Defense yes, but not so much with the offense.Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach34
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Defense yes, but not so much with the offense.Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach34
Last year's offense- Jenkins, Calhoun in NFL. Williams will join them. Hill NFL. Williams all sec back before. Phillips and Reese also potential nfl guys. Don't remember another team w more nfl talent on offense. I know WR had some holes. I'll buy that....Quote:
Originally Posted by basedog
exactly- they try to act like the offense wasnt talented when it clearly was- it just wasnt built to be soft like our new staff wants it to be. A coach adapts to his players and amends his offense/defense to what he has. Shoop adjusted the D away from a 3-4 to a 4 man front without any problems. Moorhead adjusted the offense to his players strengths for the Auburn game last year and won a huge game. But refused to stay with it because it wasnt what he wanted to run. He wanted to run his O instead of what was best for the team. Thats the bottom line. We had plenty of talent on offense last year- we just didnt use it correctly.Quote:
Originally Posted by Homedawg
And dont give the crap about installing his O for the long term of the program. Neither QB we are playing was here last year.
You forgot to include that any coach with half a brain knew this year was gonna be a rebuilding year with younger players. Start the total install this year. Adapt the O last year as you said.Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach34
Most of that Defense had played in a 4 man front before. To act like that is and equal transition in offense is dishonest. Moorhead is a great coach who has succeeded at every level. We did not hire him to continue Mullen's offense. Our QB couldn't hit the broadside of a friggin barn, and Mullen never trained WRs worth a crap.Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach34
1- Stevens grew up in his offense
2- Shrader was 77% this weekend.
Moorhead is our coach and will be for the next 3 years minimum. He should be, and is doing a HELL of a JOB!
Moorhead has underwhelmed but is recruiting well. The jury is still out for sure Mrs Moorhead and we will see what happens.Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach007
Nah! He's a beast on hiring and on offense. When did Mullen ever recruit a kid that set a record on his first start as a true freshman? Why didn't Mullen have a RB rush for over 100 yards in the first 4 games of a season? This offense is the best offense Ms ST has ever had.Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach34
This offense? As in this season?? Clarification....Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach007
Total offense = 71stQuote:
Originally Posted by Coach007
Yds/play = 49th
Scoring offense = 60th
This offense is historic!
To act like we will never have the talent we had last year is the other extreme to 007 thinking we could win 11 this year. We probably have as much talent on the Oline now especially with the freshmen. Gay and Dantzler are both early draft guys even if Errol isn't. Cole has looked good in spurts but this is his first year actually playing from Juco. Abram was a lot better his second year. Rivers has been disappointing but still solid. Autry will probably get drafted unless the suspension hurts him.
If Stevens stays healthy then he could be a mid round draft pick along with Kylin being an early pick. There is talent behind all these guys so the woe is me attitude is just acting like little bitches. Who knows if Moorhead is the right guy but he is a hell of a lot better than several other coaches in the SEC.
A) because Mullen usually started the season playing LSU and Auburn in the 1st games of the season.Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach007
B) Because Mullen had his QB get as many carries as his TB
C) JRob had 100-plus in games 2-5 in 2014. Dak or JRob had 100-plus in 6 straight games that year. JoMo having a weak schedule to start the season doesnt make for a great offense. We played a soft early schedule yet are 60th in scoring currently and 71st in Total O. Mullen finished 16th in the country in 2014 in scoring O. JoMo wont touch that
We'll see at end of year and at draft. I haven't said we couldn't do it again but it is and will be infrequent.
99%, 99%, 90%, 80%, 45%, 95%, 35%, 35%, 99%, 15%, 99%, 95%.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgday166
Gave 1.36% for 6 wins or lower; 6.25% for 11 wins or higher.
ETA: Yes I was a bit of a homer on them. Oh well. It was preseason and I bought the hype. Don’t argue with me on what they are now because believe they are different now. Tell me Shrader is starting UK and Tommy has a bum arm for half of KSU, Shrader plays the other half and my percentages go way down for us.
