Braves

[smootness]

No, no, no. In no way do you trade Albies this year. He has in no way reached his peak value as a prospect. That would be an all-time dumb move.

And he is not being compared to Andruw by pretty much anybody. Andruw Jones was a once-in-10-years kind of prospect. Albies, right now, is just a really intriguing, talented guy who hasn't really proven anything.

There's a chance he could be ready in a couple years, but that's not overly likely, and even then, you have some time to figure things out.

But no, you absolutely do not trade Albies this year, especially not before you know what Peraza is.

[Really Clark?]

of course there's some room for improvement, we've already covered that he has to improve against lefties. but most prospects don't know how to pitch yet. hell it takes until the 3rd or 4th year in the bigs for most pitchers to figure that out. and Wisler is mostly there already. there's no room for him to grow stronger, and very little for mental growth don't find a prospect with less room for projection than that.

Yeah I don't think you really mean that. Mental growth can happen at any age with a player. Change of approach makes a pitcher more effective. Adding a pitch, etc. all of those can be done after he reaches the big league level.

Eta. I don't think he will increase velocity much if any but at 22 the possibility is probably greater than you are making it out to be. I assume you mean velocity when you say stronger. Because he could get a lot stronger in the sense he retains his stuff deeper into games and sometimes that is what is the difference between a #5 pitcher and a #2. That is something that could happen.

[smootness]

As for Wisler, I was talking about the way places like Fangraphs evaluate prospects, not Bleacher Report.

He's 6'3" 175, he can absolutely get physically stronger.

You have no idea whether or not he can get to a sub-3 ERA level in the majors.

[BoomBoom]

No, no, no. In no way do you trade Albies this year. He has in no way reached his peak value as a prospect. That would be an all-time dumb move.

And he is not being compared to Andruw by pretty much anybody. Andruw Jones was a once-in-10-years kind of prospect. Albies, right now, is just a really intriguing, talented guy who hasn't really proven anything.

There's a chance he could be ready in a couple years, but that's not overly likely, and even then, you have some time to figure things out.

But no, you absolutely do not trade Albies this year, especially not before you know what Peraza is.

? he was being compared to Andruw in that article.

if he's currently seen as a B or B- prospect, then sure. but if someone is offering more for a blocked player at that level, you take it. a AA or AAA guy can at least fill in in the case of injury.

but i think we agree it's unlikely someone will offer that, outside of a package deal. if you wait for every propect to their "peak level" before you trade them, then you'll wind up with very little in return, as most prospects flame out rather than reach "peak value". you maximize your return by trading earlier.

[BoomBoom]

Yeah I don't think you really mean that. Mental growth can happen at any age with a player. Change of approach makes a pitcher more effective. Adding a pitch, etc. all of those can be done after he reaches the big league level.

Eta. I don't think he will increase velocity much if any but at 22 the possibility is probably greater than you are making it out to be. I assume you mean velocity when you say stronger. Because he could get a lot stronger in the sense he retains his stuff deeper into games and sometimes that is what is the difference between a #5 pitcher and a #2. That is something that could happen.

but there's very little room for such growth with Wisler, that's the point. he already pitches like a pro. there's some room, sure, but moreso than any other prospect, what you see is what you get. he's high floor low ceiling. why the hell is that controversial?

[BoomBoom]

As for Wisler, I was talking about the way places like Fangraphs evaluate prospects, not Bleacher Report.

He's 6'3" 175, he can absolutely get physically stronger.

You have no idea whether or not he can get to a sub-3 ERA level in the majors.

if you've got a good link for Fangraphs ceilings of players, please share.

his MiLB page says he's 195lbs.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2014-top-100-prospects/

Pitchers

Archie Bradley, Diamondbacks
Taijuan Walker, Mariners
Robert Stephenson, Reds
Lucas Giolito, Nationals
Eddie Butler, Rockies
Jonathan Gray, Rockies
Noah Syndergaard, Mets
Dylan Bundy, Orioles
Jameson Taillon, Pirates
Aaron Sanchez, Blue Jays

Notes: The Top 10 is loaded with potential No. 1 and 2 starters.

[Really Clark?]

but there's very little room for such growth with Wisler, that's the point. he already pitches like a pro. there's some room, sure, but moreso than any other prospect, what you see is what you get. he's high floor low ceiling. why the hell is that controversial?

