Severe Weather Returns Tuesday

Our Fall severe weather season gets going this Tuesday as a potent storm system moves through. Right now not sure how significant it will be, but I'm leaning towards a lower end event. Strong straight line winds, small hail, and a couple tornadoes all look possible right now. This system has some strong dynamics going for it, but the main question is now much moisture return we can get ahead of the system for storms to work with. If it's limited as it appears it may be now then a lower end event, but if the Gulf can open up and send up a plume of moisture then it could over achieve from current thinking.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FfqYtXjX...jpg&name=large

U left off the *****

Hopefully will bring some much needed rain!

As you make updates to this, don't forget your favorite Tennessee Dog!!!! I always counted on these threads when I lived on hwy 84. My kids still do but I still watch from up here because I'm still in that track.

Bump. Any updates, SVD? Appreciate your info and love y'alls facebook page!

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Originally Posted by Commercecomet24

Bump. Any updates, SVD? Appreciate your info and love y'alls facebook page!

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Sorry. Son was up sick all night so I'm in nurse mode today at home.

I'm going to admit this one is going to be tricky. SPC still maintains a slight risk for almost the entire state. Main threats look to be straight line winds and a couple tornadoes. What we know for sure is wind fields will be damn near perfect for tornadoes. The forecast hodographs I've seen have a perfect shape for rotating storms. The question still remains as to how much moisture and instability there will be to work with. This is a scenario where our drought conditions may help us out in lessening the severity. There is very little ground moisture to evaporate out to help contribute to atmospheric moisture. Everything is going to have to be supplied by the gulf. Now, it's more than capable of doing so, but always nice to not have to work as hard. If I were setting out a ground zero now for the area that could see the worst of whatever happens I would want to be east and maybe central to southern part of the state. The further east you are the more opportunity for daytime heating to lead to increased destabilization and the further south the more chance of better moisture return. However, the further south you are the further you're displaced away from the best storm dynamics that will be lifting away north and east. So anywhere east of I-55 and north of a Natchez to Laurel line and maybe south of a Grenada to Oxford line would be my best best. Not to say there can't or won't be severe weather outside that as there very likely may be. I just think if there is corridor of where the storms may max out in intensity it would be in that area.

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Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

Sorry. Son was up sick all night so I'm in nurse mode today at home.

I'm going to admit this one is going to be tricky. SPC still maintains a slight risk for almost the entire state. Main threats look to be straight line winds and a couple tornadoes. What we know for sure is wind fields will be damn near perfect for tornadoes. The forecast hodographs I've seen have a perfect shape for rotating storms. The question still remains as to how much moisture and instability there will be to work with. This is a scenario where our drought conditions may help us out in lessening the severity. There is very little ground moisture to evaporate out to help contribute to atmospheric moisture. Everything is going to have to be supplied by the gulf. Now, it's more than capable of doing so, but always nice to not have to work as hard. If I were setting out a ground zero now for the area that could see the worst of whatever happens I would want to be east and maybe central to southern part of the state. The further east you are the more opportunity for daytime heating to lead to increased destabilization and the further south the more chance of better moisture return. However, the further south you are the further you're displaced away from the best storm dynamics that will be lifting away north and east. So anywhere east of I-55 and north of a Natchez to Laurel line and maybe south of a Grenada to Oxford line would be my best best. Not to say there can't or won't be severe weather outside that as there very likely may be. I just think if there is corridor of where the storms may max out in intensity it would be in that area.

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Thanks, SVD, as alwyas your info is invaluable! Hope your son gets better soon, i know how that goes! Hate to hear you put laurel/jones county in there, lol!

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Originally Posted by Commercecomet24

Thanks, SVD, as alwyas your info is invaluable! Hope your son gets better soon, i know how that goes! Hate to hear you put laurel/jones county in there, lol!

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It wouldn't be a severe weather event in MS if Smith county and the surrounding area wasn't involved.

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Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

It wouldn't be a severe weather event in MS if Smith county and the surrounding area wasn't involved.

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Truth!

