Is anyone here still in the "OM Gonna Skate" camp?

That mindset has always perplexed me, that State fans would allow themselves to fall for Rebel spin...

EVERY single indicator since January of this year has pointed toward the Rebel Alliance, when this is all in the books, getting rode hard and put up wet.

I have no particular insight, but you don't need to be Karnac the Magnificent to see what's coming. IT's been coming for some time, and when IT does pull into the station, there will Be No Skating.


At a minimum:

Four Show Causes
Two year bowl ban
21 over three



By the time their probation is over, they'll be getting pounded on to change "Ole Miss" and "Rebels" to something innocuous, and by then they'll probably welcome the change.

I didn’t think Ole Miss would skate because from the NCAA’s point of view it wouldn’t have made any sense to let them skate while at the same time pissing off Alabama, Florida State, Georgia, Texas, etc. and everyone else that is pissed off at Ole Miss. Because if they do let Ole Miss skate, they run a MAJOR risk of members like the ones I mentioned breaking away from the NCAA.

Plus why would the NCAA want to try to manage a situation where it’s basically a major bidding war for players that they wouldn’t be able to enforce? It would just get out of control.

The NCAA gains nothing by letting Ole Miss skate.

The other scary thing for Ole Miss here is after years of Slive basically doing whatever he could to keep SEC teams off of probation like Auburn with Cam Newton I think the NCAA is looking for a SEC team to nail. Because of the size of their fanbase and the revenue that they bring to the SEC as a lower tier member- Ole Miss is an obvious target because them getting nailed isn’t going to affect SEC revenue at all and it gives the NCAA the perception that the SEC isn’t immune.

Not to mention the fact that the NCAA is looking to make up for the botched Miami case.

After Auburn/Cam, Ole Miss made a calculated gamble - they would go all in and the NCAA wouldn't touch them. It almost worked. Almost.

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Originally Posted by Bubb Rubb

After Auburn/Cam, Ole Miss made a calculated gamble - they would go all in and the NCAA wouldn't touch them. It almost worked. Almost.

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Kinda like being almost pregnant.

Ill admit that at the beginning I thought they would skate. I felt this way solely off of previous NCAA investigations namely the Miami debacle. I also didn't think they were stupid enough to have their head coach in a house with a booster. Also did not think they were stupid enough to lie to the public right in front of the NCAA and act all innocent and poor Ole miss like. I now firmly believe they are going to receive what they deserve.

I agree with 21 or so over 3 and 2 year bowl ban for the first NOI. My question is what happens for the second investigation? Will the NCAA wait and lump all the penalties together or will there be another set of penalties? Thoughts?

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Originally Posted by Todd4State

The other scary thing for Ole Miss here is after years of Slive basically doing whatever he could to keep SEC teams off of probation like Auburn with Cam Newton I think the NCAA is looking for a SEC team to nail. Because of the size of their fanbase and the revenue that they bring to the SEC as a lower tier member- Ole Miss is an obvious target because them getting nailed isn?t going to affect SEC revenue at all and it gives the NCAA the perception that the SEC isn?t immune.

Not to mention the fact that the NCAA is looking to make up for the botched Miami case.

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This is the correct reason they will get hammered. OM, contrary to what they believe, is a very small fish in a big pond.

The NCAA is gunning for Freeze. These latest interviews with former recruits is not about a $100 handshake in the Grove. They want to place Freeze in the room with recruits and boosters where serious dollar amounts were discussed or given out. I'd bet money now Freeze gets a show cause.

21 scholarships is a very low guess. They are giving immunity to players to spill the beans. They want to nail their ass. It's going to be closer to 30/35 scholarships.

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Originally Posted by BB30

Also did not think they were stupid enough to lie to the public right in front of the NCAA and act all innocent and poor Ole miss like.

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Key element right here. Had they actually exercised the "exemplary cooperation" they claimed from the beginning, they may have actually gotten off pretty light. History clearly shows that if there's one thing that the NCAA will consistently and harshly punish, it's lying to them and/or subverting their efforts. UNM put the nail in their own coffin by letting their usual arrogance and delusion lead them to believe that they could worm their way out of this by deflecting and playing the PR game. Fitting that the end of all this will most likely show they made things far, far worse for themselves.

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Originally Posted by BB30

Ill admit that at the beginning I thought they would skate.

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Well, quite a while back I thought they might just because they have done a he!! of a lot of cheating since the Billy Brewer days yet they haven't even had a hand slap since while we've been through 3 different probations I believe (2 under Jackie and the Redmond ordeal under Mullen). At this point though I will be shocked if they don't get blasted.

