2014 SEC Games Bunt Numbers!!!

[shoeless joe]

And the deal is this is something that could easily improve our overall run production if the coaches would just chill out on all the sacrifice bunting in almost every situation with a baserunner. For those that want to harp on the bullpen and nothing but the bullpen for every aspect of all of our woes (i.e. Todd4State and a few others), there is nothing so concrete like this that can be done to help that problem. All you can dor there is keep changing out who you use in the pen until you find someone who can throw strikes while not getting slapped all over the yard.

Hitting away instead of bunting will not help the pen get one single out.

I am going to assume you are saying we should try to win 11-10 instead of losing 10-5 after having a 5-2 lead after 7. Problem is...not bunting any will not increase run production by 6 runs a game. In fact, no where even close.

However, 4-6 runs a game would be plenty with our starters If our pen didn't suck.

[Smitty]

The only people making this an either/or situation are Todd and Joe.

[maroonmania]

Hitting away instead of bunting will not help the pen get one single out.

I am going to assume you are saying we should try to win 11-10 instead of losing 10-5 after having a 5-2 lead after 7. Problem is...not bunting any will not increase run production by 6 runs a game. In fact, no where even close.

However, 4-6 runs a game would be plenty with our starters If our pen didn't suck.

Man, the agenda from the other side on this apparently has NO LOGIC. What are you talking about with swinging away not helping the pen??? What kind of lame question is that? We are talking about something concrete that can help us score some more runs and take some of the pressure off of a currently very bad bullpen. ONE HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE OTHER!! I REPEAT, ONE HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE OTHER!! There is nothing so concrete that can be done to PREVENT RUNS other than tell the guys in our pen we would like for them to throw strikes and get more guys out, DUH!

[I seen it dawg]

Will anybody get this info to The Coaches?

Yeah they are out of toilet paper.

[I seen it dawg]

Hilarious. But wait, if you question Cohen or show how he is holding us back, you are an idiot and should be bashed and shamed back into submission!!!!!!! Todd, Engie, ISeenIT, et.al where are you on this one? Maybe they are thinking up and composing all their apologies to Smitty, myself and others on here who've seen this from the beginning.

The 0 out bunting with a man on 1st has it's place in the game and can be defended in certain situations, but bunting with 0 outs and a man on 2nd is never acceptable unless you are drag bunting for a hit. Never should sacfirice in that situation, ever. The chances from scoring from 2nd with 0 outs are astronomically high, so why would you give up an out to roughly keep your odds the same of scoring 1 run?

You should rename yourself douchedawg. I hate all the bunting. I'm not happy with what we are doing. i don't give a shit if people bash Cohen. Those of you that put NEVER and ALWAYS for game strategy situations in baseball are ****ing stupid. That's the problem. Not that it's Cohen. Our staff including him are doing head scratching things right now.

[I seen it dawg]

Not just picking on you as I already said I agree with your above approach mostly, but unless I'm misremembering I think you have a slightly higher percentage of scoring one run with a runner on 3rd and 1 out vs runner on 2 and 0 outs. Your total run expectancy is a little less but the ability to score 1 run goes up. Tied game bottom of 9th would be the perfect time to consider bunting a man to 3rd. Not saying the other approach is bad or invalid but you have choices.

He knows way more than everybody else. You're not picking on him. He will tell you how you are an idiot.

[RougeDawg]

Not just picking on you as I already said I agree with your above approach mostly, but unless I'm misremembering I think you have a slightly higher percentage of scoring one run with a runner on 3rd and 1 out vs runner on 2 and 0 outs. Your total run expectancy is a little less but the ability to score 1 run goes up. Tied game bottom of 9th would be the perfect time to consider bunting a man to 3rd. Not saying the other approach is bad or invalid but you have choices.

Correct. Overall scoring percentages and amounts are greatly higher with no outs versus 1 out. So many ways to productively move a runner from 2nd to third, without simply bailing out the defense by giving an out. The amount of outs also influence how the defense plays it. Outfielders/Infielders will play in more of a position to prevent a follow up double and the second man off of second base on a hit. They will play slightly different, more straight up, in hopes of bailing runner at plate. It's really complicated, but we shouldn't be giving up outs unless absolutely necessary to get the tying run into scoring position in the latter 3 innings. A runner on 2nd is already 1 hit away from scoring, so why cut down your opportunities to get that hit by 1/3 the chance?