So we've already lost a game you gave us a 90% chance of winning. 45% this week is quite generousQuote:
Originally Posted by dantheman4248
Read the edit.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
And yes these are probably diff values from when we had our discussion. I fiddled with them then left it alone once the season started.
And if Auburn loses their starting QB along with their best defensive players then you would think that would change the percentages also. Let's not act like the outlook for the season didn't change by losing Stevens and several of our best defensive players. Gay and Autry make our defense a hell of a lot better. I would say having both and a healthy Stevens would have changed the outcome of the KSU game.Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
You know ... when your modeling something most of the time there is a lot of uncertainty. That's why you have to use your brain. As I said earlier you may understand probability and statistics, but it's obvious you don't understand football.Quote:
Originally Posted by dantheman4248
ETA: just getting those results should have caused you to question your GRAs and ICs.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach34
Why are you making excuses? Why are we moving to 2014? Mullen was hired in 2009 and had major talent on that team and in year 1 SUCKED. Why could he not adapt? He finished once above the ranking of 4th in the SECW...6 of the years at 5th. He finished ranked 2 times. Mullen won 14 games in 2 years. In his first year, he did not beat a top 20 team.
Moorhead is already in a high level. His first season ended rank and you yourself stated he is recruiting well. Moorhead is at 11 wins in his second year. And he has beaten top 20 teams... In fact a top 10 team.
The fact is that his system is a more open one. It's a better offense.
Hell, I question 15% against Bama more than anything else in his probabilities. I would put it at 1% unless their entire team gets the screaming dookies.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgday166
What was it last year when they were a top 10 team?Quote:
Originally Posted by msstate7
I didn’t question it because I came into this year with the belief that second in the west was wide open. Any of the 4 of us, aTm, auburn, or LSU could grab (some with a higher chance than others, but still). Add to that my thought seeing 6 gimmes... yea my data made sense to me.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgday166
To put it another way, even if we went 11-1 with a loss to Bama I don’t think it would have been right to call us a top 10 team. I feel the West isn’t that good. Another factor is that once you cross the -500 threshold in gambling on CFB, the favorite wins an obscenely higher amount. So while you may disagree with my values at 99% for certain games, I felt they were reasonable.
Lol ... Yea the inputs do seem somewhat weighted towards a desired outcome.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tbonewannabe
I was swayed by computer models. They gave us even more of a chance than I did preseason. 7 and I both discussed that being weird.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgday166
What I have concluded is most doing the models like Moorhead. FPI loves him.Quote:
Originally Posted by dantheman4248
Moorhead inherited a much better program than Mullen- that?s not even questionableQuote:
Originally Posted by Coach007
2014 was brought up because you said this offense was the best in school history when it?s nowhere close
You are straight trolling now. Well done
I question it. There was a ton of talent on that team. A LOT of NFL players.Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach34
I said the Offense, as in system. It's the last sentence.
This offense, as in system, is light years ahead of Mullen's- And within a year Moorhead was able to get 2 QBs in that can complete passes. That's one more than the former guy. At that rate we will have 18 in the same amount of years. IT will attract more WRs that can catch too. And all of it makes for a better run game. It's a deeper dimension than anything the former HC dreamed of.
Light years?? I would question that somewhat cause Mullen's type of offense has won 3 Natty's.Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach007
In final analysis tho football still comes back to blocking and tackling ... and running and catching. It doesn't matter what kind of offense you run if you don't block. Last year ... we didn't block or catch. That's on the O and Joe. We'll see how this year turns out cause we haven't played anyone real good yet.
My bigger concern with joe is not x and o, but running a program both on and off the field. I think he will get there though.
Sec West is brutal, hopefully Joe can balance this roster and we can get some team speed. Losing your QB has hurt this team's production some on offense. Yes Shrader will get better such as last week performance shows, but this offense is better than last years except for some many injuries this year in OL, even Hill got banged up, plus his back up running backs.
