Quote Originally Posted by SmokeyDawg View Post
I would imagine he actually does pretty well on the larger scale. I don't think his formula works all that well for State as a contender right now, but his formula basically boils down to the blue bloods and that's an easy bet. Recruiting average, coordinator grades, home field advantage... hard lean towards those programs. I agree with shotgun; if he re-evaluated the upper classmen on teams he would probably find the best dark horses for the playoffs. When you rate guys like Sweat, Fitz, Hoyett, Jenkins, etc as they were when signed, your formula is pretty flawed. Probably a lot less work though.
You nailed it.

His formula does work on the whole allows him to make bets between teams like Colorado State and Wyoming.

But, yes, teams like MSU are punished in for a number of reasons: unnderrated in state players, quality QB development, and maybe most of the fact that JUCO players are objectively ranked lower, due to their potential of only giving 2 years of production. So guys like Sweat, Guidry, Abram, Cole, Rivers, etc had their recruiting ranking artificially lowered out of JUCO not because of their talent but because they were JUCO.

Your right though, doing it right would require a lot more work.