Don't look now Braves fans

[MetEdDawg]

8 game winning streak, 2nd best record in the NL, 5th best record in baseball. Averaging 5 runs a game during the winning streak and only giving up 2.25 runs per game during that same time.

I know I know it's the regular season and during the playoffs we will shit the bed. But for right now we are 10 games over .500 and doing some pretty good stuff right now even without Gattis. I think the amazing thing is that BJ is actually producing some from the lead off spot. BA is up to .211 and he's getting on base, stealing bases, and scoring runs. I'm still not sold on him that spot long term, but right now you run with it for as long as you can.

Nice to see us doing this while the Nats are hot too.

[msstate7]

Really love what the bullpen is doing right now. Since walden came back, they've been outstanding. Shea Simmons is kimbrel 2.0

Fredi has been ripped for putting bj and Simmons 1 & 2, but they're getting it done.

Mike minor is the key. We need him to make a serious playoff run. If he regains his last year's 2nd half stature, we could be a very tough out.

[Dawg61]

Sorry to hijack your Braves thread. A's just landed Samardijza and Hammel.

[msstate7]

Sorry to hijack your Braves thread. A's just landed Samardijza and Hammel.

Yep. I like it. No NL team will get them

[War Machine Dawg]

I've been saying move Simba into the 2 hole for months. He and/or La Stella are the best two hitters we have for that spot, but I like La Stella further down in the order for RBI opportunities.

BJ has been solid in the leadoff spot. Likewise, I'm not sold on him there long term, but it's been a good move short term. Ride the hot hand.

For me, the most encouraging thing during this win streak isn't necessarily the wins themselves, even though they're obviously important. It's moreso HOW we're winning these games. We're manufacturing runs, using the running game, and not relying on the long ball to score runs. We've also seen the bullpen return to form. I just wish we coulda found a way to keep Juan Jaime up. Really like that dude, he's going to be a beast.

Any word on how Venters' rehab is progressing? We should be hearing that he's ready to start rehab games soon, assuming he's on track. If he can come back in August and have even half of what he had before, that'll be a nice boost to the pen, too.

I just wish we'd get rid of Harang while he's got some value. Maybe see if we can move him for a 4/5 type pitcher. Hell, throw Uggla into the deal if a team wants to take a chance on rehabbing him.

[War Machine Dawg]

Sorry to hijack your Braves thread. A's just landed Samardijza and Hammel.

That sucks, but the Braves apparently had no interest in Samardijza. Would've loved to find a way to land Hammel, though. He'd be a major upgrade over Harang. Looks like the Cubs got big value in return, too. Addison Reed is considered one of the top 3 prospects in all of MLB right now. They also got the A's 2013 first round pick and Dan Straily. The only questionable part is the Cubs are now log jammed at SS, unless someone moves. Castro is already there and their top prospect in the minors is also a SS. Makes you wonder if Castro's days are numbered and he's next to be dealt.

[msstate7]

I've been saying move Simba into the 2 hole for months. He and/or La Stella are the best two hitters we have for that spot, but I like La Stella further down in the order for RBI opportunities.

BJ has been solid in the leadoff spot. Likewise, I'm not sold on him there long term, but it's been a good move short term. Ride the hot hand.

For me, the most encouraging thing during this win streak isn't necessarily the wins themselves, even though they're obviously important. It's moreso HOW we're winning these games. We're manufacturing runs, using the running game, and not relying on the long ball to score runs. We've also seen the bullpen return to form. I just wish we coulda found a way to keep Juan Jaime up. Really like that dude, he's going to be a beast.

Any word on how Venters' rehab is progressing? We should be hearing that he's ready to start rehab games soon, assuming he's on track. If he can come back in August and have even half of what he had before, that'll be a nice boost to the pen, too.

I just wish we'd get rid of Harang while he's got some value. Maybe see if we can move him for a 4/5 type pitcher. Hell, throw Uggla into the deal if a team wants to take a chance on rehabbing him.

Here's last I read about jonny...

http://m.ajc.com/news/sports/basebal...oreness/ngDc8/

To tell the truth, I'll be surprised if beachy or venters ever pitch for the braves again. I hope I'm wrong...