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Originally Posted by TrapGame

The NCAA is gunning for Freeze. These latest interviews with former recruits is not about a $100 handshake in the Grove. They want to place Freeze in the room with recruits and boosters where serious dollar amounts were discussed or given out. I'd bet money now Freeze gets a show cause.

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Steve mentioned on the Boneyard a few episodes back that people who hadn't been willing to talk had started talking. I'm wondering if Mr. FCA out of Memphis might have flipped and started talking. Think about it. Here is a real guy trying to honestly help kids (by his account), asks OM if what he is doing is OK, they tell him yes, then throw him under the bus?? I'm sure ole Danny Hugh gave him the "Lord is my Sheppard" line, or "Am I my brothers keeper" and thought all was good. Now, Mr. FCA may be in on it and just as dirty as the rest - but wouldn't the irony be delicious if he is the one Steve says decided to come clean. A Christian with a guilty conscious can be a powerful thing.

I think the only thing they might "skate" on is a Lack of Institutional Control charge.

I don't see how they would, since

A) They have multiple level 1 violations across three sports (that we are aware of)
B) They had a football player receive a free car, told him to send it back, then he got ANOTHER one and the Athletic Department never thought to follow up to make sure he was following the rules.
C) Their AD has been prominently spewing bullshit in the media for months about "exemplary cooperation" and "nothing to see here" - you know that has to chap some asses up in Indy.

I will be disappointed if they don't receive an LOIC along with the rest of their penalties, because if any case in the last 25 years has warranted one, it's this case.

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Originally Posted by TrapGame

The NCAA is gunning for Freeze. These latest interviews with former recruits is not about a $100 handshake in the Grove. They want to place Freeze in the room with recruits and boosters where serious dollar amounts were discussed or given out. I'd bet money now Freeze gets a show cause.

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Yep, I'm really believing at this point that this Fall is the Freeze Farewell Tour. The NCAA is either going to give him a show cause or make it excruciating painful for UNM to keep him.

Keep in mind the Dan Wolken tweets from yesterday where he basically said "ole miss's arrogance and defiance might play well in MS, but it's not in Indy. The NCAA is made up of people, and people don't like being lied to."

I think this is playing large right now. I agree with the rebels that think the NCAA has a hardon for them right now, and I think they 100% brought on themselves for being such arrogant, lying pricks throughout this whole process.

Minimum of 30 schollys
Freeze show cause- staff fired
Minimum 2 year Bowl Ban
Bjork fired

Those things are going to happen by next summer. Immunity is being given because they already have something on the players and want the complete truth from them. The investigators tell them that they only want to hear about their recruitment from Mississippi- no other schools.

Mississippi's delay tactics and flat out lies to media has the people in Indy ready to nail them to the wall. You can't have what Tunsil did on Draft Night go unpunished. You can't be turned in by over 25 different schools the last 3 years and expect to survive. You can't brazenly cheat while you are being investigated and expect "9 over 3". The NCAA has learned a lot from their mistakes in the Miami investigation and aren't going to let that happen again

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Originally Posted by Random Poster

Minimum of 30 schollys
Freeze show cause- staff fired
Minimum 2 year Bowl Ban
Bjork fired

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This would set them back for a decade or so.

What coach is going to take a job with 30 scholarship limitations & a two year bowl ban? Joe Kines that's who.

I've heard repeat offender

🔨 🔨 🔨

The NCAA has to make an example. Here's another reason why: if you get setback for a couple of years, than in many people's eye's it was still worth it. Sugar bowl, beating Bama a couple of times, lot's of media attention. I'm willing to wager a lot of schools are willing to accept a couple of bad years for that. Are they willing to accept a decade of futility for that? No way. It has to be severe, otherwise, everyone should go all in.

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Originally Posted by tireddawg

I've heard repeat offender

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People keep bringing this up...

How would it be repeat offender when they are not on probation as of right now or at any time during the investigation? The second letter or addendum will not be able to be able to be used as repeat offender.

Now what I think will come into play as for as when the penalties are levied...a good percentage of all this happened while being investigated.

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Originally Posted by maroonmania

Yep, I'm really believing at this point that this Fall is the Freeze Farewell Tour. The NCAA is either going to give him a show cause or make it excruciating painful for UNM to keep him.

