The Covid-19 Info thread (keep politics out please)

[BeardoMSU]

Can't wait til Biden saves us from it all.....

Yeah, doubling down is the much wiser decision**

I assume this is your strategy at the tables, lol...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b6_IZK-1naY

[Homedawg]

Yeah, doubling down is the much wiser decision**

I assume this is your strategy at the tables, lol...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b6_IZK-1naY

Well considering the guy can't say a sentence, bad or good, he should be perfect.

[Irondawg]

So what exactly has the EU done that we haven’t that has their numbers low? I haven’t followed them much at all

[Todd4State]

Magically? Go back in time and take it seriously from the beginning. Do what the other first world countries did. Don't have the leader of the country telling people it's a hoax.

Realistically? I mean, I'm pretty sure we're ****ed at this point. There's a huge portion of the population that isn't going to take it seriously until it affects them personally because of all the mixed messages and misinformation coming from leadership.

It would help if the media didn't spread misinformation and fear as well. No telling how many people died because they questioned drugs that helped. It's sad when hospitals have to keep things quiet so people won't die because of the media.

And no criticism for the man advising the President Dr. Fraudci? He deserves some of the blame for being wishy washy and basically being wrong 90% of the time.

[KOdawg1]

It's amazing how many people get excited and giddy over bad news just because it fits a narrative.

[BeardoMSU]

It's amazing how many people get excited and giddy over bad news just because it fits a narrative.

Jesus. It's not about being "giddy" about bad news, its about not sticking your ****ing head in the sand because you "wish" the news was good.

[Liverpooldawg]

So what exactly has the EU done that we haven’t that has their numbers low? I haven’t followed them much at all

Their lockdowns had teeth and lasted longer.

[Liverpooldawg]

Jesus. It's not about being "giddy" about bad news, its about not sticking your ****ing head in the sand because you "wish" the news was good.

Yep

[dawgday166]

Their lockdowns had teeth and lasted longer.

Yep. Communist regimes usually are exceptional at "displaying teeth while locking down" a populace. Kudos to them ... Comrade.

[AROB44]

Yep. Communist regimes usually are exceptional at "displaying teeth while locking down" a populace. Kudos to them ... Comrade.

I'm lost here. Which governments in the EU are communist?

[Dawgfan77]

Their lockdowns had teeth and lasted longer.

I need a link.... oh wait

[dawgday166]

I'm lost here. Which governments in the EU are communist?

I was just kidding. But most lean towards a high degree of socialism.

[confucius say]

For anybody who wants positive news, deaths fell again this week on the 7 day rolling average.

Cases have spiked for 20 days now, and deaths have not spiked, not maintained, but fell! We are well past the cytokine storm (sp?) time lag for thousands and thousands of cases with no uptick in deaths. It's amazing.

I have to feel like there will be at least a maintaining of deaths if not a slight increase soon just from the number of cases though.

[Cowbell]

For anybody who wants positive news, deaths fell again this week on the 7 day rolling average.

Cases have spiked for 20 days now, and deaths have not spiked, not maintained, but fell! We are well past the cytokine storm (sp?) time lag for thousands and thousands of cases with no uptick in deaths. It's amazing.

I have to feel like there will be at least a maintaining of deaths if not a slight increase soon just from the number of cases though.

The other good news Is our economy hasn't crashed yet. If we were still under lockdown at this point, a majority of small town businesses would have went under and we would be in a mess that we couldn't get out of. Of course that is what some want.

[Dawgfan77]

How dare you bring positive news to this thread..... I hope all those hold up in their bunkers have enough supplies while they watch CNN..... 99% survival rate is just not enough....

[hacker]

How dare you bring positive news to this thread..... I hope all those hold up in their bunkers have enough supplies while they watch CNN..... 99% survival rate is just not enough....

Rephrasing your "99% survival rate," you have a 1 in 100 chance of dying when you catch this virus.

You have about a 1 in 45000 chance of being killed by a terrorist, but I bet you've freaked out about that shit.

[msstate7]

If the CDC's estimated case total is correct, the death would be .004 (1/250 cases). I have a hard time seeing where they can estimate 30 million cases in 4 months though for a virus that is much more contagious than the flu, and estimate 39-56 million for the flu in 6 months. Keep in mind there's a vaccine and our bodies have some natural antibodies for the flu, and we have neither for covid19.

[KOdawg1]

Jesus. It's not about being "giddy" about bad news, its about not sticking your ****ing head in the sand because you "wish" the news was good.

There's a difference between what you just described and what some people are doing. "Jesus"

[hacker]

If the CDC's estimated case total is correct, the death would be .004 (1/250 cases). I have a hard time seeing where they can estimate 30 million cases in 4 months though for a virus that is much more contagious than the flu, and estimate 39-56 million for the flu in 6 months. Keep in mind there's a vaccine and our bodies have some natural antibodies for the flu, and we have neither for covid19.

We decreased the R0 from >2 to ~1.1 through awareness, distancing, masks, etc. For example, https://rt.live/us/MS

[Dawgfan77]

Rephrasing your "99% survival rate," you have a 1 in 100 chance of dying when you catch this virus.

You have about a 1 in 45000 chance of being killed by a terrorist, but I bet you've freaked out about that shit.
Unlike you I don't freak out and I'd check those numbers CoronaBro! I don't have underlying health issues, I am not older than 70, I don't live in fear of a virus that has infected less than 1% of the population of the United States.

You are a fear porn addict.

[Dawgfan77]

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/covid-19-close-losing-its-epidemic-status-us-according-cdc

[Gutter Cobreh]

Unlike you I don't freak out and I'd check those numbers CoronaBro! I don't have underlying health issues, I am not older than 70, I don't live in fear of a virus that has infected less than 1% of the population of the United States.

You are a fear porn addict.

And here is the problem!!! It's not about you, you selfish prick. It's about those you come into contact with. When there are millions that think like you, infection rates spike like they are doing now. No one gives a shit about their fellow man, they're only worried about themselves.

You're probably more worried about monuments being removed than you are the pandemic.

All Hacker has done is provide stats. Each time he does though, you refute them with "feelings" and second hand hearsay. Or, you attack and claim he's a liberal. It's ****ing insane!

[Dawgfan77]

And here is the problem!!! It's not about you, you selfish prick. It's about those you come into contact with. When there are millions that think like you, infection rates spike like they are doing now. No one gives a shit about their fellow man, they're only worried about themselves.

You're probably more worried about monuments being removed than you are the pandemic.

All Hacker has done is provide stats. Each time he does though, you refute them with "feelings" and second hand hearsay. Or, you attack and claim he's a liberal. It's ****ing insane!

Thank you for that eloquent comment. That has no bearing on. Me. Not sure what monument you speak of but I'm all for removing racial and demeaning monuments. But by all means define me. I think positive of the situation we all are in while you hacker liberaldawg and others don't Y'all live in fear by all means. BTW. I'm not gonna infect you

[msstate7]

Is this part of what we need to copy from the European countries?

https://twitter.com/friedrichhayek/status/1279816373019930625?s=21

[99jc]

Unlike you I don't freak out and I'd check those numbers CoronaBro! I don't have underlying health issues, I am not older than 70, I don't live in fear of a virus that has infected less than 1% of the population of the United States.

You are a fear porn addict.

Look you dumbass...If you are so super human you live in no fear of this virus why don't you come on down here where I'm at and move the dead bodies around with me.

[starkvegasdawg]

The hospital at Grenada has released a statement saying they are now at capacity. To give a little perspective they only have 16 corona cases up from 3 last week.

[msstate7]

Look you dumbass...If you are so super human you live in no fear of this virus why don't you come on down here where I'm at and move the dead bodies around with me.

You're moving the covid19 death bodies in Arizona? Where do you move them?

[99jc]

Right now we are locating them to make shift storing areas. Nothing like Nola yet but I fear its coming. that's not all we do but its part of it. We were told that if we can make it through December this year without a serious mutation we may have weathered the storm. if this mutates like the Spanish Flu did in 1918...God help us all!

[Dawgfan77]

Look you dumbass...If you are so super human you live in no fear of this virus why don't you come on down here where I'm at and move the dead bodies around with me.

I don't know why now jump in and attack me. I just said I'm not afraid

Good luck in Tucson was there earlier this year.

[Gutter Cobreh]

The hospital at Grenada has released a statement saying they are now at capacity. To give a little perspective they only have 16 corona cases up from 3 last week.

Interesting. I wonder if this starts hitting rural communities if some will take it a bit more seriously. I get that it's hard when all you see are metro areas in this situation, but if it taxes the rural health systems - we're in serious trouble.

[99jc]

I don't know why now jump in and attack me. I just said I'm not afraid

Good luck in Tucson was there earlier this year.

not meaning to attack you....just frustrated at this shitty situation. I need to retire and move back to Wyoming/Montana.

[Dawgology]

Right now we are locating them to make shift storing areas. Nothing like Nola yet but I fear its coming. that's not all we do but its part of it. We were told that if we can make it through December this year without a serious mutation we may have weathered the storm. if this mutates like the Spanish Flu did in 1918...God help us all!

I?m confused. Arizona is averaging about 50 deaths statewide per day this past week. Are you traveling all over the state to pick up bodies of suspected covid deaths? How does that work?

[Dawgology]

I highly recommend everyone read this report. Directly from the CDC and doesn’t take into account May/June stats:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

[dantheman4248]

And here is the problem!!! It's not about you, you selfish prick. It's about those you come into contact with. When there are millions that think like you, infection rates spike like they are doing now. No one gives a shit about their fellow man, they're only worried about themselves.

You're probably more worried about monuments being removed than you are the pandemic.

All Hacker has done is provide stats. Each time he does though, you refute them with "feelings" and second hand hearsay. Or, you attack and claim he's a liberal. It's ****ing insane!

Gutter he's not worth it.

He won't change his stupid attacks even after a week ban.

Just report, give negative rep, and move on.

Take it from the guy who got a week ban for stooping to his level as well.

[msstate7]

https://i.postimg.cc/15CpTsCH/ECD0-C814-1-E45-4650-8-D05-B8-F3-EAB7-B36-B.png (https://postimg.cc/BXFLP9GL)

https://twitter.com/repandybiggsaz/status/1280171550063411201?s=21

https://i.postimg.cc/HnWyZhbR/9-CB0-FB49-DEFD-43-F5-A5-CE-4-D4415-E1-F947.png (https://postimg.cc/ph7rykGJ)

https://twitter.com/repandybiggsaz/status/1280171686495768576?s=21

[Johnson85]

I highly recommend everyone read this report. Directly from the CDC and doesn?t take into account May/June stats:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

Interesting best guess for Symptomatic Case Fatality Rate.

Overall has a best guess of .4%. For
under 49, it's .05%
50-64 its .2%
65+ it's 1.3%.

With their best guess of 35% of cases being asymptomatic (and assuming they are evenly spaced out, which is probably a bad assumption), that would be

Overall - .26%
under 49 - .0325%
50-64 - .13%
65+ - .845%

[Dawgology]

Interesting best guess for Symptomatic Case Fatality Rate.

Overall has a best guess of .4%. For
under 49, it's .05%
50-64 its .2%
65+ it's 1.3%.

With their best guess of 35% of cases being asymptomatic (and assuming they are evenly spaced out, which is probably a bad assumption), that would be

Overall - .26%
under 49 - .0325%
50-64 - .13%
65+ - .845%

Yes, and keep in mind that is not taking into account May or June stats. Mortality numbers continue to drop as case numbers go up. New reports indicate that it may be more like 45%+ are asymptomatic.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/06/200612172208.htm

As I stated several months back, when a new/novel virus emerges those that are the most susceptible to such a thing (given a lack of treatements, vaccine, or herd immunity) will die in larger numbers. Thus, you will get a large spike over the first couple months and then rates will normalize as it becomes endemic to the population. This is what we are seeing now. Case numbers are rising due to increased testing, people congregating,and lack of vaccine. This will normalize over time with or without a vaccine. It (like the flue) is a single stranded RNA virus that leads to upper and lower respiratory infections and pneumonia and they are both spread through surfaces (minor) and airborne transmission (major). Most of the assays being created now are to test for Flu A, Flu B, and Covid-19.

Still a dangerous disease and vaccine will be key but it is definitely not the end of the world as we know it as many news outlets were reporting (and continue to).

[Gutter Cobreh]

Yes, and keep in mind that is not taking into account May or June stats. Mortality numbers continue to drop as case numbers go up. New reports indicate that it may be more like 45%+ are asymptomatic.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/06/200612172208.htm

As I stated several months back, when a new/novel virus emerges those that are the most susceptible to such a thing (given a lack of treatements, vaccine, or herd immunity) will die in larger numbers. Thus, you will get a large spike over the first couple months and then rates will normalize as it becomes endemic to the population. This is what we are seeing now. Case numbers are rising due to increased testing, people congregating,and lack of vaccine. This will normalize over time with or without a vaccine. It (like the flue) is a single stranded RNA virus that leads to upper and lower respiratory infections and pneumonia and they are both spread through surfaces (minor) and airborne transmission (major). Most of the assays being created now are to test for Flu A, Flu B, and Covid-19.

Still a dangerous disease and vaccine will be key but it is definitely not the end of the world as we know it as many news outlets were reporting (and continue to).

The mortality rate dropping is huge! That fact can't be stated enough.

A virus is only effective as its transmittal rate. Contrary to what I've read, I still think that it's either mutated or warmer temps have made it less lethal. What are your thoughts for the fall/winter months with this still in circulation? Do you think we see what we're seeing now or does it regain its punch that we saw in NYC?

[Joebob]

Why is everybody so fixated on the fatality rate? That's certainly important, but it's not the whole story. There's also the people that spend four weeks in the hospital, and someone has to pay for that. There's the people that have lingering serious side effects that last for months, and in many cases still haven't gone away. There's the hospitals that are getting overloaded and the mental toll that takes on the healthcare workers. Unfortunately there's no data that I'm aware of that indicates how widespread these factors are, but it's clear they're happening. Please don't fall into a false sense of security just because fewer people are dying.

[confucius say]

[QUOTE=Joebob;1258570]Why is everybody so fixated on the fatality rate?


Because that is the most important thing.

I do understand your point hospitals about though.

[99jc]

I don't know where these numbers on Arizona are coming from its fake news. The gov't is full of Shit this crap is exploding in Phoenix and Houston. i have been transferred to Phoenix and i can tell you its getting serious here OASIS Hospital is overloaded.

