Don't look now Braves fans

[MetEdDawg]

Should have had an RBI too because I think La Stella should have been waived home. Got a chance for his 3rd run scored of the game if Freeman can come through here.

[Pioneer Dawg]

Bj second straight game with multiple hits

2 in a row. That's what I call a streak

[Dawg61]

Giants set a new record for futility, they became the fastest team to lose a 9.5 game lead in the last 114 years of baseball and they set the new record by a WEEK. It only took the Giants 22 days to lose a 9.5 game lead. Fastest team before that was 29 days.

[msstate7]

2 in a row. That's what I call a streak

Well and an 11-game hit streak.

[KB21]

Yeah I can't believe baseball was ever played without sabermetrics. Since it's the be all end all as some think. How could managers ever do their job without BABIP or FIP or Pythagorean Expectation?

Give me a break. If you know anything about baseball, you can watch it without needing statistics in front of you to know what guys do or what tendencies they have. Right now you can watch BJ Upton get on base, get the guy behind him more FBs, and watch the Braves score more runs. Now is that the only reason why the Braves are scoring more runs right now? No. But saying it isn't a part or saying you should change things just because it won't work long term is dumb.

Baseball is full of ups and down where players peak, slump, get injured, etc. Some on here and many who play/watch/coach try to out think themselves because statistics say do this when this happens or make this change when this stat says this. How about what does common sense say do when your lead off guy, who has already shown he struggles in the 2 hole and the 6-8 hole, is averaging .8 runs per game in his last 10 games from the lead off spot?? It says keep his ass there.

Too many people try and sound smarter than they really are by spouting off some guys BABIP or some other bull shit stat to make their case. I would like to see someone make the case for why you would change what is working during an 8 game win streak? I'm not happy with how BJ has done for us overall since he got to Atlanta, but it's pretty damn hard to argue with what he's done lately. One hit per game may not seem like much, but when you score 80% of the time you get that one hit like he has during the last 10 games, common sense says keep it up until it runs dry. If it does, you find another solution like baseball managers have done since the game started. And you don't have to look at a guy's secondary average or his range score to do it.

It tells me that it is a very small sample size and to look at his career numbers, where he is a career .323 OBP from the leadoff spot, which will not cut it as a lead off hitter. His history also tells me that he is currently regressing towards his mean. He's had a very long stretch of being horrible that he is at least getting to the point where he is not so horrible, but he's still not a lead off hitter. His inability to get on base consistently will catch up with the team, and when that happens, I have little doubts that Fredi will not do what he should do and put Tommy La Stella in the lead off spot. Tommy had 5 at bats today. He's on base 4 times in those 5 at bats.

The run expectancy of the line up that Freddie has put out there with a healthy Evan Gattis with Upton leading off is 4.032 runs a game. With La Stella leading off, Upton hitting 6th, and Simmons hitting 8th, the Braves run expectancy is almost .3 runs higher at 4.3 runs per game.

[KB21]

Sweet Jesus thank you. People say "Oh God it won't work long term!! How stupid to keep him there!! Sabermetrics says it was stupid to begin with!! Once he cools off you will see what that team really is." Ummm, the manager makes a change. Like you said it's not that big of a deal. Fredi isn't afraid to make changes either, so I feel ok with the fact that if BJ goes 2 or 3 games without getting on base that he would make a change.

Have you seen how slow Fredi is to make the necessary changes, and even when he changes, he does something that is completely nonsensical like putting his worst two on base players at the top of the line up.

[KB21]

You're eyes fool you, and people who use the eye test tend to see what they want to see, IMO.

The numbers do not lie. The number that correlates most strongly with runs scored is on base percentage, not how fast you can run when you are on base. The idea that the lead off hitter has to be a speed guy has been debunked by the numbers.

[TheRef]

You're eyes fool you, and people who use the eye test tend to see what they want to see, IMO.

The numbers do not lie. The number that correlates most strongly with runs scored is on base percentage, not how fast you can run when you are on base. The idea that the lead off hitter has to be a speed guy has been debunked by the numbers.

It's worked for nine straight wins so obviously SOMETHING is working.

[Todd4State]

It tells me that it is a very small sample size and to look at his career numbers, where he is a career .323 OBP from the leadoff spot, which will not cut it as a lead off hitter. His history also tells me that he is currently regressing towards his mean. He's had a very long stretch of being horrible that he is at least getting to the point where he is not so horrible, but he's still not a lead off hitter. His inability to get on base consistently will catch up with the team, and when that happens, I have little doubts that Fredi will not do what he should do and put Tommy La Stella in the lead off spot. Tommy had 5 at bats today. He's on base 4 times in those 5 at bats.

