This seems to be a good article to read. At least Brit Hume, of Fox News, thinks so and others who have retweeted it.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Really good read. I been thinking some of the same things written in this article, as I'm sure others have too. And anyone claiming absolute knowledge of all the wealth of data out there is a fool. Unless every single person is tested, there are not absolute stats.

And if the government really wanted to help folks while they ain't working, they would make a temp law to suspend loan/mortgage payments and interest on principle for a while. But they don't want the big bankers to have to survive on less than multi-million dollar bonuses each year. Those banks are still gonna expect those payments to be made up somehow ... I can guarantee you that.

In the meantime, 4 republican Senators and Feinstein got out of the market well in advance of the crash and made millions.

[dantheman4248]

Speculation - the forming of a theory or conjecture without firm evidence.


Yes TRENDS can be derived and predicted but they are still not always true. That number is certainly attainable. I don?t disagree but to act like it?s a guarantee and there is firm evidence to use this early is actually... speculating.





They may NOT be pure facts either. You are speculating just like I?m speculating. See how that works. But I damn sum at not claiming shit that can?t be proven right this second.

It?s a guess. There are too many variables for some of the numbers to not be off.

Firm evidence. My evidence is previous countries responses to the outbreak, how the virus spread there. Our severely underwhelming response. How the virus has now spread to several hotspots. New York is up to 10k cases and we can only test 35k a week. There's like 20 million in that metro area... safe to say there's plenty of room left to grow.

Everything we're basing the numbers on are facts. The only way we aren't at 100k positive by the end of the month is if our testing abilities don't drastically increase.

Your last statement is you trying to be smart but failing to understand how statistics work. Yes, there are a lot of variables in play, that much is true. But we didn't say exactly 100k cases. We said more than 100k. And all those variables at play (except one) point to us easily clearing that mark. The one that doesn't is the one I made mention in my first post at you. That our lack of testing would not reveal properly.

[dawgday166]

If you are talking about the ship in Japan yes it is a controlled population. One thing though, have you ever been on an overseas cruise? The average age on those is usually over 70.

If that is the case for this particular cruise, then that is actually an even more positive sign IMO.

[dawgday166]

Firm evidence. My evidence is previous countries responses to the outbreak, how the virus spread there. Our severely underwhelming response. How the virus has now spread to several hotspots. New York is up to 10k cases and we can only test 35k a week. There's like 20 million in that metro area... safe to say there's plenty of room left to grow.

Everything we're basing the numbers on are facts. The only way we aren't at 100k positive by the end of the month is if our testing abilities don't drastically increase.

Your last statement is you trying to be smart but failing to understand how statistics work. Yes, there are a lot of variables in play, that much is true. But we didn't say exactly 100k cases. We said more than 100k. And all those variables at play (except one) point to us easily clearing that mark. The one that doesn't is the one I made mention in my first post at you. That our lack of testing would not reveal properly.

You a stats guy huh? Didn't you predict 11 wins last year and Tommy better than Dak. Your track record ain't so hot so far.

[BulldogDX55]

You a stats guy huh? Didn't you predict 11 wins last year and Tommy better than Dak. Your track record ain't so hot so far.

Gosh. Better reject all facts and statistics then.

[dawgday166]

Gosh. Better reject all facts and statistics then.

My point is all the facts and statistics aren't in yet. And also giving Dano a hard time for giving so many others a hard time.

As more people get tested, the total cases will rise quite significantly. And if people that don't have severe symptoms don't get tested, then the true numbers aren't there to analyze.

[dantheman4248]

You a stats guy huh? Didn't you predict 11 wins last year and Tommy better than Dak. Your track record ain't so hot so far.

For posterity for other posters who will likely pile on. My model had 8 wins. Tennessee and Kansas State were the two I had wrong. I guessed 11 wins in a contest to come up with a unique answer. Apparently this makes me bad at statistics.

Tell me, has anyone else here been employed by Mississippi State to teach statistics or is it just me?

[dantheman4248]

This seems to be a good article to read. At least Brit Hume, of Fox News, thinks so and others who have retweeted it.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Not sure I read the same article as everyone else here. Started bad and participated in bad faith with his stats.

I'll roll from the top. 13% of Americans having it is mathematically impossible. A disease that can show no symptoms spreading like wildfire in a country that has minimal testing relative to its population. Mathematically impossible.

