Looks like the talking points have changed...again

[Schultzy]

What they think the MSU mafia is like:



What it's really like:

Actually it's what 13 sec schools are like + 2 acc schools and some big 10's. They're screwed.

[DancingRabbit]

Actually it's what 13 sec schools are like + 2 acc schools and some big 10's. They're screwed.

Maybe a more appropriate analogy

[sandwolf]

As much as I would love to believe this, I don't think anybody yet knows. Only the NCAA can make that call, and they have to complete their process before they can determine the punishment.

Any talk of sanctions at this stage is purely speculation, and speculating what the NCAA is going to do is iffy at best, given how inconsistent they have been lately.

Agreed. I can buy someone having a source with legitimate information on the investigation (who is being interviewed, what has found, etc.), but anyone claiming to know anything about the sanctions that the Committee on Infractions is going to hand out is just talking out of their ass.

[Perpetual Underachiever]

As much as I would love to believe this, I don't think anybody yet knows. Only the NCAA can make that call, and they have to complete their process before they can determine the punishment.

Any talk of sanctions at this stage is purely speculation, and speculating what the NCAA is going to do is iffy at best, given how inconsistent they have been lately.

I mostly agree with you and others when it comes to debating what sanctions will be handed down... but I do think it's possible that some of the most likely, and desired sanctions by the NCAA, could and have been leaked. I never said this was set in stone, but I've got my money on 2yr bowl and 30 over 3...as the major sanctions.

[MaroonDawg25]

-- 30 scholarships over 3 years

Ok I don't quite get this. Does this mean that they will lose 10 per year for 3 years or that they will lose 30 per year for three years. I would assume the first because of "over" but I was never real sure. Also if that is the case will losing 10 scholarships be a devastating blow? Or just a nuance. Taking the total scholarship number from 85 to 75 just seems like they'll have less depth but still be able to field all the starz they have. Which is basically what they've only been working with for the past 3 years, hoping the 6 to 10 amazing/great players can make up for the other okayish ones they have.

[ShotgunDawg]

I mostly agree with you and others when it comes to debating what sanctions will be handed down... but I do think it's possible that some of the most likely, and desired sanctions by the NCAA, could and have been leaked. I never said this was set in stone, but I've got my money on 2yr bowl and 30 over 3...as the major sanctions.

Does this include a "show cause" for Freeze?

[Statefan]

Ok I don't quite get this. Does this mean that they will lose 10 per year for 3 years or that they will lose 30 per year for three years. I would assume the first because of "over" but I was never real sure. Also if that is the case will losing 10 scholarships be a devastating blow? Or just a nuance. Taking the total scholarship number from 85 to 75 just seems like they'll have less depth but still be able to field all the starz they have. Which is basically what they've only been working with for the past 3 years, hoping the 6 to 10 amazing/great players can make up for the other okayish ones they have.

I think it's 10 every year.... so they go from 85 to 75 to 65 to 55 by the end of 3 years.... I could be wrong though

[spbdawg]

#

[MaroonDawg25]

I think it's 10 every year.... so they go from 85 to 75 to 65 to 55 by the end of 3 years.... I could be wrong though

As I understand it and under this scenario, they would only be able to sign 15 new players per year for three years. So in Year One they max out at 75 scholly player and in Year Three they max out at 55 scholly players.

Any natural roster attrition would further cut into the 55 max scholly roster.

It would take two to three years after the scholly sanctions ended before they could get back to 85 scholly roster. So it's really a five or six year penalty against the 85.

Ok so it is an even 10 every year but because of losing players every year to seniors/draft it becomes exponential in the loss. Then you add on to the fact that they'll be desperate trying to find players that will want to come to the program after the hammer drops and then after the sanctions are done it will take awhile to get back up to a normal roster. That is a pretty devastating blow.

[Perpetual Underachiever]

You forget just how delusional those folks are. They want so badly to believe, they can convince themselves of just about anything, despite what their own eyes or ears tell them. More than any fanbase in existence, they can block out reality and continue to live in a fantasy world, where things that are inconvenient truths are simply pushed right out of their minds.