[KB21]

I've been saying move Simba into the 2 hole for months. He and/or La Stella are the best two hitters we have for that spot, but I like La Stella further down in the order for RBI opportunities.

BJ has been solid in the leadoff spot. Likewise, I'm not sold on him there long term, but it's been a good move short term. Ride the hot hand.

For me, the most encouraging thing during this win streak isn't necessarily the wins themselves, even though they're obviously important. It's moreso HOW we're winning these games. We're manufacturing runs, using the running game, and not relying on the long ball to score runs. We've also seen the bullpen return to form. I just wish we coulda found a way to keep Juan Jaime up. Really like that dude, he's going to be a beast.

Any word on how Venters' rehab is progressing? We should be hearing that he's ready to start rehab games soon, assuming he's on track. If he can come back in August and have even half of what he had before, that'll be a nice boost to the pen, too.

I just wish we'd get rid of Harang while he's got some value. Maybe see if we can move him for a 4/5 type pitcher. Hell, throw Uggla into the deal if a team wants to take a chance on rehabbing him.

BJ has a 10 game hitting streak and is hitting .240 during that span of time, but he still has a .279 OBP during that span as well. That's not going to cut it at leadoff over the long haul. The Braves are very lucky that the few times BJ does get on, Freddie is knocking him in.

Andrelton at least has a .364 OBP in the 10 games he has hit second.

[msstate7]

BJ has a 10 game hitting streak and is hitting .240 during that span of time, but he still has a .279 OBP during that span as well. That's not going to cut it at leadoff over the long haul. The Braves are very lucky that the few times BJ does get on, Freddie is knocking him in.

Andrelton at least has a .364 OBP in the 10 games he has hit second.

I'm seeing bj's last 10 game stats as this:

.268 avg .317 obp 8 r's 1 hr 3 RBI 3 sb's

[MetEdDawg]

I'm seeing bj's last 10 game stats as this:

.268 avg .317 obp 8 r's 1 hr 3 RBI 3 sb's

That's what I've got him at too during that stretch.

Here's the best thing about this right now. With him getting on, he's finally giving guys protection behind him. It may only be once a game he's getting on, but when he gets on base, he is now a threat to steal, which means whoever bats 2nd behind him has the opportunity to see some more fastballs. So now we are getting at least one more favorable at bat in our lineup per game.

That's why it's important for lead off to get on base and why it's important we keep Upton there now. You need as many favorable at bat/scoring situations as possible during the game. Him doing what he is now in the 8 hole doesn't help us at all. Chances of him scoring from the 8 hole go down drastically because the running game pretty much goes out with the pitcher at the plate. Also much less of a chance of a base hit behind him to advance him. I'm ok with this arrangement right now of him in the lead off even though he's got a lower OBP than needed for a lead off because it makes him getting on base extremely more productive than him getting on base from the 8 hole.

If he can keep this up when Gattis gets back, our lineup will become that much stronger.

[KB21]

I'm seeing bj's last 10 game stats as this:

.268 avg .317 obp 8 r's 1 hr 3 RBI 3 sb's

Not sure what source, but that is still not lead off quality.

[KB21]

That's what I've got him at too during that stretch.

Here's the best thing about this right now. With him getting on, he's finally giving guys protection behind him. It may only be once a game he's getting on, but when he gets on base, he is now a threat to steal, which means whoever bats 2nd behind him has the opportunity to see some more fastballs. So now we are getting at least one more favorable at bat in our lineup per game.

That's why it's important for lead off to get on base and why it's important we keep Upton there now. You need as many favorable at bat/scoring situations as possible during the game. Him doing what he is now in the 8 hole doesn't help us at all. Chances of him scoring from the 8 hole go down drastically because the running game pretty much goes out with the pitcher at the plate. Also much less of a chance of a base hit behind him to advance him. I'm ok with this arrangement right now of him in the lead off even though he's got a lower OBP than needed for a lead off because it makes him getting on base extremely more productive than him getting on base from the 8 hole.

If he can keep this up when Gattis gets back, our lineup will become that much stronger.