Total cases are the wrong metric. Wholeheartedly agree here. That's obvious. And it also works both ways. The red circle map is a bad map (this is where I'm assuming most, not all stopped and praised this a good article. He makes an excellent point in his first statement, then rolls downhill from there. No need to read the rest.)

Time lapsing... literally proves his bad faith statistics by posting a graph from a week ago and not updating it in either of his daily updates any day since. It's been posted in this thread I'm fairly certain here. He can absolutely update that graph. It's a troubling one that doesn't fit the narrative he wants though.

Per Capita brings up a good point that he misinterpreted the wrong way. As this virus has made it to everywhere in the country at this point, it should show the room for growth. China culled it by isolating wuhan province and keeping everyone out. The best two case studies of end numbers are Wuhan's per capita infection and Italy's per capita infection. That means we are looking at another magnitude of 10-fold increase. And that's the maximum if we end up shutting shit down properly when that happens. We don't have a case with heavy spread where it wasn't massively shutdown.

Talking about the Bell Curve with China and S. Korea. Those are very encouraging metrics. Makes me want to do what those two did. The Italy metric has not been updated. I wonder why?

I'm stopping here because it's not worth reading anymore of this. I really don't want to have the argument again about how summer heat will not kill this when we can't know for sure because no way in hell africa has proper testing. Especially when they have a different biblical plague going on with the swarms of locusts.


So yea, he made a solid point that certain metrics are designed to scare. That red circle map is bad. I agree. Other than that, not so good. Let me know if he updates the metrics that will go against his narrative in that article. Then I would be more inclined to read the rest of what I'm sure is the same schlock for the rest of the 20 ish things in his table of contents.

[BeardoMSU]

Gosh. Better reject all facts and statistics then.

https://media2.giphy.com/media/PQy7AmbTDRvfW/source.gif

[dantheman4248]

My point is all the facts and statistics aren't in yet. And also giving Dano a hard time for giving so many others a hard time.

As more people get tested, the total cases will rise quite significantly. And if people that don't have severe symptoms don't get tested, then the true numbers aren't there to analyze.

Ehh. Bad time to make jokes like that imo. If it was sports related, sure. This is a whole other animal. And of course a lot of stats aren't in yet. But looking at the "why" can point you in the right directions. Or as another poster put it, doing your due diligence.

[yjnkdawg]

Really good read. I been thinking some of the same things written in this article, as I'm sure others have too. And anyone claiming absolute knowledge of all the wealth of data out there is a fool. Unless every single person is tested, there are not absolute stats.

And if the government really wanted to help folks while they ain't working, they would make a temp law to suspend loan/mortgage payments and interest on principle for a while. But they don't want the big bankers to have to survive on less than multi-million dollar bonuses each year. Those banks are still gonna expect those payments to be made up somehow ... I can guarantee you that.

In the meantime, 4 republican Senators and Feinstein got out of the market well in advance of the crash and made millions.




And if people don't think that there are some in the US who are glad that we are in a chaotic and panic mode (even due to a pandemic health crisis), and also that it was announced that the stock market had lost all gains under the current administration, then those people don't know what reality is.

[yjnkdawg]

Not sure I read the same article as everyone else here. Started bad and participated in bad faith with his stats.

I'll roll from the top. 13% of Americans having it is mathematically impossible. A disease that can show no symptoms spreading like wildfire in a country that has minimal testing relative to its population. Mathematically impossible.

Total cases are the wrong metric. Wholeheartedly agree here. That's obvious. And it also works both ways. The red circle map is a bad map (this is where I'm assuming most, not all stopped and praised this a good article. He makes an excellent point in his first statement, then rolls downhill from there. No need to read the rest.)

Time lapsing... literally proves his bad faith statistics by posting a graph from a week ago and not updating it in either of his daily updates any day since. It's been posted in this thread I'm fairly certain here. He can absolutely update that graph. It's a troubling one that doesn't fit the narrative he wants though.

Per Capita brings up a good point that he misinterpreted the wrong way. As this virus has made it to everywhere in the country at this point, it should show the room for growth. China culled it by isolating wuhan province and keeping everyone out. The best two case studies of end numbers are Wuhan's per capita infection and Italy's per capita infection. That means we are looking at another magnitude of 10-fold increase. And that's the maximum if we end up shutting shit down properly when that happens. We don't have a case with heavy spread where it wasn't massively shutdown.