[Commercecomet24]

Yes, and keep in mind that is not taking into account May or June stats. Mortality numbers continue to drop as case numbers go up. New reports indicate that it may be more like 45%+ are asymptomatic.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/06/200612172208.htm

As I stated several months back, when a new/novel virus emerges those that are the most susceptible to such a thing (given a lack of treatements, vaccine, or herd immunity) will die in larger numbers. Thus, you will get a large spike over the first couple months and then rates will normalize as it becomes endemic to the population. This is what we are seeing now. Case numbers are rising due to increased testing, people congregating,and lack of vaccine. This will normalize over time with or without a vaccine. It (like the flue) is a single stranded RNA virus that leads to upper and lower respiratory infections and pneumonia and they are both spread through surfaces (minor) and airborne transmission (major). Most of the assays being created now are to test for Flu A, Flu B, and Covid-19.

Still a dangerous disease and vaccine will be key but it is definitely not the end of the world as we know it as many news outlets were reporting (and continue to).

This! The studies I mentioned a
couple of months ago being done by Stanford, UPMC, Wake Baptist, UAB,etc, showing infection rate, asymptomatic rate, mortality rate, etc.,were showing this would be the trend that we would see, and now the cdc is confirming their numbers.

[Dawgology]

I don't know where these numbers on Arizona are coming from its fake news. The gov't is full of Shit this crap is exploding in Phoenix and Houston. i have been transferred to Phoenix and i can tell you its getting serious here OASIS Hospital is overloaded.

I understand at ground zero it can be overwhelming but understand you are talking about one hospital in a country of 350 million people. If they are transferring all covid deaths to Oasis then you will see an influx from the spike they had a few days ago. Arizona has only reported 4 covid deaths over the past two days though. I’m sure those totals lag behind. Just realize that you are there because it’s a national hot spot so you are right now seeing the worst outbreak in the US currently. That doesn’t mean the entire US looks like that. Same reason they send the NG down after hurricanes. Doesn’t mean all of the US is flooding just the area you are going to.

Keep it squared away and come home safely and well.

[Dawgology]

Why is everybody so fixated on the fatality rate? That's certainly important, but it's not the whole story. There's also the people that spend four weeks in the hospital, and someone has to pay for that. There's the people that have lingering serious side effects that last for months, and in many cases still haven't gone away. There's the hospitals that are getting overloaded and the mental toll that takes on the healthcare workers. Unfortunately there's no data that I'm aware of that indicates how widespread these factors are, but it's clear they're happening. Please don't fall into a false sense of security just because fewer people are dying.

Because that’s what everyone has focused on since day one. Reduce mortality rate. You can start moving the goal posts later.

[Dawgology]

The mortality rate dropping is huge! That fact can't be stated enough.

A virus is only effective as its transmittal rate. Contrary to what I've read, I still think that it's either mutated or warmer temps have made it less lethal. What are your thoughts for the fall/winter months with this still in circulation? Do you think we see what we're seeing now or does it regain its punch that we saw in NYC?

It’ll come back stronger in the cooler less humid months just like the flu does. I don’t think the mortality rate will ever be as high as it first was but that goes back to what I posted before about the initial spike. About 100,000 people die from the flu or flu related illnesses each year in the US so I can see it being about like that each year especially after a seasonal vaccine is created. Those that are older or with compromised immune systems will always be at risk though even with a vaccine. Basically there will be a combo flu a, flu b, covid vaccine you will want to get each year to be safe.

[Todd4State]

It’ll come back stronger in the cooler less humid months just like the flu does. I don’t think the mortality rate will ever be as high as it first was but that goes back to what I posted before about the initial spike. About 100,000 people die from the flu or flu related illnesses each year in the US so I can see it being about like that each year especially after a seasonal vaccine is created. Those that are older or with compromised immune systems will always be at risk though even with a vaccine. Basically there will be a combo flu a, flu b, covid vaccine you will want to get each year to be safe.

I totally agree with everything that you've posted.

[Gutter Cobreh]

This! The studies I mentioned a
couple of months ago being done by Stanford, UPMC, Wake Baptist, UAB,etc, showing infection rate, asymptomatic rate, mortality rate, etc.,were showing this would be the trend that we would see, and now the cdc is confirming their numbers.

Still waiting on you to provide the names of these health systems that you service who aren't concerned about the virus...


I don't know where these numbers on Arizona are coming from its fake news. The gov't is full of Shit this crap is exploding in Phoenix and Houston. i have been transferred to Phoenix and i can tell you its getting serious here OASIS Hospital is overloaded.


Because that’s what everyone has focused on since day one. Reduce mortality rate. You can start moving the goal posts later.

The focus from day 1 has been to not overload the hospitals. It was never about mortality rate. Based on what 99jc is saying (who is literally "boots on the ground"), some health systems are being taxed.

Thanks for answering my question though regarding the cooler months. I agree w/ regarding the annual vaccine, but I'm nervous that flu + COVID season will be rough.

[Dawgology]

Still waiting on you to provide the names of these health systems that you service who aren't concerned about the virus...





The focus from day 1 has been to not overload the hospitals. It was never about mortality rate. Based on what 99jc is saying (who is literally "boots on the ground"), some health systems are being taxed.

Thanks for answering my question though regarding the cooler months. I agree w/ regarding the annual vaccine, but I'm nervous that flu + COVID season will be rough.

Your absolutely right that the focus of all of the measures have been to flatten the curve. This was done to battle the spike that would result as a novel virus entered the population. That was accomplished. There will still be hotspots as the virus makes its way through densely populated urban areas throughout the US. I do not believe you will see a mortality rate again like you saw at the beginning of this though. This has been the case in literally every country the virus has spread through. With that said, the mortality rate has been a major and constant point throughout this entire process. Initially it was reported to have anywhere from a 5-10% mortality rate with some alarmist reporting up to 15%. This was an incomplete picture and, frankly, bad reporting.

The real story will be hospitalization and recovery rate. We won’t know the true extent of the Covid impact for another decade probably. It looks like about 1-3% of those that get the virus get it really bad and can cause sever symptoms that may have long lasting effects. The mechanisms behind this is unclear but I’m pretty sure it’s going to be genetic and related to Dysautonomia...another genetic disease that is not well treated.

[Commercecomet24]

Still waiting on you to provide the names of these health systems that you service who aren't concerned about the virus...





The focus from day 1 has been to not overload the hospitals. It was never about mortality rate. Based on what 99jc is saying (who is literally "boots on the ground"), some health systems are being taxed.

Thanks for answering my question though regarding the cooler months. I agree w/ regarding the annual vaccine, but I'm nervous that flu + COVID season will be rough.

Never said they weren't concerned I said they weren't freaking out. Huge difference. And I'm not mentioning the name of anyone I do business with on this board.

[dantheman4248]

Imagine getting people who don't get that wearing a mask only has two outcomes: you help prevent spread or you look like a good citizen concerned for his fellow man.... imagine getting them to care about long term health effects.

In the country that actively fights access to healthcare for all....

Imagine. I'm sorry Joebob but you might even be more naive than me in believing in the good of man and how in depth we as society can think. And I'm pretty damn naive for thinking what I think so it's no small feat to be more naive than me.

Every day I read this board I'm glad I took the risk to leave Mississippi. I miss the hospitality and especially the food, but damn if reading this board doesn't tell me that I only got that hospitality because I didn't question as openly things I disagreed with down there and had the right color skin tone.

[Homedawg]

Still waiting on you to provide the names of these health systems that you service who aren't concerned about the virus...





The focus from day 1 has been to not overload the hospitals. It was never about mortality rate. Based on what 99jc is saying (who is literally "boots on the ground"), some health systems are being taxed.

Thanks for answering my question though regarding the cooler months. I agree w/ regarding the annual vaccine, but I'm nervous that flu + COVID season will be rough.
Do you really expect him to tell you?? Sometimes info is sacred. I'm not going to tel you who told me we weren't hiring BN I'd rather have the info. In his case, his job matters I'm sure. Don't expect to hear it and Bc you don't doesn't mean it's. Not true.

[Homedawg]

Imagine getting people who don't get that wearing a mask only has two outcomes: you help prevent spread or you look like a good citizen concerned for his fellow man.... imagine getting them to care about long term health effects.

In the country that actively fights access to healthcare for all....

Imagine. I'm sorry Joebob but you might even be more naive than me in believing in the good of man and how in depth we as society can think. And I'm pretty damn naive for thinking what I think so it's no small feat to be more naive than me.

Every day I read this board I'm glad I took the risk to leave Mississippi. I miss the hospitality and especially the food, but damn if reading this board doesn't tell me that I only got that hospitality because I didn't question as openly things I disagreed with down there and had the right color skin tone.

Bc only you can be so great. Carry on great one. But I love how you pull race into everything. I don't. I do my best NOT to see color. But I get you to mention it in every post

[Johnson85]

The focus from day 1 has been to not overload the hospitals. It was never about mortality rate. Based on what 99jc is saying (who is literally "boots on the ground"), some health systems are being taxed.


The focus on day 1 was to not overload the hospitals, hence the flatten the curve, raise the line. Nobody ever argued or pretended that we were going to change the area under the curve, just the shape of it.

Then, when it became clear that it was nto as bad as we thought and that there were a lot of areas that didn't have much infection present yet, instead of keeping with that approach, we moved on to the lock down indefinitely approach, or at least some places did and lots of people argued for it. What we are mostly doing now (against the apparent advice of all the screaming heads in the media and on social media) seems to be consistent with the flatten the curve approach. Keep everything as open as possible while not overwhelming the hospitals. It looks like we are doing that for the most part and some places are being taxed, as they would have to be and should be if we're going to follow that strategy. If no healthcare system gets taxed and you're not opened up completely, that means you are probably inflicting a lot more pain than necessary.

I still think the places getting hit hard now are relatively lucky. It appears that places with a lot of ac use and indoor activities are getting hit hardest now, which makes me think that colder climates are going to get this in the winter, but they are going to get it at the same time as flu and also just have to deal with the fact that respiratory viruses tend to be tougher in winter months.

[Liverpooldawg]

The focus on day 1 was to not overload the hospitals, hence the flatten the curve, raise the line. Nobody ever argued or pretended that we were going to change the area under the curve, just the shape of it.

Then, when it became clear that it was nto as bad as we thought and that there were a lot of areas that didn't have much infection present yet, instead of keeping with that approach, we moved on to the lock down indefinitely approach, or at least some places did and lots of people argued for it. What we are mostly doing now (against the apparent advice of all the screaming heads in the media and on social media) seems to be consistent with the flatten the curve approach. Keep everything as open as possible while not overwhelming the hospitals. It looks like we are doing that for the most part and some places are being taxed, as they would have to be and should be if we're going to follow that strategy. If no healthcare system gets taxed and you're not opened up completely, that means you are probably inflicting a lot more pain than necessary.

I still think the places getting hit hard now are relatively lucky. It appears that places with a lot of ac use and indoor activities are getting hit hardest now, which makes me think that colder climates are going to get this in the winter, but they are going to get it at the same time as flu and also just have to deal with the fact that respiratory viruses tend to be tougher in winter months.

Surreal

[Gutter Cobreh]

The focus on day 1 was to not overload the hospitals, hence the flatten the curve, raise the line. Nobody ever argued or pretended that we were going to change the area under the curve, just the shape of it.

Then, when it became clear that it was nto as bad as we thought and that there were a lot of areas that didn't have much infection present yet, instead of keeping with that approach, we moved on to the lock down indefinitely approach, or at least some places did and lots of people argued for it. What we are mostly doing now (against the apparent advice of all the screaming heads in the media and on social media) seems to be consistent with the flatten the curve approach. Keep everything as open as possible while not overwhelming the hospitals. It looks like we are doing that for the most part and some places are being taxed, as they would have to be and should be if we're going to follow that strategy. If no healthcare system gets taxed and you're not opened up completely, that means you are probably inflicting a lot more pain than necessary.

I still think the places getting hit hard now are relatively lucky. It appears that places with a lot of ac use and indoor activities are getting hit hardest now, which makes me think that colder climates are going to get this in the winter, but they are going to get it at the same time as flu and also just have to deal with the fact that respiratory viruses tend to be tougher in winter months.

100% agree w/ you! The mortality rate is just now being thrown around to justify a rise in cases.

In hindsight, and to your point, we should have had a "rolling" closure. The reason we couldn't do that is because there wasn't enough PPE for even the areas of the country who were seeing spikes. This is why Fauci said not to wear masks in the beginning and later changed his tune. There weren't enough masks to outfit every citizen in the beginning. The lack of basic supplies to combat the problem initially is what resulted in the entire country going on lock down.

This is also the reason why we are now divided as a country regarding the virus. You had people isolated for months and losing their businesses and income - only to see their area have no substantial increase in the spread of the virus. They come out of isolation bitter because they think their efforts were for naught.

[hacker]

Large antibody study in Spain

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)31483-5.pdf

5% positive across the country, up to 14% in some areas (Madrid)

"The majority of the Spanish population is seronegative to SARS-CoV-2 infection, even in hotspot areas.
Most PCR-confirmed cases have detectable antibodies, but a substantial proportion of people with symptoms compatible
with COVID-19 did not have a PCR test and at least a third of infections determined by serology were asymptomatic.
These results emphasise the need for maintaining public health measures to avoid a new epidemic wave."

47 million population
5% of 47 million = 2.35 million implied infections
300k cases
29k confirmed deaths
45k excess deaths in 2020

45k excess deaths / 2.35 million implied infections = 1.9% infection fatality rate

[Gutter Cobreh]

I've talked with 2 infectious disease doctors I know very well, one at UAB and one at UPMC in Pittsburgh. Their studies are showing the virus is weakening and more young people are being exposed/tested and the young and healthy are not suffering very many adverse affects from the virus, thus the declining death rate. Both of these doctors have been doing this for over 20 years so I value their opinion.


Todd I can assure y'all aren't the only ones treating using these methods. I spent the last 2 weeks traveling all over Arkansas and Oklahoma seeing my accounts and the hospitals I see are using similar treatments but as you said they aren't publicizing it. By the way Oklahoma didn't shutdown like most states hardly any one is wearing a mask they only have a little over 14000 cases and 400 deaths. Go and figure.


Lol I learned to live with it a long time ago. I'm seeing my hospital and home health accounts all over the Southeast and I've yet to run into an administrator, doctor, or nurse freaking out like some of y'all on here. I'll keep doing my thing and living my life and you do you. Have fun, I am!


Never said they weren't concerned I said they weren't freaking out. Huge difference. And I'm not mentioning the name of anyone I do business with on this board.

