Saw a post from David Murray about Juco's...

[Really Clark?]

I think Dan was/is a good coach, but I just think he's ready to move on. Dan himself has said that 10 years is a long time to be at school and has talked about that a few times over the year. I think he said something about it regarding Miles recently. We're in year eight. I LIKE 2010 Dan. I don't like 2016 Dan. I recognize what Dan has done BUT I'm very concerned that we are about to hang on to him too long and they're we're back to a multi year rebuilding project. We've never lost to a school like South Alabama under Dan until this year. That's NOT a good sign. Our offense and defense are currently both in middle/bottom of the SEC right now.

The thing about it with finding the next coach is you have to consider their situation as well. Dan should be better than PJ Fleck. We've been better than Western Michigan for awhile now- probably even as far back as the 60's. When you look at coaches you have to ask yourself how would this guy do with our resources? For example- staying with Fleck, he is one of the best recruiters in the MAC. His record is skewed heavily by his first season there but he turned them around in year two. And no I'm not advocating for Fleck to be clear just to give you an example.

I look at us right now and I think most of us agree right now that we have three main issues that is sticking with us- recruiting, offensive line play, and defensive performance.

Can we find a coach that can recruit better than Dan? I think we can.

Can we find a coach that can put together a better offensive line? I think we can.

Can we find a coach that will not have a revolving door at DC every year? I think we can.

Can we find a coach that can keep doing the good things that Dan does do? I would say probably although I could see the QB development possibly if not probably being as good.

How much would those three things being improved alone improve us? It's OK to look at the past, but we have to also consider and look at the present and the future as well.

And I'm not saying that we can't screw up the next coaching hire. That possibility is out there. But the way I see it, odds are also good or better that we won't screw it up and even if we do, we can always fire that coach. People bring up Rick Ray- well hell, we ended up with Ben Howland after that. And I never would have ever thought we would get someone like that for basketball. And yes, I would of course like to get it right the first time but even if we screw it up we can still fix it.

I can see a lot of that and agree with some. The only part I caution is the idea that the odds are better that we wouldn't screw up the next hire. That just doesn't hold water. Studies do show that the odds are greater that you will not met the present coaches record when dealing with some one who has surpassed your norm. Especially traditionally poor or average schools. The transition just doesn't work more times than not in these cases. Even schools who lose a coach to a better job often times struggle to equal their production. Weaker schools find it even more difficult and I think it takes on average a little over two coaching cycles to match that winning. Even elite schools have struggled at times going 1-2 sometimes more cycles to get back to their average or above. I'm not saying there may not be a time we have to part ways but it is not even close to simple. The schools who have done it best are the ones who have a clear vision of their foundation and what it takes to continue building. And they still miss in a cycle.