Talking about the Bell Curve with China and S. Korea. Those are very encouraging metrics. Makes me want to do what those two did. The Italy metric has not been updated. I wonder why?

I'm stopping here because it's not worth reading anymore of this. I really don't want to have the argument again about how summer heat will not kill this when we can't know for sure because no way in hell africa has proper testing. Especially when they have a different biblical plague going on with the swarms of locusts.


So yea, he made a solid point that certain metrics are designed to scare. That red circle map is bad. I agree. Other than that, not so good. Let me know if he updates the metrics that will go against his narrative in that article. Then I would be more inclined to read the rest of what I'm sure is the same schlock for the rest of the 20 ish things in his table of contents.

Glad you enjoyed the article.***

[dawgday166]

Ehh. Bad time to make jokes like that imo. If it was sports related, sure. This is a whole other animal. And of course a lot of stats aren't in yet. But looking at the "why" can point you in the right directions. Or as another poster put it, doing your due diligence.

I was trying to lighten up the fact that you and deadhead are bashing a lot of folks if they think differently than you. And a lot of it is still conjecture. And the stats primarily show this affects older people. Now I have compassion for older people but what about those young folks that won't be able to put a roof over their heads or feed their kids cause of this. Is there no compassion for them? And I can just about guarantee you they will absorb the brunt of this.

My main point is most of us don't have the answers, we just have opinions. And that includes you.

[dantheman4248]

Glad you enjoyed the article.***

No rebuffing anything I said? I took the time to state why I think it's a bad article rather than making a snarky short reply. Why not respond in kind telling me, if where, I'm wrong. I'm here to have discourse and learn. Be that I learn, or someone else learns.

Snarky replies like this tell me you shared this to pad your view and accepted only what you wanted to see. That's a major problem with America. Too many people set in their ways no willing to even entertain someone arguing the opposite side could be right. I'm here to listen if you can make good points. That article even had a solid point and I do agree that there overall is some people in power wanting to fear monger and drive hysteria up. They don't care about the american people, just their checkbook and their power. And that's not party exclusive.

[BeardoMSU]

And if people don't think that there are some in the US who are glad that we are in a chaotic and panic mode (even due to a pandemic health crisis), and also that it was announced that the stock market had lost all gains under the current administration, then those people don't know what reality is.

I guess this would be the first time in human history we discovered the existence of a few assholes...**

[dantheman4248]

I was trying to lighten up the fact that you and deadhead are bashing a lot of folks if they think differently than you. And a lot of it is still conjecture. And the stats primarily show this affects older people. Now I have compassion for older people but what about those young folks that won't be able to put a roof over their heads or feed their kids cause of this. Is there no compassion for them? And I can just about guarantee you they will absorb the brunt of this.

My main point is most of us don't have the answers, we just have opinions. And that includes you.


I know I'm being crass but it's been painfully obvious where this pandemic was going since the start of the month. I would have hoped that the market crash day would have shown the light to people but apparently it doesn't.

I'll be honest, as this continues to progress my thoughts on our response have evolved. We've let it get too far gone. I thought a quick 14 day countrywide quarantine with a check for everyone would have been the most effective culling. Now that that is basically impossible and the virus is already spread so wide, it is hard to think that quarantining is the route that is going to save the most lives. Push comes to shove we're about to unmask just how bad our economy is if we really keep what we have currently through the start of April with no stimulus package for poor people.

Then it becomes a choice of as you said, between poor people and old people. Hard choice. It shouldn't have gotten to here and that's part of my anger, but we could be at the point already where continuing to semi-quarantine is not the best choice for Americans as a whole going forward. And then my fear is that the sunk cost of semi-quarantining will be used as a reason to keep going. It's not a good proposition at all.

[msstate7]

Not sure I read the same article as everyone else here. Started bad and participated in bad faith with his stats.

I'll roll from the top. 13% of Americans having it is mathematically impossible. A disease that can show no symptoms spreading like wildfire in a country that has minimal testing relative to its population. Mathematically impossible.

Total cases are the wrong metric. Wholeheartedly agree here. That's obvious. And it also works both ways. The red circle map is a bad map (this is where I'm assuming most, not all stopped and praised this a good article. He makes an excellent point in his first statement, then rolls downhill from there. No need to read the rest.)

