Don't look now Braves fans

[msstate7]

I hear ya but look who the last several series have been against .... not exactly running a gauntlet there. What is encouraging is the Braves being a second half team ... at least right up until a dozen games left in the reg season. I'm hopeful, but not sure if they are strong enough to go very deep into the playoffs. Also, I'm not sure if a wildcard will come from that division - gonna have to win it

The week before bj took over as leadoff the braves were 2-5 including getting swept by the phillies.

Has the schedule been favorable? Yes, but good teams take advantage of stretches like this. The braves are 9-1 in last 10 and 11-3 in last 14 -- this is good no matter the opponents.

[msstate7]

I just totally disagree with the philosophy that BJ Upton should hit 6th. To me that's absolutely nuts. The problem with the old school theory is that you would expect your 6 hole hitter to have a BA higher than .211 and a much higher OBP than what BJ has. In theory it makes sense, but how much are you going to increase his run scoring productivity in the 6 hole, which right now is what we need him to do? Also, with a .211 BA, how many extra RBI chances will he get with Freeman, Justin Upton, and maybe Gattis (when he comes back) or Chris Johnson in front of him? It's pretty hard to improve upon .8 runs scored per game, which is what he's averaging over his 10 game hitting streak. Extrapolate that over a season and he scores 130 runs a season. Have to roll with that.

Do you really think putting him in front of Chris Johnson and maybe a La Stella or Laird is better? Chris Johnson has a much higher strikeout rate in the 6 or 7 hole than Simmons in the 2 hole (almost 3:1 higher K rate). That's insanity to put BJ in front of that, even though I mentioned earlier he has a higher BA and a decent propensity to go oppo. To maximize BJ's on base scoring chances, you put him in front of a low strikeout/high rate of contact guy like Simmons in the 2 hole and a high BA guy like Freeman in the 3 hole. THAT'S how you maximize potential. The book is great when everything fits perfectly into a puzzle. But if you think we will maximize BJ Upton by putting him in a higher RBI spot in front of a Chris Johnson and Laird we may just have to agree to disagree.

La Stella has 2 SBs and cannot go 1st to 3rd like BJ can. It's an against the book situation that has to be treated that way. We need BJ to produce runs scored from the lead off spot. He's doing that at the present moment. If he continues to produces anywhere close to .8 runs a game from that slot he has to stay in the lead off spot.

Again, this is an odd situation and I know what the book says. Ideally BJ would hit 6th because he would be hitting .260 with a .330-.350 OBP with 15-20 SB and 60-80 RBI. Unfortunately he's not doing that right now and all data gathered during his time with the Braves says he would not do well in that spot. He's scoring runs and stealing bases, so we have to maximize our lineup to fit that. Put him in front of Simmons and Freeman and Justin Upton and there's a good chance he's gonna score when he gets on.

The 1st to 3rd argument is a strong one. I've also seen bj score on short flyballs. Bj's running ability is getting Simmons and ff fastballs too.

[MetEdDawg]

The 1st to 3rd argument is a strong one. I've also seen bj score on short flyballs. Bj's running ability is getting Simmons and ff fastballs too.

The bolded is the number 1 key here. When BJ gets on in the 6 or 7 hole, he gives higher % of fastballs to guys toward the end of the lineup with lower averages. If I want someone on my team getting a higher % of fastballs, it's my 2 and 3 hole hitter, not my 7 and 8 hole guys.

Add the higher RBI chances in the 6 hole with his lower BA and in my opinion you just really limit his effectiveness. .8 runs scored per game during his 10 game hitting streak is pretty impressive and it would be pretty hard to convince me to change his spot in the lineup while he's doing that.

[KB21]

I just totally disagree with the philosophy that BJ Upton should hit 6th. To me that's absolutely nuts. The problem with the old school theory is that you would expect your 6 hole hitter to have a BA higher than .211 and a much higher OBP than what BJ has. In theory it makes sense, but how much are you going to increase his run scoring productivity in the 6 hole, which right now is what we need him to do? Also, with a .211 BA, how many extra RBI chances will he get with Freeman, Justin Upton, and maybe Gattis (when he comes back) or Chris Johnson in front of him? It's pretty hard to improve upon .8 runs scored per game, which is what he's averaging over his 10 game hitting streak. Extrapolate that over a season and he scores 130 runs a season. Have to roll with that.

