Guess the debate is settled on him. Will be even further come tourney time. A true bulldog
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Guess the debate is settled on him. Will be even further come tourney time. A true bulldog
Yep, nothing like having a lucky pitcher on your staff.
He was even lucky enough to get us out of the 5th inning, when he came in with 2 men on base and only 1 out. Lucky indeed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by maroonmania
Please remain ignorant on what my point is. I woulda put him in to start the 6th. He got out of the 5th, great, he's not the best at that though. No slight against him but K's are statistically better in that spot. He is our best at long relief. But if trying to score a message board point on me makes you feel good....
Hahahahahahaha...This post literally made me laugh out loud. YOU should never have anything to say about someone else trying to score message board points. Message board points ( and I guess twitter points) are what you live for. Please...
And yes, if this is scoring message board points on you, I ****ing love it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Will James
How good could Ross Mitchell be if he didn't suck so bad?
6 for 13 in shutting down innings.
What do you mean by this? Please explain.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Will James
And.....we're off.....Quote:
Originally Posted by Will James
What Ive been saying the whole time. He needs to start the long relief innings but let someone that can K people come in for the starter when he is struggling. Ross has come into SEC games 13 times with runners on base and has allowed runs to score 7 of those times. That's not a good percentage. When he starts innings he's good because allowing balls in play doesn't hurt that much with nobody on but the majority of times we bring him in when the inning needs shutting down and 7 of 13 times he hasn't. Because when balls get put in play runners can advance unlike when batters are struck out. 13 runs have crossed the plate in SEC play alone that have been credited against another pitcher's ERA.Quote:
Originally Posted by swdawg
I actually agree with Will somewhat on this. What he's saying (in a strange way of saying it), is that Ross is a contact pitcher. You don't typically bring in a contact pitcher with RISP and less than 2 outs......you typically bring in a strike out guy to get you out of the inning, and THEN bring in a guy like Ross that gets tons of contact outs and eats innings.
I would have brought in Girodo or Bracewell to get out of the inning, and then Brought in Ross to START the next inning...but it worked out.
Everyone that is trying to make it out like Will is saying "Ross sucks", are doing it on purpose bc you know that's not what he's saying.
But whatever...I'm just trying to clear up what he's saying. Carry on.
Yes. I thought we left the unthinking at 6P.Quote:
Originally Posted by CadaverDawg
Jesus...I didn't think you'd actually do it. But, there it is...aGAIN.
Everyone understands that Will...EVERYONE. If you would just post THAT on Elitedawgs for discussion, no one would have a problem with it. Maybe one or two, but I doubt it. But that is not the way you framed your argument...you adapted it to that after people started to attack YOU about it.
It's the fact that you have to go and proclaim on twitter that Ross has been lucky more than he's been good - on TWITTER - for God's sake. And then have a long argument about it. It's as if you have to prove yourself to be smarter and savvier than even our Coaches...and it doesn't even occur to you that it might be a problem and be taken as an attack on a guy who has been a really good, steady performer this year. Never mind that Ross might see the tweet.
Try some self awareness.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Will James
Posts like this one are the reason everyone wants to slam you at every opportunity, Will. Self awareness.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Will James
This. You have come up with this conclusion after everyone has run you down at every turn. Yet this weekend, against the best college baseball program in America, Ross pitches in all 3 games and does perfectly. He comes in twice with runners on and got us out of it without any runs scored.Quote:
Originally Posted by swdawg
The icing on top of the cake that is you being wrong, is that Ross Mitchell, the man you say isn't very capable of getting us out of jams, got us out of a 2 men on 1 out jam in the 5th inning - one he got your boy, Jacob Lindgren out of, which by the way you said he would go at least 5 innings but he couldn't do that yet again.
You've turned to every direction you can and virtually everyone has called you out on it. You picked a hell of a weekend to go nuts about this argument as Ross shat on your face. But of course you'll never admit to being wrong, just continue to parade BS stats and claim you're right. If you had stuck to one stance the entire time it might be admirable, but since you keep shifting it's really just pathetic.
I don't judge single occurrences based on the result Diary. "Ooooooooh look see he got out of it, golly Will you were wrong." I look at the year as a whole to judge who should do what, not after one series. Nobody except Cadaver has said anything about 6 for 13.
K guys give up hits and walks, too... usually much harder hit balls than what Ross gives up... and you haven't mentioned that. What happens when you bring one of those guys in and they don't perform like your numbers say they are supposed to?Quote:
Originally Posted by Will James
aGAIN, you keep dancing around the fact that Ross has consistently been good... just find some stat to keep claiming you are right. Ross got out of 2 key jams this weekend against one of the best hitting teams we have faced this year and you still have given zero credit to Ross at all for doing a good job and pitching 5.1 innings today while giving up one run, instead, you keep talking about "single" (actually twice this weekend) occurances... and this is why people don't give you or your opinion any credit or validity.
