Quote Originally Posted by MetEdDawg View Post
I think we will have to agree to disagree. I understand what the sabermetrics say and I do not disagree that he should not be our permanent lead off hitter. But for right now he needs to be. I am not a fan of sabermetrics. I think there are times when it is good to use them, but I think they very often get us away from the eye test. The eye test says BJ Upton is scoring almost a run per game during his 10 game hitting streak, and he's doing from the spot in the lineup where run scoring is probably most important. It's not a coincidence we are scoring 5 runs a game during that time either.

He has a .211 BA and during his 10 game hitting streak has around a .250 BA with an OBP around .275. He's scored 8 runs during that time, stolen 3 bases, and has actually allowed us to increase the effectiveness of his skill set and has extended the effectiveness of our lineup.

The thing I think you are overlooking is that BJ's speed provides line up protection for Simmons and Freeman, the two guys on the team you really want to see fastballs because Simmons is low strikeout and Freeman is Freeman. Put La Stella there and sure maybe he gets on base more than BJ, but his lack of overall base stealing ability does not provide lineup protection for Simmons and Freeman. If he's not a liability to run, that means Simmons and Freeman are less likely to see fastballs. BJ in lead off and on base may give Simmons and Freeman each 1-4 fastballs more per game. That's a huge number when you figure in a game where you get 4 ABs you figure to see around 16-20 pitches. That's a 5 to 20% increase in fastballs seen. With La Stella in lead off you can almost pitch normally to Simmons and Freeman because he's not a threat to steal, so there really is no reason to adjust how you attack Simmons or Freeman at the plate.
Hard to argue with this.

The thing about sabermetrics is a guy like Upton may actually be better in the lead off spot, but because he maybe hasn't been used there a lot, his numbers look bad and it makes it appear as if he shouldn't be where he actually should be in the lineup.

And even if sabermetrics is right about him, it's not like he has to stay hitting lead off the entire year. You just move him somewhere else. Not really that big of a deal.