Do you really think putting him in front of Chris Johnson and maybe a La Stella or Laird is better? Chris Johnson has a much higher strikeout rate in the 6 or 7 hole than Simmons in the 2 hole (almost 3:1 higher K rate). That's insanity to put BJ in front of that, even though I mentioned earlier he has a higher BA and a decent propensity to go oppo. To maximize BJ's on base scoring chances, you put him in front of a low strikeout/high rate of contact guy like Simmons in the 2 hole and a high BA guy like Freeman in the 3 hole. THAT'S how you maximize potential. The book is great when everything fits perfectly into a puzzle. But if you think we will maximize BJ Upton by putting him in a higher RBI spot in front of a Chris Johnson and Laird we may just have to agree to disagree.

La Stella has 2 SBs and cannot go 1st to 3rd like BJ can. It's an against the book situation that has to be treated that way. We need BJ to produce runs scored from the lead off spot. He's doing that at the present moment. If he continues to produces anywhere close to .8 runs a game from that slot he has to stay in the lead off spot.

Again, this is an odd situation and I know what the book says. Ideally BJ would hit 6th because he would be hitting .260 with a .330-.350 OBP with 15-20 SB and 60-80 RBI. Unfortunately he's not doing that right now and all data gathered during his time with the Braves says he would not do well in that spot. He's scoring runs and stealing bases, so we have to maximize our lineup to fit that. Put him in front of Simmons and Freeman and Justin Upton and there's a good chance he's gonna score when he gets on.

The 6 hole is the only spot in the line up that makes sense for BJ. You put him in front of a singles hitter in Chris Johnson to maximize his speed on the bases. At the lead off spot, his lack of on base ability is going to catch up with the team. Right now, you are basing where you would hit him off a small sample size, and he still isn't ideal in that small sample size. Your lead off man has to get on base at a high clip. BJ has a .282 OBP. La Stella is .360. La Stella's ability to go from 1st to 3rd shouldn't even be a consideration, as the team's sluggers will be hitting behind him.

[MetEdDawg]

The 6 hole is the only spot in the line up that makes sense for BJ. You put him in front of a singles hitter in Chris Johnson to maximize his speed on the bases. At the lead off spot, his lack of on base ability is going to catch up with the team. Right now, you are basing where you would hit him off a small sample size, and he still isn't ideal in that small sample size. Your lead off man has to get on base at a high clip. BJ has a .282 OBP. La Stella is .360. La Stella's ability to go from 1st to 3rd shouldn't even be a consideration, as the team's sluggers will be hitting behind him.

I think we will have to agree to disagree. I understand what the sabermetrics say and I do not disagree that he should not be our permanent lead off hitter. But for right now he needs to be. I am not a fan of sabermetrics. I think there are times when it is good to use them, but I think they very often get us away from the eye test. The eye test says BJ Upton is scoring almost a run per game during his 10 game hitting streak, and he's doing from the spot in the lineup where run scoring is probably most important. It's not a coincidence we are scoring 5 runs a game during that time either.

He has a .211 BA and during his 10 game hitting streak has around a .250 BA with an OBP around .275. He's scored 8 runs during that time, stolen 3 bases, and has actually allowed us to increase the effectiveness of his skill set and has extended the effectiveness of our lineup.

The thing I think you are overlooking is that BJ's speed provides line up protection for Simmons and Freeman, the two guys on the team you really want to see fastballs because Simmons is low strikeout and Freeman is Freeman. Put La Stella there and sure maybe he gets on base more than BJ, but his lack of overall base stealing ability does not provide lineup protection for Simmons and Freeman. If he's not a liability to run, that means Simmons and Freeman are less likely to see fastballs. BJ in lead off and on base may give Simmons and Freeman each 1-4 fastballs more per game. That's a huge number when you figure in a game where you get 4 ABs you figure to see around 16-20 pitches. That's a 5 to 20% increase in fastballs seen. With La Stella in lead off you can almost pitch normally to Simmons and Freeman because he's not a threat to steal, so there really is no reason to adjust how you attack Simmons or Freeman at the plate.

