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Thread: The Covid-19 Info thread (keep politics out please)

  1. #761
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    Quote Originally Posted by confucius say View Post
    Got ya. But that's not statistics. Your using words like "assumed." But more importantly, your formula is not accounting for the people (I'm "assuming" thousands and probably millions) who have had the virus and not sought testing.
    Naw man ... his stats are absolute. You just don't understand ****

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    Quote Originally Posted by Todd4State View Post
    That's the thing about any statistics right now is we really don't have enough data. So you can either be optimistic using the data or negative using the data depending on how you want to look at it. The truth will likely lie somewhere in the middle.
    Optimistic data would be that the US doesn't break 5% infected and .5% death rate. So let's say 2.5% infected and .5% death rate. That's 40k deaths in the US. That's worth 13 9/11s. That's the optimistic outlook.

    This is a tragedy on a scale unseen that could have been largely prevented.

    Then you add in the thought of what this has done to the economy and the average american. Sobering and sad.

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    The willfully ignorant reading comprehension and blatantly incorrect inferences made just on my posts by some of you here explains why so many thought that was a good article.

    It's like you guys can't read complete sentences. I mean damn. I'm asked to make a prediction, say it's hard to make a prediction and state where I'm using assumptions, and you're telling me that I'm using statistics wrong and can't make assumptions because we don't have the data.

    WELL NO SHIT SHERLOCK. THATS WHY ITS A PREDICTION. WE DONT HAVE THE DATA FOR THE FUTURE.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dantheman4248 View Post
    That's what I'm accounting for in the part where I'm cutting from 10% to 5%. My guestimation was that people who have had it is double what we've reported. It may be more than that but that's a hard spot to go from. Maybe it's quadruple and that would end up with 1% death rate. But that one is too hard to know and has the highest variability. That's why I said at the beginning that it's a hard thing to predict and gave it my best guess.

    You're now trying to straw man me and pigeonhole it into an argument that this is what I said will happen. I was asked my best projection and gave reasons why.

    Now if you wanna show me why I should believe the infected and recovered cases that aren't reported is 3x the amount that were, then I'm all ears.
    Ok but that's not what you said. You said you were cutting from 10% to 5% to account for people who requested testing and were turned down. I took your statement as written, and I agree with you on that.

    But your original statement and formula did not account at all for people who have, or have had, the virus and have not even sought treatment who are still alive. I agree with you that there is no way to put a number on that variable, but we do know it is a variable that exists and was not accounted for in your original formula as you stated it, and when accounted for would lower your number below 5%.

    And I'm not trying to pigeonholed you. Just pointing out an unaccounted for variable in your original formula.

  5. #765
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    Quote Originally Posted by dantheman4248 View Post
    Optimistic data would be that the US doesn't break 5% infected and .5% death rate. So let's say 2.5% infected and .5% death rate. That's 40k deaths in the US. That's worth 13 9/11s. That's the optimistic outlook.

    This is a tragedy on a scale unseen that could have been largely prevented.

    Then you add in the thought of what this has done to the economy and the average american. Sobering and sad.
    No one is saying that this isn't a bad thing or tragic or whatever word you want to use. However, there is a difference between 2% and 1% when you're talking about a sample size of 387 million which is the approximate population of the US.

    What people need to do is let this play out over another week or two before going into absolute doom and gloom freak out mode.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dantheman4248 View Post
    The willfully ignorant reading comprehension and blatantly incorrect inferences made just on my posts by some of you here explains why so many thought that was a good article.

    It's like you guys can't read complete sentences. I mean damn. I'm asked to make a prediction, say it's hard to make a prediction and state where I'm using assumptions, and you're telling me that I'm using statistics wrong and can't make assumptions because we don't have the data.

    WELL NO SHIT SHERLOCK. THATS WHY ITS A PREDICTION. WE DONT HAVE THE DATA FOR THE FUTURE.
    To the extent your insults are at me, I didn't infer anything. I read your statement as written and quoted it back to you. You said you were dropping the rate from 10% to 5% due to people who requested testing and were refused a test. I pointed out you were ignoring the variable of people who did not even seek testing, and you tried to say, oh no I accounted for that in my dropping from 10% to 5% too. Well maybe so, but that's not what you typed.