Well said. The majority is in 100% denial. They truly think that their "self-proclaimed" elite attorneys, WWE champion AD, the 13th discipline Freezus, and obviously their beautiful campus will get them out of this.

Agreed. I can buy someone having a source with legitimate information on the investigation (who is being interviewed, what has found, etc.), but anyone claiming to know anything about the sanctions that the Committee on Infractions is going to hand out is just talking out of their ass.

Sand, let me elaborate on, and clarify my initial post. First, if you look through my thousands* of post I have never posted any supposed inside info, rumors, etc. I completely agree that nothing is guaranteed, or a done deal, when it comes to what sanctions will be levied. My woolliness after hearing this info possibly affected my rational thinking, and typing. With that said, my source has been spot on throughout the entire investigation and I will stand by the "Prediction" of a 2yr bowl ban and 30 sch. over 3.

Does this include a "show cause" for Freeze?

No mention of any "show cause", but I pray to that sweet 8lb 6oz baby Jesus every day that there is multiple "show cause"

[Dawgowar]

Ok so it is an even 10 every year but because of losing players every year to seniors/draft it becomes exponential in the loss. Then you add on to the fact that they'll be desperate trying to find players that will want to come to the program after the hammer drops and then after the sanctions are done it will take awhile to get back up to a normal roster. That is a pretty devastating blow.

The NCAA can make it a yearly deficit of 10 less scholarships than normal or they can allow the school to split the losses as they see fit over 3 years. Regardless, the second and third order effects are what devastates your roster. Essentially you loose one if not two Senior classes in terms of them having depth AND talent AND leadership. You come off probation and your talent level is decimated and your player leadership is weak. Toss in that fan base and it will get ugly fast in Northern Mississippi.

I'll still believe that many scholarships when I see it. 20 would essentially cost them a class.

Do not forget the other reduction - if the sanctions are bad enough players are allowed to transfer without waiting a year. We all know the big boys will rush in to offer the poor victimized Bear players a new home. One more way to pick the body of the TSUN football program to the bone. They will lose their staff for the most part, their ability to recruit as they have, their best players would flee, and I doubt the NCAA will have the courtesy to give them a good reach around.

All that will be left of the Bjork-Freeze Adventure will be a persistent burning sensation when a group of coed hostesses piss. All that for a returned Sugar Bowl trophy and pointless Peach Bowl participation ring.

[sandwolf]

Ok I don't quite get this. Does this mean that they will lose 10 per year for 3 years or that they will lose 30 per year for three years. I would assume the first because of "over" but I was never real sure. Also if that is the case will losing 10 scholarships be a devastating blow? Or just a nuance. Taking the total scholarship number from 85 to 75 just seems like they'll have less depth but still be able to field all the starz they have. Which is basically what they've only been working with for the past 3 years, hoping the 6 to 10 amazing/great players can make up for the other okayish ones they have.

I think it just depends on how the NCAA structures it......USC lost 30 scholarships over 3 years (10/year) and they were also limited to no more than 75 total scholarship players. So if they only had 15 scholarships open up in that first year, that would have taken them to 70 total and they only would be able to sign 5 new guys before they hit their new cap of 75...then if they had 25 scholarships open up in the second year (taking them to 50 total), they would only be able to sign 15 due to the 10 scholly/year sanction, bringing them to 65 total scholarship players. I believe I read somewhere that USC only had like 50-something scholarship players during the last season of their sanctions. So needless to say, sanctions like that can be detrimental to a program.

[Political Hack]

As much as I would love to believe this, I don't think anybody yet knows. Only the NCAA can make that call, and they have to complete their process before they can determine the punishment.

Any talk of sanctions at this stage is purely speculation, and speculating what the NCAA is going to do is iffy at best, given how inconsistent they have been lately.

Sanctions are being negotiated now. It's very possible for this leak from OM's Ath Dept. They or the law firm their using is having a very difficult time keeping things from leaking, which would suggest there are multiple leaks close to the situation. The back and forth between what the school will accept and what the NCAA will impose has begun though. That's all a part of the response to the NOA. The beauty of this is that it could be only the 1st set of allegations though. They could (I repeat could because I have no idea if they've coupled them together at this point) be responding to the 2nd waive as well at the same time.