The run expectancy of the line up that Freddie has put out there with a healthy Evan Gattis with Upton leading off is 4.032 runs a game. With La Stella leading off, Upton hitting 6th, and Simmons hitting 8th, the Braves run expectancy is almost .3 runs higher at 4.3 runs per game.

So, that's like a run every 3 games or so? That's almost a negligible amount.

[MetEdDawg]

The run expectancy of the line up that Freddie has put out there with a healthy Evan Gattis with Upton leading off is 4.032 runs a game. With La Stella leading off, Upton hitting 6th, and Simmons hitting 8th, the Braves run expectancy is almost .3 runs higher at 4.3 runs per game.

I have a new statistic that I just created. It's called run actuality. The Braves have actually scored 5.45 runs per game during BJ's time in the lead off spot and WITHOUT Gattis. So run expectancy doesn't mean squat right now. Will it at some point? Possibly. But right now it doesn't.

The problem you statistics folks have is that you have the inability to step away from what should be happening or what is expected to happen and you can't look at the short term and what is ACTUALLY going on right now. Screw his career numbers and screw his career OBP. What RIGHT NOW tells me is that BJ has scored 10 runs during his 11 game hitting streak from the lead off spot. He's stealing bases, he's getting on base at a higher rate, and he's doing things to help the team, which before he was doing very little of. He's doing things at a productive level and the team is scoring runs because of it. That is indisputable. But you are telling me that I should look at run expectancy and change my line up during a 9 game winning streak??

No one is disputing that BJ is probably not an ideal lead off hitter the rest of the season, although he does have experience there and a level of comfort there. But right now he is productive from that spot in a way that he hasn't been productive in any other spot during his tenure with us. Fredi has used like 6 different lead off men this year, so I feel pretty confident he will change if BJ starts to regress, which is currently not happening yet. But if BJ has a total mentality change and decides to 100% embrace the role of a lead off guy, I think it's possible he could be successful there. He's not there right now, but I think he could get there.

[KB21]

So, that's like a run every 3 games or so? That's almost a negligible amount.

Over the coarse of an entire seasons, that .3 runs comes out to be 49 runs.

[KB21]

I have a new statistic that I just created. It's called run actuality. The Braves have actually scored 5.45 runs per game during BJ's time in the lead off spot and WITHOUT Gattis. So run expectancy doesn't mean squat right now. Will it at some point? Possibly. But right now it doesn't.

The problem you statistics folks have is that you have the inability to step away from what should be happening or what is expected to happen and you can't look at the short term and what is ACTUALLY going on right now. Screw his career numbers and screw his career OBP. What RIGHT NOW tells me is that BJ has scored 10 runs during his 11 game hitting streak from the lead off spot. He's stealing bases, he's getting on base at a higher rate, and he's doing things to help the team, which before he was doing very little of. He's doing things at a productive level and the team is scoring runs because of it. That is indisputable. But you are telling me that I should look at run expectancy and change my line up during a 9 game winning streak??

No one is disputing that BJ is probably not a lead off hitter long term, although he does have experience there and a level of comfort there. But right now he is productive from that spot in a way that he hasn't been productive in any other spot during his tenure with us. Fredi has used like 6 different lead off men this year, so I feel pretty confident he will change if BJ starts to regress, which is currently not happening yet. But if BJ has a total mentality change and decides to 100% embrace the role of a lead off guy, I think it's possible he could be successful there. He's not there right now, but I think he could get there.

Dan Uggla still holds a roster spot, making the Braves play with a 24 man roster while Phil Gosselin is tearing AAA up. Fredi is slow to make the moves he needs to make.

Jordan Schafer still has a roster spot while Todd Cunningham is a better hitter than both Jordan and BJ Upton at this point, but he's still in AAA because Fredi is slow to make a move.

How long did it take to get La Stella in the line up consistently? He should have been the starting 2B on opening day.

[Pioneer Dawg]

So, that's like a run every 3 games or so? That's almost a negligible amount.

I expect better than this from the baseball expert.

[MetEdDawg]

Making moves between triple A and the majors is entirely different and has significantly more factors in play than making day to day lineup changes.

And saying for certain that Cunningham is a better hitter than Upton right now when Cunningham has a .178 BA in 73 career major league Spring Training at bats over 4 years tells and 2 hits over 8 career at bats for the Braves during the regular season me all I need to know about your objectivity and knowledge on the situation. That's a joke at best.

[Pioneer Dawg]

So in his last 11 starts Tommy Milone is 6-0 with 8 quality starts and an ERA of 2.65... Just optioned to AAA by Billy Beane after the trade. THATS how you don't just stick with what's working now and THATS why the A's have the best chance to win the WS under Beane this year while the Braves will collapse. You people loving BJ leading off now will have to wait even longer to see him replaced when he goes back to normal BJ because "remember the streak with him leading off, let's see if that comes back" will keep him at lead off while he struggles.