[War Machine Dawg]

You should rename yourself douchedawg. I hate all the bunting. I'm not happy with what we are doing. i don't give a shit if people bash Cohen. Those of you that put NEVER and ALWAYS for game strategy situations in baseball are ****ing stupid. That's the problem. Not that it's Cohen. Our staff including him are doing head scratching things right now.

I gotta admit, you and Engie have definitely come around as it relates to bunting and offense. Just wish Cohen, the only guy that matters, would come around on it. With the way Cohen and Butch rave about Paul Young, I'm hoping he can be part of the solution to our bullpen issues. Give him a shot closing and see what happens. If he can handle it, finding middle relief guys is exponentially easier.

[I seen it dawg]

Correct. Overall scoring percentages and amounts are greatly higher with no outs versus 1 out. So many ways to productively move a runner from 2nd to third, without simply bailing out the defense by giving an out. The amount of outs also influence how the defense plays it. Outfielders/Infielders will play in more of a position to prevent a follow up double and the second man off of second base on a hit. They will play slightly different, more straight up, in hopes of bailing runner at plate. It's really complicated, but we shouldn't be giving up outs unless absolutely necessary to get the tying run into scoring position in the latter 3 innings. A runner on 2nd is already 1 hit away from scoring, so why cut down your opportunities to get that hit by 1/3 the chance?

No shit? Maybe that's why it depends on the situation. Even sometimes going against the percentages either way because of all the different variables involved in a particular situation and what it could lead to.

[I seen it dawg]

I gotta admit, you and Engie have definitely come around as it relates to bunting and offense. Just wish Cohen, the only guy that matters, would come around on it. With the way Cohen and Butch rave about Paul Young, I'm hoping he can be part of the solution to our bullpen issues. Give him a shot closing and see what happens. If he can handle it, finding middle relief guys is exponentially easier.

I wouldn't say come around because I've always disliked the frequency we small ball. I just am not a fan. What I get spun up about is the Smittys of the world being so black and white and never being able to understand the time and place for different strategies in situations. It's ok if that's the case just don't act like you are Casey Stengal about it all. There are times and places for everything during a game.

[RougeDawg]

Hilarious! I've only restated this year what I've been saying the last 3-4 years. The only difference in this year vs the last few, is you and others no longer have a leg to stand on, in your attempts to call me an idiot for what I am stating about our team that is causing the poor hitting and bunting. Why did everyone go to extreme extents the past few years to discredit my posts and call me an idiot for what I was bringing to the table about hitting? I was showing how Cohen was actually holding back the offense and our players mechanics were not that great. And this was the reason for the offensive woes. All the Cohen defenders came out of the woodwork, calling me an idiot and tried to disprove me by asking "are you a hitting coach" and such. Now that people are finally seeing the light, the Cohen defenders cannot defend the trends that cannot be refuted.

Baseball is a complicated game physically and mentally. Those people who've never been exposed to the intricacies of the game, do not really know about them. I try to bring in depth posts to explain the things that our players are doing and why we may not be doing something successfully. Hence my posts on our mechanics and why we have very little power. Or our bunting woes and the mechanical flaws we display that is causing that. Or the baserunning woes. Base running is almost as complicated as hitting or defense and had a ton of factors that should be analyzed each play by the runner. I say all of this because I'm tired of seeing us not get the full potential of our players by either not teaching correct physical mechanics and mental aspects or hiring someone that will.

Do I really need to go back and compile archived posts to refresh everyone?

He knows way more than everybody else. You're not picking on him. He will tell you how you are an idiot.

[I seen it dawg]

I gotta admit, you and Engie have definitely come around as it relates to bunting and offense. Just wish Cohen, the only guy that matters, would come around on it. With the way Cohen and Butch rave about Paul Young, I'm hoping he can be part of the solution to our bullpen issues. Give him a shot closing and see what happens. If he can handle it, finding middle relief guys is exponentially easier.

We've got to find a back end guy desperately. If we do there won't be so much nuclear war over the small ball. Our bullpen is killing our season. A stopper moves everybody up in role which makes them way more effective.

[shoeless joe]

The only people making this an either/or situation are Todd and Joe.