Keep tooting your own horn, though... maybe someone will care... I much imagine Butch, Cohen, or Ross don't.
Quote:
Originally Posted by FFF
Uh I believe I've said he's our best long relief guy numerous times. "What happens when one of those K guys doesn't get it done" well going strictly on odds is what will get you the best results over an entire season. That's hat percentages are. Sometimes Holder will give up the run, sometimes Ross will get out of it. Going with the odds over a season will give you the best results. Just think of it like a casino. You COULD hit on 18 but most of the time you will be unsuccessful. Same concept.
Will points out the 6-13 because he has determined behind his keyboard it's the only valid stat. Era? Worthless. Etc, etc. Babip Another key one the rest are worthless. Or so he says. I might be exaggerating some, ...........but not much.Quote:
Originally Posted by Will James
Cadaver is agreeing the your argument as it currently sits. Everyone is so fed up with you because this has been your argument, in chronological order:Quote:
Originally Posted by Will James
1. Ross Mitchell is lucky because his BABIP is the highest among our best pitchers
2. Ross will soon begin to fail because the law of averages of BABIP and SIERA say so.
3. Mitchell is overrated because people put an emphasis on stats that don't matter: Wins and ERA.
4. People are afraid to criticize baseball players unlike football and basketball players
5. Ross is good, he just shouldn't be brought in with runners on base.
I may have missed a sequence or two in there, y'all will have to let me know.
Since the basis of your argument is now 6 for 13 (which I think is actually 7 for 14 now) then why don't you break down all the relief pitchers so we can see who is the best in those situations and where Ross ranks among them?
What everyone except you sees is that Ross has done A TON to help this baseball team win games. Even if he gives up a run or two with the men he inherits, he generally goes on to pitch 1-6 innings of shutout baseball afterwards (which goes back to your original argument that he has been lucky yet he keeps putting up zeros). He is far more valuable than Girodo or Bradford on the mound - guys you've said you'd rather have in there.
I'm curious to see if you'll provide a breakdown of inherited runners scored among the entire bullpen to prove your current position. Although I'm sure if you're proven wrong there as well you'll shift to a new corner of this argument that seems to span space and time.
Good lord people. We just won our 40th game and Ross is a great pitcher. If you don't understand that I cannot help you.
Guy I put a lot of stats out there. It's not all part of some grand argument. They mean different things. A few weeks ago he had a low BABIP when I brought that up.
A different point is the one about wins and ERA. That goes for all pitchers.
A different stat is SIERA. That looks at just pitcher vs batter results. Not dependent on who is on base, fielders, etc.
I understand that. It's just that every time I get on a message board folks are wanting to argue over who's the most knowledgable. We just won our 40th game and should host a regional. It's time for some folks to be positive.
who said Ross Mitchell sux? Will James didnt....Quote:
Originally Posted by Requiem For A Dawg
Well, he actually has a very valid point there. More than 50% of the time- Mitchell allowed inherited runners to score. For a reliever, that's not good. It doesnt make a mother-**** what his ERA is. You bring relievers in to shut the door- not just give up inherited runs.Quote:
Originally Posted by Homedawg
Holder's run in Game 2 didnt hurt his ERA either- but it was a very damn important inherited runner we needed to keep from scoring. That could have been a season changing run had we lost today also
These numbers are just for innings where they have entered, not innings they have started.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Croom Diaries
Ross. 14 appearances. Average # of outs when entering: 0.93. Inherited runners: 29. Inherited runners scored:13. Inherited % score. 45%
Girodo. 12 appearances. Average # of outs when entering: 0.75. Inherited runners: 17. Inherited runners scored: 5. Inherited % score: 29%
Holder. 11 appearances. Average # of outs when entering: 0.55. Inherited runners: 16. Inherited runners scored: 2. Inherited % score: 13%.
Like Coach says, it doesn't make a mother **** what any relief pitcher's ERA is. That's not their job.
ETA: In these situations Ross records an out in 74% of plate appearances. Girodo only 61%. But a lot more of Girodo's are K's which limits his runners from advancing/scoring.
Wow. Impressed with those stats. That is some interesting data, and makes me feel even better about wondering why we went with Ross with RISP instead of Girodo. Interesting. And good proof of your argument.
Me thinks if you would learn to present your data in a more humble and more easily understood way....you would be a great poster in their eyes.