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Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

Sorry. Son was up sick all night so I'm in nurse mode today at home.

I'm going to admit this one is going to be tricky. SPC still maintains a slight risk for almost the entire state. Main threats look to be straight line winds and a couple tornadoes. What we know for sure is wind fields will be damn near perfect for tornadoes. The forecast hodographs I've seen have a perfect shape for rotating storms. The question still remains as to how much moisture and instability there will be to work with. This is a scenario where our drought conditions may help us out in lessening the severity. There is very little ground moisture to evaporate out to help contribute to atmospheric moisture. Everything is going to have to be supplied by the gulf. Now, it's more than capable of doing so, but always nice to not have to work as hard. If I were setting out a ground zero now for the area that could see the worst of whatever happens I would want to be east and maybe central to southern part of the state. The further east you are the more opportunity for daytime heating to lead to increased destabilization and the further south the more chance of better moisture return. However, the further south you are the further you're displaced away from the best storm dynamics that will be lifting away north and east. So anywhere east of I-55 and north of a Natchez to Laurel line and maybe south of a Grenada to Oxford line would be my best best. Not to say there can't or won't be severe weather outside that as there very likely may be. I just think if there is corridor of where the storms may max out in intensity it would be in that area.

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Awesome details! Thanks!
I'm flying from Nashville to NOLA tomorrow.

And thanks for the positive plug about our Facebook page. We try our best to put out good info.

Shameless Plug:
And for any new to the area or my weather posts we also have a YouTube channel, a standalone website, and a Patreon page with additional benefits and members' only posts. Links below.



https://youtube.com/c/NorthMississip...ersandSpotters

https://m.facebook.com/NorthMississi...&source=result

https://nmscas.org/

https://www.patreon.com/NMSCAS

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Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

And thanks for the positive plug about our Facebook page. We try our best to put out good info.

Shameless Plug:
And for any new to the area or my weather posts we also have a YouTube channel, a standalone website, and a Patreon page with additional benefits and members' only posts. Links below.



https://youtube.com/c/NorthMississip...ersandSpotters

https://m.facebook.com/NorthMississi...&source=result

https://nmscas.org/

https://www.patreon.com/NMSCAS

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I've signed up for all your stuff and it's where I go for my weather info. Appreciate y'all!

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Originally Posted by Commercecomet24

I've signed up for all your stuff and it's where I go for my weather info. Appreciate y'all!

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I and my team greatly appreciate it.

Tell 500 of your closest friends.***

Tornado outlook for tomorrow per the SPC.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ff3Mx9BW...g&name=900x900

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Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

I and my team greatly appreciate it.

Tell 500 of your closest friends.***

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Will do!

I need a good rain in Greenwood, please and thank you. You know, food plots....

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Originally Posted by viverlibre

I need a good rain in Greenwood, please and thank you. You know, food plots....

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Where I lived growing up. Product of Bankston Elementary and Greenwood High.

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Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

Where I lived growing up. Product of Bankston Elementary and Greenwood High.

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I'll take the rain you can keep the wind, hail and tornadoes lol

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Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

Where I lived growing up. Product of Bankston Elementary and Greenwood High.

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I'm a Carroll County boy, but my nephews went to Bankston, and my older siblings to GHS. I took a summer class there, but was too country for the big city!

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Originally Posted by viverlibre

I'm a Carroll County boy, but my nephews went to Bankston, and my older siblings to GHS. I took a summer class there, but was too country for the big city!

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I lived in town as a kid, but after college I was in Carroll county. Subdividing just past valley hill.

Not much has changed from my thinking last night. Below is the tornado threat from the latest SPC update. For MS, they've made it more along the threat area I outlined here yesterday but expanded a little more north to go up into NE MS. They also now have all of western AL.

