Keep an eye on the tropics

[War Machine Dawg]

Models more than three days out are for entertainment purposes only.

The GFS has had several phantom tropical systems this year, I'd hold off on worrying about this at all.

Definitely agree with this. Hell, the forecasters struggle getting it right from 24 hours before a lot of the time.

[PMDawg]

I got y'all. The only problem I see with this is the extreme amount of shear that this conglomerate of storms will run into soon.

Nm

[RougeDawg]

Nothing to see here. The water temps are 82-83 where the low is currently and the maximum temps in entire gulf are 86-87. This storm will not develop very much with the current water conditions. Remember that a majority of the large storms develop when the water is in the upper 80's and 90's for sure. Katrina year the central gulf was pushing 95-96. Along the coast we recorded a water temp of 98 a week before landfall, just off of Horn Island. Ocean felt like a hot tub that year. Hottest I've ever felt the water in my lifetime.

[TheRef]

Nothing to see here. The water temps are 82-83 where the low is currently and the maximum temps in entire gulf are 86-87. This storm will not develop very much with the current water conditions. Remember that a majority of the large storms develop when the water is in the upper 80's and 90's for sure. Katrina year the central gulf was pushing 95-96. Along the coast we recorded a water temp of 98 a week before landfall, just off of Horn Island. Ocean felt like a hot tub that year. Hottest I've ever felt the water in my lifetime.

That's the cold-blooded truth. SST are low surrounding the Low Pressure. Granted, SST in the Gulf are pretty high but not nearly as high as they were during Katrina. You walked into the Gulf that year and started sweating. Not to mention that there's a section of 40 knot shear right in the way of the Low Pressure system headed towards the Gulf.

[starkvegasdawg]

I saw the latest GFS was brining it on shore around Gulf Shores as a borderline tropical storm at best. If that model verifies about all this storm is going to do is rain out some Labor Day weekend cookouts in Lower Alabama.

[AROB44]

I saw the latest GFS was brining it on shore around Gulf Shores as a borderline tropical storm at best. If that model verifies about all this storm is going to do is rain out some Labor Day weekend cookouts in Lower Alabama.

I'll take it down here if it will help alleviate the heat !!!

[TheRef]

FWIW, I don't see this system making it very far due to the > 40 knots of shear that it will have to push through and the less than favorable SST that it will have to travel to, if it wants to do that. That's the thing, the system is going to move towards the most favorable areas, and even then it's not that favorable.

Also, if I see any of you post from that bogus site that is already claiming that we will have a major hurricane form from this disturbance. I will find you, and I will slap you.

[DownwardDawg]

FWIW, I don't see this system making it very far due to the > 40 knots of shear that it will have to push through and the less than favorable SST that it will have to travel to, if it wants to do that. That's the thing, the system is going to move towards the most favorable areas, and even then it's not that favorable.

Also, if I see any of you post from that bogus site that is already claiming that we will have a major hurricane form from this disturbance. I will find you, and I will slap you.

Which site???

[Mjoelner34]

Which site???

Any site that this guy has anything to do with:

[starkvegasdawg]

Which site???

Just remember the name Kevin Martin. If you see his name attached to anything run as fast as you can away from it. He is the biggest fraud there is when it comes to fake weather reports. Douchebag has even threatened to sue the NWS when they came out and said he is a sham. Also big into stealing photos of storm chasers and passing them off as his own.

[State82]

Also, if I see any of you post from that bogus site that is already claiming that we will have a major hurricane form from this disturbance. I will find you, and I will slap you.[/IMG]

If it doesn't come from you Ref, we ain't buying.

[TheRef]

If it doesn't come from you Ref, we ain't buying.

Well besides the trusted sources such as NHC, NWS, or *winces* The Weather Channel.

[RougeDawg]

Well besides the trusted sources such as NHC, NWS, or *winces* The Weather Channel.

Haaaa. Those pathetic bastards are praying more than Freezus on a recruiting visit, that this storm develops into something news worthy. I cannot stand the weather channel folk. They love when terrible things happen weather wise.

Looks like this thing may just be a redundant phrase the weather channel people like to use, a "weather event".

[TheRef]

Haaaa. Those pathetic bastards are praying more than Freezus on a recruiting visit, that this storm develops into something news worthy. I cannot stand the weather channel folk. They love when terrible things happen weather wise.

Looks like this thing may just be a redundant phrase the weather channel people like to use, a "weather event".

Well I didn't want to leave anyone out. I don't like TWC personally. But I know some people do

[DownwardDawg]

Well I didn't want to leave anyone out. I don't like TWC personally. But I know some people do

Impact Weather is the one I trust for tropical weather. They get paid good money from the oil companies to provide accurate information. Well, as accurate as you can be when discussing tropics.

[scottycameron]

Has anybody got a year on when we became complete pussies when it comes to weather? I'm guessing post katrina, which was what, 2003? Maybe it was before that a good many years but did that take everybody on the fence and turn them completely into pussies? I had this discussion a few times and nobody knows when people really got shit their pants scared over rain, etc.

[RC3]

Yeah might have had something to do with what, a couple of thousand people dying during Katrina. Wow

[Goat Holder]

Just remember the name Kevin Martin. If you see his name attached to anything run as fast as you can away from it. He is the biggest fraud there is when it comes to fake weather reports. Douchebag has even threatened to sue the NWS when they came out and said he is a sham. Also big into stealing photos of storm chasers and passing them off as his own.

http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/201...l#incart_river

[Pollodawg]

Has anybody got a year on when we became complete pussies when it comes to weather? I'm guessing post katrina, which was what, 2003? Maybe it was before that a good many years but did that take everybody on the fence and turn them completely into pussies? I had this discussion a few times and nobody knows when people really got shit their pants scared over rain, etc.

Maybe it was after huge portions of a major American city were destroyed. And Katrina was August 2005.

[TheRef]

Has anybody got a year on when we became complete pussies when it comes to weather? I'm guessing post katrina, which was what, 2003? Maybe it was before that a good many years but did that take everybody on the fence and turn them completely into pussies? I had this discussion a few times and nobody knows when people really got shit their pants scared over rain, etc.

It's not just the rain. It's the 100+ MPH winds, 3+ feet of storm surge, extreme flash flooding, quick spawning tornadoes, complete leveling of property, I could go on and on. We haven't become pussies, to use your language, to the weather. We have become more aware if the damage that weather can create and the chaos it can leave behind. People like you make me want to take you hurricane chasing where there is NO escape. When you're in there, you can't just drive out of the way. You're in it for the long haul. We are actually very lucky to not get worse storms. Super Typhoon Haiyan would completely cripple the Southeastern United States. And it's not because we are pussies to weather now. It's because storms like that are basically animals. And if you think about it, they are. They do whatever they can to strengthen and survive. Katrina was a literal freak of nature. Haiyan was a freak of nature. So think before you make another dumbass comment like that.