    I do agree there is insufficient data at this point, and that it is hard to predict a death rate. But you have to at least place a number on the people who have had the virus, not sought treatment, and lived.

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    Mortality rate in the US has fallen from 1.5% to 1.2% over the last two days as I assume we are ramping up testing and able to test less severe potential cases
    Far Moorhead yaw

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    Quote Originally Posted by confucius say View Post
    To the extent your insults are at me, I didn't infer anything. I read your statement as written and quoted it back to you. You said you were dropping the rate from 10% to 5% due to people who requested testing and were refused a test. I pointed out you were ignoring the variable of people who did not even seek testing, and you tried to say, oh no I accounted for that in my dropping from 10% to 5% too. Well maybe so, but that's not what you typed.

    I do agree there is insufficient data at this point, and that it is hard to predict a death rate. But you have to at least place a number on the people who have had the virus, not sought treatment, and lived.
    1. No. The insults are at a wide variety on here. Not targeted. Not if I didn't quote you. 2. and below are directly at you.

    2. That's not the statement I'm talking about. this whole side chain started with someone asking me to give my prediction when it's done.

    You then decided to tell me that assuming isn't statistics and Todd is telling me that I'm preaching doom and gloom.

    I was literally asked to make a prediction. I wasn't clear on how I was wording one sentence of my post and you've now tried to use solely that to take down every bit of a straw man argument you've created saying I'm doing. That's you. That's your argument tactic. I didn't spout this prediction off as highly sophisticated statistics. I used statistics in conjunction with intuition, assumptions and observation to create that prediction.

    If you want to argue the specific assumptions that's fine. I think it's 50% of infected people aren't confirmed. You seem to think it's 75%. Anything to sway me differently? I'm guestimating there based on A. lack of testing in the US, B. general knowledge of how the average american may not afford being sick or will power through C. knowing that a majority of the other countries have tested majorly and narrowed down actual cases (America isn't the only one in play here. I'm guessing this is something you're not accounting for.) What leads you to 75%?

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    Quote Originally Posted by confucius say View Post
    To the extent your insults are at me, I didn't infer anything. I read your statement as written and quoted it back to you. You said you were dropping the rate from 10% to 5% due to people who requested testing and were refused a test. I pointed out you were ignoring the variable of people who did not even seek testing, and you tried to say, oh no I accounted for that in my dropping from 10% to 5% too. Well maybe so, but that's not what you typed.

    I do agree there is insufficient data at this point, and that it is hard to predict a death rate. But you have to at least place a number on the people who have had the virus, not sought treatment, and lived.
    It's not that they do not seek treatment but they do not qualify to be tested and therefore counted in the numbers the press tracks. The qualification metric to be tested (in MS that is) is that you must have a fever over 101.4. How do I know, I am one of them that did not meet the temperature milestone. I was told by my PCP that I am to assume I have COVID-19 based on my symptoms and take appropriate precautions (self quarantine, hydrate, get plenty of electrolytes, rest) - Dry cough, headache, shortness of breath, fever, muscle aches (more like real pain in my shoulders and arms), one of my ribs also hurt - go figure .

    I do agree that that the death rate for all COVID-19 infections will be below 1% since the cases the CDC/gov/whoever track are only the more serious cases. The number cases reported are way below the total number of cases due to circumstances such as mine and my wife's.
    Last edited by Extendedcab; 03-21-2020 at 04:53 PM.