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I was texting a buddy who works at auburn yesterday. He said one of the coaches there is good friends with Jimmy Sexton and that coach told him Sexton says he doesn't even believe Freeze will survive this. Twice.

Anything less than the entire school being completely shutdown, in my opinion in skating. So, yeah I think they skate by on this one.

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Originally Posted by StatesboroBlues

People keep bringing this up...

How would it be repeat offender when they are not on probation as of right now or at any time during the investigation? The second letter or addendum will not be able to be able to be used as repeat offender.

Now what I think will come into play as for as when the penalties are levied...a good percentage of all this happened while being investigated.

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I think the entire repeat offender or not is a technicality that won't come into play here.

Ole Miss has been under investigation since 2013 & continued to cheat while the NCAA was investigating them. Due to the investigation lasting so long, they aren't a traditional repeat offender, but I don't see that mattering when the sanctions are announced.

I think the spirit of the repeat offender clause comes more into play with situations like we had with Redmond. Redmond was an isolated incident & the NCAA levied penalties that hurt Redmond & the booster but did little to school. Now, if we had another Redmond situation come up soon, then the NCAA could levy worse penalties by saying that there is a trend of MSU violating this rule.

With Ole Miss it's different. Ole Miss isn't just a repeat offender, it's repeat, repeat, repeat, repeat, repeat, repeat offender, & the only reason they don't technically fall into the "Repeat Offender" category is because the investigation never ended.

I just don't see that being an issue in this case. I think the NCAA will do what they want & will have mountain of evidence to justify it.

To answer the original question....I never believed they were going to skate. Why? Two things stood out to me. The original, and I'm sure he's probably still on the case in some capacity, investigator for the NCAA was the compliance officer at LSU during part of the time that the allegations against OM have been outlined. You know good and well that he was hearing things that OM was doing during this time from his own coaches at LSU since they were going head to head on some recruits. He already had some pieces to the puzzle before he started looking for things. Once he found other pieces to the puzzle, he put those with what he already knew going in and validated what he knew beforehand.

Secondly, and most importantly, the entire investigated arm of the NCAA was dismantled after the Miami fiasco. The new regime knew going in the mistakes that the old regime made and the backlash they received. In no way were they going to write the same script as them. Going in, they knew that they had to get this one right. And without admitting it, and probably unconsciously to some degree, part of OM's penalty is going back to make up for the lack of, for Miami.

What I do believe is that the NCAA had no idea they would find what they have going in. If you really go back and look from the beginning, things have really unfolded perfectly for the NCAA in this case. They had the ULL case happen only to find info they could pin back on OM. Then the Tunsil confession, and now the granting of immunity for numerous players who know firsthand the playbook of the Network. Yes, I capitalized Network. It is as real as the monitor you are reading this on and far more advanced than anything you have even heard about it.

Fellow Bulldogs....I say to you, rejoice, for the times of the unrighteous evildoers are numbered.

Yeah. I believe they will essentially skate, until proven otherwise.

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Originally Posted by rem101

I was texting a buddy who works at auburn yesterday. He said one of the coaches there is good friends with Jimmy Sexton and that coach told him Sexton says he doesn't even believe Freeze will survive this. Twice.

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Post more

Entire football staff fired, including many in the athletic department. More scholarships than we could imagine giving up. More visits than you can give up and still legitimately recruit anyone worth a damn. 2+ years of bowl bans. I wouldn't be shocked if it's up to 4 years to be honest, and they won't be back in a bowl within 6-8 years likely.

The first guy to text Archie will get the job. Either that, or they'll hire a loyal alumni who has nothing better to do over the next decade.

It'll be bad enough that there will be talk of whether or not they should be allowed to stay in the SEC.

They won't get the death penalty but they probably gonna wish they didn't have a football program after the smoke clears. With the sanctions coming they're in for a decade of beatings on the field that's gonna be fun to watch. Those new metal bleachers ain't gonna be needed!

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Originally Posted by TrapGame

The NCAA is gunning for Freeze. These latest interviews with former recruits is not about a $100 handshake in the Grove. They want to place Freeze in the room with recruits and boosters where serious dollar amounts were discussed or given out. I'd bet money now Freeze gets a show cause.

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I personally witnessed a $100 handshake in the Sad Pad following a State-Ole Miss game. All the players came off the court and filed a single line that went down the row of big dog boosters who had court-side seats. I saw the bill change hands.

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Originally Posted by Random Poster

Minimum of 30 schollys
Freeze show cause- staff fired
Minimum 2 year Bowl Ban

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Is this speculation or a rumor?