Semantics. I guess now, we have to differentiate between "concerned" and "freaked out". I haven't seen anyone in this thread "freaked out", but there are some who are concerned and others who are dismissive of the entire thing.

My fear is that if we aren't taking this seriously and are dismissive of the virus because of mortality rates, it may (just maybe) spread to an area where you live and take out someone that you love. As an example, if two people in the entire state of MS pass away from the virus - the mortality rate would look fantastic. If those two people are folks that you are related to and care deeply about, you're not really going to care much about the mortality rate.


I forgot masks fix everything lol

I hope you've changed your stance in regards to wearing a mask. It is a simple step we all can do to show we care about our fellow brothers and sisters on this planet. You tend to be an overall positive poster on this board, so I'm sure you wear one. I would also hope you encourage everyone you come into contact with to wear one as well.

[msstate7]

Large antibody study in Spain

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)31483-5.pdf

5% positive across the country, up to 14% in some areas (Madrid)

"The majority of the Spanish population is seronegative to SARS-CoV-2 infection, even in hotspot areas.
Most PCR-confirmed cases have detectable antibodies, but a substantial proportion of people with symptoms compatible
with COVID-19 did not have a PCR test and at least a third of infections determined by serology were asymptomatic.
These results emphasise the need for maintaining public health measures to avoid a new epidemic wave."

47 million population
5% of 47 million = 2.35 million implied infections
300k cases
29k confirmed deaths
45k excess deaths in 2020

45k excess deaths / 2.35 million implied infections = 1.9% infection fatality rate

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53248660

[hacker]

Bolsonaro got the 'rona

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/07/brazil-president-jair-bolsonaro-tests-positive-for-coronavirus.html

[msstate7]

Wonder what happens if 1 of our presidential candidates catch corona in October. Would the VP candidate in essence be the new candidate?

[Commercecomet24]

Semantics. I guess now, we have to differentiate between "concerned" and "freaked out". I haven't seen anyone in this thread "freaked out", but there are some who are concerned and others who are dismissive of the entire thing.

My fear is that if we aren't taking this seriously and are dismissive of the virus because of mortality rates, it may (just maybe) spread to an area where you live and take out someone that you love. As an example, if two people in the entire state of MS pass away from the virus - the mortality rate would look fantastic. If those two people are folks that you are related to and care deeply about, you're not really going to care much about the mortality rate.



I hope you've changed your stance in regards to wearing a mask. It is a simple step we all can do to show we care about our fellow brothers and sisters on this planet. You tend to be an overall positive poster on this board, so I'm sure you wear one. I would also hope you encourage everyone you come into contact with to wear one as well.

Here's where things get misconstrued. You can be serious and take precautions without living in fear. The majority of my customers are seniors and I love them dearly, I been doing this for over 20 years, one death is to many. My 14 year old daughter has juvenile arthritis and is on biological so she falls in the high risk category so we take precautions with her but let her be a normal teenager as much as possible during this. All those at high risk should take ever precaution, the rest of us need to keep going, and yes i practice social distancing and wear a mask. The message I'm trying to convey is that there is hope of getting through this. The healthcare professionals I know are promoting the same positive message. I don't want to get to religious on here but my faith allows me to stay positive through a crisis and to not live in fear. Once again precautions yes, but we MUST carry on or the collateral damage from this will be much greater than the virus itself.

[hacker]

Here's where things get misconstrued. You can be serious and take precautions without living in fear. The majority of my customers are seniors and I love them dearly, I been doing this for over 20 years, one death is to many. My 14 year old daughter has juvenile arthritis and is on biological so she falls in the high risk category so we take precautions with her but let her be a normal teenager as much as possible during this. All those at high risk should take ever precaution, the rest of us need to keep going, and yes i practice social distancing and wear a mask. The message I'm trying to convey is that there is hope of getting through this. The healthcare professionals I know are promoting the same positive message. I don't want to get to religious on here but my faith allows me to stay positive through a crisis and to not live in fear. Once again precautions yes, but we MUST carry on or the collateral damage from this will be much greater than the virus itself.

Taking it seriously and realistically does not equate to living in fear. Just because some of us are not downplaying everything so that we feel better personally does not mean we're living in fear. Downplaying the threat is harmful to us all as a whole because it can influence others to not take precautions to protect themselves and others. At least 130,000 people have died in our country in 4 months and we still have a long way to go.

[hacker]

Not to mention a countless number of people have been sicker than they've ever been in their lives, pushed to the brink of death, have lingering issues for months, and have completely taxed the health care systems in several of our cities.

[dantheman4248]

Taking it seriously and realistically does not equate to living in fear. Just because some of us are not downplaying everything so that we feel better personally does not mean we're living in fear. Downplaying the threat is harmful to us all as a whole because it can influence others to not take precautions to protect themselves and others. At least 130,000 people have died in our country in 4 months and we still have a long way to go.

Throwing more rep your way since it's been long enough finally. This is spot on.

Wearing a mask and acknowledging risk is not living in fear. Driving a car with air bags and wearing a seatbelt is the same.

[Johnson85]

100% agree w/ you! The mortality rate is just now being thrown around to justify a rise in cases.

In hindsight, and to your point, we should have had a "rolling" closure. The reason we couldn't do that is because there wasn't enough PPE for even the areas of the country who were seeing spikes. This is why Fauci said not to wear masks in the beginning and later changed his tune. There weren't enough masks to outfit every citizen in the beginning. The lack of basic supplies to combat the problem initially is what resulted in the entire country going on lock down.

This is also the reason why we are now divided as a country regarding the virus. You had people isolated for months and losing their businesses and income - only to see their area have no substantial increase in the spread of the virus. They come out of isolation bitter because they think their efforts were for naught.

It's not that they didn't have a substantial increase in the virus. It's that when it was clear the goal of flattening the curve had been accomplished everywhere outside of New York basically, the goal posts got moved and "two weeks to flatten the curve" became something indefinite, or tied to nonsensical guidelines (like Trump's phased reopening that although it allowed for state and local governments to tailor the plan to match their circumstances, made it politically difficult for them b/c ass hats still pointed to the nonsensical tests and claimed they were ignoring the federal government's guidance). Then they compounded that by basically just saying "never mind", when a lockdown interfered with either their political goals or virtue signaling.

[Commercecomet24]

I'm out of this thread for good. No one seems to understand what I've tried to bring to this so y'all have at it. I'm gonna live my life y'all go live yours. I pray you all stay safe and healthy. Maybe we can get back to arguing State sports again one day.

[msstate7]

It's not that they didn't have a substantial increase in the virus. It's that when it was clear the goal of flattening the curve had been accomplished everywhere outside of New York basically, the goal posts got moved and "two weeks to flatten the curve" became something indefinite, or tied to nonsensical guidelines (like Trump's phased reopening that although it allowed for state and local governments to tailor the plan to match their circumstances, made it politically difficult for them b/c ass hats still pointed to the nonsensical tests and claimed they were ignoring the federal government's guidance). Then they compounded that by basically just saying "never mind", when a lockdown interfered with either their political goals or virtue signaling.

Remember this?

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Jyfn4Wd2i6bRi12ePghMHtX3ys1b7K1A/view

[msstate7]

I'm out of this thread for good. No one seems to understand what I've tried to bring to this so y'all have at it. I'm gonna live my life y'all go live yours. I pray you all stay safe and healthy. Maybe we can get back to arguing State sports again one day.

You can't be taking this serious if you have a positive outlook. You're gonna kill grandma... or make her really sick... or even if she doesn't get sick, she'll have long term issues.

[FISHDAWG]

I'm out of this thread for good. No one seems to understand what I've tried to bring to this so y'all have at it. I'm gonna live my life y'all go live yours. I pray you all stay safe and healthy. Maybe we can get back to arguing State sports again one day.

come on over and have a beer with the rest of us ... throwing a pool party for those who understands the sky isn't falling after all

[Johnson85]

Throwing more rep your way since it's been long enough finally. This is spot on.

Wearing a mask and acknowledging risk is not living in fear. Driving a car with air bags and wearing a seatbelt is the same.

It's not wearing a mask or acknowledging risk that is living in fear. It's refusing to accept that not every bad thing can be avoided and trying to make other people's lives worse rather than accepting that something bad has happened.

A lot of people have died and will die from the Wuhan virus, and keeping kids out of school, or keeping them from playing sports or other social activities, isn't going to change that. It's just going to heap avoidable harm on top of all the unavoidable harm, without much gain unless we get incredibly lucky with a vaccine.

We have already asked young people to bear a pretty significant burden. Some of that was perfectly justified. There were a lot of unknowns and being cautious was the right approach. But we shouldn't ignore that it was a real harm we inflicted on a lot of kids. From being subject to abuse and hunger to the much milder but still real harm of depriving some of them of social activities and sports the spring of their senior year. And we shouldn't sign up to inflict more of that harm without an attainable purpose, and I'm still not hearing what the justification would be. We need to accept that something bad has already happened, and we're can't make it unhappen by putting our fingers in our ears and pitching a fit. At least we are dealing with a pandemic that is relatively mild for the young. Still horrible, but it could be much, much worse.

[hacker]

You can't be taking this serious if you have a positive outlook. You're gonna kill grandma... or make her really sick... or even if she doesn't get sick, she'll have long term issues.

And if you do take it seriously, you're a coward living in fear and a communist

[Johnson85]

I'm out of this thread for good. No one seems to understand what I've tried to bring to this so y'all have at it. I'm gonna live my life y'all go live yours. I pray you all stay safe and healthy. Maybe we can get back to arguing State sports again one day.

But we've only gone 216 pages. Never pegged you for a quitter.**

[Gutter Cobreh]

It's not wearing a mask or acknowledging risk that is living in fear. It's refusing to accept that not every bad thing can be avoided and trying to make other people's lives worse rather than accepting that something bad has happened.

A lot of people have died and will die from the Wuhan virus, and keeping kids out of school, or keeping them from playing sports or other social activities, isn't going to change that. It's just going to heap avoidable harm on top of all the unavoidable harm, without much gain unless we get incredibly lucky with a vaccine.

We have already asked young people to bear a pretty significant burden. Some of that was perfectly justified. There were a lot of unknowns and being cautious was the right approach. But we shouldn't ignore that it was a real harm we inflicted on a lot of kids. From being subject to abuse and hunger to the much milder but still real harm of depriving some of them of social activities and sports the spring of their senior year. And we shouldn't sign up to inflict more of that harm without an attainable purpose, and I'm still not hearing what the justification would be. We need to accept that something bad has already happened, and we're can't make it unhappen by putting our fingers in our ears and pitching a fit. At least we are dealing with a pandemic that is relatively mild for the young. Still horrible, but it could be much, much worse.

I agree with you. As the same time, there are people on this board that are dismissive of the data being shared.

I highly doubt anyone on this thread is being a hermit and not socializing with their friends or neighbors. At the same time, I would hope that they think twice before they head out to participate in a large gathering. It boils down to common sense and I'm afraid that is lacking in our overall population.

I don't think anyone here is not empathetic to the situation and what impact it has had on kids, businesses, family lives, etc. To answer your question on justification, I don't think we'll be shutting things down again like they were earlier this year. I don't think that is a feasible option, nor is it warranted. At the same time, you can't ignore the spikes in cases and think that the virus won't at some point infiltrate your community. My greatest fear is that if it gets a hold of rural communities and spreads (like it did in Albany, GA) - there is going to be some severe heart break because there isn't enough healthcare to manage the volume.

[Johnson85]

I agree with you. As the same time, there are people on this board that are dismissive of the data being shared.

I highly doubt anyone on this thread is being a hermit and not socializing with their friends or neighbors. At the same time, I would hope that they think twice before they head out to participate in a large gathering. It boils down to common sense and I'm afraid that is lacking in our overall population.

I don't think anyone here is not empathetic to the situation and what impact it has had on kids, businesses, family lives, etc. There absolutely are. You can see some posts that accuse people of wanting to let kids play sports of putting kids lives in danger to be entertained. And others that clearly think kids wanting to do things like rec league or high schools sports, or social activities like school dances, or going on beach vacations are being frivolous. They are so worried about their health and their fear of getting sick that they compare everything in the granular against the thought of they themselves dying, and so they are incapable of looking at the big picture and realizing how little sense their positions make when you aggregate the costs and benefits across the whole population.



To answer your question on justification, I don't think we'll be shutting things down again like they were earlier this year. I don't think that is a feasible option, nor is it warranted. At the same time, you can't ignore the spikes in cases and think that the virus won't at some point infiltrate your community. My greatest fear is that if it gets a hold of rural communities and spreads (like it did in Albany, GA) - there is going to be some severe heart break because there isn't enough healthcare to manage the volume. Well, I'm afraid you can go ahead and get ready to see your greatest fear b/c it seems likely it's going to happen in some places. Populated areas can handle a few super spreader events and it may tax the system, but it's still basically just really loud noise. One super spreader event in a very rural area can hit a significant portion of the population by itself. Going to be a lot more volatility in rural communities, with it being easier for them to avoid the virus on a day to day basis, but much easier to hit a big portion of their population when they do have community events.

[Prediction? Pain.]

My county's health department issued an order that requires masks starting July 10. It is effective till early September. Here's the order if you're interested (though it reads like a legal proclamation, which makes it a bit of a chore to sift through):

http://health.hamiltontn.org/AllServices/Coronavirus(COVID-19)/Orders.aspx

This comes as a large group of Tennessee's critical care physicians are pushing Governor Lee to issue a statewide mask directive. Here's a video that the group put out:

https://www.facebook.com/204061356724940/videos/265492024742150

It's half an hour but is honestly a fairly informative watch. The first 15 minutes or so includes talks from critical care pulmonologists from east, middle, and west Tennessee. (Sidebar: Tennessee's government officially recognizes three "grand divisions" of the state. East -- everything from Chattanooga east -- West -- Memphis to a little past Jackson -- and Middle -- a rough square with Nashville in the center.) The Chattanooga pulmonologist's spiel was particularly interesting, at least to me. (Full disclosure: My father is a physician in Chattanooga and sent me the video. He's worked at the hospital where the Chattanooga pulmonologist practices but is not one of the docs on the call.)

How about where y'all are? Any of your counties/cities/states under mask orders right now?