Time lapsing... literally proves his bad faith statistics by posting a graph from a week ago and not updating it in either of his daily updates any day since. It's been posted in this thread I'm fairly certain here. He can absolutely update that graph. It's a troubling one that doesn't fit the narrative he wants though.

Per Capita brings up a good point that he misinterpreted the wrong way. As this virus has made it to everywhere in the country at this point, it should show the room for growth. China culled it by isolating wuhan province and keeping everyone out. The best two case studies of end numbers are Wuhan's per capita infection and Italy's per capita infection. That means we are looking at another magnitude of 10-fold increase. And that's the maximum if we end up shutting shit down properly when that happens. We don't have a case with heavy spread where it wasn't massively shutdown.

Talking about the Bell Curve with China and S. Korea. Those are very encouraging metrics. Makes me want to do what those two did. The Italy metric has not been updated. I wonder why?

I'm stopping here because it's not worth reading anymore of this. I really don't want to have the argument again about how summer heat will not kill this when we can't know for sure because no way in hell africa has proper testing. Especially when they have a different biblical plague going on with the swarms of locusts.


So yea, he made a solid point that certain metrics are designed to scare. That red circle map is bad. I agree. Other than that, not so good. Let me know if he updates the metrics that will go against his narrative in that article. Then I would be more inclined to read the rest of what I'm sure is the same schlock for the rest of the 20 ish things in his table of contents.

13% May not be impossible, but it's very, very unlikely imo. Let's look at the most infected country in the world, Italy. Currently, they're infected at 886 cases per million, 0.09%. To get to 13% there, they'd have to be infected at 146.7 times where they are now, 130,000 cases per million. Currently, we sit at 69 cases per million, 0.007%. Now this is wrong, but it would have to be at 1884 times worse than current reported to be at 13% infection rate. What's your prediction for when it's all said and done?

[confucius say]

What do you think the actual death rate is considering the lack of testing? .25%ish?

[starkvegasdawg]

Meanwhile, at the Tupelo flea market...

3170

[BeardoMSU]

Meanwhile, at the Tupelo flea market...

3170

So much for the safety of rural living....for ****s sake, people.

[dantheman4248]

13% May not be impossible, but it's very, very unlikely imo. Let's look at the most infected country in the world, Italy. Currently, they're infected at 886 cases per million, 0.09%. To get to 13% there, they'd have to be infected at 146.7 times where they are now, 130,000 cases per million. Currently, we sit at 69 cases per million, 0.007%. Now this is wrong, but it would have to be at 1884 times worse than current reported to be at 13% infection rate. What's your prediction for when it's all said and done?

Hard to make a prediction THAT far out. That's trying to project A. our ever changing response and B. multiple months down the road once we can see where the bell curve hits in a country that's not doing near what it should to cull it. Assuming that we do what America / our leadership does, I think our self quarantining will inevitably fail and people will go back to work because they need money. This will cause a bigger spread than most every other country. How that projects out is unclear. It's not unreasonable to see where by the end of the calendar year we've had 10+% of the country infected with it. From that percentage I'd also guesstimate about average death rate. (Which so far looks to be 10% of closed (recovered or dead) cases. I'd adjust that down to at most 5% due to just guestimating that half of the people who want to get tested are turned away.) In fact I think that 10% itself goes down by at least half as we make more progress. So we'll say 2% to be conservative. So taking a conservative shot of 10% infected and 2% death rate, that projects to 650k deaths in America. I'd be predicting more conservatively here, so my final guess would be about 500k deaths in America. But that's a very rough estimate.

Now I could be (and hope) wrong about our response, but we've missed our window to cull this. We've missed it badly. I don't see us going on pause for more than 2 months. It's simply not viable. Not without universal basic income which it seems we have decided to "fix" the initial idea and make it absolutely worse. So yea, another not good signal that we're gonna botch this.

It's crazy. Should have never gotten to this point. Should have shut down the borders earlier and had rigorous testing and quarantining. That can't be forgotten when this is all over. But for now we need to come together and start making smart decisions. Injecting $2k into every american home is a smart decision. Fiddling with it, lowering it, and scaling it to give poor people EVEN LESS is a totally bad idea. How this is even in discussion let alone actually going to happen is beyond comprehension.