I have learned to sift through the arrogance and self righteousness and see the points you are attempting to make....so I think you bring up great points and good info, and I actually agree with you on a majority of what you post. If everyone else would just quit worrying about the "look at me" parts of your posts, and focus on the facts, they would enjoy having you around.
One thing's for sure, Will wants MSU success as much or more than anyone else on this board. I can appreciate that.
It's important to pick the right stat too. If your point is that a pitcher allows a lot of inherited runners to score, it's a lot better and more relevant to use inherited runners and a stat called holds which is a cousin of saves rather than BABIP and SIERA.Quote:
Originally Posted by CadaverDawg
Very true. Sometimes a mere explanation can be more effective than a bunch of stats anyway. At least at first. And then if others want to argue it, THEN pull out your stats. But again, make sure they are the right stats.Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
BABIP and SIERA were different posts than this one. They weren't related points.Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd4State
I'm trying to help you out here.Quote:
Originally Posted by Will James
There you go. You were correct that Ross Mitchell is not the best option out of the pen with runners on base.Quote:
Originally Posted by Will James
You and Coach are wrong about a reliever's ERA not meaning anything, though. Mitchell's absolutely does because he is a long reliever who goes 3-6 innings all the time. Saying the amount of runs he gives up doesn't matter is stupid. I'm sure if you took only the innings he started himself his ERA would go from about 1.2 to 1.4. I know you don't believe in ERA, but that's beside the point. A guy like Mitchell's ERA does matter - it shows his value a lot more than a guy like Girodo who comes in for a couple of outs....if you want to dismiss his ERA that is fine.
P.S. Everyone knows this entire Ross Mitchell debate was interconnected. You changed your stance to derive at a point that would be accepted. You won't admit that since you won't admit to being wrong, but everyone knows it true - if I'm wrong someone call me out.
Conclusion: Ross Mitchell is an excellent (not lucky) pitcher who should only be brought in to start innings because he allows too many inherited runners to score.
There is a reason the 3 highest ERA's of qualified pitchers in SEC play are the starters.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Croom Diaries
There is a reason that the 6 relief pitchers with the most appearances during the season all have lower ERA's than our starters.
That's not the only reason I dismiss ERA though.
Let me say it this way so we can all agree- ERA can be extremely misleading and never tells the entire story....example?Quote:
Originally Posted by The Croom Diaries
Holder ERA was over 3.00 earlier this year because of one bad outing in long relief that caused it to take a big climb. His ERA at that time was in no way indicative of the truly special closer he is.
I think you guys now see Will's point better, and that he is indeed correct- and he understands he can come off looking like a dick
These numbers for Ross, Chad, Holder, and BB are coming soonQuote:
Originally Posted by The Croom Diaries
I wholeheartedly agree with that statement with regards to relief pitchers, however not all relief pitchers are the same. Ross is basically in a category by himself on this team and that's the % of his innings logged where he has started and completed them. Hell, he has more innings than everyone on the team except for Graveman and Pollorena. He's pitched 15 more innings than Lindgren. If he was entering with 2 outs in the 7th and leaving with 1 out in the 8th it would be a lot different, but most of the time he's coming in during the 3rd or 4th and staying until the 7th or 8th, or even finishing the game.Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach34
It's fun getting y'all all worked up.
SEC Only Numbers. These are just the innings started by each pitcher.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Croom Diaries
Mitchell, R... 25.1 IP.. 7 ER.. 2.51 ERA.
Bracewell... 15.2 IP... 2 ER... 1.18 ERA.
Holder....... 10 IP... 1 ER...... 0.90 ERA.
Girodo....... 9.1 IP... 2 ER..... 1.98 ERA.
This is another meme. In his 15 SEC appearances he's only gone more than 3 innings 3 times.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Croom Diaries
This is why you have to look at the stats, everyone remembers the few times he's finished out long relief performances and that skews the overall body of work. This happens in all areas of sports. Like the Renfroe thing earlier in the year about RISP. At the point it was brought up the meme was that he hadnt been very good when in reality he was hitting .500 and had an OBP over .700. Now granted he's fallen off of that lately but at the time it was a meme based on feeling not on fact.
Here are the numbers when these 4 start AND finish an inning (because as you say the reliever coming in behind him should be able to shut the door) in SEC play-Quote:
Originally Posted by Will James
Mitchell.....24 IP....4 ER.....1.50 ERA
Bracewell....14 IP....0 ER.....0.00 ERA
Girodo.....7 IP.....0 ER.....0.00 ERA
Holder.....18 IP....1 ER....0.50 ERA
So, all of these pitchers are very good when starting and finishing their own innings. And If you take out that 3-run homer Mitchell gave up vs. Alabama his ERA is 0.39 (I say that because one bad inning is inflating it to a massive 1.50).