[msstate7]

My county's health department issued an order that requires masks starting July 10. It is effective till early September. Here's the order if you're interested (though it reads like a legal proclamation, which makes it a bit of a chore to sift through):

http://health.hamiltontn.org/AllServices/Coronavirus(COVID-19)/Orders.aspx

This comes as a large group of Tennessee's critical care physicians are pushing Governor Lee to issue a statewide mask directive. Here's a video that the group put out:

https://www.facebook.com/204061356724940/videos/265492024742150

It's half an hour but is honestly a fairly informative watch. The first 15 minutes or so includes talks from critical care pulmonologists from east, middle, and west Tennessee. (Sidebar: Tennessee's government officially recognizes three "grand divisions" of the state. East -- everything from Chattanooga east -- West -- Memphis to a little past Jackson -- and Middle -- a rough square with Nashville in the center.) The Chattanooga pulmonologist's spiel was particularly interesting, at least to me. (Full disclosure: My father is a physician in Chattanooga and sent me the video. He's worked at the hospital where the Chattanooga pulmonologist practices but is not one of the docs on the call.)

How about where y'all are? Any of your counties/cities/states under mask orders right now?

We've had a mask order since early June.

It's very loosely enforced. I was in Nola where it wasn't enforced much in late May.

[State82]

I'm out of this thread for good. No one seems to understand what I've tried to bring to this so y'all have at it. I'm gonna live my life y'all go live yours. I pray you all stay safe and healthy. Maybe we can get back to arguing State sports again one day.

I understand completely what you have been saying. It makes more sense than about 90% of what I read here. I don't participate in this particular discussion but I read the vast majority of it. And you are one of the posters that I like to read opinions from.

[Liverpooldawg]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/07/herd-immunity-questioned-after-spanish-coronavirus-antibody-study.html

[Joebob]

How about where y'all are? Any of your counties/cities/states under mask orders right now?

Texas is now under a mandatory mask order for counties with more than 20 Covid cases. Most people in my zip code (DFW) were wearing one anyway. Hard to say what the rest of the state was doing. Probably depends on how dense the population is.

[hacker]

43 hospital ICUs across 21 counties in Florida at capacity

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/506222-43-florida-icus-at-capacity-as-coronavirus-cases-surge

[Gutter Cobreh]

There absolutely are. You can see some posts that accuse people of wanting to let kids play sports of putting kids lives in danger to be entertained. And others that clearly think kids wanting to do things like rec league or high schools sports, or social activities like school dances, or going on beach vacations are being frivolous. They are so worried about their health and their fear of getting sick that they compare everything in the granular against the thought of they themselves dying, and so they are incapable of looking at the big picture and realizing how little sense their positions make when you aggregate the costs and benefits across the whole population.


Well, I'm afraid you can go ahead and get ready to see your greatest fear b/c it seems likely it's going to happen in some places. Populated areas can handle a few super spreader events and it may tax the system, but it's still basically just really loud noise. One super spreader event in a very rural area can hit a significant portion of the population by itself. Going to be a lot more volatility in rural communities, with it being easier for them to avoid the virus on a day to day basis, but much easier to hit a big portion of their population when they do have community events.

Appreciate your viewpoint.

Since this is a sports board, I will start there. I think that we are so consumed with sports that we let it overshadow the fact that it is not essential. I'm all for letting professional sports continue as they see fit, but I think you have to tread carefully when talking about high school or college sports. I think if our universities are so dependent on athletic revenue to balance their operating budgets - then something has gone amiss and this situation has brought to light the imbalance of what an institution of higher learning should be about. It isn't about "fear mongering" or "not seeing the bigger picture" - it is more about whether an activity is essential enough to waive the risks. If the general population feels like that sports at lower levels are essential enough to deal with kids potentially getting sick, then go for it. If a majority think the risks don't warrant cancelling, then have at it. You're going to have detractors and views for both sides. I don't know which side is correct, but I do know sports are entertainment.

To the same point, what are the largest events that typically happen in a rural area in the fall? Don't football games bring people together to sit in stands and root for their team? If you have an asymptomatic spreader that doesn't believe in the data and chooses to forgo a mask, wouldn't a football game where a majority of the community will attend provide an event for it to spread? Just a thought.

Full disclosure - my kid is prepping to play football this fall and is currently playing a league sport right now. My wife and I have discussed the situation and made the decision that we are going to continue our lives as best we can through this pandemic, while also being aware and doing our best to protect those around us by wearing masks. The virus isn't prevalent to a large degree in our current community, so no need to hunker down and be recluses.

[starkvegasdawg]

Hearing 900+ cases and 40+ deaths reported today. Not on website yet.

[WinningIsRelentless]

956 and 44 new deaths today in MS

[hacker]

Arizona also had 117 deaths reported today.

That said, let's see how the rest of the week plays out. There was likely a backlog due to the holiday weekend. Don't read too much into today's numbers.

[msstate7]

956 and 44 new deaths today in MS

Last 3 day total was 11, so 55 over 4 days (~14/day). That's where we've been a while now, unfortunately

[DownwardDawg]

My wife’s hospital is overwhelmed with Covid patients now. She texted me today that she was in Covid-Ville, where ALL lives matter.

[Johnson85]

Appreciate your viewpoint.

Since this is a sports board, I will start there. I think that we are so consumed with sports that we let it overshadow the fact that it is not essential. I'm all for letting professional sports continue as they see fit, but I think you have to tread carefully when talking about high school or college sports. I think if our universities are so dependent on athletic revenue to balance their operating budgets - then something has gone amiss and this situation has brought to light the imbalance of what an institution of higher learning should be about. It isn't about "fear mongering" or "not seeing the bigger picture" - it is more about whether an activity is essential enough to waive the risks. If the general population feels like that sports at lower levels are essential enough to deal with kids potentially getting sick, then go for it. If a majority think the risks don't warrant cancelling, then have at it. You're going to have detractors and views for both sides. I don't know which side is correct, but I do know sports are entertainment.

Not to pick on you or be argumentative, but I would say this entire paragraph is an example of not seeing the bigger picture. We don't normally require that things be essential in order to allow them to go forward even with risk. Phrase like "whether an activity is essential enough to waive the risks" to me indicates somebody whose risk meter is all out of whack. The first question should be from the kids interest. I.e., how much additional risk is a child exposed to from (for example) playing football. ANd the answer is, not much. If they aren't playing football, they will very likely be socializing in similar sized groups and possibly going to school in similar sized groups. Even if they don't do that, many of them will be working in jobs like retail that expose them to a good number of people. And of course, most importantly, for most of them, it's not a particularly serious threat as far as we know. If you ask most kids, "Would you give up high school sports and other group activities for two years of your high school and otherwise drastically reduce the number of people you interact with socially for two years, in order to cut your risk of catching COVID in half (which I'm not sure we can do), which means your risk of death from COVID would drop from something like 0.01% of dying of COVID to 0.005%, and also cut your risk from some as of yet unknown side effects by half, I think most teenagers would say "are you 17ing kidding me?", and I don't think they would answer that way b/c they are bad at assessing risk (although granted most teenagers are).

The interests of the kids are certainly not the only question. But the way this thing is talked about you would think their happiness/satisfaction counts about as much as the happiness/satisfaction of people's pet fish. Just because things are not biologically or economically necessary doesn't mean they have zero value.

Again, not meaning to direct this necessarily at you. Some may apply, some may not, but in general, people seem to be being obtuse ass holes about this. If teenagers were going around saying things like, "so you lose your business that you spent the last five years of your life on. Just go get a job like the vast majority of other people. Five years of your life is a small price to pay", people would rightfully look at those teenagers as ass holes, or I guess more accurately, as lacking perspective because they are teenagers.

But I don't know what the excuse is for adults who act like just taking away in person school, extra curricular activities, social events, etc. from high schoolers for a couple of years is no big deal. It's a big deal. There's more to life than biological and work necessities and lots of things that aren't those things are important.



To the same point, what are the largest events that typically happen in a rural area in the fall? Don't football games bring people together to sit in stands and root for their team? If you have an asymptomatic spreader that doesn't believe in the data and chooses to forgo a mask, wouldn't a football game where a majority of the community will attend provide an event for it to spread? Just a thought.

Full disclosure - my kid is prepping to play football this fall and is currently playing a league sport right now. My wife and I have discussed the situation and made the decision that we are going to continue our lives as best we can through this pandemic, while also being aware and doing our best to protect those around us by wearing masks. The virus isn't prevalent to a large degree in our current community, so no need to hunker down and be recluses.

[Gutter Cobreh]

Not to pick on you or be argumentative, but I would say this entire paragraph is an example of not seeing the bigger picture. We don't normally require that things be essential in order to allow them to go forward even with risk. Phrase like "whether an activity is essential enough to waive the risks" to me indicates somebody whose risk meter is all out of whack. The first question should be from the kids interest. I.e., how much additional risk is a child exposed to from (for example) playing football. ANd the answer is, not much. If they aren't playing football, they will very likely be socializing in similar sized groups and possibly going to school in similar sized groups. Even if they don't do that, many of them will be working in jobs like retail that expose them to a good number of people. And of course, most importantly, for most of them, it's not a particularly serious threat as far as we know. If you ask most kids, "Would you give up high school sports and other group activities for two years of your high school and otherwise drastically reduce the number of people you interact with socially for two years, in order to cut your risk of catching COVID in half (which I'm not sure we can do), which means your risk of death from COVID would drop from something like 0.01% of dying of COVID to 0.005%, and also cut your risk from some as of yet unknown side effects by half, I think most teenagers would say "are you 17ing kidding me?", and I don't think they would answer that way b/c they are bad at assessing risk (although granted most teenagers are).

I don't take this personal and enjoy the dialogue. My take is until a kid turns 18, it's up to the parents since they are considered a minor. You can't vote or enlist in the military without parental permission until you're 18, yet we want to give them the ability to make these decisions. Hell, at that age I thought I was invincible. All the examples you provide should be done with parental input.

You can't do anything sports related these days without signing COVID waivers. Why is that? It's to protect the entity sanctioning those events. I think my view is pretty global regarding this. With all due respect, this topic appears to be hitting home for you for whatever reason (but I could be completely off base). Irregardless, having different opinions isn't always a negative.

[Liverpooldawg]

Mississippi re-imposed restrictions on elective surgery in Hinds, Madison, Rankin, Forrest, Jones, and Washington counties this afternoon. More counties are rumored to be coming. This is getting very, very serious and it's doing it very fast.

[hacker]

nm, found it

http://www.msdh.state.ms.us/msdhsite/index.cfm/23,8718,386,661,pdf/COVID-19_HOO_Medical_07062020.pdf

[hacker]

State Health Officer Dr. Thomas Dobbs said a public health order will be issued Tuesday that will restrict elective procedures in Hinds, Rankin, Madison, Forest, Jones and Washington counties. The order goes into effect Thursday.

Dobbs said the hospitals are running out of ICU beds.

“My greatest fear is starting to be realized,” Dobbs said about the growing number of COVID-19 patients in hospital beds.

“It’s dangerous to violate the social distancing rules, which a lot of people are doing,” Dobbs said. “You can’t put a lot of people together in the worst pandemic in history and expect nothing to happen. It’s just insane.”



Lol, I think commerce needs to email Dr. Dobbs and reassure him that nobody he knows is freaking out. Maybe it'll calm him down a bit.

[Schultzy]

90% of ICU beds in Texas are non Covid related.

[KOdawg1]

Lol, I think commerce needs to email Dr. Dobbs and reassure him that nobody he knows is freaking out. Maybe it'll calm him down a bit.
I think you need to look at yourself in the mirror and quit being an asshole.

[confucius say]

Last 3 day total was 11, so 55 over 4 days (~14/day). That's where we've been a while now, unfortunately

10 of today's were from June 17-18, so today's reported cases were 34, added to the 11 over the last three days = 45 over the last 4 days (11 per day). We have been averaging single digits, so it will be interesting if we see it staying around 10 or if jumps back higher over the next few days.

Now, of the total 44, 0 were under forty and 2 were under fifty. Only 5 were under sixty. So 39 of the 44 were over sixty. None of that is to downplay death, but just to show that our average hasn't moved off of about 10 deaths daily and the age of those dying hasn't changed.

[msstate7]

State Health Officer Dr. Thomas Dobbs said a public health order will be issued Tuesday that will restrict elective procedures in Hinds, Rankin, Madison, Forest, Jones and Washington counties. The order goes into effect Thursday.

Dobbs said the hospitals are running out of ICU beds.

“My greatest fear is starting to be realized,” Dobbs said about the growing number of COVID-19 patients in hospital beds.

“It’s dangerous to violate the social distancing rules, which a lot of people are doing,” Dobbs said. “You can’t put a lot of people together in the worst pandemic in history and expect nothing to happen. It’s just insane.”



Lol, I think commerce needs to email Dr. Dobbs and reassure him that nobody he knows is freaking out. Maybe it'll calm him down a bit.

Worst pandemic in history?

[KOdawg1]

Worst pandemic in history?

I lol'd at that too. Pretty sure the Black Plague takes that cake.

[hacker]

I think you need to look at yourself in the mirror and quit being an asshole.

It was a joke.

My point was Dobbs definitely sounds like he's freaking out. When I read it, I heard it in the "out here running the option in Hurricane Katrina" voice.

[dawgday166]

nm

[KOdawg1]

It was a joke.

My point was Dobbs definitely sounds like he's freaking out. When I read it, I heard it in the "out here running the option in Hurricane Katrina" voice.

It does seem like Dobbs and Tater are starting to take this more seriously. Nobody is listening to them tho.

[Joebob]

State fair of Texas was canceled today.

[Gutter Cobreh]

Last 3 day total was 11, so 55 over 4 days (~14/day). That's where we've been a while now, unfortunately


90% of ICU beds in Texas are non Covid related.

Neither mortality rate or case mix within the ICU matter. I'm not sure why folks get so hung up on this. Obviously, you want a low death rate but the point is (and has always been) bed capacity within a hospital. Patients aren't in ICU because they want to be and/or normal ICU patients don't stop needing that level of care because we're in a pandemic. You're always going to have a mix.

With elective surgeries being suspended, those health systems in those counties are about to start hemorrhaging cash. They'll still have the expenses because beds are occupied, but they won't be reimbursed at the level elective surgeries generate.

What happens when a business maintains their expenses and their revenues drop? They lay people off to cut costs and balance their budgets.

[dawgday166]

Saw this doctor on FB. Saw the video on someone else's FB page. Scroll down to the 4th video on this guys homepage and listen to his success rate using hydroxy + a couple other things. 75 patients ... no hospital stays per what he says. Has a friend that's a doc has same success with 5X the number of patients. Not sure how true but ...

https://www.facebook.com/michling

[hacker]

Neither mortality rate or case mix within the ICU matter. I'm not sure why folks get so hung up on this. Obviously, you want a low death rate but the point is (and has always been) bed capacity within a hospital. Patients aren't in ICU because they want to be and/or normal ICU patients don't stop needing that level of care because we're in a pandemic. You're always going to have a mix.

