Quote Originally Posted by smootness View Post
First, this isn't really true. Wisler may have less projection than some other prospects, but he's still considered a high-end arm. There is definitely plenty of room for improvement from him.

Second, you pretty much won't find anyone in the lower levels of the minors who is projected to have a ceiling of a #1 starter by places like Fangraphs. It's fine to me if someone wants to say that their projection for them is a #3 starter or so (given the chance they won't hit their ceiling), but they consistently give pretty much everyone who isn't a huge prospect at the time of the draft a ceiling of a #3 or #4 starter at best.

Mike Minor was drafted 7th and was said to have the ceiling of a #4 or #5 starter when he was drafted. He has battled injuries, but when he was healthy and initially came up, he was already better than that. So obviously his ceiling was always higher than a 4/5 starter. That's my issue with this stuff.

Fangraphs would have said Greg Maddux had a ceiling of a spot starter because he didn't K 13 per 9 in the minors.
of course there's some room for improvement, we've already covered that he has to improve against lefties. but most prospects don't know how to pitch yet. hell it takes until the 3rd or 4th year in the bigs for most pitchers to figure that out. and Wisler is mostly there already. there's no room for him to grow stronger, and very little for mental growth. you don't find a prospect with less room for projection than that, period.

plenty of prospects have a #1 ceiling, or #2:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...reatest-upside

sure, plenty have a #3 tag too, because that has great value.

Mike Minor actually surprised most scouts by adding velocity to his fastball while in the Minors. few college pitchers do that. that massively jumped his ceiling. and as we've seen from his injury history, he has to be 100% to be effective. that's the difference between a high-ceiling guy and a low one.

Maddux is just a ridiculous outlier. Clemens is a better analogy. he had a #1 ceiling, but he had to learn how to pitch to reach it. Wisler could come out of the gate with Clemens numbers, but he'll never reach sub-3 levels. Folty and Fried, while obviously not at Clemens' level, are a lot closer to that analogy than Wisler, who compares better to Mike Minor. He's a lock to be a better than average SP for years, which has value in the tens of millions of dollars, which makes him a top prospect, but he'll never sniff being an ace.