Here is why you play everybody vs Auburn and LSU

[Coach34]

apparently they werent "gimmes"

[Homedawg]

Or maybe you don?t understand probability? Sucks we live in the timeline where Tommy is hurt.



Only 6 gimmes. We lost one of the should wins and won the other. Gotta lose a gimme and every should lose for the 6 win now.

Which is a HeLL of a lot more likely than winning the other 4. Or winning 3 of the other four. Or winning ... nevermind .... Just smdh.
ETA. So you had KSU at home as a should, so ut ark and ole miss as gimmes? Wow. Before tee season huh.

[Tbonewannabe]

We've had so many 11 win seasons I can see why you said that. How long you been a State fan?

So I guess you aren't mad that Joe didn't win 10-11 games last year.

[Tbonewannabe]

apparently they werent "gimmes"

I would say without injuries and suspensions that we win those 6 "gimmes".

[dawgday166]

Which is a HeLL of a lot more likely than winning the other 4. Or winning 3 of the other four. Or winning ... nevermind .... Just smdh.
ETA. So you had KSU at home as a should, so ut ark and ole miss as gimmes? Wow. Before tee season huh.

He understands probability and I'm sure the probability of us winning 11 was high ****

What he doesn't understand is football.

[dawgday166]

So I guess you aren't mad that Joe didn't win 10-11 games last year.

That's why I am mad about that. Last year was one of our extremely infrequent chances to do that IMO.

[Coach34]

I would say without injuries and suspensions that we win those 6 "gimmes".

But we knew coming in to the season we had suspensions and injuries happen. So no- they werent. I and others said for months we had suspensions coming

[Coach34]

That's why I am mad about that. Last year was one of our extremely infrequent chances to do that IMO.

We wont have another team as talented as last season for quite awhile.

[dantheman4248]

But we knew coming in to the season we had suspensions and injuries happen. So no- they werent. I and others said for months we had suspensions coming

I take message board talk with a grain of salt from the majority of y’all. Sources are wrong sometimes. Hell no one could confirm Autry was one until the KSU game. The odds we had that many different starters out in our first P5 game of the season was low and the probability reflected that.

116... idk what to tell you man. You claim you understand stats but then shit all over me taking a flyer on what I had at 5%. Versus about 50-100 predictions I went with the selection that gave me +EV. If I went with strictly picking who I had as favorites I’d have been another person picking 8-4 with losses to LSU, A&M, Auburn, and Bama. Then it would have been literal price is right with Tommy’s yards. And if I get on game out of 12 wrong then I lose.

As a gambler which option are you taking?

[Homedawg]

I take message board talk with a grain of salt from the majority of y’all. Sources are wrong sometimes. Hell no one could confirm Autry was one until the KSU game. The odds we had that many different starters out in our first P5 game of the season was low and the probability reflected that.

116... idk what to tell you man. You claim you understand stats but then shit all over me taking a flyer on what I had at 5%. Versus about 50-100 predictions I went with the selection that gave me +EV. If I went with strictly picking who I had as favorites I’d have been another person picking 8-4 with losses to LSU, A&M, Auburn, and Bama. Then it would have been literal price is right with Tommy’s yards. And if I get on game out of 12 wrong then I lose.

As a gambler which option are you taking?

No one could confirm Autry was one until KSU?? Um no. You might not have believed it, but it was told. I can assure you it was told.

ETA as far as the "contest" it was a pick em. You don't get a thousand dollars for winning. Just say you look stupid for picking us to win games. You probability is off and you sound more absurd now than before.

[dawgday166]

We wont have another team as talented as last season for quite awhile.

That's my thought too and .. that sucks.

[Commercecomet24]

No one could confirm Autry was one until KSU?? Um no. You might not have believed it, but it was told. I can assure you it was told.

Yes Homedawg and others were dead on right about autry. I was one of the ones that was wrong. Homedawgs one of the most dependable info guys on this board

[Coach34]

I take message board talk with a grain of salt from the majority of y’all. Sources are wrong sometimes. Hell no one could confirm Autry was one until the KSU game. The odds we had that many different starters out in our first P5 game of the season was low and the probability reflected that.

Yeah well the info from Elitedawgs has been better than any other State site since it started 6 years ago. Hell, Rosebowl wouldnt even acknowledge the suspensions until August. News of Mullen leaving was broken before the Egg Bowl here. This is where you come to get the correct info.

[Coach007]

But we knew coming in to the season we had suspensions and injuries happen. So no- they werent. I and others said for months we had suspensions coming

Was there a public list of how many and who?

Is there ALWAYS this many injuries?

The answer to both =s NO

[dawgday166]

Was there a public list of how many and who?

Is there ALWAYS this many injuries?

The answer to both =s NO

Probably not but without looking it up I can guarantee you this. The probability of us winning 11 games going into last season was MUCH higher than going into this season. I didn't have to do any math to know that either.

[Homedawg]

Was there a public list of how many and who?

Is there ALWAYS this many injuries?

The answer to both =s NO

As for the public list, well one was given here. Again you chose not to believe multiple people. Injuries... we've had a few Parker for 2 games. Stevens for one. Backup center for one and Williams has been hobbled but hasn't missed a game. Gibson for 2. Guidry for one. While those are unfortunate, we were deep at OL, and none are out for the year and part of it. It happens. Not sure what you are looking for.

[dantheman4248]

Probably not but without looking it up I can guarantee you this. The probability of us winning 11 games going into last season was MUCH higher than going into this season. I didn't have to do any math to know that either.

I agree with this and am not arguing. I had my list to find my best bets for win totals on the year for everyone. 11 this year was more likely than 6 at that time. As for the information about suspensions and ED being the place for MSU news, I don’t disagree with that; however, it’s hard to sift through conflicting posters that seem legit and discern what’s the truth. Especially when Autry played in the USM game. It’s hard to believe our coach used him on that game but here we are. Whether you think we needed him or not that game, the decision to use him and it be one of his four does make you feel sad for the season.

[Coach34]

Was there a public list of how many and who?

We pretty much kept telling you who it was and that our DL problems were going to be hard to deal with. It's not our fault you dont listen.

Injuries happen- part of the game and you have to adjust. I lost my 2nd best OL guy for the year on the 2nd play of the season to the turf monster. It causes problems but you have to overcome them. You have no choice.

[dawgday166]

I agree with this and am not arguing. I had my list to find my best bets for win totals on the year for everyone. 11 this year was more likely than 6 at that time. As for the information about suspensions and ED being the place for MSU news, I don’t disagree with that; however, it’s hard to sift through conflicting posters that seem legit and discern what’s the truth. Especially when Autry played in the USM game. It’s hard to believe our coach used him on that game but here we are. Whether you think we needed him or not that game, the decision to use him and it be one of his four does make you feel sad for the season.

What kinda ground rules, assumptions, and initial values were you using. Those would have a lot to do with your results. I don't believe there is any authentic way the probability for 11 wins was greater than only 6 wins.

[Homedawg]

11 was NEVER more likely than 6, injuries and suspensions be damned. Never!!