Not making it an either/or, instead I'm pointing out that we could still win with our offensive production IF our pen didn't suck. If we scored 2 more runs a game we'd still lose because our pen sucks.

I think the bullpen is the big issue, people with an agenda do not want to look at it from that perspective because us losing while bunting makes them feel good about their knowledge and they run back here and yell "I told you so!", when the absolute fact remains that the reason we have lost so many games we should have won is our bullpen.

And for the thousandth time: I agree that we bunt too much. I think it can be a good play at times but Cohen needs to scale back and let our hitters that we do have hit.

[I seen it dawg]

Hilarious! I've only restated this year what I've been saying the last 3-4 years. The only difference in this year vs the last few, is you and others no longer have a leg to stand on, in your attempts to call me an idiot for what I am stating about our team that is causing the poor hitting and bunting. Why did everyone go to extreme extents the past few years to discredit my posts and call me an idiot for what I was bringing to the table about hitting? I was showing how Cohen was actually holding back the offense and our players mechanics were not that great. And this was the reason for the offensive woes. All the Cohen defendes came out of the woodwork, calling me an idiot and tried to disprove me by asking "are you a hitting coach" and such. Now that people are finally seeing the light, the Cohen defenders cannot defend the trends that cannot be refuted.

Baseball is a complicated game physically and mentally. Those people who've never been exposed to the intricacies of the game, do not really know about them. I try to bring in depth posts to explain the things that our players are doing and why we may not be doing something successfully. Hence my posts on our mechanics and why we have very little power. Or our bunting woes and the mechanical flaws we display that is causing that. Or the baserunning woes. Base running is almost as complicated as hitting or defense and had a ton of factors that should be analyzed each play by the runner. I say all of this because I'm tired of seeing us not get the full potential of our players by either not teaching correct physical mechanics and mental aspects or hiring someone that will.

Do I really need to go back and compile archived posts to refresh everyone?

Again...I DONT LIKE ALL THE BUNTING. Stop including me in all your rants and chest thumping about how you were disrespected and your knowledge was laughed at. You have become one of those that have to tell people all the time how much you are right or how much more you know. You haven't said a damn thing at any time that people who have either played a little or coached a little haven't heard or know already. And you say it over and over and over and over and over and over and over. You're getting right there with Smitty which is being ignorable.

[I seen it dawg]

Not making it an either/or, instead I'm pointing out that we could still win with our offensive production IF our pen didn't suck. If we scored 2 more runs a game we'd still lose because our pen sucks.

I think the bullpen is the big issue, people with an agenda do not want to look at it from that perspective because us losing while bunting makes them feel good about their knowledge and they run back here and yell "I told you so!", when the absolute fact remains that the reason we have lost so many games we should have won is our bullpen.

And for the thousandth time: I agree that we bunt too much. I think it can be a good play at times but Cohen needs to scale back and let our hitters that we do have hit.

Post of the thread.

[maroonmania]

Not making it an either/or, instead I'm pointing out that we could still win with our offensive production IF our pen didn't suck. If we scored 2 more runs a game we'd still lose because our pen sucks.

We've lost by scores of 3-2, 2-1, 9-6, 3-1,10-5 and 8-4. So of our 6 losses 3 of them definitely lie with the pitching staff but the other 3 are squarely on the shoulders of the offense. If you hold someone to 3 runs or less you should be able to find a way to win especially at home. Bottom line, 2 more runs per game would likely have us at 3 total losses right now rather than 6 even WITH the crappy performances we have gotten out of our bullpen. I love how you say you are not making it either/or but then you say the bullpen is the big issue. Unfortunately, we have 2 big issues at the moment, bullpen and offense. When you NEVER score more than 4 or 5 runs you constantly keep added pressure on your pitching staff because they have to be VERY good ALL the time.

[maroonmania]

delete

[Todd4State]

Did it not dawn on anybody that there is a REASON why smitty is using stats from LAST YEAR in SEC ONLY games to "prove" his point? And I will man up and apologize for being hard on some people with some name calling- which is not me. So, apologies for that.

Now, that said- the TRUTH about our bunting and our offense. For THIS year. I included times we sac bunted and time we bunted and recorded a hit or reached on an error. I looked at home many runs we scored and also how many times we didn't score. I think this paints a more accurate picture rather than percentages of what might happen.

