Quote Originally Posted by smootness View Post
I'm a little confused. Are you arguing that we have a better chance of getting the guys with MLB futures, who were highly thought of coming out of HS, to stay for their senior years? I would argue that is incredibly unlikely.

Guys not drafted in the top 10-12 rounds, especially out of college, have a very low chance of making the majors, so they are pretty much always right to take the money if they get an offer close to what Kruger got last year. Once you drop into the $100,000 or less range, you start to have a tougher decision.
Seriously?

I'm saying that a guy like Rooker is smart to stay last year, bc he clearly had MLB potential and tools...so he had a higher likelihood of increasing draft status and therefore either increasing signing bonus, or fast tracking to the league where contracts are huge. Meanwhile, a guy like Vance Tatum better get every bit of signing bonus as he can, bc he knows unless something changes in a major way, he ain't going to be on a MLB roster probably ever, so don't leave money on the table.

Cannizaro will get us less projects, and more sure fire future MLB guys. Therefore, you end up with guys that know they'll be in the show, so improving draft stock and fast tracking their route to the MLB by being a top round pick, means more than a few hundred thousand, bc they have aspirations and a likelihood of making millions soon.

Gridley is a great example. If I'm AC, I tell him you should seriously consider going if you want to maximize your bonus and if you do indeed get offered a good bonus, bc millions are not in his future playing baseball. Whereas, I would tell Mangum that unless someone goes crazy and offers him millions in a bonus, he should stay put bc I think you could potentially make millions in the big leagues one day. If you come back and get stronger, and improve to where you aren't as raw, and increase your draft spot to top few rounds, youll get a bigger bonus next year AND you'll be on more of a fast track to the league where your bonus won't matter much anyway.

It's not that difficult imo. Guys that are longshots to be MLB players should take their biggest bonus chance as Juniors. Guys with real MLB potential should stay as long as it takes to get drafted highest. Bc you're going to get to the big show quicker as a higher draft pick, and bonus means less if you're closer to a MLB contract by increasing draft stock.