An ongoing QLCS is pushing towards the state. This will be capable of some severe storms and maybe a brief tornado in the western part of the state this morning. However, as daytime heating increases instability this afternoon, the line is expected to intensify once it approaches the eastern part of the state. Wind profiles for this storm are very impressive with long curved hodographs. This will allow the severe storms to form and maintain rotation. What will help mitigate the tornado threat is that storm mode will be linear in nature. The areas to watch will be with any semi-discrete cells that may form ahead of the line and the northern edge of line segments within the line. Those will be the most favored areas for tornado development. That's not to say you can't get tornadoes in the middle of a line segment because you can. If your radar app only has reflectivity then look for little upward pointing hooks on the line if in the middle of the segment.

All in all this doesn't appear to be a major event, but could be widespread wind with a few isolated tornadoes just due to the amount of wind shear available. Looks to be pushing out of MS by early afternoon. If storms look to be significant as they approach eastern MS I'll be out chasing around the golden triangle area.


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ff50NTiW...jpg&name=large

Here in Madison, MS, we just had some moderate Rain and a couple of minor wind gusts (20/25mph). Thankfully it was nothing major by any estimation. :). I think the weather event is over here. Conditions should improve as the day goes along.

Now a 60% of a tornado watch being issued for extreme east MS and west AL. Looks like most of MS will escape the severe threat.

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Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

Now a 60% of a tornado watch being issued for extreme east MS and west AL. Looks like most of MS will escape the severe threat.

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Do I need to bring muh weed plants indoors?

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Originally Posted by TUSK

Do I need to bring muh weed plants indoors?

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Stay safe looks like its headed your way.

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Originally Posted by Commercecomet24

Stay safe looks like its headed your way.

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I live bout 3 miles from "tornado ally"... they cross the state line in the Hwy 82/Hwy 50 area every few years, or so...

I'm puttin' a cooler of beer and lounger out on the deck as I type...

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Originally Posted by TUSK

I live bout 3 miles from "tornado ally"... they cross the state line in the Hwy 82/Hwy 50 area every few years, or so...

I'm puttin' a cooler of beer and lounger out on the deck as I type...

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Yeah I'm in the tornado alley down here in south mississippi myself, so I know the feeling all to well. Stay safe, Buddy!.

So far the storm has been unable to get its act together. Just pushed through Starkville and will be in AL shortly. May be able to do something there as a tornado watch was just issued for west AL.

We just got a tiny bit of rain maybe a tenth of an inch and 15-20 winds and that was it, here in jones county.

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Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

So far the storm has been unable to get its act together. Just pushed through Starkville and will be in AL shortly. May be able to do something there as a tornado watch was just issued for west AL.

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It's just raining lightly here... Nothing spooky, yet.

Check your PMs...

For the record, it was an "interesting" flight from Nashville to Nola. And my family lost power in Sumner county tn as I was taking off. All good now though.

From conversations on our team chat page there were no storm or damage reports today so good news all around. It stayed with providing just a little needed rain.

We had a quarter inch of rain, and only one clap of thunder. It was pretty much a non-event. Been really windy all day though, and the temperature has dropped 10 degrees or so.

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Originally Posted by RocketDawg

We had a quarter inch of rain, and only one clap of thunder. It was pretty much a non-event. Been really windy all day though, and the temperature has dropped 10 degrees or so.

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Yeah. We're still in a burn ban here in middle Tennessee n

Looks like G'wood has a decent chance of rain for the weekend.

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Originally Posted by viverlibre

Looks like G'wood has a decent chance of rain for the weekend.

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Most of the state does. Sucks. My son is supposed to have an outside birthday party Saturday.

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Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

Most of the state does. Sucks. My son is supposed to have an outside birthday party Saturday.

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Any severe weather this weekend or just rain? Thanks!

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Originally Posted by Commercecomet24

Any severe weather this weekend or just rain? Thanks!

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Just rain in this one. Maybe keep an eye on next Friday, though. Models all over the place but some are trying to bring in a severe threat to the region. SPC mentioned it in their outlook this morning.

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Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

Just rain in this one. Maybe keep an eye on next Friday, though. Models all over the place but some are trying to bring in a severe threat to the region. SPC mentioned it in their outlook this morning.

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Appreciate it as always!

Looks like tomorow is a good bye weekend with rain expected.

How long's it been since we had a rainy home game, or a cold game? Quite some time I think.