Quote Originally Posted by Really Clark? View Post
Superhero I understand where you are coming from and you have some good questions but we didn't lead the league in sac bunts and don't think we ever have under Cohen. We have been close, too close probably but we didn't lead the league. And look while I am not as big of a proponent of bunting I do see several 1 seeds that lead the nation in sacrifice bunts UCLA, Oklahoma State, Missouri State, Miami, Houston, and Cal St Fullerton. 37.5% of the 1 seeds all were Top 50 in sacrifice bunts and had more than we did. Now the when to bunt and several of those instances, I see where you are coming from. But let's be fair about how much we really bunted.
Sacrifice bunting is a part of the game. I don't like doing it when you have a runner at 1st with no one out, because you do not increase your chances of scoring with a runner on 2nd with 1 out. The run expectancy of a runner on first with no one out is 0.86 runs per inning. The run expectancy of a runner on second with one out is 0.68. So, you actually decrease your run expectancy by bunting a runner over from first to second and giving up that out.

Here's the rub. There is a reason bunt heavy teams are called "small ball" teams, and their goal is to manufacture runs. While bunting a man over from first to second when no one is out, giving up that out in the process, decreases your run expectancy, it does improve your chances of scoring exactly one run by 5.69%. This is from 2013 data on bunting.

The numbers don't describe the situations though, so you have to evaluate bunting based on the situation and the structure of the line up. The fact of the matter is, MSU did not have very many sluggers in the line up. The guy with the best SLG% on the team was also the guy with the best OBP% on the team.