IMO, his ideal slot in the order is 6th. You get his base stealing threat in the 6 spot with singles hitters Johnson and Simmons behind him. You got to get your best hitters at the top of the line up though. Tommy La Stella is the best "get on base guy" this team has. He should be leading off. Freddie Freeman is the best hitter, period. He should hit second with Justin Upton, Evan Gattis when healthy, and Jason Heyward behind him.

[msstate7]

Not sure what source, but that is still not lead off quality.

http://atlanta.braves.mlb.com/team/p...level='ALL'

Maybe it's not typical leadoff, but we're winning. Why change what's working?

[MetEdDawg]

IMO, his ideal slot in the order is 6th. You get his base stealing threat in the 6 spot with singles hitters Johnson and Simmons behind him. You got to get your best hitters at the top of the line up though. Tommy La Stella is the best "get on base guy" this team has. He should be leading off. Freddie Freeman is the best hitter, period. He should hit second with Justin Upton, Evan Gattis when healthy, and Jason Heyward behind him.

Normally you would be right, but BJ isn't hitting a high enough average to bat 6th. That's still a higher RBI spot in a lineup. I would much rather have a Chris Johnson hitting 6th that can go oppo with more consistency and is hitting in the .280 range to sit 6th. I would like La Stella hitting 7th or 8th for right now. He's still got some learning to do and although he can put together some quality at bats, I would only change him there if/when BJ stops hitting.

BJ is averaging scoring .8 runs a game during his 10 game hitting streak. His OBP may not be great but his run scoring efficiency relative to the number of times he gets on base per game during these 10 games is extremely high. He now has the most stolen bases on the team, so sitting him 6th or 7th again decreases his value there. Honestly there really isn't a great place for him but the main thing right now is keep him out of RBI situations. In order to do that with our lineup and most lineups you have to hit 1st or 8th. 8th limits him affecting the game with his base running, so 1st is the next logical choice.

[KB21]

Here is a good article about line up optimization.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/200...your-lineup-by

Lead-Off

The old-school book says to put a speedy guy up top. Power isn't important, and OBP is nice, but comes second to speed.

The Book says OBP is king. The lead-off hitter comes to bat only 36% of the time with a runner on base, versus 44% of the time for the next lowest spot in the lineup, so why waste homeruns? The lead-off hitter also comes to the plate the most times per game, so why give away outs? As for speed, stealing bases is most valuable in front of singles hitters, and since the top of the order is going to be full of power hitters, they're not as important. The lead-off hitter is one of the best three hitters on the team, the guy without homerun power. Speed is nice, as this batter will have plenty of chances to run the bases with good hitters behind him.

IMO, Tommy La Stella vs BJ Upton as the leadoff guy is the classic sabermetric vs traditionalist argument. The case made for keeping Upton at the lead off spot is because his speed on the base paths "protects" the hitters behind him. The case for La Stella is that he is an on base machine. He has a BB% of almost 11%, and his ISO is .067. I'm not sure why someone would want him hitting lower in the line up for RBI opportunities. His Isolated on base ability is close to .100, which is only topped by Freddie Freeman on this team. The numbers show that the Braves have an increased run expectancy with La Stella leading off.

The Two Hole

The old-school book says to put a bat-control guy here. Not a great hitter, but someone who can move the lead-off hitter over for one of the next two hitters to drive in.

The Books says the #2 hitter comes to bat in situations about as important as the #3 hitter, but more often. That means the #2 hitter should be better than the #3 guy, and one of the best three hitters overall. And since he bats with the bases empty more often than the hitters behind him, he should be a high-OBP player. Doesn't sound like someone who should be sacrificing, does it?

Simmons vs Freeman. Simmons doesn't strike out a lot, so the assumption is that he is a good bat control guy. The problem with that is, he also doesn't walk a lot, and he is prone to trying to swing for the fences. He's not a good on base guy. Freddie is the best hitter on the team though, and of the remaining good hitters that Atlanta has, he's the best on base guy. You put him in the 2 hole with the big boppers behind him.

[KB21]

Normally you would be right, but BJ isn't hitting a high enough average to bat 6th. That's still a higher RBI spot in a lineup. I would much rather have a Chris Johnson hitting 6th that can go oppo with more consistency and is hitting in the .280 range to sit 6th. I would like La Stella hitting 7th or 8th for right now. He's still got some learning to do and although he can put together some quality at bats, I would only change him there if/when BJ stops hitting.