I can understand that stance on the physical side, he very well may be maxed out physically, I have no problem with that argument even if I think more of this particular player we could very well be reversed on another. And we both be right on our guy. If it was easy we would be scouts. But mentally? The MLB level is about mental changes to stay effective. It is one of the major things that separates a AA level player from a MLB level guy. And it will more than likely take him (like most players) 2-3 years to figure that out while competing at that level. I disagree wholeheartedly about mental growth. If he or any player is not continuing to grow mentally, they won't stick. You have maybe 5-10% of players that are so gifted athletically that they can get away with it that. And may 1% or so can be a true upper level long career type player like that. But I don't think any player that has had a fairly long career, heck even ones that could not get it done physically, topped out their mental approach at the minor league level. That is a pretty silly assertion.

[smootness]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evalu...-diamondbacks/

That is their evaluation of Archie Bradley last year, the same year they listed him as the #1 pitching prospect in baseball. They call him a #3 starter. And as I've already stated, the top 2 pitching prospects for this year (Giolito and Urias) are listed as #2/3 starters. That's ridiculous. They call Wisler a 3/4 starter, so it seems they believe his ceiling isn't too far away from the ceilings of those guys.

As for Albies, that article is from the Augusta Chronicle, where the writer himself is opining that Albies is like Andruw Jones simply as a way of transitioning from where Albies is from to a discussion on his talent level. There isn't anyone legitimate mentioning Andruw Jones in any kind of comparison with Albies, and for good reason. They're different types of player.

That said, Albies certainly has a very high ceiling. You just don't trade a guy like that right now. There are way too many unknowns.

If you go around trading every high-ceiling prospect before they have time to reach that ceiling because you're scared of them falling short, you're going to end up with way less talent overall in your farm system. If we trade Albies now, we'll get a guy in return with a similar current value. The chances of that player having a similar ceiling as well aren't high, so you're just reducing your talent level.

Peraza hasn't even played a major league game yet, so Albies certainly isn't blocked. You wait to see what guys are likely to become, then make decisions from there. And we don't have many position prospects, period, still. We have to keep them and try to trade our surplus of arms for more offense. You can never have too many high-ceiling prospects. Even if some fall short, if you have enough, a few will hit, and that's when you hit the jackpot.

[BoomBoom]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evalu...-diamondbacks/

That is their evaluation of Archie Bradley last year, the same year they listed him as the #1 pitching prospect in baseball. They call him a #3 starter. And as I've already stated, the top 2 pitching prospects for this year (Giolito and Urias) are listed as #2/3 starters. That's ridiculous. They call Wisler a 3/4 starter, so it seems they believe his ceiling isn't too far away from the ceilings of those guys.

As for Albies, that article is from the Augusta Chronicle, where the writer himself is opining that Albies is like Andruw Jones simply as a way of transitioning from where Albies is from to a discussion on his talent level. There isn't anyone legitimate mentioning Andruw Jones in any kind of comparison with Albies, and for good reason. They're different types of player.

That said, Albies certainly has a very high ceiling. You just don't trade a guy like that right now. There are way too many unknowns.

If you go around trading every high-ceiling prospect before they have time to reach that ceiling because you're scared of them falling short, you're going to end up with way less talent overall in your farm system. If we trade Albies now, we'll get a guy in return with a similar current value. The chances of that player having a similar ceiling as well aren't high, so you're just reducing your talent level.

Peraza hasn't even played a major league game yet, so Albies certainly isn't blocked. You wait to see what guys are likely to become, then make decisions from there. And we don't have many position prospects, period, still. We have to keep them and try to trade our surplus of arms for more offense. You can never have too many high-ceiling prospects. Even if some fall short, if you have enough, a few will hit, and that's when you hit the jackpot.

"Summation: Some scouts said if Bradley is, going forward, the guy he was in the 12 post-injury starts this year, he projects as a #4 starter. He was a #2 starter for most before the injury, so the hedge bet from most scouts is the middle ground of a solid #3 starter. As mentioned above, the bullpen possibility is also more distinct now. Arm speed should never be a problem, so his career likely comes down to how well he can adjust his delivery and command to fit in a starter role."

I don't think that supports your point.