With elective surgeries being suspended, those health systems in those counties are about to start hemorrhaging cash. They'll still have the expenses because beds are occupied, but they won't be reimbursed at the level elective surgeries generate.

What happens when a business maintains their expenses and their revenues drop? They lay people off to cut costs and balance their budgets.

I'm not sure if there are still funds available or not, but at one point hospitals were getting government money for covid patients. If they still are, that could bridge the gap.

[Dawg2003]

I lol'd at that too. Pretty sure the Black Plague takes that cake.

He actually said the worst pandemic in a century. I watched the press conference, so someone transcribed that wrong.

[Dawg2003]

90% of ICU beds in Texas are non Covid related.

Yes, which is why dumping covid on top of what we normally see can overload the system. ICU beds are always tight in a metro area at baseline.

[Dawg2003]

Neither mortality rate or case mix within the ICU matter. I'm not sure why folks get so hung up on this. Obviously, you want a low death rate but the point is (and has always been) bed capacity within a hospital. Patients aren't in ICU because they want to be and/or normal ICU patients don't stop needing that level of care because we're in a pandemic. You're always going to have a mix.

With elective surgeries being suspended, those health systems in those counties are about to start hemorrhaging cash. They'll still have the expenses because beds are occupied, but they won't be reimbursed at the level elective surgeries generate.

What happens when a business maintains their expenses and their revenues drop? They lay people off to cut costs and balance their budgets.

Truth. Hospitals can't sustain themselves without elective procedures. We will have the beds for COVID patients. I've never been worried about that because all you have to do is cut back elective procedures to make space. The problem is that hospitals cannot financially sustain themselves without elective procedures.

[FISHDAWG]

It was a joke.

My point was Dobbs definitely sounds like he's freaking out. When I read it, I heard it in the "out here running the option in Hurricane Katrina" voice.

it wasn't a joke - you meant that shit to sound exactly like it sounded ... take KO's advice

[Liverpooldawg]

90% of ICU beds in Texas are non Covid related.

ICU beds are always at a premium. COVID patients are starting to displace the normal stuff in ICUs. Y'all just don't get how this works.

[Jack Lambert]

It does seem like Dobbs and Tater are starting to take this more seriously. Nobody is listening to them tho.

I don't think it's their fault. The WHO, CDC, Fauci, Birx are all over the map on things. No one is on same page. Facui has been caught without mask. When he is on camera he has it on. When off he does not. I have seen the photos. One says your ok outside but stay six feet apart but no mask. One says if outside wear mask and stay six feet about. That's just one example. Trump don't wear mask. Biden will wear a mask up to the podium to speak,then he takes it off to speak, when he is done he just walks away and leaves his mask in his pocket. I have been to LA, TX, NM, AZ, UT, CO, WY, OK in past three weeks. 1 out of 30 might have a mask. I go to the gym five days a week. It is packed. No one is wearing mask. They keep changing things and people are starting to call it all political bullshit. When you add in all the other bull shit you read or hear from the news, plus being shut down for so long, people are just tired of it and damn the torpedo let's move on. If this was not an election year, this whole virus thing would have been handle differently. We are a free people and we want to be free to live our lives. I am not scared, I am not wearing a mask, I am living my life. I wash my hands, I try to stay six feet away, if I have to sneeze or cough I walk as far away from anyone as possible cover my face with arm so it doesn't spray. My vulnerably family members are isolated.
.Call me what you want, I don't give a shit but I suspect there are a larger portion of Americans who feel like me that don't.

I am not going off on you. Please don't take it that way.

[Liverpooldawg]

Worst pandemic in history?

The actual quote was a century.

[Johnson85]

I don't take this personal and enjoy the dialogue. My take is until a kid turns 18, it's up to the parents since they are considered a minor. You can't vote or enlist in the military without parental permission until you're 18, yet we want to give them the ability to make these decisions. Hell, at that age I thought I was invincible. All the examples you provide should be done with parental input. I agree with this. If parents want to put their kids on lock downs, that's the role they're actually supposed to play.


You can't do anything sports related these days without signing COVID waivers. Why is that? It's to protect the entity sanctioning those events. I think my view is pretty global regarding this. With all due respect, this topic appears to be hitting home for you for whatever reason (but I could be completely off base). Irregardless, having different opinions isn't always a negative.

It's actually not hitting close to me. We haven't had any negative financial impacts. Schools closing were certainly bad for our kids like they were for most kids and they were starting to show some wear around the edges from the social distancing (although I'm not sure how much was from them missing their friends versus picking up on it wearing on us), but they were at I would guess as easy an age as it could be as far as not really missing out on stuff that would make lasting impressions on them.

I would be handling it very poorly if it were hitting us particularly hard just because so many of the negative impacts are needlessly self-inflicted. And the panic and poor logic and risk assessments would be much more forgivable if there wasn't so much bad faith and dishonesty involved.

[Liverpooldawg]

I don't think it's their fault. The WHO, CDC, Fauci, Birx are all over the map on things. No one is on same page. Facui has been caught without mask. When he is on camera he has it on. When off he does not. I have seen the photos. One says your ok outside but stay six feet apart but no mask. One says if outside wear mask and stay six feet about. That's just one example. Trump don't wear mask. Biden will wear a mask up to the podium to speak,then he takes it off to speak, when he is done he just walks away and leaves his mask in his pocket. I have been to LA, TX, NM, AZ, UT, CO, WY, OK in past three weeks. 1 out of 30 might have a mask. I go to the gym five days a week. It is packed. No one is wearing mask. They keep changing things and people are starting to call it all political bullshit. When you add in all the other bull shit you read or hear from the news, plus being shut down for so long, people are just tired of it and damn the torpedo let's move on. If this was not an election year, this whole virus thing would have been handle differently. We are a free people and we want to be free to live our lives. I am not scared, I am not wearing a mask, I am living my life. I wash my hands, I try to stay six feet away, if I have to sneeze or cough I walk as far away from anyone as possible cover my face with arm so it doesn't spray. My vulnerably family members are isolated.
.Call me what you want, I don't give a shit but I suspect there are a larger portion of Americans who feel like me that don't.

I am not going off on you. Please don't take it that way.

The reason is it IS political BS, but not in the way you implied. The politics is all on the side of not wearing masks and being as normal as you can be. The science is not saying that. It's people like Trump and Reeves (I voted for both) who are mixing yup the message.

[msstate7]

The actual quote was a century.

https://www.mphonline.org/worst-pandemics-in-history/

I really don't care... I got his point. I just thought the quote was ridiculous, and it fed into the fear porn.

[Jack Lambert]

The reason is it IS political BS, but not in the way you implied. The politics is all on the side of not wearing masks and being as normal as you can be. The science is not saying that. It's people like Trump and Reeves (I voted for both) who are mixing yup the message.

It is what I say it is. Both Birx and Fauci say different things. Fauci changes what he say every other time he is in front of the camera. They all making decision based on politics and definitely the media is making this all politics. By the way six months ago on the old politic board I started a thread about this virus before it reached the united states should we be worried and you made a long post that I should not.

[Johnson85]

The reason is it IS political BS, but not in the way you implied. The politics is all on the side of not wearing masks and being as normal as you can be. The science is not saying that. It's people like Trump and Reeves (I voted for both) who are mixing yup the message.

Trump you can blame for mixing up the message. I don't think you can blame Reeves except he caved to political pressure and did some stupid stuff, like lock down before it was necessary and close beaches and lakes.

The press is awful and a lot of our governors are awful (issuing executive orders prohibiting the use of some medicines is a gross abuse of power and stupid) and they are mostly all hypocrites and not following the advice they are claiming to believe is vital for the rest of the country to follow. We have a shitty political class and credentialed class. If they want people to act like they aren't shitty, they need to not be shitty for a while and wait for people to notice. Don't think there is a shortcut around that.

[hacker]

1280662317139742722

[yjnkdawg]

It was a joke.


It wasn't a joke. You took a direct stab at CC. If you had just wanted to take a stab at Dr. Dobbs then you would never have referenced CC. It's easy to call the shots from a message board, of what somebody did, or didn't do because you don't have to face the stress and reality of making real life health decisions that affect many many people (like a whole state), as some are faced with. Ever since you and your Corona Bro came in here both of you have wanted to be the smartest person in the room and get all the accolades. I saw that not long after you both came in here. Talking down to people and making a joke of what somebody said or trying to prove them wrong, if they didn't agree with your agenda, was your trademark, and apparently still is. I agree with what KO and FISHDAWG's advice was, but I highly doubt you will take it. CC knows more than you or your bro on what is going on in the real life Corona world, and didn't use statistics, twitter or googling to fit an agenda. If you didn't comprehend what CC actually meant then I can't help you with reading comprehension. This thread turned into crap, has been a joke, and has basically been an agenda and a "look at me" driven thread shortly after you both arrived. If people can't see that, then I can't help them either.

[Liverpooldawg]

Trump you can blame for mixing up the message. I don't think you can blame Reeves except he caved to political pressure and did some stupid stuff, like lock down before it was necessary and close beaches and lakes.

The press is awful and a lot of our governors are awful (issuing executive orders prohibiting the use of some medicines is a gross abuse of power and stupid) and they are mostly all hypocrites and not following the advice they are claiming to believe is vital for the rest of the country to follow. We have a shitty political class and credentialed class. If they want people to act like they aren't shitty, they need to not be shitty for a while and wait for people to notice. Don't think there is a shortcut around that.

The only thing I fault Reeves for is not issuing a mask order. He is a good little sheep.

[Dawgology]

This virus is not the worst pandemic in history....it's not even the worst pandemic in the past century...it's not even the worst pandemic in the past 50 years.

Hong Kong Flu killed 1 million+ people between 1968-1970
Asian Flu killed 1.1 million+ people between 1957-1958
The HIV/AIDS epidemic has killed over 35 million people since 1981

In fact, in the list of 20+ pandemic/virus associated events thoughout history it falls in the lower tier and that is with connectivity throughout the world unlike any time in history.

This isn't to downplay the danger associated to the virus it is to bring some perspective to what is happening right now. You can literally wear a cloth mask and make this thing pretty much go away over about a period of 3 months....and we can't even do that...

[hacker]

It wasn't a joke. You took a direct stab at CC. If you had just wanted to take a stab at Dr. Dobbs then you would never have referenced CC. It's easy to call the shots from a message board, of what somebody did, or didn't do because you don't have to face the stress and reality of making real life health decisions that affect many many people (like a whole state), as some are faced with. Ever since you and your Corona Bro came in here both of you have wanted to be the smartest person in the room and get all the accolades. I saw that not long after you both came in here. Talking down to people and making a joke of what somebody said or trying to prove them wrong, if they didn't agree with your agenda, was your trademark, and apparently still is. I agree with what KO and FISHDAWG's advice was, but I highly doubt you will take it. CC knows more than you or your bro on what is going on in the real life Corona world, and didn't use statistics, twitter or googling to fit an agenda. If you didn't comprehend what CC actually meant then I can't help you with reading comprehension. This thread turned into crap, has been a joke, and has basically been an agenda and a "look at me" driven thread shortly after you both arrived. If people can't see that, then I can't help them either.

It literally was a lighthearted joke. Maybe it would've been better worded as something like "now we know commerce doesn't know Dr. Dobbs." Is that still an asshole thing to say? I mean, I believe I've seen a lot worse directed at me and others

[Liverpooldawg]

It is what I say it is. Both Birx and Fauci say different things. Fauci changes what he say every other time he is in front of the camera. They all making decision based on politics and definitely the media is making this all politics. By the way six months ago on the old politic board I started a thread about this virus before it reached the united states should we be worried and you made a long post that I should not.

Data changes. Y'all don't get how this works STILL. This isn't an off the shelf virus that we know everything about how it will act. People like to compare it to the flu but it's not the same. With flu the new ones are still flu. We have a pretty good idea how they will act because they are still flu. This one hasn't acted much like even the other corona viruses. It's all new. As we learn more the message will change. It's going to keep changing because we still don't really know much about it. A lot of the problem early on is that China and the WHO downplayed it big time to begin with. Remember SIX MONTHS ago when they said there had to be close prolonged contact with a symptomatic person to catch it? You don't worry about those too much. They are easy to trace and stop. China has done it many times. It turns out that that initial public info was not correct. Anybody who is still saying the same thing they said back then based on the data that was presented as correct back then is stupid.

[msstate7]

Yeah, hacker didn't do anything most of the rest do too. Hacker just happened to do it to the nicest guy here, so it rubbed some wrong.

[Jack Lambert]

Data changes. Y'all don't get how this works STILL. This isn't an off the shelf virus that we know everything about how it will act. People like to compare it to the flu but it's not the same. With flu the new ones are still flu. We have a pretty good idea how they will act because they are still flu. This one hasn't acted much like even the other corona viruses. It's all new. As we learn more the message will change. It's going to keep changing because we still don't really know much about it. A lot of the problem early on is that China and the WHO downplayed it big time to begin with. Remember SIX MONTHS ago when they said there had to be close prolonged contact with a symptomatic person to catch it? You don't worry about those too much. They are easy to trace and stop. China has done it many times. It turns out that that initial public info was not correct. Anybody who is still saying the same thing they said back then based on the data that was presented as correct back then is stupid.

I agree on a lot of that. I was really just busting your balls for fun. I apologize if you thought I was being serious.

[Liverpooldawg]

This virus is not the worst pandemic in history....it's not even the worst pandemic in the past century...it's not even the worst pandemic in the past 50 years.

Hong Kong Flu killed 1 million+ people between 1968-1970
Asian Flu killed 1.1 million+ people between 1957-1958
The HIV/AIDS epidemic has killed over 35 million people since 1981

In fact, in the list of 20+ pandemic/virus associated events thoughout history it falls in the lower tier and that is with connectivity throughout the world unlike any time in history.

This isn't to downplay the danger associated to the virus it is to bring some perspective to what is happening right now. You can literally wear a cloth mask and make this thing pretty much go away over about a period of 3 months....and we can't even do that...

Dobbs didn't say history. As for your others, in the flu examples you are using estimated figures for the entire pandemic. We are six months into this one. For AIDS, that's nearly 40 years. I agree on the masks. We have a lot of very stupid people right now, VERY stupid. Our President, who I voted for, is the worst. He could set an example, but he refuses to do so for political reasons. It's insane.

