Weather geeks, talk to me

[TheRef]

Okay. So looking at the models, it seems that the ECMWF has a pretty substantial system moving in with the front around Tuesday of next week. With that in mind, it'll be interesting to see how the other models handle this. The GFS, as Vegas said, is having this front be drier aloft than the ECMWF is suggesting. I would really like to see how the NAM initializes with this storm starting around Friday or so. I'll keep an eye on it throughout the week, but IF there was a good chance of rain, it'll be early next week.

ETA: Just looked at the GEM (Canadian) and it also shows a pretty heavy precip event next week, but a day or two after the ECMWF. Bringing better confidence to thoughts of at least some rain to cool us down a bit with this front. Take it for what it's worth.

[Dolphus Raymond]

Fingers crossed. Damn, meteorology is fascinating, and I don't give a damn if it is a true "hard" science or not. �� Thanks so much for the input, guys.

[TheRef]

Fingers crossed. Damn, meteorology is fascinating, and I don't give a damn if it is a true "hard" science or not. �� Thanks so much for the input, guys.

Very small things have very large impacts in the field of Meteorology. We will never learn everything concerning the atmosphere, but year after year we get better at our forecasts.

[Commercecomet24]

Ref I appreciate yours and Vegas weather info. I find the weather fascinating and my youngest daughter is extremely into it. Appreciate y'all and keep bringing it!

[Dolphus Raymond]

If you weather prognosticators think I'm bugging y'all now, wait until late December when I'm yearning for an arctic front to push some fresh ducks down. (Yes, a committed Leftist that owns many guns and hunts. What is the world coming to?)

[TheRef]

If you weather prognosticators think I'm bugging y'all now, wait until late December when I'm yearning for an arctic front to push some fresh ducks down. (Yes, a committed Leftist that owns many guns and hunts. What is the world coming too?)

Haha. If that's the case, then you might as well just get a "POLAR VORTEX WATCH" thread going. I'm kidding. I AM COMPLETELY KIDDING. Do not do that. But we are definitely wanting to have this cool down sooner rather than later. You're about to have some very pissed off hunters soon.

[DownwardDawg]

If you weather prognosticators think I'm bugging y'all now, wait until late December when I'm yearning for an arctic front to push some fresh ducks down. (Yes, a committed Leftist that owns many guns and hunts. What is the world coming to?)

Well well well, there is hope that we can get along after all!!!

[TheRef]

Well well well, there is hope that we can get along after all!!!

I'm a nice guy, truthfully. Just don't question my profession's status.

[EngDawg]

I'm a nice guy, truthfully. Just don't question my profession's status.

No problem with meteorologists from me. Now lawyers on the other hand...

[iPat09]

No problem with meteorolists here either. If anything, it's the opposite. Having been involved in ballooning all my life and now training to become a balloon pilot, I rely on you guys more than the average person. Thanks for what you guys do!

[starkvegasdawg]

GFS is still trying show little to no rain now. Really hoping it is wrong. What it is still showing is cooler weather coming in so that will be my focus this post. Here are the forecast temps for various times starting this weekend and into next week per the GFS.

1:00PM Friday


1:00PM Saturday (I have a hard time thinking it will be this cool, personally)



Thursday November 10 1:00PM (Here is the possible big cooldown)


Friday November 11 1:00PM

[BeardoMSU]

I was wondering why a thread on the weather had over 3000 hits...I quickly saw why. Geez...Was short pants given a timeout to go sit in the corner?

Thanks for all the info Ref and SVD.

[TheRef]

I was wondering why a thread on the weather had over 3000 hits...I quickly saw why. Geez...Was short pants given a timeout to go sit in the corner?

Thanks for all the info Ref and SVD.

Yeah he is out of reach until December.

But I really do appreciate the kind words from y'all

[starkvegasdawg]

But I really do appreciate the kind words from y'all

As do I and I'm not even a meteorologist. Didn't even stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night. Had someone see my storm chasing decals on my truck the other day and made a comment about how boring things had to be for me now. Just had to shake my head and agree. Barely even any clouds to look at the past couple months.

[Bodawg]

Weather is one of the most talked about events we as humans indulge in. Our lives are generally dictated as to what the weather does each day.

[starkvegasdawg]

Just did some quick research. Numbers are unofficial but are going to be pretty stinking close. if not dead on.

The last 75 days Starkville has only had 0.9" of rain. However, only 0.03" of that has fallen since 9/22...a span of 42 days and counting. That 0.03" came on 10/20. Areas to the east and west of Starkville saw some decent rains as a line moved through. It fell apart just west of Starkville and reformed around the Lowndes county line so your house may have seen more rain. If so, consider yourself fortunate. I had a cricket try to chirp last night on my patio but things are so dry the friction caused himself to spontaneously combust.

Heed all burn bans. A man in Montgomery county (Winona) died this past weekend because he ignored the burn ban and tried to burn off his field and then got caught up in the fire when it got out of control.

[starkvegasdawg]

If you want a model to hang on to for hope next weekend, I give you the GGEM:

[DownwardDawg]

Just did some quick research. Numbers are unofficial but are going to be pretty stinking close. if not dead on.

The last 75 days Starkville has only had 0.9" of rain. However, only 0.03" of that has fallen since 9/22...a span of 42 days and counting. That 0.03" came on 10/20. Areas to the east and west of Starkville saw some decent rains as a line moved through. It fell apart just west of Starkville and reformed around the Lowndes county line so your house may have seen more rain. If so, consider yourself fortunate. I had a cricket try to chirp last night on my patio but things are so dry the friction caused himself to spontaneously combust.

Heed all burn bans. A man in Montgomery county (Winona) died this past weekend because he ignored the burn ban and tried to burn off his field and then got caught up in the fire when it got out of control.

How in the world would anyone think they could burn a field right now??? Sorry, but that was natural selection.

When this front comes through, will we get into a more normal pattern? I'm still thinking about planting early next week.

[starkvegasdawg]

How in the world would anyone think they could burn a field right now??? Sorry, but that was natural selection.

When this front comes through, will we get into a more normal pattern? I'm still thinking about planting early next week.

Yeah, hard to feel sorry for the guy, but I do his family.

We may be getting into a more normal pattern temp wise, but rain wise I am still skeptical.

The following is me just surmising here and based on not much, but we are in a drought pattern which is in a feedback loop causing more drought conditions. IF we can ever get some rain and some soil moisture that might create a feedback pattern making rain more likely when the systems come through. If we can get one or two systems to actually produce some rain then that might be enough to break the drought pattern. But as of right now, the powers that be are thinking that drought conditions could easily persist through November.

[defiantdog]

The big question is..... how will the weather be November 14 when I'm camping out at the ABC store to get my bottle of Pappy? I get there at 5am..... I gotta know which carhartt to wear.