[BoomBoom]

I can understand that stance on the physical side, he very well may be maxed out physically, I have no problem with that argument even if I think more of this particular player we could very well be reversed on another. And we both be right on our guy. If it was easy we would be scouts. But mentally? The MLB level is about mental changes to stay effective. It is one of the major things that separates a AA level player from a MLB level guy. And it will more than likely take him (like most players) 2-3 years to figure that out while competing at that level. I disagree wholeheartedly about mental growth. If he or any player is not continuing to grow mentally, they won't stick. You have maybe 5-10% of players that are so gifted athletically that they can get away with it that. And may 1% or so can be a true upper level long career type player like that. But I don't think any player that has had a fairly long career, heck even ones that could not get it done physically, topped out their mental approach at the minor league level. That is a pretty silly assertion.

i don't disagree with any of that. but i think that falls in the realm of maintaining value, not increasing it. i think there's a difference between that, and between being a pitcher and a thrower. most top prospects are still throwers when they reach the Majors. they've never had to learn otherwise because of their tools. Wisler is already a pitcher.

[BoomBoom]

"Summation: Some scouts said if Bradley is, going forward, the guy he was in the 12 post-injury starts this year, he projects as a #4 starter. He was a #2 starter for most before the injury, so the hedge bet from most scouts is the middle ground of a solid #3 starter. As mentioned above, the bullpen possibility is also more distinct now. Arm speed should never be a problem, so his career likely comes down to how well he can adjust his delivery and command to fit in a starter role."

I don't think that supports your point.

by the way, Kris Bryant is projected to have a lower ceiling than several prospects this year. but he's ranked higher. because he has virtually zero chance to flame out and be worth nothing. it's the same with Wisler (absent injury of course). that guaranteed value gives him a high ranking disproportionate to his ceiling.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kris-...ersus-ceiling/

[smootness]

"Summation: Some scouts said if Bradley is, going forward, the guy he was in the 12 post-injury starts this year, he projects as a #4 starter. He was a #2 starter for most before the injury, so the hedge bet from most scouts is the middle ground of a solid #3 starter. As mentioned above, the bullpen possibility is also more distinct now. Arm speed should never be a problem, so his career likely comes down to how well he can adjust his delivery and command to fit in a starter role."

I don't think that supports your point.

He's the #1 prospect, even after his injury, yet before it he was only a #2 starter? No, that is making my point for me.

Unless they think there are 2 or maybe 3 #1 starters in all of baseball. Which is kind of insane.

[BoomBoom]

He's the #1 prospect, even after his injury, yet before it he was only a #2 starter? No, that is making my point for me.

Unless they think there are 2 or maybe 3 #1 starters in all of baseball. Which is kind of insane.

he was a team's #1 prospect. not #1 in baseball. and he had that ranking based on his floor, not his ceiling. you are confusing projection with ceiling. he was projected as a #2. that usually means a ceiling of a 1 and a floor of a 3. Wisler is a lot closer to a ceiling of a 3 with a floor of a 3. that's the difference.

i really don't know why that is so hard to understand.

[War Machine Dawg]

Yeah I don't think you really mean that. Mental growth can happen at any age with a player. Change of approach makes a pitcher more effective. Adding a pitch, etc. all of those can be done after he reaches the big league level.

Eta. I don't think he will increase velocity much if any but at 22 the possibility is probably greater than you are making it out to be. I assume you mean velocity when you say stronger. Because he could get a lot stronger in the sense he retains his stuff deeper into games and sometimes that is what is the difference between a #5 pitcher and a #2. That is something that could happen.

Just ignore BoomBoom. He's one of the dumbest Braves fans on the interwebs.

[Really Clark?]

i don't disagree with any of that. but i think that falls in the realm of maintaining value, not increasing it. i think there's a difference between that, and between being a pitcher and a thrower. most top prospects are still throwers when they reach the Majors. they've never had to learn otherwise because of their tools. Wisler is already a pitcher.