[yjnkdawg]

It literally was a lighthearted joke. Maybe it would've been better worded as something like "now we know commerce doesn't know Dr. Dobbs." Is that still an asshole thing to say? I mean, I believe I've seen a lot worse directed at me and others


A lighthearted joke? Really? It would have been better worded if you left CC out of the equation altogether. He is no longer here to defend himself. So why do you need to include him in your so-called joke? To make fun of what you thought his position was concerning the virus? On the other comments being a lot worse to you and others. like I said I think this thread turned into crap.

[StateDawg44]

Data changes. Y'all don't get how this works STILL. This isn't an off the shelf virus that we know everything about how it will act. People like to compare it to the flu but it's not the same. With flu the new ones are still flu. We have a pretty good idea how they will act because they are still flu. This one hasn't acted much like even the other corona viruses. It's all new. As we learn more the message will change. It's going to keep changing because we still don't really know much about it. A lot of the problem early on is that China and the WHO downplayed it big time to begin with. Remember SIX MONTHS ago when they said there had to be close prolonged contact with a symptomatic person to catch it? You don't worry about those too much. They are easy to trace and stop. China has done it many times. It turns out that that initial public info was not correct. Anybody who is still saying the same thing they said back then based on the data that was presented as correct back then is stupid.


You don't say?**

Yet, in Feb. & March many of us were saying no one knows anything about this and it's too early to be casting out speculation as fact (fear mongering) we were the ones being ridiculed as dumb.

It's all just how you want to spin this shit at this point if you have an agenda.

[Turfdawg67]

A lighthearted joke? Really? It would have been better worded if you left CC out of the equation altogether. He is no longer here to defend himself. So why do you need to include him in your so-called joke? To make fun of what you thought his position was concerning the virus? On the other comments being a lot worse to you and others. like I said I think this thread turned into crap.

Yes really. Y'all are piling on because you don't like Hacker's perceived politics, period. He and CC were going back and forth on Covid-19 and people freaking out. Dobbs is pretty much freaking out, so Hacker jokingly said CC should call him. Ooooh... so mean.

[Gutter Cobreh]

I'm not sure if there are still funds available or not, but at one point hospitals were getting government money for covid patients. If they still are, that could bridge the gap.

I believe (not 100%) that health systems had a couple options - (1) Cares Act and/or PPP loan and a advancement on their Medicare payments. The PPP loans wouldn't have to be paid back if they maintain their staffing levels. The Medicare payments are a bit of a catch 22, since the health system would be reimbursed now at a rate higher than normal - BUT the government offsets that later by reducing the reimbursement and recouping their dollars.

I think there is also a premium for treating COVID patients (20% is what I've seen), but none of the above offsets the loss of elective surgery revenues.

If the cancellation of electives happens where you live and the government fails to step in to bridge the gap, it is going to demolish your local hospital.

[Gutter Cobreh]

Yeah, hacker didn't do anything most of the rest do too. Hacker just happened to do it to the nicest guy here, so it rubbed some wrong.

This is true! The joke should have been directed at Dawgfan77. CC simply corroborated/supported Dawg's posts in his typical positive posting style.


Yes really. Y'all are piling on because you don't like Hacker's perceived politics, period. He and CC were going back and forth on Covid-19 and people freaking out. Dobbs is pretty much freaking out, so Hacker jokingly said CC should call him. Ooooh... so mean.

It is my belief that some that had become dismissive are now the ones starting to pay closer attention because the virus is getting closer to their daily lives. All Hacker has tried to do (from my viewpoint) during all of this is simply point out the probability that this would happen. Each time he did so, he was attacked because he wasn't being positive enough - which itself is nonsense.

As Liverpool has pointed out with his last few posts today, there is still a lot of misinformation out there. Blame the government, the media, or whomever you'd like but the facts remain that this is considered a "novel" virus - which means it's new. Fauci was against masks initially because there were not enough in this country for everyone to have one and he can also be fired by the POTUS. As we've seen this administration isn't to keen on keeping people around that disagree with their stance on issues.

[confucius say]

It is hard to say it is not political on both sides Liverpool. Youve pointed out the right. But how can the left not condemn the millions of people protesting a month ago shouting and hollering and at the same time a liberal governor bans singing and chanting in churches (even while wearing a mask)? That is weighing the importance of protesting for a cause vs worshipping and deciding one is important enough to allow and one is not. That is as political as it gets.
The virus is a real threat to a portion of our population, but it is also political on both sides.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/amp/Religious-freedom-advocates-object-to-California-15392201.php

[confucius say]

This is true! The joke should have been directed at Dawgfan77. CC simply corroborated/supported Dawg's posts in his typical positive posting style.



It is my belief that some that had become dismissive are now the ones starting to pay closer attention because the virus is getting closer to their daily lives. All Hacker has tried to do (from my viewpoint) during all of this is simply point out the probability that this would happen. Each time he did so, he was attacked because he wasn't being positive enough - which itself is nonsense.

As Liverpool has pointed out with his last few posts today, there is still a lot of misinformation out there. Blame the government, the media, or whomever you'd like but the facts remain that this is considered a "novel" virus - which means it's new. Fauci was against masks initially because there were not enough in this country for everyone to have one and he can also be fired by the POTUS. As we've seen this administration isn't to keen on keeping people around that disagree with their stance on issues.

Fauci wasn't against masks. According to him, he knew all along they were needed but lied on purpose to the public bc he was worried there would not be enough PPE for health workers. One could argue he was doing the right thing by lying to protect health workers, but it also is why nobody trusts him. If the guy will admit he Knowingly said something untrue, even for a good reason, a lot of people are not going to trust him. (And I believe in masks, I'm just saying I get why people don't trust Fauci).

[Gutter Cobreh]

Fauci wasn't against masks. According to him, he knew all along they were needed but lied on purpose to the public bc he was worried there would not be enough PPE for health workers. One could argue he was doing the right thing by lying to protect health workers, but it also is why nobody trusts him. If the guy will admit he Knowingly said something untrue, even for a good reason, a lot of people are not going to trust him. (And I believe in masks, I'm just saying I get why people don't trust Fauci).

I agree w/ you; I misspoke. He's served under something like 6 different administrations, so he's a defacto politician himself. He's going to walk that tight rope so he can stay in his position. His grave mistake was not being honest around masks in the beginning, and I agree with you and anyone else who doesn't necessarily trust him. Unfortunately, I think he was pressured by a narcissist to lie - but in the end made the decision himself to get up and utter the words that masks were not needed.

[WinningIsRelentless]

I believe (not 100%) that health systems had a couple options - (1) Cares Act and/or PPP loan and a advancement on their Medicare payments. The PPP loans wouldn't have to be paid back if they maintain their staffing levels. The Medicare payments are a bit of a catch 22, since the health system would be reimbursed now at a rate higher than normal - BUT the government offsets that later by reducing the reimbursement and recouping their dollars.

I think there is also a premium for treating COVID patients (20% is what I've seen), but none of the above offsets the loss of elective surgery revenues.

If the cancellation of electives happens where you live and the government fails to step in to bridge the gap, it is going to demolish your local hospital.

Most hospitals employee more than 500 employees so they didn?t qualify for PPP.

[Johnson85]

I agree w/ you; I misspoke. He's served under something like 6 different administrations, so he's a defacto politician himself. He's going to walk that tight rope so he can stay in his position. His grave mistake was not being honest around masks in the beginning, and I agree with you and anyone else who doesn't necessarily trust him. Unfortunately, I think he was pressured by a narcissist to lie - but in the end made the decision himself to get up and utter the words that masks were not needed.

He really should have been fired for the mask thing. Even if you grant that he had a good motive and it ultimately helped protect our healthcare system, he needs to be fired as a matter of practicality. If it was important enough to lie to the american people over, it's important enough to fall on the sword over. If masks are important, the best thing we could do is fire fauci (although it's probably late at this point) and find a few people that made apologies for the protests or gave a half hearted condemnation and fire them with the message of "This is a serious matter and masks are important. We fired the people that lied about the masks and that treated it cavalierly by pretending it wasn't serious as soon as it was politically expedient. We need people to go back to social distancing and wearing masks. We're sorry that we inadvertently gave a different message, you can trust us going forward."

May be too little too late, but can't hurt to try.

[Turfdawg67]

He really should have been fired for the mask thing. Even if you grant that he had a good motive and it ultimately helped protect our healthcare system, he needs to be fired as a matter of practicality. If it was important enough to lie to the american people over, it's important enough to fall on the sword over. If masks are important, the best thing we could do is fire fauci (although it's probably late at this point) and find a few people that made apologies for the protests or gave a half hearted condemnation and fire them with the message of "This is a serious matter and masks are important. We fired the people that lied about the masks and that treated it cavalierly by pretending it wasn't serious as soon as it was politically expedient. We need people to go back to social distancing and wearing masks. We're sorry that we inadvertently gave a different message, you can trust us going forward."

May be too little too late, but can't hurt to try.

Fauci, the CDC, the WHO and Trump all said as late as February 29th that masks aren't necessary. The reasoning was they didn't realize at the time how contagious it could be from asymptomatic carriers, so they wanted healthcare workers, who would be dealing with people with obvious symptoms, to have adequate supplies. Studies showed differently so now most of the above adamantly suggest to wearing masks.

[Dawgology]

Fauci, the CDC, the WHO and Trump all said as late as February 29th that masks aren't necessary. The reasoning was they didn't realize at the time how contagious it could be from asymptomatic carriers, so they wanted healthcare workers, who would be dealing with people with obvious symptoms, to have adequate supplies. Studies showed differently so now most of the above adamantly suggest to wearing masks.

But then there is this from the WHO from a few weeks ago:

http://www.emro.who.int/health-topics/corona-virus/transmission-of-covid-19-by-asymptomatic-cases.html

[Turfdawg67]

But then there is this from the WHO from a few weeks ago:

http://www.emro.who.int/health-topics/corona-virus/transmission-of-covid-19-by-asymptomatic-cases.html

The first part said "the evidence suggests" then the last part says how difficult it is to do research on asymptomatic people. So... who the 17 knows. I'll say this... it took us 98 days to hit 1MM cases, 55 more days to hit 2MM cases and 15 more days to hit 3MM. It ain't being spread just by people that are obviously sick.

[Dawgfan77]

This is true! The joke should have been directed at Dawgfan77. CC simply corroborated/supported Dawg's posts in his typical positive posting style.



It is my belief that some that had become dismissive are now the ones starting to pay closer attention because the virus is getting closer to their daily lives. All Hacker has tried to do (from my viewpoint) during all of this is simply point out the probability that this would happen. Each time he did so, he was attacked because he wasn't being positive enough - which itself is nonsense.

As Liverpool has pointed out with his last few posts today, there is still a lot of misinformation out there. Blame the government, the media, or whomever you'd like but the facts remain that this is considered a "novel" virus - which means it's new. Fauci was against masks initially because there were not enough in this country for everyone to have one and he can also be fired by the POTUS. As we've seen this administration isn't to keen on keeping people around that disagree with their stance on issues.

Ok... here is where I draw a line. I never once attacked you. Was I debating hacker and commi dan. Yes. Did i state somethings you took out of context probably. I don't agree the Hack and Dan the commi and liberalpool dawg but I didn't appreciate them attacking me because I had a different view. I am not going to live in fear of this virus as you are but I will take precautions to ensure I don't hurt anyone. Including you. I wear a mask and I will live my life. As for you I hope you are mature enough to see that everyone has an opinion I prefer to be optimistic you prefer to be pessimistic.

You didn't have to bring me back into the conversation but shows your true colors

[99jc]

I hate Covidzona! I cant take this crap much longer may shoot myself in the foot. Hail State!

[BrunswickDawg]

I hate Covidzona! I cant take this crap much longer may shoot myself in the foot. Hail State!

Just don't go full on Klinger.

https://media2.giphy.com/media/l4Epbfit34mYCo4SY/giphy.gif

[hacker]

I hate Covidzona! I cant take this crap much longer may shoot myself in the foot. Hail State!

What are you seeing over there?

[KOdawg1]

Yeah, hacker didn't do anything most of the rest do too. Hacker just happened to do it to the nicest guy here, so it rubbed some wrong.

Haha pretty much. I don't even know CC personally, but he's like the highly respected uncle on the board. You don't mess with Uncle CC.

[KOdawg1]

who the 17 knows

These four words accurately describe the last 4 months

[99jc]

What are you seeing over there?

5000 new cases today....we are setting up a huge testing site in West Phoenix and everyone is blaming the govt for this surge when these a-holes opened too soon. Sick people everywhere and this is getting old. This is not a good time to be a Federal officer exposed to the public and their rudeness. Now hearing there may be no football at all. I am glad they haven't closed the liquor stores.

[hacker]

Elective surgeries postponed statewide now.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EcmcD52XgAAhIob?format=png&name=small

[confucius say]

Elective surgeries postponed statewide now.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EcmcD52XgAAhIob?format=png&name=small

Is there any data on how many of these positive tests at hospitals are asymptomatic and have no covid related health issues? I know they test you at a hospital now regardless of why you are being treated at the hospital. Any insight on whether that number is significant?

[msstate7]

We broke 70k today in cases.

[Homedawg]

We broke 70k today in cases.

Just 98% to go.....

[confucius say]

We broke 70k today in cases.

How deaths look?

[msstate7]

Just 98% to go.....

CDC estimates 10-12x the documented cases, so if they right, 32-38 million. If their est is correct, we closer than 98%.

[msstate7]

How deaths look?

849

They look to be trending up some.

[confucius say]

Similar to last few days. Slightly down. Will be interesting to see if they continue to climb or level off. They had to go back up at least some with such a huge case rise

[starkvegasdawg]

Vaccine by Pfizer showing promise in clinical trials. Saying early results showing it is producing antibodies equal to greater antibodies than the actual virus.

[msstate7]

Vaccine by Pfizer showing promise in clinical trials. Saying early results showing it is producing antibodies equal to greater antibodies than the actual virus.

If it pans out, phizer will make a boat load of money

[KOdawg1]

Vaccine by Pfizer showing promise in clinical trials. Saying early results showing it is producing antibodies equal to greater antibodies than the actual virus.

An article I read said that two treatment options are showing promise. Chemical 11-A and monoclonal antibodies. 11A is an antiviral that attaches to the protease and essentially halts replication. Animal trials have proven to be encouraging, and human trials start soon. The monoclonal antibodies are more of a preventative treatment that stops the virus before it starts. 2,000 people will take part in these trials in the coming weeks. The good thing about these types of treatments are that the trial process goes by much quicker than the vaccine trials. Yeah, a vaccine that would nip this shit in the bud would be nice, but if we can figure out a way effectively treat this thing, the wait for a vaccine becomes less urgent.