  10. #770
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    Quote Originally Posted by WeWonItAll(Most) View Post
    Mortality rate in the US has fallen from 1.5% to 1.2% over the last two days as I assume we are ramping up testing and able to test less severe potential cases
    Well, the test results are starting to come in which will likely show an inverse between the actual number of cases and those that are actually passing away and eventually it will settle into the true picture of what we're actually looking at. You are correct that testing has been ramped up though.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Todd4State View Post
    Well, the test results are starting to come in which will likely show an inverse between the actual number of cases and those that are actually passing away and eventually it will settle into the true picture of what we're actually looking at. You are correct that testing has been ramped up though.
    Oh I know it has ramped up, it'll continue to do so next week too as they set up more drive thru test stations.
    Far Moorhead yaw

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    Quote Originally Posted by Todd4State View Post
    Well, the test results are starting to come in which will likely show an inverse between the actual number of cases and those that are actually passing away and eventually it will settle into the true picture of what we're actually looking at. You are correct that testing has been ramped up though.
    FDA just approved a new test that gives results in 45 minutes. That's a big jump forward in helping quickly get information out to people where clusters may be popping up.

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    Bolivia cancels May elections as country enacts total quarantine.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Political Hack View Post
    FDA just approved a new test that gives results in 45 minutes. That's a big jump forward in helping quickly get information out to people where clusters may be popping up.
    How quickly can the tests be mass produced?

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    Quote Originally Posted by dantheman4248 View Post
    The willfully ignorant reading comprehension and blatantly incorrect inferences made just on my posts by some of you here explains why so many thought that was a good article.

    It's like you guys can't read complete sentences. I mean damn. I'm asked to make a prediction, say it's hard to make a prediction and state where I'm using assumptions, and you're telling me that I'm using statistics wrong and can't make assumptions because we don't have the data.

    WELL NO SHIT SHERLOCK. THATS WHY ITS A PREDICTION. WE DONT HAVE THE DATA FOR THE FUTURE.
    You seem like the tool at work who thinks he?s smarter than everyone else and berates anyone who thinks otherwise. So folks at work let you say your peace, and then make fun of you behind your back and do what everyone else wants to do anyway. They just keep you around to take the work no one else wants - knowing they just have to stroke your ego occasionally to keep you going. Bless your heart.

  16. #776
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    Quote Originally Posted by Political Hack View Post
    FDA just approved a new test that gives results in 45 minutes. That's a big jump forward in helping quickly get information out to people where clusters may be popping up.
    That would be huge. I really think we are going to get a handle on this. I know that a lot of people are working hard around the world to make it happen.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pinto View Post
    You seem like the tool at work who thinks he?s smarter than everyone else and berates anyone who thinks otherwise. So folks at work let you say your peace, and then make fun of you behind your back and do what everyone else wants to do anyway. They just keep you around to take the work no one else wants - knowing they just have to stroke your ego occasionally to keep you going. Bless your heart.
    I'd say you're projecting but it's much more likely you've found out you're not essential and are just venting anger at a person you saw got to keep a job over you. Sorry you got laid off. This world is tough and this situation sucks.

    As for me, way off base. I'm nowhere near the expert in my field. Far from it and I know it. My job is pretty pandemic proof and recession proof in general so I'm not too worried.

    Sorry your enjoyment consists of making fun of people behind their backs and falsely accusing people of doing certain things then calling them "triggered" when they make a post to prove you wrong. You're a sad little troll and I really feel sorry for you. I hope you know how to get unemployment and can afford a therapist. You would do good seeing someone and talking about why you enjoy making others mad. Would help you in the long run to figure that one out.

  18. #778
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    Quote Originally Posted by dantheman4248 View Post
    I'd say you're projecting but it's much more likely you've found out you're not essential and are just venting anger at a person you saw got to keep a job over you. Sorry you got laid off. This world is tough and this situation sucks.

    As for me, way off base. I'm nowhere near the expert in my field. Far from it and I know it. My job is pretty pandemic proof and recession proof in general so I'm not too worried.

    Sorry your enjoyment consists of making fun of people behind their backs and falsely accusing people of doing certain things then calling them "triggered" when they make a post to prove you wrong. You're a sad little troll and I really feel sorry for you. I hope you know how to get unemployment and can afford a therapist. You would do good seeing someone and talking about why you enjoy making others mad. Would help you in the long run to figure that one out.
    Nailed it!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pinto View Post
    Bless your heart.
    This isn't as powerful a statement as you think it is...

  20. #780
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pinto View Post
    Nailed it!
    Godspeed to you then. Good luck and literally bless your heart.

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