I'm not talking about the difference between a pitcher and thrower. I'm talking the difference between being an average pitcher to good pitcher to great pitcher to elite pitcher. A lot of time it is just simply a better mental approach that is the difference. When you are talking about a thrower vs pitcher you are looking at higher velocity guys usually. I agree he is advanced for his age but that has nothing to do with his ability to grow mentally. You mentioned Maddux earlier, and I agree he was a freak that didn't throw 90 for the bulk of his career. Remember a story Leo Mazzone told about how a guy would get a hit off of Maddux and when he came in he would sit by Leo and tell him that guy is screwed the rest of the game. He just learned how to get him out and Maddux was usually right. Now I am not saying he will be a Maddux at all and that is a small in game adjustment but that is showing mental growth and can be done at any age. The learning and adjusting process is vital and if Maddux wasn't as good at doing that his value would have definitely diminished. Especially since he wasn't a high velocity guy that could creat swing and misses

[smootness]

he was a team's #1 prospect. not #1 in baseball. and he had that ranking based on his floor, not his ceiling. you are confusing projection with ceiling. he was projected as a #2. that usually means a ceiling of a 1 and a floor of a 3. Wisler is a lot closer to a ceiling of a 3 with a floor of a 3. that's the difference.

i really don't know why that is so hard to understand.

Well, he was the #1 overall pitching prospect in baseball before the 2014 season, and I would assume he didn't drop that far if he remained #1 for the D-backs. But I thought both articles came out before the 2014 season, which was my mistake.

I get what you're arguing. I obviously understand that projection and ceiling aren't necessarily the same thing and that some guys with a lower ceiling will be rated higher simply due to either a higher floor or being closer to the majors.

I just don't think that's exactly what Fangraphs is doing in their 'roles'. It's a little tough to figure out because they don't really explain it, but the reason I believe the 'role' is closer to the prospect's ceiling rather than simply their guess is because it replaces the 'upside' given to positional prospects, and they also list a 'risk' value. If you're saying, 'Here's where I project someone (which itself factors in risk), and here is the risk factor of them not making it, that is redundant. But if they're saying, here's a player's ceiling, and here's the risk of them not making it there, that makes sense.

For example, if you tell me one pitcher has a ceiling of a #1 but a 5 risk factor and another has a #3 ceiling but a 1 risk factor, I understand that one is more talented but much less likely to eventually get there than the second. But if you tell me the first pitcher is projected for a #4 with a 5 risk factor (probably fair given the ceiling and risk), and the second guy is projected for a #3 with a 1 risk factor, I have no idea which is more talented and don't know much about what they think of the first's talent level.

When talking about prospects, people always want to know the player's ceiling. I don't want to know anyone's projection of what a 17-year-old kid will actually become because it will almost always be 'good chance of them never becoming anything'.

[msstate7]

Apr-20 11:29 PM
Braves' Foltynewicz hits 99, sharp in loss
Gwinnett righty allows three hits, fans nine in eight innings at Norfolk but his progress on a new slider meant more to the Triple-A Gwinnett right-hander

http://www.milb.com/r/article?ymd=20...icle_119472336

Mike Foltynewicz's fastball lit up the Norfolk radar gun at 99 mph in the eighth inning Monday night as the right-hander eclipsed the 100-pitch mark.

"I don't really try to look at the radar gun," the Braves' No. 3 prospect said. "It just messes you up."

But Foltynewicz, despite early nerves and a new pitch, was hard to decode in his third start of the season. He held Triple-A Norfolk to a run on three hits and a walk while striking out nine over eight innings in Gwinnett's 1-0 loss.

The hard-throwing starter known for his fastball was acquired by the Braves in January and has been as advertised so far -- he's allowed three runs over 16 2/3 innings. But he hasn't received any run support from his new club yet.

Earning a win wasn't the only goal for the 23-year-old, though. He debuted a new pitch -- a hard slider -- and in the process tallied a season high in strikeouts. The learning curve might have cost him as he felt out his improved secondary offering early and gave up a run on a bloop single.

"After my last outing, [the Braves] wanted me to throw a hard slider, somewhere in the 85, 86, 87 range," Foltynewicz said. "My whole life, I could never get it over 81 or 82. But they said, 'As hard as you throw, you should have a power slider.'"

Foltynewicz (0-2) threw 105 pitches, 72 for strikes. He's allowed one run in each of his three outings and sports a 1.62 ERA. Gwinnett (3-8) has dropped six straight.

"This was probably my best outing, this and the last outing were the best I've felt the whole year," he said. "But it's early. I just threw a lot of strikes. The second inning, I started doing too much. I've been working on a new slider, and that wasn't really going for strikes, but other than that, the change was working, and later on, the slider started to work for me well. Fastball command was the big thing for me."