[Homedawg]

CDC estimates 10-12x the documented cases, so if they right, 32-38 million. If their est is correct, we closer than 98%.

Agree. But that won't be the motto. And either way a ton to go and that's assuming immunity which Is probably not that likely.

[Homedawg]

849

They look to be trending up some.
Have you checked death by suicide? Depression numbers up 40% ...

[msstate7]

Sweden's case numbers look to be going down considerably. Is anyone following it closely enough to know if testing is remaining consistent? Have they changed policies? It would be a pretty good sign for us if they are starting to hit herd immunity.

https://i.postimg.cc/Nf1NbxGh/77-D8-DA13-DDD3-4059-BBEA-5-B2333-E40873.jpg (https://postimg.cc/kBgFgKtw)

[hacker]

Sweden's case numbers look to be going down considerably. Is anyone following it closely enough to know if testing is remaining consistent? Have they changed policies? It would be a pretty good sign for us if they are starting to hit herd immunity.

https://i.postimg.cc/Nf1NbxGh/77-D8-DA13-DDD3-4059-BBEA-5-B2333-E40873.jpg (https://postimg.cc/kBgFgKtw)

Seems to be getting better there. However, they still have had 12x as many deaths per capita as Norway and the impact on the economy is about the same.

[hacker]

nm

[msstate7]

Delete

[msstate7]

Seems to be getting better there. However, they still have had 12x as many deaths per capita as Norway and the impact on the economy is about the same.

At this point, I'm more interested in why the cases are dropping. If they're hitting a herd immunity wall, this summer surge could end up not being such a bad thing for us.

[hacker]

At this point, I'm more interested in why the cases are dropping. If they're hitting a herd immunity wall, this summer surge could end up not being such a bad thing for us.

Yeah, I'm also interested in what's going on. I found this:


Experts pointed to a host of reasons for the shifting numbers. They credited myriad factors, including the arrival of summer, with fewer people in offices creating more distance, and Sweden quietly taking steps to protect people in care homes. Johan Carlson, the director-general of Sweden's public health agency, credited the "effect of us keeping up the social distancing" for the decline.

...

"The short answer is, that there is no short answer," Pekka Nuorti, an epidemiologist in Finland's Tampere University, told Business Insider, pointing to changes in testing, changes in behaviors, and more time spent outside.


Some more tidbits in there: https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-coronavirus-cases-deaths-fall-not-mean-lockdown-plan-worked-2020-7

It looks like their testing is about the same as it's been.

https://i.imgur.com/77kjpWB.png

[confucius say]

At this point, I'm more interested in why the cases are dropping. If they're hitting a herd immunity wall, this summer surge could end up not being such a bad thing for us.

I've had same thoughts. Could that explain New York also. They are having 1/10 the cases they had in April.
That is why you make no decisions affecting sept and October right now.

[starkvegasdawg]

Just found out my cousin has it. Not hospitalized at this time. Said she always wears a mask but for whatever reason went to a wedding and funeral without it and that did it.

[hacker]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EcrUXLFU4AAGGEd?format=png&name=medium

First weekly rise in deaths since April

[dantheman4248]

Donny boy bent the knee to the crazies and put on the mask publicly.

To quote Mr. Graham: "Better late than never, but never late is better."

[Liverpooldawg]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EcrUXLFU4AAGGEd?format=png&name=medium

First weekly rise in deaths since April

Deaths always are a lagging indicator. If you didn't see that coming you are stupid. It will get worse. Want it to eventually go down without a lockdown, wear a 17ing mask.

[msstate7]

https://i.postimg.cc/MZ5gfRZW/0551-AC62-4-FCD-4-CF5-860-F-23627-ACE0-D01.jpg (https://postimg.cc/t71BLsVf)

https://twitter.com/frankfurtzack/status/1282030657062002690?s=21

[Liverpooldawg]

https://i.postimg.cc/MZ5gfRZW/0551-AC62-4-FCD-4-CF5-860-F-23627-ACE0-D01.jpg (https://postimg.cc/t71BLsVf)

https://twitter.com/frankfurtzack/status/1282030657062002690?s=21

Oh, it's only a severe flu season....a disease we have a vaccination for and several drugs that specifically treat it. Got any evidence to counteract those FACTS? I
will spare you the humiliation...,.you don't. I take it you haven't been personally affected yet. Hopefully you never are.

[msstate7]

Oh, it's only a severe flu season....a disease we have a vaccination for and several drugs that specifically treat it. Got any evidence to counteract those FACTS? I
will spare you the humiliation...,.you don't. I take it you haven't been personally affected yet. Hopefully you never are.

I didn't tweet that. He presented his evidence. Join in on his thread to contradict his evidence. I just found it interesting. Are you saying his chart is incorrect? It could be for all I know

[hacker]

https://i.postimg.cc/MZ5gfRZW/0551-AC62-4-FCD-4-CF5-860-F-23627-ACE0-D01.jpg (https://postimg.cc/t71BLsVf)

https://twitter.com/frankfurtzack/status/1282030657062002690?s=21

https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-us.s3.amazonaws.com%2F8991bb08-b584-11ea-8ecb-0994e384dffe?dpr=2&fit=scale-down&quality=medium&source=next&width=1260

None of the recent years compare on this graph

Also, not sure if I linked this before, but it's a good comparison:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/10/world/coronavirus-history.html

[msstate7]

https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-us.s3.amazonaws.com%2F8991bb08-b584-11ea-8ecb-0994e384dffe?dpr=2&fit=scale-down&quality=medium&source=next&width=1260

None of the recent years compare on this graph

Also, not sure if I linked this before, but it's a good comparison:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/10/world/coronavirus-history.html

Can't get the article without creating account... How far back does the NYT compare death rates? The guy above (no blue checkmark, granted) uses many of the same countries but shows some higher spikes within the past 20 years.

One thing that could be leading to the discrepancy is it's unclear what month he stops at in 2020.

[msstate7]

https://i.postimg.cc/4x5w5c49/78549-A5-F-42-DC-44-C2-9773-B85417-CFF50-A.jpg (https://postimg.cc/k22xMBbJ)

https://twitter.com/rebelacole/status/1282061281361616896?s=21

...

This seems to be a pretty big deal

[msstate7]

https://i.postimg.cc/fyzRY18X/8197-C152-82-A6-4-E4-E-B8-AF-C24-D31128777.jpg (https://postimg.cc/5YrJVKdN)

https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1282300300087287808?s=21

[hacker]

https://i.postimg.cc/4x5w5c49/78549-A5-F-42-DC-44-C2-9773-B85417-CFF50-A.jpg (https://postimg.cc/k22xMBbJ)

https://twitter.com/rebelacole/status/1282061281361616896?s=21

...

This seems to be a pretty big deal

Why? There are some with 0% too. And everywhere in between. Should we also assume that 9% of those are actually positive and add them to the positive cases?

http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/state_reports_latest.pdf

[confucius say]

Why? There are some with 0% too. And everywhere in between. Should we also assume that 9% of those are actually positive and add them to the positive cases?

http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/state_reports_latest.pdf

You don't think it's suspicious that a lab tests 444 people in a day and every Single test was returned positive? Am I reading the chart wrong?

[msstate7]

Why? There are some with 0% too. And everywhere in between. Should we also assume that 9% of those are actually positive and add them to the positive cases?

http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/state_reports_latest.pdf

0% is much more likely than 100%, right? How many 0s vs 100s?

[Dawg2003]

I wouldn't doubt there are more positive tests in Florida because they probably don't have the man power to process all the tests everyday.

[msstate7]

I wouldn't doubt there are more positive tests in Florida because they probably don't have the man power to process all the tests everyday.

I think there are more cases everywhere than being reported. On this issue though, I think reporting total tests is important. Positive % is a huge indicator of where you are with the virus... cooking the number either way should be unacceptable

[Dawg2003]

I was messing around on Wikipedia trying to find the case mortality rate for Covid, and I found a page where it breaks it down by age group and state. It said that the mortality rate for 60-69 years olds in Mississippi is 16%. I looked at that because my parents are in their 60s. That's terrible if true. It was Wikipedia, so take it for what it's worth. I didn't look into their sources.

[hacker]

I think there could be a lot of explanations, especially with backlogged test results where they just dump positives on one day. There are a shitload with 0%, 1%, 2%, 10%, 20% ... 80%, 90%, 98%, etc. There is a full distribution from 0% to 100%. It doesn't look suspicious to me.

Some days, Mississippi reports 100% test positives for the state. I really think you'd have to look at one of those particular lab's reports for the whole week to have an understanding.

[hacker]

I was messing around on Wikipedia trying to find the case mortality rate for Covid, and I found a page where it breaks it down by age group and state. It said that the mortality rate for 60-69 years olds in Mississippi is 16%. I looked at that because my parents are in their 60s. That's terrible if true. It was Wikipedia, so take it for what it's worth. I didn't look into their sources.

6.6% using the latest official state data, which is better, but still an awful prognosis.

[Dawg2003]

6.6% using the latest official state data, which is better, but still an awful prognosis.

That's terrible. Did you find that on the MSDH website?

[starkvegasdawg]

18-29 age group now is far the group with the highest number of cases by almost 2,000. Second highest group is 30-39 followed by 40-49.

[hacker]

That's terrible. Did you find that on the MSDH website?

Yep, from this image:

https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/images/graphics/covid19-chart-age-07-10.png

[hacker]

Speaking of Florida, 15300 new cases there today. NY's largest daily count was 11661.

[confucius say]

6.6% using the latest official state data, which is better, but still an awful prognosis.

I wonder if the cdc x 10 factor applies across all age groups. If so, the cdc x 10 factor reduces that to .66%.

[msstate7]

68% percent of people at a New York Clinic tested positive for coronavirus antibodies,

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/68-25-percent-of-people-at-a-new-york-clinic-tested-positive-for-coronavirus-antibodies/ar-BB16BiuN

[msstate7]

Speaking of Florida, 15300 new cases there today. NY's largest daily count was 11661.

NY's 7-day case avg peak was April 10th, and their 7-day death avg peak was April 12th. If you're a death is a lagging stat guy, then NY missed a boat load of cases 2-4 weeks before April 12th. If you think NY was competent testing, death stats are very encouraging for Florida. Florida not issuing death sentences on their LTC centers is probably helping their death comparison to NY though.

[hacker]

I wonder if the cdc x 10 factor applies across all age groups. If so, the cdc x 10 factor reduces that to .66%.

I wouldn't think you could apply that uniformly across all age groups. There are less asymptomatic cases as you go higher in age. Therefore, as you go higher in age, infections are more likely to get tested and reported.

[confucius say]

I wouldn't think you could apply that uniformly across all age groups. There are less asymptomatic cases as you go higher in age. Therefore, as you go higher in age, infections are more likely to get tested and reported.

Prob so. Prob more like x 20 factor for under 25 and x 5 factor for over 55.

[hacker]

NY's 7-day case avg peak was April 10th, and their 7-day death avg peak was April 12th. If you're a death is a lagging stat guy, then NY missed a boat load of cases 2-4 weeks before April 12th. If you think NY was competent testing, death stats are very encouraging for Florida. Florida not issuing death sentences on their LTC centers is probably helping their death comparison to NY though.

I don't think it's just the stats that show deaths are a lagging indicator. From case reports, we know that people usually spend weeks in the hospital before they die.

But stats do show this as well. If you look at the states with the worst outbreaks that started increasing mid-June, it's pretty clear:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EcrXrWtU0AAdOSB?format=png&name=medium

[msstate7]

If you have type A blood, you might wanna invest in a high quality mask...

https://www.pix11.com/news/national/coronavirus/study-could-your-blood-type-indicate-severity-of-covid-19

[msstate7]

I don't think it's just the stats that show deaths are a lagging indicator. From case reports, we know that people usually spend weeks in the hospital before they die.

But stats do show this as well. If you look at the states with the worst outbreaks that started increasing mid-June, it's pretty clear:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EcrXrWtU0AAdOSB?format=png&name=medium

https://i.postimg.cc/zv16wGm1/859-FC654-9-EE7-4-EC4-8-C1-B-28-A448367470.jpg (https://postimg.cc/phqsRxX0)

https://i.postimg.cc/VkNTWhh5/1932-BBA6-BEBA-45-FE-9-DF1-6-C98-F98-CE512.jpg (https://postimg.cc/ykwvVLsz)

If deaths lag 4-weeks, then we gotta figure the absolute peak of cases was around March 18th. The 7-day case avg on March 18th was 1,147, so we were way off on cases. This also makes me believe COVID19 has been here much longer than we thought.

[BrunswickDawg]

This also makes me believe COVID19 has been here much longer than we thought.

Well, if they finding it in sewage samples from November in Brazil - odds are it was here much earlier than thought.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.26.20140731v1

[Dawgfan77]

Ok so a buddy of mine in LA went to get a test. The completed paperwork which includes name phone number and email on Friday. Didn't get the test done said line was to long. Fast forward to Sunday afternoon. He and his wife both get emails saying they are C19 positive. No test done but they were counted as positive in LA.

Thoughts??

[msstate7]

https://i.postimg.cc/8PTVJFKT/DFB98-DCE-6-D16-4637-9-CB6-E2727-F572650.jpg (https://postimg.cc/dDNfg0cf)

https://twitter.com/pdubdev/status/1282426815307345920?s=21

[dawgday166]

Ok so a buddy of mine in LA went to get a test. The completed paperwork which includes name phone number and email on Friday. Didn't get the test done said line was to long. Fast forward to Sunday afternoon. He and his wife both get emails saying they are C19 positive. No test done but they were counted as positive in LA.

Thoughts??

Probably why cases are "exploding" in some places and deaths are still decreasing. Of course the virus could've mutated too ... which would be a good thing.

[dawgday166]

https://i.postimg.cc/8PTVJFKT/DFB98-DCE-6-D16-4637-9-CB6-E2727-F572650.jpg (https://postimg.cc/dDNfg0cf)

https://twitter.com/pdubdev/status/1282426815307345920?s=21

Nostradamus predicted an earthquake to hit CA in 2020 with most of CA going into Pacific. I wish it would hurry up and happen ****** He also predicted one to hit NYC sometime in 2050 or so too I believe ... dammit why so long out ******

[Dawgology]

Something really interesting happened last night.

Got Covid-19 tests results back in under an hour....

How the **** did that happen?