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Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg

I think the entire repeat offender or not is a technicality that won't come into play here.

Ole Miss has been under investigation since 2013 & continued to cheat while the NCAA was investigating them. Due to the investigation lasting so long, they aren't a traditional repeat offender, but I don't see that mattering when the sanctions are announced.

I think the spirit of the repeat offender clause comes more into play with situations like we had with Redmond. Redmond was an isolated incident & the NCAA levied penalties that hurt Redmond & the booster but did little to school. Now, if we had another Redmond situation come up soon, then the NCAA could levy worse penalties by saying that there is a trend of MSU violating this rule.

With Ole Miss it's different. Ole Miss isn't just a repeat offender, it's repeat, repeat, repeat, repeat, repeat, repeat offender, & the only reason they don't technically fall into the "Repeat Offender" category is because the investigation never ended.

I just don't see that being an issue in this case. I think the NCAA will do what they want & will have mountain of evidence to justify it.

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New NCAA status just for OM: Never Stopped Offender

I just try not to get my hopes up with the NCAA. Only because they are so fickle and unpredictable. I know what they SHOULD get - I have low faith in the NCAA to get it right. But I admit, this week has made it difficult to keep that mindset. I am beginning to get pretty optimistic.

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Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg

I think the entire repeat offender or not is a technicality that won't come into play here.

Ole Miss has been under investigation since 2013 & continued to cheat while the NCAA was investigating them. Due to the investigation lasting so long, they aren't a traditional repeat offender, but I don't see that mattering when the sanctions are announced.

I think the spirit of the repeat offender clause comes more into play with situations like we had with Redmond. Redmond was an isolated incident & the NCAA levied penalties that hurt Redmond & the booster but did little to school. Now, if we had another Redmond situation come up soon, then the NCAA could levy worse penalties by saying that there is a trend of MSU violating this rule.

With Ole Miss it's different. Ole Miss isn't just a repeat offender, it's repeat, repeat, repeat, repeat, repeat, repeat offender, & the only reason they don't technically fall into the "Repeat Offender" category is because the investigation never ended.

I just don't see that being an issue in this case. I think the NCAA will do what they want & will have mountain of evidence to justify it.

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Not denying any of that other than I don't see "repeat offender" being mentioned officially when all said and done. Like I said in my first post...I do see the NCAA taking into account when it comes to punishment the violations that occurred while they were on campus.

Semantics really...an official "repeat offender" status would have everything on the table as for as punishment. More or less...they are going to get punished significantly.

Spiderman here in 5..4..3..2..1

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Originally Posted by StatesboroBlues

Not denying any of that other than I don't see "repeat offender" being mentioned officially when all said and done. Like I said in my first post...I do see the NCAA taking into account when it comes to punishment the violations that occurred while they were on campus.

Semantics really...an official "repeat offender" status would have everything on the table as for as punishment. More or less...they are going to get punished significantly.

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I don't think repeat offender status is as important as it once was. Prior to the revised regulations, a school had to be a repeat offender to get the death penalty. In the revision, that was taken out. I am not saying that they get the death penalty, only using that as an example that the full range of penalties is on the table.

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Originally Posted by Random Poster

Minimum of 30 schollys
Freeze show cause- staff fired
Minimum 2 year Bowl Ban
Bjork fired

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Shelton's list

Minimum of 40 schollys
Freeze show cause (8 years one year Level 1 )- all staff Show caused ( Kiffin- 6 years, Harris- 6 years, Luke - 6 years, Barney-10 years, Nix - 10 years, and the rest 4-8 years)
nutt show cause
Minimum 3 year Bowl Ban
Bjork Show cause (10 years)
Boone Show cause
Jones Show cause
vitter Show cause
Director of Compliance (and the rest of the department - all of them) Show Cause
General council show cause
5 year postseason ban and 30% scholarships lost in WBB and Track
Women's AD show cause
suspension of the Athletics foundation until proven in compliance with Regulations
Forfeit of all games played 2006 - 2016 (ACT to Tunsil)
50% reduction in visits

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Originally Posted by Commercecomet24

Kinda like being almost SMART.

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FIFY

30 over 3
2 year bowl ban
Show causes for several coaches including Freezus
Bjork relived of his duties

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Originally Posted by GreenheadDawg

Spiderman here in 5..4..3..2..1

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No, because I try not to deal in speculation, or make myself look like an idiot by saying what is gonna happen when I, nor anyone else knows what will happen for sure.