BJ is averaging scoring .8 runs a game during his 10 game hitting streak. His OBP may not be great but his run scoring efficiency relative to the number of times he gets on base per game during these 10 games is extremely high. He now has the most stolen bases on the team, so sitting him 6th or 7th again decreases his value there. Honestly there really isn't a great place for him but the main thing right now is keep him out of RBI situations. In order to do that with our lineup and most lineups you have to hit 1st or 8th. 8th limits him affecting the game with his base running, so 1st is the next logical choice.

Spots Six Through Nine

The old-school book says the rest of the lineup should be written in based on decreasing talent. Hitting ninth is an insult.

The Book basically agrees, with a caveat. Stolen bases are most valuable ahead of high-contact singles hitters, who are more likely to hit at the bottom of the lineup. So a base-stealing threat who doesn't deserve a spot higher in the lineup is optimized in the #6 hole, followed by the singles hitters.

That's BJ Upton. He doesn't deserve a spot higher in the line up, and he's a base stealing threat. That's probably his only plus offensive tool at this point. The 6 hitter isn't going to be getting many RBI opportunities with the 3, 4, and 5 hitters ahead of them cleaning things up.

Also, hitting a guy with an OBP less than .300 in the lead off spot is simply not a smart option at all.

[KB21]

http://atlanta.braves.mlb.com/team/p...level='ALL'

Maybe it's not typical leadoff, but we're winning. Why change what's working?

Because you want to maximize your chances of winning for the entire season, and keeping BJ Upton in the leadoff spot does not maximize those chances of winning.

[FISHDAWG]

I hear ya but look who the last several series have been against .... not exactly running a gauntlet there. What is encouraging is the Braves being a second half team ... at least right up until a dozen games left in the reg season. I'm hopeful, but not sure if they are strong enough to go very deep into the playoffs. Also, I'm not sure if a wildcard will come from that division - gonna have to win it

[MetEdDawg]

I just totally disagree with the philosophy that BJ Upton should hit 6th. To me that's absolutely nuts. The problem with the old school theory is that you would expect your 6 hole hitter to have a BA higher than .211 and a much higher OBP than what BJ has. In theory it makes sense, but how much are you going to increase his run scoring productivity in the 6 hole, which right now is what we need him to do? Also, with a .211 BA, how many extra RBI chances will he get with Freeman, Justin Upton, and maybe Gattis (when he comes back) or Chris Johnson in front of him? It's pretty hard to improve upon .8 runs scored per game, which is what he's averaging over his 10 game hitting streak. Extrapolate that over a season and he scores 130 runs a season. Have to roll with that.

Do you really think putting him in front of Chris Johnson and maybe a La Stella or Laird is better? Chris Johnson has a much higher strikeout rate in the 6 or 7 hole than Simmons in the 2 hole (almost 3:1 higher K rate). That's insanity to put BJ in front of that, even though I mentioned earlier he has a higher BA and a decent propensity to go oppo. To maximize BJ's on base scoring chances, you put him in front of a low strikeout/high rate of contact guy like Simmons in the 2 hole and a high BA guy like Freeman in the 3 hole. THAT'S how you maximize potential. The book is great when everything fits perfectly into a puzzle. But if you think we will maximize BJ Upton by putting him in a higher RBI spot in front of a Chris Johnson and Laird we may just have to agree to disagree.

La Stella has 2 SBs and cannot go 1st to 3rd like BJ can. It's an against the book situation that has to be treated that way. We need BJ to produce runs scored from the lead off spot. He's doing that at the present moment. If he continues to produces anywhere close to .8 runs a game from that slot he has to stay in the lead off spot.

Again, this is an odd situation and I know what the book says. Ideally BJ would hit 6th because he would be hitting .260 with a .330-.350 OBP with 15-20 SB and 60-80 RBI. Unfortunately he's not doing that right now and all data gathered during his time with the Braves says he would not do well in that spot. He's scoring runs and stealing bases, so we have to maximize our lineup to fit that. Put him in front of Simmons and Freeman and Justin Upton and there's a good chance he's gonna score when he gets on.

[FISHDAWG]

#moneyball