Severe Weather Returns Tuesday

[starkvegasdawg]

Our Fall severe weather season gets going this Tuesday as a potent storm system moves through. Right now not sure how significant it will be, but I'm leaning towards a lower end event. Strong straight line winds, small hail, and a couple tornadoes all look possible right now. This system has some strong dynamics going for it, but the main question is now much moisture return we can get ahead of the system for storms to work with. If it's limited as it appears it may be now then a lower end event, but if the Gulf can open up and send up a plume of moisture then it could over achieve from current thinking.

[basedog]

U left off the *****

[Bodawg]

Hopefully will bring some much needed rain!

[DownwardDawg]

As you make updates to this, don't forget your favorite Tennessee Dog!!!! I always counted on these threads when I lived on hwy 84. My kids still do but I still watch from up here because I'm still in that track.

[Commercecomet24]

Bump. Any updates, SVD? Appreciate your info and love y'alls facebook page!

[starkvegasdawg]

Bump. Any updates, SVD? Appreciate your info and love y'alls facebook page!

Sorry. Son was up sick all night so I'm in nurse mode today at home.

I'm going to admit this one is going to be tricky. SPC still maintains a slight risk for almost the entire state. Main threats look to be straight line winds and a couple tornadoes. What we know for sure is wind fields will be damn near perfect for tornadoes. The forecast hodographs I've seen have a perfect shape for rotating storms. The question still remains as to how much moisture and instability there will be to work with. This is a scenario where our drought conditions may help us out in lessening the severity. There is very little ground moisture to evaporate out to help contribute to atmospheric moisture. Everything is going to have to be supplied by the gulf. Now, it's more than capable of doing so, but always nice to not have to work as hard. If I were setting out a ground zero now for the area that could see the worst of whatever happens I would want to be east and maybe central to southern part of the state. The further east you are the more opportunity for daytime heating to lead to increased destabilization and the further south the more chance of better moisture return. However, the further south you are the further you're displaced away from the best storm dynamics that will be lifting away north and east. So anywhere east of I-55 and north of a Natchez to Laurel line and maybe south of a Grenada to Oxford line would be my best best. Not to say there can't or won't be severe weather outside that as there very likely may be. I just think if there is corridor of where the storms may max out in intensity it would be in that area.

[Commercecomet24]

Sorry. Son was up sick all night so I'm in nurse mode today at home.

I'm going to admit this one is going to be tricky. SPC still maintains a slight risk for almost the entire state. Main threats look to be straight line winds and a couple tornadoes. What we know for sure is wind fields will be damn near perfect for tornadoes. The forecast hodographs I've seen have a perfect shape for rotating storms. The question still remains as to how much moisture and instability there will be to work with. This is a scenario where our drought conditions may help us out in lessening the severity. There is very little ground moisture to evaporate out to help contribute to atmospheric moisture. Everything is going to have to be supplied by the gulf. Now, it's more than capable of doing so, but always nice to not have to work as hard. If I were setting out a ground zero now for the area that could see the worst of whatever happens I would want to be east and maybe central to southern part of the state. The further east you are the more opportunity for daytime heating to lead to increased destabilization and the further south the more chance of better moisture return. However, the further south you are the further you're displaced away from the best storm dynamics that will be lifting away north and east. So anywhere east of I-55 and north of a Natchez to Laurel line and maybe south of a Grenada to Oxford line would be my best best. Not to say there can't or won't be severe weather outside that as there very likely may be. I just think if there is corridor of where the storms may max out in intensity it would be in that area.

Thanks, SVD, as alwyas your info is invaluable! Hope your son gets better soon, i know how that goes! Hate to hear you put laurel/jones county in there, lol!

[starkvegasdawg]

Thanks, SVD, as alwyas your info is invaluable! Hope your son gets better soon, i know how that goes! Hate to hear you put laurel/jones county in there, lol!

It wouldn't be a severe weather event in MS if Smith county and the surrounding area wasn't involved.

[Commercecomet24]

It wouldn't be a severe weather event in MS if Smith county and the surrounding area wasn't involved.

Truth!

[DownwardDawg]

Sorry. Son was up sick all night so I'm in nurse mode today at home.

I'm going to admit this one is going to be tricky. SPC still maintains a slight risk for almost the entire state. Main threats look to be straight line winds and a couple tornadoes. What we know for sure is wind fields will be damn near perfect for tornadoes. The forecast hodographs I've seen have a perfect shape for rotating storms. The question still remains as to how much moisture and instability there will be to work with. This is a scenario where our drought conditions may help us out in lessening the severity. There is very little ground moisture to evaporate out to help contribute to atmospheric moisture. Everything is going to have to be supplied by the gulf. Now, it's more than capable of doing so, but always nice to not have to work as hard. If I were setting out a ground zero now for the area that could see the worst of whatever happens I would want to be east and maybe central to southern part of the state. The further east you are the more opportunity for daytime heating to lead to increased destabilization and the further south the more chance of better moisture return. However, the further south you are the further you're displaced away from the best storm dynamics that will be lifting away north and east. So anywhere east of I-55 and north of a Natchez to Laurel line and maybe south of a Grenada to Oxford line would be my best best. Not to say there can't or won't be severe weather outside that as there very likely may be. I just think if there is corridor of where the storms may max out in intensity it would be in that area.

Awesome details! Thanks!
I'm flying from Nashville to NOLA tomorrow.

[starkvegasdawg]

And thanks for the positive plug about our Facebook page. We try our best to put out good info.

Shameless Plug:
And for any new to the area or my weather posts we also have a YouTube channel, a standalone website, and a Patreon page with additional benefits and members' only posts. Links below.



https://youtube.com/c/NorthMississip...ersandSpotters

https://m.facebook.com/NorthMississi...&source=result

https://nmscas.org/

https://www.patreon.com/NMSCAS

[Commercecomet24]

And thanks for the positive plug about our Facebook page. We try our best to put out good info.

Shameless Plug:
And for any new to the area or my weather posts we also have a YouTube channel, a standalone website, and a Patreon page with additional benefits and members' only posts. Links below.



https://youtube.com/c/NorthMississip...ersandSpotters

https://m.facebook.com/NorthMississi...&source=result

https://nmscas.org/

https://www.patreon.com/NMSCAS

I've signed up for all your stuff and it's where I go for my weather info. Appreciate y'all!

[starkvegasdawg]

I've signed up for all your stuff and it's where I go for my weather info. Appreciate y'all!

I and my team greatly appreciate it.

Tell 500 of your closest friends.***

[starkvegasdawg]

Tornado outlook for tomorrow per the SPC.

[Commercecomet24]

I and my team greatly appreciate it.

Tell 500 of your closest friends.***

Will do!

[viverlibre]

I need a good rain in Greenwood, please and thank you. You know, food plots....

[starkvegasdawg]

I need a good rain in Greenwood, please and thank you. You know, food plots....

Where I lived growing up. Product of Bankston Elementary and Greenwood High.

[Commercecomet24]

Where I lived growing up. Product of Bankston Elementary and Greenwood High.

I'll take the rain you can keep the wind, hail and tornadoes lol

[viverlibre]

Where I lived growing up. Product of Bankston Elementary and Greenwood High.

I'm a Carroll County boy, but my nephews went to Bankston, and my older siblings to GHS. I took a summer class there, but was too country for the big city!

[starkvegasdawg]

I'm a Carroll County boy, but my nephews went to Bankston, and my older siblings to GHS. I took a summer class there, but was too country for the big city!

I lived in town as a kid, but after college I was in Carroll county. Subdividing just past valley hill.