[Dawgology]

https://i.postimg.cc/8PTVJFKT/DFB98-DCE-6-D16-4637-9-CB6-E2727-F572650.jpg (https://postimg.cc/dDNfg0cf)

https://twitter.com/pdubdev/status/1282426815307345920?s=21

Teachers Union asking to defund police but will be screaming and crying for their help during the next school shooting.

Good luck with that.

[iPat09]

Something really interesting happened last night.

Got Covid-19 tests results back in under an hour....

How the **** did that happen?

Someone I know got tested last Tuesday and still hasn't gotten results back.

[StateDawg44]

Ok so a buddy of mine in LA went to get a test. The completed paperwork which includes name phone number and email on Friday. Didn't get the test done said line was to long. Fast forward to Sunday afternoon. He and his wife both get emails saying they are C19 positive. No test done but they were counted as positive in LA.

Thoughts??


And you heard this from your buddy's mouth?

I'm not doubting you or him or that this is taking place all over.

Just a question because I'm here in TN and have heard the same story from a co-worker about his friend here. Almost seems too blatant to get the numbers inflated.

[William Tecumsah Sherman]

CDC estimates up to 40% of actual COVID infections are asymptomatic. What do we make of this? Is this good or bad?

[revdrdawg]

It will depend on the degree to which asymptomatic cases can spread the virus. It is certainly better for those 40% who get it and get over it quickly (as long as there are no long term after effects). It makes it much harder to keep the virus away from the vulnerable.

[Dawgfan77]

And you heard this from your buddy's mouth?

I'm not doubting you or him or that this is taking place all over.

Just a question because I'm here in TN and have heard the same story from a co-worker about his friend here. Almost seems too blatant to get the numbers inflated.

Technically it was over the phone.... but yes from his mouth

[Lord McBuckethead]

CDC estimates up to 40% of actual COVID infections are asymptomatic. What do we make of this? Is this good or bad?

I believe, if contagious while asymptomatic, it would be bad news. It also would be interesting to know if these asymptomatic folks carried antibodies that kept them from getting it again. It is impossible to know because testing levels are not there.

Does anyone think it would be worth it to spend 10 billion a week on testing? If everyone in every state were tested every month, contact tracing could enter into the covid playbook. We could all go about our lives with much less restrictions. The economy, after a month or two could pretty much get back to 100%. 10 billion seems doable considering the fed has pumped 3 trillion into the economy as of last month.

[Lord McBuckethead]

And you heard this from your buddy's mouth?

I'm not doubting you or him or that this is taking place all over.

Just a question because I'm here in TN and have heard the same story from a co-worker about his friend here. Almost seems too blatant to get the numbers inflated.

Can we keep the conspriracy theories out of this discussion?

[Johnson85]

CDC estimates up to 40% of actual COVID infections are asymptomatic. What do we make of this? Is this good or bad?

The higher the percent of asymptomatic cases, the lower the infection fatality rate will turn out to be. To the extent asymptomatic people spread the disease, the harder it will be to contact trace. But we're so far away from being able to contact trace, I would say that's pretty much irrelevant for now, so it's more or less just good news. That would put the best estimate of the IFR at something like .2%, which is very manageable, it just still results in a lot of deaths when you have a population that has never been exposed.

If 50% of the population ends up getting it, and the IFR is .2%, then that would be 325k deaths in the US. If it were .1%, then that'd be 162.5k deaths. We're already at 137k deaths, so 162.5k would be pretty optimistic at this point.

[confucius say]

Can we keep the conspriracy theories out of this discussion?

Why start now

[StateDawg44]

Can we keep the conspriracy theories out of this discussion?

All I did was ask a question. Quit being so defensive.

What makes it a conspiracy theory? I heard a similar story as someone else in a totally different state and totally different situation. Same results though.

I have no agenda. Pretty strange coincidence.

[msstate7]

Why? There are some with 0% too. And everywhere in between. Should we also assume that 9% of those are actually positive and add them to the positive cases?

http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/state_reports_latest.pdf

https://i.postimg.cc/j5hHW89y/5503-B1-D7-F2-F9-4347-831-B-994-E4202-A27-E.jpg (https://postimg.cc/k6B6zy75)

https://twitter.com/fox35amy/status/1282982855430340610?s=21

[confucius say]

https://i.postimg.cc/j5hHW89y/5503-B1-D7-F2-F9-4347-831-B-994-E4202-A27-E.jpg (https://postimg.cc/k6B6zy75)

https://twitter.com/fox35amy/status/1282982855430340610?s=21

Is this for real? I mean wtf

[confucius say]

Good info on herd immunity studies. We are much closer than we think. NY seems to have reached it.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/614035/

[Liverpooldawg]

Good info on herd immunity studies. We are much closer than we think. NY seems to have reached it.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/614035/

Then there is this:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.09.20148429v1

[Dawgfan77]

Then there is this:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.09.20148429v1
Did you read the disclaimer?

[Dawgfan77]

Is this for real? I mean wtf
There is a thought out there that FL numbers are being pushed in this direction since they were doing so well early on. I'm just glad this reporter questioned the validity of the report

[Dawg2003]

It doesn't really make sense to falsify the numbers of positive test cases to make them higher because that would decrease the death rate.

[msstate7]

It doesn't really make sense to falsify the numbers of positive test cases to make them higher because that would decrease the death rate.

Shut downs and openings are based on positive % of tests.

[Johnson85]

It doesn't really make sense to falsify the numbers of positive test cases to make them higher because that would decrease the death rate.

I suspect it's more about laziness than trying to push numbers one way or the other.

Give 1,000 tests, get back 150 positive results, and just report 150 positive tests and don't take the presumably 7 seconds it would take to report the negative results. Or maybe a clinic isn't even keeping a running tally, so they go back and count the positive results but don't bother counting the tests given. Who knows.

[Gutter Cobreh]

I suspect it's more about laziness than trying to push numbers one way or the other.

Give 1,000 tests, get back 150 positive results, and just report 150 positive tests and don't take the presumably 7 seconds it would take to report the negative results. Or maybe a clinic isn't even keeping a running tally, so they go back and count the positive results but don't bother counting the tests given. Who knows.

Agreed. Case count matters, but in an ideal world - if you have a high positive case count, you want to see low hospitalization and mortality rates. Mortality is only important to track the potency of the virus, but the hospitalization number is the key. As long as hospitals can treat and release without getting overwhelmed - we're in good shape.

I said this a month or so ago, whatever numbers your reading - they're manipulated. You can find data to support whatever position you have, as the situation is too political. It's sad because there are a lot of areas and hospitals that are on diversion and the general public believes that is a hoax as well.

[confucius say]

Then there is this:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.09.20148429v1

No clear answer yet, but many believe the answer to immunity lies in T cells. Not the presence of antibodies alone.

Either way, I think if we can get to 70k documented cases in MS we will be ok. NY has 430k cases, 20 million people. Little over 2%. Using the cdc x 10 factor, between 20-25%. That's where we need to get to, 70k documented cases (700k cases using the x 10 factor). Late August.

[Turfdawg67]

New death highs in Alabama. That darn media trying to panic me again.

https://www.al.com/news/2020/07/alabama-coronavirus-deaths-reach-new-highs.html?outputType=amp&__twitter_impression=true

[msstate7]

New death highs in Alabama. That darn media trying to panic me again.

https://www.al.com/news/2020/07/alabama-coronavirus-deaths-reach-new-highs.html?outputType=amp&__twitter_impression=true

Last 3 day avg including today's 40 deaths is 16.7. Here's Alabama's 3-day avg chart...

https://i.postimg.cc/FzDXm473/5-DFC405-A-70-C1-4758-9270-46-F1371-D5868.jpg (https://postimg.cc/5QYRqD52)

So we really aren't seeing anything alarming, yet. Let's see what the next few days bring.

[Gutter Cobreh]

Last 3 day avg including today's 40 deaths is 16.7. Here's Alabama's 3-day avg chart...

So we really aren't seeing anything alarming, yet. Let's see what the next few days bring.

Why the 3 day average and not the 7 day option?

Is there something special about looking at the data in 3 day segments?

[Turfdawg67]

Why the 3 day average and not the 7 day option?

Is there something special about looking at the data in 3 day segments?

I don't see his posts, but I'm guessing because it's higher. Lolz

[Dawgfan77]

One of my best friend is an ICU nurse in Jackson hours cut back this week

[msstate7]

Why the 3 day average and not the 7 day option?

Is there something special about looking at the data in 3 day segments?

I think you should look at both. I actually like 7-day avg the best. In this case though, Alabama had 3 deaths and 7 the previous 2 days, so I think a big day was expected soon. Yesterday's 7-day was tied with March 12th for the highest at 17. Today's is 21. Something to keep an eye on for sure.

[BuckyIsAB****]

Mods don?t get mad it?s just the OG covid thread is 50 miles long

https://twitter.com/fox35amy/status/1282982855430340610?s=21

[Turfdawg67]

One of my best friend is an ICU nurse in Jackson hours cut back this week

Boy, friends getting positive test that didn't take a test, nursing friends getting hours cut. Amazing... and it fits your agenda too. That's a plus.

[Jack Lambert]

It is way too many pages. I think it is time to lock it and start a new one.

[confucius say]

I don't see his posts, but I'm guessing because it's higher. Lolz

Why would you not see his posts?

[BuckyIsAB****]

I just wanna see the excuses for this tbh

[Dawg2003]

One of my best friend is an ICU nurse in Jackson hours cut back this week

Can you ask him why? I work in Jackson, and they're begging us and offering inventive pay to work extra. I just got a text yesterday that they've raised the incentive pay because they are so desperate for nurses. We just had to open a second floor and another ICU for COVID patients.

[Gutter Cobreh]

Can you ask him why? I work in Jackson, and they're begging us and offering inventive pay to work extra. I just got a text yesterday that they've raised the incentive pay because they are so desperate for nurses. We just had to open a second floor and another ICU for COVID patients.

Unless your hospital looking to hire "imaginary" nurses, I don't think that Dawgfan77's buddy will be able to help much...

[Gutter Cobreh]

I think you should look at both. I actually like 7-day avg the best. In this case though, Alabama had 3 deaths and 7 the previous 2 days, so I think a big day was expected soon. Yesterday's 7-day was tied with March 12th for the highest at 17. Today's is 21. Something to keep an eye on for sure.

So you shortened the time frame by 4 days to ensure a spike wasn't included? Am I understanding you correctly?

If so, we know that data comes out in batches so I'm still not sure what three days are going to tell you. The window is too short in my opinion.

[Homedawg]

So you shortened the time frame by 4 days to ensure a spike wasn't included? Am I understanding you correctly?

If so, we know that data comes out in batches so I'm still not sure what three days are going to tell you. The window is too short in my opinion.

But the guy who used a ONE day death toll in AL is ok??? gotcha, ........

[msstate7]

So you shortened the time frame by 4 days to ensure a spike wasn't included? Am I understanding you correctly?

If so, we know that data comes out in batches so I'm still not sure what three days are going to tell you. The window is too short in my opinion.

The largest death total ever to Covid in Alabama is included in my window. What you talking about?

[Interpolation_Dawg_EX]

Can you ask him why? I work in Jackson, and they're begging us and offering inventive pay to work extra. I just got a text yesterday that they've raised the incentive pay because they are so desperate for nurses. We just had to open a second floor and another ICU for COVID patients.

Apparently central MS is at it's max for ICU beds and people with emergencies are being turned away to other hospitals. Good luck getting treatment if you have anything other than COVID-19.

[Dawgology]

Apparently central MS is at it's max for ICU beds and people with emergencies are being turned away to other hospitals. Good luck getting treatment if you have anything other than COVID-19.

Did you know that this happens every flu season also? Seriously...it really does. I've served on and/or with our regional MEMA unit for a while. Flu season is a whole thing. Often end up sending non-flu patients to other hospitals or out of state.

This is what doesn't make sense at all to me about pushing BACK sports. If anything we should be moving them forward. Flu season starts around the 1st of November and peaks between Dec-Feb. If we moved everything up a few weeks we could actually get football season completed before the additional surge of flu patients.

It makes no logical sense to move sports into the flu season. None whatsoever. There won't be a vaccine for Covid between now and Sept/Oct.

[Dawg2003]

Unless your hospital looking to hire "imaginary" nurses, I don't think that Dawgfan77's buddy will be able to help much...

I'm always skeptical of these stories about someone's friend that said such and such. Someone always has a "friend" that said this or that. I'm wondering if the nurse might be a PACU or OR nurse that had hours cut because we've had to pull back on elective procedures in the area. I could see that scenario. We only have 1 ICU bed in the Tier 1 and 2 hospitals today, and it's been that way for weeks. Y'all be careful and don't anything dumb like fall off a ladder or get into an ATV accident.

[Turfdawg67]

But the guy who used a ONE day death toll in AL is ok??? gotcha, ........

I simply posted that AL hit an all-time high. Will be interesting to see if that becomes a trend or hopefully, just an unfortunate day.

[HailStateSZN19]

The Moderna vaccine is showing some real promise isn't it? Saw on Twitter just a little bit ago where they gave it to 45 patients in March and they got results back today that showed that the vaccine "revved up" the patients' immune systems.

Supposed to begin the key final testing on July 27th and are giving it to 30,000 people I believe. Can anyone comment any further if you know about this and what it means?

[Dawgology]

The Moderna vaccine is showing some real promise isn't it? Saw on Twitter just a little bit ago where they gave it to 45 patients in March and they got results back today that showed that the vaccine "revved up" the patients' immune systems.

Supposed to begin the key final testing on July 27th and are giving it to 30,000 people I believe. Can anyone comment any further if you know about this and what it means?

I'm pretty sure this is how the zombie apocalypse will start.

[BrunswickDawg]

I'm pretty sure this is how the zombie apocalypse will start.

Guess that means it's time to limber up and work on our cardio

https://media2.giphy.com/media/lAJKklacgbmmI/giphy.gif

[99jc]

live from Arizona......................just one thing this is not i repeat not the damn flu. i swear!

[Dawgfan77]

Can you ask him why? I work in Jackson, and they're begging us and offering inventive pay to work extra. I just got a text yesterday that they've raised the incentive pay because they are so desperate for nurses. We just had to open a second floor and another ICU for COVID patients.
Sure. Works at Baptist. Went to 3 12 instead of 4.

[Dawgfan77]

Unless your hospital looking to hire "imaginary" nurses, I don't think that Dawgfan77's buddy will be able to help much...
Why do you continue to attack me? I said nothing wrong only what I'm told.

[Dawg2003]

Sure. Works at Baptist. Went to 3 12 instead of 4.

Yeah, there are some things I could say about what Baptist is doing right now, but I won't on a public forum.