The first-round pick by the Astros in 2010 bounced back from one shaky inning in the second, when he walked Christian Walker -- his only free pass of the game -- and allowed singles to Steve Clevenger and Michael Almanzar that led to the game's lone run. The righty allowed just one more hit the rest of the night en route to his longest outing since July 24, 2013 with Double-A Corpus Christi.

"There were a lot of fly balls tonight, the wind was strong, so my defense did a great job," he said. "I kind of got stronger as the game went one. If felt pretty good."

Foltynewicz struck out two in the sixth, seventh and eighth as he got a better feel for his slider. Facing Triple-A batters while testing out a new pitch probably isn't ideal, but Foltynewicz said he was pleased with the progress he made.

"A couple stayed up in the zone and they popped up, but it's coming along all right," he said. "It's been my focus for the last four days, working on that in the bullpen. A couple of them broke off that were nice, but I need that consistency, that will really help me come along."

So how do you take an 81-mph slider and turn it into an 87-mph slider? It's like throwing an egg, Foltynewicz said.

"I really choke all my pitches, I grab the ball as hard as I can," he said. "But with the slider, they said they want me to hold it like an egg. Turn the knob at the end, throw it like it's a fastball and give it a little turn. I'm trying to make it happen, I was trying to get the spin on it, and it was popping up a little bit, but I'll keep working on that. I'm getting good at it, it's just work ethic with that pitch."

With his old slider, Foltynewicz went 7-7 with a 5.08 ERA and 102 strikeouts in 102 2/3 innings at Triple-A last season while appearing in 16 games out of the bullpen for Houston. In the Majors, the righty struck out 14 batters in 18 2/3 innings, allowing 11 runs and three homers in the process. The Astros packaged him in a deal to Atlanta on Jan. 14, a move Foltynewicz called "shocking" when it happened.

Now Foltynewicz is adjusting to a new organization and strategy. He said he was a little surprised that Gwinnett let him go past 80 pitches and into the eighth.

"I felt really good in the eighth, I don't know what happened, but I looked at the scoreboard and thought, 'Hmm, this is going pretty good,'" he said. "I was just challenging the hitters, I let them hit it. This a big park, so I just let the defense do the work. I was surprised how good I felt, I haven't thrown over 80 pitches since Spring Training. I came in for the seventh and I said, 'Let me go back out there.' My body felt good."

[smootness]

Yeah, that was a big start from Folty. Great stuff to hear about his slider, both because it means he's coming along and may be able to stick as a SP and because it is just more evidence that McDowell and the Braves' pitching coaches know what they're doing.

[BoomBoom]

I'm not talking about the difference between a pitcher and thrower. I'm talking the difference between being an average pitcher to good pitcher to great pitcher to elite pitcher. A lot of time it is just simply a better mental approach that is the difference. When you are talking about a thrower vs pitcher you are looking at higher velocity guys usually. I agree he is advanced for his age but that has nothing to do with his ability to grow mentally. You mentioned Maddux earlier, and I agree he was a freak that didn't throw 90 for the bulk of his career. Remember a story Leo Mazzone told about how a guy would get a hit off of Maddux and when he came in he would sit by Leo and tell him that guy is screwed the rest of the game. He just learned how to get him out and Maddux was usually right. Now I am not saying he will be a Maddux at all and that is a small in game adjustment but that is showing mental growth and can be done at any age. The learning and adjusting process is vital and if Maddux wasn't as good at doing that his value would have definitely diminished. Especially since he wasn't a high velocity guy that could creat swing and misses

i agree with all that, but they just now taught Folty a new pitch. in AAA. HUGE difference from Wisler, no matter how much butthurt that is generating. he is already maximizing his tools, and will have to mentally grow and adjust just to maintain, there won't be much of a learning curve improvement trend.

My fave Maddux story is about a game i remember watching. He had a no-hitter going into the 8th, with an 8 run lead, against the Astros. Jeff Bagwell was up that inning, and hit a bomb. Much later in his career Maddux was asked about it, and said he gave him a pitch he would normally never give him, and said he did it because for the rest of Bagwell's career he'd be looking for that pitch, and never get it.

[msstate7]

Even though we got rocked tonight, I feel better about chances bc Cahill looked much better. He run out of gas in the 5th, but that's probably to be expected since he missed a lot of ST. Gosselin's error sure didn't help either. Wouldn't be surprised to see goose get sent down when terdo is healthy