[Political Hack]

Having to eliminate 10 scholarships your first year is the killer. It destroys a class. Instead of 35 they have to sign 15. Or cut people, which is exactly what the good Christian will do so he can sign more starz. However, it creates a big imbalance because you can't afford to miss on kids anymore. There's zero room for busts. Also, it's harder to get top flight players when there's no room for their brothers or best friends and you're having to explain probation and a post season ban.

[Reason2succeed]

I want them to have to acknowledge that they were cheating their arses off and stop. Let's be clear without all of their shenanigans they will be hurting. When you add in the effects of the punishment then you have a decimated program looking up at Vandy.

[Ralph]

I'd be happy with 30/3. That would kill their program for a good while. But I'll be most satisfied if freeze gets exposed with a show cause. Self righteous bitch.

[basedog]

OM doesn't want all this to be public- so they use their propaganda machine to delay as much as possible. They aren't sure how much they can hide- so they deny everything to control the message.

I have people in high high places that send me stuff to get it out there

Hattiesburg Mafia?

[BossDawg]

Sanctions are being negotiated now. It's very possible for this leak from OM's Ath Dept. They or the law firm their using is having a very difficult time keeping things from leaking, which would suggest there are multiple leaks close to the situation. The back and forth between what the school will accept and what the NCAA will impose has begun though. That's all a part of the response to the NOA. The beauty of this is that it could be only the 1st set of allegations though. They could (I repeat could because I have no idea if they've coupled them together at this point) be responding to the 2nd waive as well at the same time.

That's what I was wondering: why are they even concerned with sanctions now while the investigation is still ongoing? I've heard the NCAA was still interviewing as of last week. I guess though like you said this could be concerning the first NOA and that further accusations are still being drafted.

[Coach34]

Sanctions are being negotiated now. It's very possible for this leak from OM's Ath Dept. They or the law firm their using is having a very difficult time keeping things from leaking, which would suggest there are multiple leaks close to the situation. The back and forth between what the school will accept and what the NCAA will impose has begun though. That's all a part of the response to the NOA. The beauty of this is that it could be only the 1st set of allegations though. They could (I repeat could because I have no idea if they've coupled them together at this point) be responding to the 2nd waive as well at the same time.

with investigations still taking place- I'm really wondering how all this is being handled from the NCAA's side?

Do they plan to go ahead and set penalties- then come down with the 2nd penalties later on?
Do they postpone penalties and try to wrap this other stuff up in the next few months- and include everything at once?

It's the 2nd group of allegations thats going to sink them.

[Dawgowar]

with investigations still taking place- I'm really wondering how all this is being handled from the NCAA's side?

Do they plan to go ahead and set penalties- then come down with the 2nd penalties later on?
Do they postpone penalties and try to wrap this other stuff up in the next few months- and include everything at once?

It's the 2nd group of allegations thats going to sink them.

Yesterdays ten year show cause cleared some of this up coach.

1. The NCAA did not 'get' Butch Davis at UNC, he was pushed out.

2. Tressel was given a show cause but he resigned.

3. Everyone is looking at the NCAA and their conclusion of the UNC case and their handling an SEC School

4. They just hit a coach who is out of coaching with 10 years, multiple assistants with lengthy show causes - USM, ULL, the Texas DB coach for an investigation that is ongoing (acknowledging UT fired the DB coach but it was based on what the NCAA provided)

5. Freeze and his staff are now ground zero - coaching-wise the biggest potential culprits at UNC have been fired. Even some professors are gone. The NCAA needs a trophy badly. They are going to act on every coach related to round one of the charges with a heavy hand. Then, if needed, they will add more sanctions later. The UNC case taught them (along with the Miami case fiasco) to not wait. They will wrap up round one and continue to march into round two. If Freeze is implicated/proven guilty in the past actions he is going to pay the same price as Saunders and company. Round one has been going on for three years. They are not going to wait.

6. The lengthy show cause penalties are a masterstroke. No coach is going to sanction rule breaking if he knows he will lose his livelihood for 5-10 years.

Ground zero is in Oxford. Enjoy the show.