[starkvegasdawg]

So much for the safety of rural living....for ****s sake, people.

Little more info on this pic. It was a pre-scheduled auction. Since they were obvious window licking stupid and didn't shut it down themselves, the mayor of Tupelo signed an executive order banning all groups over 50 and shut it down. He then made a very good point that he's now having to act at a city level because tater tot doesn't seem interested in acting at a state level beyond schools.

[BeardoMSU]

Little more info on this pic. It was a pre-scheduled auction. Since they were obvious window licking stupid and didn't shut it down themselves, the mayor of Tupelo signed an executive order banning all groups over 50 and shut it down. He then made a very good point that he's now having to act at a city level because tater tot doesn't seem interested in acting at a state level beyond schools.

Wow. Thanks for the background, dude.

[BulldogDX55]

https://i.imgur.com/fYs08iG.png

Just some updated corona numbers - third column is Georgia because that's where I am.

[confucius say]

Hard to make a prediction THAT far out. That's trying to project A. our ever changing response and B. multiple months down the road once we can see where the bell curve hits in a country that's not doing near what it should to cull it. Assuming that we do what America / our leadership does, I think our self quarantining will inevitably fail and people will go back to work because they need money. This will cause a bigger spread than most every other country. How that projects out is unclear. It's not unreasonable to see where by the end of the calendar year we've had 10+% of the country infected with it. From that percentage I'd also guesstimate about average death rate. (Which so far looks to be 10% of closed (recovered or dead) cases. I'd adjust that down to at most 5% due to just guestimating that half of the people who want to get tested are turned away.) In fact I think that 10% itself goes down by at least half as we make more progress. So we'll say 2% to be conservative. So taking a conservative shot of 10% infected and 2% death rate, that projects to 650k deaths in America. I'd be predicting more conservatively here, so my final guess would be about 500k deaths in America. But that's a very rough estimate.

Now I could be (and hope) wrong about our response, but we've missed our window to cull this. We've missed it badly. I don't see us going on pause for more than 2 months. It's simply not viable. Not without universal basic income which it seems we have decided to "fix" the initial idea and make it absolutely worse. So yea, another not good signal that we're gonna botch this.

It's crazy. Should have never gotten to this point. Should have shut down the borders earlier and had rigorous testing and quarantining. That can't be forgotten when this is all over. But for now we need to come together and start making smart decisions. Injecting $2k into every american home is a smart decision. Fiddling with it, lowering it, and scaling it to give poor people EVEN LESS is a totally bad idea. How this is even in discussion let alone actually going to happen is beyond comprehension.

Where are you getting a 2% death rate?

[hacker]

Let's not pretend this only affects old people. A couple younger deaths in NOLA today:

44 year old man
https://www.billboard.com/articles/news/obituary/9339923/new-orleans-bounce-dj-black-n-mild-dead-coronavirus

39 year old woman
https://www.nola.com/news/coronavirus/article_bdc4e802-6b90-11ea-a747-832e94bc7f56.html

[Todd4State]

Where are you getting a 2% death rate?

Much more likely to be at 1% based on most studies.

[dantheman4248]

Where are you getting a 2% death rate?

I literally broke it down in my post...

About 10% of Closed cases have closed with death. You can't look at the death rate as dead / infected. Some of those still might die. So from that 10% I assumed that roughly 50% of people requesting testing that actually have the virus are turned down. Knocked it down to 5%. I also think that as we naturally get better at best methods to fight this disease, that percentage gets cut in half at minimum. So that's 2.5% and I took another .5% off to be more conservative. That's 2%.


Currently the world has ~95k recovered cases and ~13k deaths. That suggests 12% of closed cases end with death. Sobering statistic.

[Liverpooldawg]

https://i.imgur.com/fYs08iG.png

Just some updated corona numbers - third column is Georgia because that's where I am.

You do know we have 5 1/2 times the population of Italy, right?

[hacker]

About 10% of Closed cases have closed with death.

It's up to 12% now according to worldometer, up from 10% the other day.

Yet the article that everyone is praising says fatality rates are declining.

[dantheman4248]

You do know we have 5 1/2 times the population of Italy, right?

Italy also has 1/30 the space of us. So even in an area that in 5 times more sparsely populated we are still accelerating at a higher rate.


Neither one of our metrics tell near enough of the story there to reasonably be relied on.