TOTAL BUNTS- 55

SACS- 27

BUNTS THAT WENT FOR HITS- 24

TIMES WE BUNTED AND THE OTHER TEAM MADE AN ERROR- 4

TOTAL RUNS SCORED IN INNINGS WE BUNTED- 66

INNINGS WE BUNTED AND DIDN'T SCORE- 14

I think the results are pretty obvious- we bunt a lot. BUT we reach base about 50% of the time we do it- including times we are trying to make an out. And it's impossible to know unless we are a coach or player how many of those "sacrifices" were meant to be trying for a hit. Now, I did not- but should have counted the innings that we scored a run when we bunted. Looking at the data and going through all of it, I am certain it's a majority of the time.

But these numbers bring up a point that I think gets lost in this discussion. And that's being really good at bunting. I would surmise that in some cases teams hurt themselves because they don't work on bunting enough to be good at it. To be clear, I'm not suggesting that if you have Mark McGwire that you should have him spend hours working on laying down bunts. What I am saying is that speed guys should focus on it more- because those are the players that can really use it as a weapon. So, the difference between 2014 and THIS year is we're a lot better at bunting. OLD sabermetrics would say "you just shouldn't bunt". I say work on it with the right players and just like anything else you will see benefits.

And NOT one word from me about the bullpen. Until then.

[Todd4State]

Did it not dawn on anybody that there is a REASON why smitty is using stats from LAST YEAR in SEC ONLY games to "prove" his point? And I will man up and apologize for being hard on some people with some name calling- which is not me. So, apologies for that.

Now, that said- the TRUTH about our bunting and our offense. For THIS year. I included times we sac bunted and time we bunted and recorded a hit or reached on an error. I looked at home many runs we scored and also how many times we didn't score. I think this paints a more accurate picture rather than percentages of what might happen.

TOTAL BUNTS- 55

SACS- 27

BUNTS THAT WENT FOR HITS- 24

TIMES WE BUNTED AND THE OTHER TEAM MADE AN ERROR- 4

TOTAL RUNS SCORED IN INNINGS WE BUNTED- 66

INNINGS WE BUNTED AND DIDN'T SCORE- 14

I think the results are pretty obvious- we bunt a lot. BUT we reach base about 50% of the time we do it- including times we are trying to make an out. And it's impossible to know unless we are a coach or player how many of those "sacrifices" were meant to be trying for a hit. Now, I did not- but should have counted the innings that we scored a run when we bunted. Looking at the data and going through all of it, I am certain it's a majority of the time.

But these numbers bring up a point that I think gets lost in this discussion. And that's being really good at bunting. I would surmise that in some cases teams hurt themselves because they don't work on bunting enough to be good at it. To be clear, I'm not suggesting that if you have Mark McGwire that you should have him spend hours working on laying down bunts. What I am saying is that speed guys should focus on it more- because those are the players that can really use it as a weapon. So, the difference between 2014 and THIS year is we're a lot better at bunting. OLD sabermetrics would say "you just shouldn't bunt". I say work on it with the right players and just like anything else you will see benefits.

And NOT one word from me about the bullpen. Until then.

[Todd4State]

We've lost by scores of 3-2, 2-1, 9-6, 3-1,10-5 and 8-4. So of our 6 losses 3 of them definitely lie with the pitching staff but the other 3 are squarely on the shoulders of the offense. If you hold someone to 3 runs or less you should be able to find a way to win especially at home. Bottom line, 2 more runs per game would likely have us at 3 total losses right now rather than 6 even WITH the crappy performances we have gotten out of our bullpen. I love how you say you are not making it either/or but then you say the bullpen is the big issue. Unfortunately, we have 2 big issues at the moment, bullpen and offense. When you NEVER score more than 4 or 5 runs you constantly keep added pressure on your pitching staff because they have to be VERY good ALL the time.

Speaking solely on bunting- in the three games we scored 2 runs or less in your sample size- we bunted a grand total of four times in those three games combined.

I do agree with you that three of those losses are on the bullpen and three are on the offense. But as far as the bullpen is concerned, in the time frame of your sample size it doesn't include a game that we won in extra innings where we had a 3+ run lead, blew it and then won.

It would be interesting to see how many complaints about the offense would be on this board if we were 20-3 as opposed to 17-6.