The Covid-19 Info thread (keep politics out please)

[starkvegasdawg]

So much for the safety of rural living....for ****s sake, people.

Little more info on this pic. It was a pre-scheduled auction. Since they were obvious window licking stupid and didn't shut it down themselves, the mayor of Tupelo signed an executive order banning all groups over 50 and shut it down. He then made a very good point that he's now having to act at a city level because tater tot doesn't seem interested in acting at a state level beyond schools.

[BeardoMSU]

Little more info on this pic. It was a pre-scheduled auction. Since they were obvious window licking stupid and didn't shut it down themselves, the mayor of Tupelo signed an executive order banning all groups over 50 and shut it down. He then made a very good point that he's now having to act at a city level because tater tot doesn't seem interested in acting at a state level beyond schools.

Wow. Thanks for the background, dude.

[BulldogDX55]

Just some updated corona numbers - third column is Georgia because that's where I am.

[confucius say]

Hard to make a prediction THAT far out. That's trying to project A. our ever changing response and B. multiple months down the road once we can see where the bell curve hits in a country that's not doing near what it should to cull it. Assuming that we do what America / our leadership does, I think our self quarantining will inevitably fail and people will go back to work because they need money. This will cause a bigger spread than most every other country. How that projects out is unclear. It's not unreasonable to see where by the end of the calendar year we've had 10+% of the country infected with it. From that percentage I'd also guesstimate about average death rate. (Which so far looks to be 10% of closed (recovered or dead) cases. I'd adjust that down to at most 5% due to just guestimating that half of the people who want to get tested are turned away.) In fact I think that 10% itself goes down by at least half as we make more progress. So we'll say 2% to be conservative. So taking a conservative shot of 10% infected and 2% death rate, that projects to 650k deaths in America. I'd be predicting more conservatively here, so my final guess would be about 500k deaths in America. But that's a very rough estimate.

Now I could be (and hope) wrong about our response, but we've missed our window to cull this. We've missed it badly. I don't see us going on pause for more than 2 months. It's simply not viable. Not without universal basic income which it seems we have decided to "fix" the initial idea and make it absolutely worse. So yea, another not good signal that we're gonna botch this.

It's crazy. Should have never gotten to this point. Should have shut down the borders earlier and had rigorous testing and quarantining. That can't be forgotten when this is all over. But for now we need to come together and start making smart decisions. Injecting $2k into every american home is a smart decision. Fiddling with it, lowering it, and scaling it to give poor people EVEN LESS is a totally bad idea. How this is even in discussion let alone actually going to happen is beyond comprehension.

Where are you getting a 2% death rate?

[hacker]

Let's not pretend this only affects old people. A couple younger deaths in NOLA today:

44 year old man
https://www.billboard.com/articles/n...ad-coronavirus

39 year old woman
https://www.nola.com/news/coronaviru...e94bc7f56.html

[Todd4State]

Where are you getting a 2% death rate?

Much more likely to be at 1% based on most studies.

[dantheman4248]

Where are you getting a 2% death rate?

I literally broke it down in my post...

About 10% of Closed cases have closed with death. You can't look at the death rate as dead / infected. Some of those still might die. So from that 10% I assumed that roughly 50% of people requesting testing that actually have the virus are turned down. Knocked it down to 5%. I also think that as we naturally get better at best methods to fight this disease, that percentage gets cut in half at minimum. So that's 2.5% and I took another .5% off to be more conservative. That's 2%.


Currently the world has ~95k recovered cases and ~13k deaths. That suggests 12% of closed cases end with death. Sobering statistic.

[Liverpooldawg]

Just some updated corona numbers - third column is Georgia because that's where I am.

You do know we have 5 1/2 times the population of Italy, right?

[hacker]

About 10% of Closed cases have closed with death.

It's up to 12% now according to worldometer, up from 10% the other day.

Yet the article that everyone is praising says fatality rates are declining.