Neither was last year's offense.Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach34
Yeah 007 is looking on the bright side. I don't know if he is going so far that way because you have several people saying Joe is Croom level bad. The truth is, the verdict is still out. We don't truly know what we have in Joe yet. We know he can beat the shit out of bad teams and he is recruiting well. We know he has the ability to outcoach some guys (AU and A&M) but also look like a deer in the headlights (UK, UF, and LSU). We saw both of those with Mullen so I am not ready to just throw Joe to the wayside yet because we are just as likely to get a Morris or Pruitt as we are a Dabo Swinney.Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgday166
We know that Joe was kind of stuck with Fitz as the starter but Fitz had an uphill battle being out until August. Fitz looked a lot better the back half of the season when he had been in the offense for a while. This year it is a little hard to judge the team because of the injury to Stevens causing a freshman to start (never a good thing in the SEC) along with all of the suspensions and along with all of the freshmen at DT. This is a line of scrimmage league and having that many freshmen on the Dline is a HUGE disadvantage. We had Chris Jones and Jeffrey Simmons who didn't start as freshmen and none of the guys out there now are that level.
We just need to get to a bowl game this year and continue to recruit. If nothing else, the cupboard will not be bare of talent. We should see what kind of team Joe really will put on the field next year unless we self impose the damn Death Penalty for someone getting a free pair of shoes.
10 future NFL players contributed on Defense in '09 and 4 on offense - including our all-time leading rusher. But, we had a QB who regressed under a new system and wasn't a fit for what the coach wanted to do on offense and that cost us a couple of games that were winnable (LSU, Houston). That offense was also sloppy and were #11 in the SEC in fumbles and INTs, and sputtered at times in games you thought we should have blown people out (MTSU, Vandy). Then, in 2010, we have a lot of those guys back, got a QB who fit the system, and after a slow start (1-2) rattled off a pretty good season.Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach007
A couple of points I'm trying to make - there are many similarities between the Croom/Mullen transition and the Mullen/Moorhead transition then I think many people should look at. A lot of that involves learning your team and talents, figuring out the league, and understanding your own strengths and weaknesses as a coach and staff. It can cost teams winnable games as they work their way thru it. Also - as time moves on we tend to remember a lot more of the "good" then the "bad" - and some of that comes out when people talk about '09. People remember us "competing" in games that we hadn't before, but forget other things. A case in point is Tyson Lee. While Lee was by no means an SEC QB - he was a 1st team JUCO All-American QB, who had been a relatively effective game manager in '08. In fact he had arguably been the most productive QB in the Croom Error (I know that doesn't say much), throwing for the most yards in a single season, had the second most TD passes, and the highest QB rating. Most people viewed him as one of the few bright spots of '08, a team leader, and someone who should adjust to the new offense. He then went from 7 TD/5 INT in '08 to 4 TD/14INT in '09. His yards and comp% were about the same, but obviously he was out of his element on offense and he suffered in making the throws needed. Not to mention the beating he took at 5'9" trying to run read-option plays and make the correct read and pitches.
I'm not saying that Dan inherited a better situation, or a better team or talent, just that transitions take time and aren't as cut and dry as people want to believe sometimes. People aren't certain Joe will work out, but at the same point in 2010 when we were 1-2 people weren't sure Dan was going to make it either.
Don't start bringing facts into this. Don't you know Dan took over a team of 5 foot 110 lb white boys and turned them into a team competing with Bama. Joe took over the 1984 Chicago Bears and barely got to the Outback Bowl.Quote:
Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg
Joe's own words, "we want to elevate the program from good to great".... I didn't say it he did...........I'm giving him a chance to prove it, but I have my doubts after 17 games. Would love for him to prove me wrong.
If Joe hadn't ran his mouth as much as he did when he got here, people would probably give him more slack. I think he either believed in the fact he could get Fitz to 60-65% passing or that Fitz was better than he was. Both of those assumptions were wrong whether it was a coaching issue, QB + WR issue, or some of both.Quote:
Originally Posted by Homedawg
I will say with Tommy at QB, the offense looked a lot more consistent than it did last year. Shrader looked better against UK than he did against KSU. It could be just knowing he was the starter or just got some of the jitters out against KSU.
I needed a good laugh!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach007
Yikes, lol.Quote:
Originally Posted by Homedawg
His anthology of posts are going age like a box of fine wine...