[Dawg61]

You're eyes fool you, and people who use the eye test tend to see what they want to see, IMO.

The numbers do not lie. The number that correlates most strongly with runs scored is on base percentage, not how fast you can run when you are on base. The idea that the lead off hitter has to be a speed guy has been debunked by the numbers.

I haven't watched the Reds but maybe twenty games this year and Billy Hamilton has created more runs himself than I can count. Speed absolutely matters. A walk for him turns into a triple very quickly and it's no coincidence that Todd Frazier has suddenly become arguably the best 2 hole hitter in the NL. Frazier gets pumped fastballs so the catcher can have just a slight bit of chance to throw out Hamilton and Frazier ain't been missing many. I saw Hamilton tag up and score on a popup on the edge of the grass where the 2b plays. I had to watch it three times I couldn't believe what I just saw. Try to explain how speed doesn't matter when you are on base after watching this.

[KB21]

So in his last 11 starts Tommy Milone is 6-0 with 8 quality starts and an ERA of 2.65... Just optioned to AAA by Billy Beane after the trade. THATS how you don't just stick with what's working now and THATS why the A's have the best chance to win the WS under Beane this year while the Braves will collapse. You people loving BJ leading off now will have to wait even longer to see him replaced when he goes back to normal BJ because "remember the streak with him leading off, let's see if that comes back" will keep him at lead off while he struggles.

Unfortunately, this is likely what will happen. The Frediot will keep him there until the wheels fall off instead of making the proper move to prevent the wheels from falling off. It is just completely nonsensical to have BJ leading off and Tommy La Stella hitting 7th in the line up.

La Stella currently has a 0.7 WAR in 137 total plate appearances. BJ Upton has a 0.6 WAR in 200 more plate appearances.

[Dawg61]

So in his last 11 starts Tommy Milone is 6-0 with 8 quality starts and an ERA of 2.65... Just optioned to AAA by Billy Beane after the trade. THATS how you don't just stick with what's working now and THATS why the A's have the best chance to win the WS under Beane this year while the Braves will collapse. You people loving BJ leading off now will have to wait even longer to see him replaced when he goes back to normal BJ because "remember the streak with him leading off, let's see if that comes back" will keep him at lead off while he struggles.

A's going for it all this year after trading away their 2012 first round pick and 2013 first round pick. Russell is rated as high as the #3 overall prospect. I love the trade for the A's this year but a little confused by it when Samardijza wants to get his money cause the A's won't be giving him 160 million so they've basically given up two #1s for a shot to win the WS this year or next. Doubt they sign Hammel to an extension either but that might not matter. They look like the lead horse in the AL right now.

[MetEdDawg]

So in his last 11 starts Tommy Milone is 6-0 with 8 quality starts and an ERA of 2.65... Just optioned to AAA by Billy Beane after the trade. THATS how you don't just stick with what's working now and THATS why the A's have the best chance to win the WS under Beane this year while the Braves will collapse. You people loving BJ leading off now will have to wait even longer to see him replaced when he goes back to normal BJ because "remember the streak with him leading off, let's see if that comes back" will keep him at lead off while he struggles.

The problem folks like you aren't getting is that last year wasn't anywhere close to the normal BJ. This year is much closer to the normal BJ and it's still way below his norm. He's a career .245 hitter that scores in the mid 80s runs per year and can steal a lot of bases. Never high RBI, but does have a high strikeout rate which sucks. So he's still not where he should be.

What happens if he hits .235 this year which would still be his 2nd lowest BA of his career? He's at .214 right now. Is that impossible? Is it possible he's turned a corner? We keep him in the lineup and over the next 2 1/2 months he might could raise his BA 20 points? Means he's getting things done and will be averaging at least one hit a game. You do that in front of Simmons, Freeman, Upton, and Gattis and I think I will be ok with that.

Obviously this isn't going to continue at the pace it's going right now. But if BJ is able to cut his strikeouts down, shorten his swing, and be less reckless early in the count, he could do what I stated above. He's beginning to do some of that already and it's paying off. It's a wait and see thing, but I just understand some of you so opposed to us keeping BJ at lead off when it is clearly helping the team right now. As a baseball person, you should be able to see that what he is doing RIGHT NOW is helping the team score more runs.

[Pioneer Dawg]

Speed matters of course but not as much as on base in the lead off spot. More important than speed is actual base running ability. Adam Jones is known as a very good baserunner without racking up the SB that others do. SB% > number of bags stolen.. See Yasiel Puig