[dantheman4248]

You do know we have 5 1/2 times the population of Italy, right?

Italy also has 1/30 the space of us. So even in an area that in 5 times more sparsely populated we are still accelerating at a higher rate.


Neither one of our metrics tell near enough of the story there to reasonably be relied on.

[dantheman4248]

It's up to 12% now according to worldometer, up from 10% the other day.

Yet the article that everyone is praising says fatality rates are declining.

You must have made it farther than me, I did not get that far. It felt like I was diving further into a pile of bullshit and couldn't read more. Saddened to see so many praise it as a good article.

[Liverpooldawg]

Italy also has 1/30 the space of us. So even in an area that in 5 times more sparsely populated we are still accelerating at a higher rate.


Neither one of our metrics tell near enough of the story there to reasonably be relied on.

Infections per capita is the only stat that you can really us.

[Cooterpoot]

Everyone is going to die!!! EVERYONE!!!

[dantheman4248]

Infections per capita is the only stat that you can really us.

Maybe if you use it better. Comparing the US as a whole to italy is wrong in all formats. I'd be interested to see a combined New York / California count against Italy. Total state populations there combined are roughly equal with Italy. The size is only twice as big as italy. That metric would get us a closer controlled look at how we're doing compared to italy.

[confucius say]

I literally broke it down in my post...

About 10% of Closed cases have closed with death. You can't look at the death rate as dead / infected. Some of those still might die. So from that 10% I assumed that roughly 50% of people requesting testing that actually have the virus are turned down. Knocked it down to 5%. I also think that as we naturally get better at best methods to fight this disease, that percentage gets cut in half at minimum. So that's 2.5% and I took another .5% off to be more conservative. That's 2%.


Currently the world has ~95k recovered cases and ~13k deaths. That suggests 12% of closed cases end with death. Sobering statistic.

Got ya. But that's not statistics. Your using words like "assumed." But more importantly, your formula is not accounting for the people (I'm "assuming" thousands and probably millions) who have had the virus and not sought testing.

[confucius say]

Much more likely to be at 1% based on most studies.

That's the number I keep hearing

[Todd4State]

Got ya. But that's not statistics. Your using words like "assumed." But more importantly, your formula is not accounting for the people (I'm "assuming" thousands and probably millions) who have had the virus and not sought testing.

That's the thing about any statistics right now is we really don't have enough data. So you can either be optimistic using the data or negative using the data depending on how you want to look at it. The truth will likely lie somewhere in the middle.

[BeardoMSU]

Everyone is going to die!!! EVERYONE!!!

Name a single person in this thread that has said that...

Does your brain only compute in binary code?**

[Todd4State]

That's the number I keep hearing

And it's because of the fact the test takes so damn long to come back positive or negative. For whatever reason.

The data we have right now is about like Rowdey Jordan hitting below the Mendonza Line after OOC games.

My personal opinion is over the next week or two the numbers will inevitably get worse, people will freak out and then it will plateau throughout April and early May and gradually go down. Once our bodies build some immunity to it then we will gradually be allowed to do less and less social distancing although a few cases will still pop up but at a much lower rate.

[dantheman4248]

Got ya. But that's not statistics. Your using words like "assumed." But more importantly, your formula is not accounting for the people (I'm "assuming" thousands and probably millions) who have had the virus and not sought testing.

That's what I'm accounting for in the part where I'm cutting from 10% to 5%. My guestimation was that people who have had it is double what we've reported. It may be more than that but that's a hard spot to go from. Maybe it's quadruple and that would end up with 1% death rate. But that one is too hard to know and has the highest variability. That's why I said at the beginning that it's a hard thing to predict and gave it my best guess.

You're now trying to straw man me and pigeonhole it into an argument that this is what I said will happen. I was asked my best projection and gave reasons why.

Now if you wanna show me why I should believe the infected and recovered cases that aren't reported is 3x the amount that were, then I'm all ears.