[Pioneer Dawg]

I am not a fan of sabermetrics is pretty akin to I am not a fan of knowledge.

[msstate7]

I am not a fan of sabermetrics is pretty akin to I am not a fan of knowledge.

So, you would change the lineup right now despite an 8-game winning streak? If so, you're not a fan of just winning

[Pioneer Dawg]

So, you would change the lineup right now despite an 8-game winning streak? If so, you're not a fan of just winning

Is Upton leading off THE REASON they are winning. Remember who holds the modern win streak record....

[TheRef]

Is Upton leading off THE REASON they are winning. Remember who holds the modern win streak record....

How can you argue whether or not he IS the reason the Braves are leading? If the team's chemistry and mojo is working out for 8 games, why change that because the sabermetrics say that it won't work. Here's the thing, the team is comfortable. The team is winning. When that's the case, you keep going with what you have until you lose. At that point, you look at what you can change.

[msstate7]

Is Upton leading off THE REASON they are winning. Remember who holds the modern win streak record....

I'm not saying bj is the only reason, but he's certainly been important.

Yes, you're blasted a's hold the modern day win streak. I heard EOF finally came back yesterday. If he's fully healthy, you guys just got better in the pen

[Dawg61]

Pioneer has a different favorite team based on the standings that day. A's, Angels, Braves, Nationals, Dodgers, Astros, Marlins are all teams he's claimed to be a fan of and I'm probably forgetting a few. Tigers, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Cardinals?

[Todd4State]

Is Upton leading off THE REASON they are winning. Remember who holds the modern win streak record....

With no championships since 1989.

[msstate7]

Pioneer has a different favorite team based on the standings that day. A's, Angels, Braves, Nationals, Dodgers, Astros, Marlins are all teams he's claimed to be a fan of and I'm probably forgetting a few. Tigers, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Cardinals?

So you're saying pioneer is 5 games from becoming a braves' (48-38) fan instead of an a's (53-33)?

[msstate7]

With no championships since 1989.

Winning isn't as important as making sure you have the best lineup according to saber metrics

[Todd4State]

I think we will have to agree to disagree. I understand what the sabermetrics say and I do not disagree that he should not be our permanent lead off hitter. But for right now he needs to be. I am not a fan of sabermetrics. I think there are times when it is good to use them, but I think they very often get us away from the eye test. The eye test says BJ Upton is scoring almost a run per game during his 10 game hitting streak, and he's doing from the spot in the lineup where run scoring is probably most important. It's not a coincidence we are scoring 5 runs a game during that time either.

He has a .211 BA and during his 10 game hitting streak has around a .250 BA with an OBP around .275. He's scored 8 runs during that time, stolen 3 bases, and has actually allowed us to increase the effectiveness of his skill set and has extended the effectiveness of our lineup.

The thing I think you are overlooking is that BJ's speed provides line up protection for Simmons and Freeman, the two guys on the team you really want to see fastballs because Simmons is low strikeout and Freeman is Freeman. Put La Stella there and sure maybe he gets on base more than BJ, but his lack of overall base stealing ability does not provide lineup protection for Simmons and Freeman. If he's not a liability to run, that means Simmons and Freeman are less likely to see fastballs. BJ in lead off and on base may give Simmons and Freeman each 1-4 fastballs more per game. That's a huge number when you figure in a game where you get 4 ABs you figure to see around 16-20 pitches. That's a 5 to 20% increase in fastballs seen. With La Stella in lead off you can almost pitch normally to Simmons and Freeman because he's not a threat to steal, so there really is no reason to adjust how you attack Simmons or Freeman at the plate.

Hard to argue with this.

The thing about sabermetrics is a guy like Upton may actually be better in the lead off spot, but because he maybe hasn't been used there a lot, his numbers look bad and it makes it appear as if he shouldn't be where he actually should be in the lineup.

And even if sabermetrics is right about him, it's not like he has to stay hitting lead off the entire year. You just move him somewhere else. Not really that big of a deal.

[MetEdDawg]

I am not a fan of sabermetrics is pretty akin to I am not a fan of knowledge.

Yeah I can't believe baseball was ever played without sabermetrics. Since it's the be all end all as some think. How could managers ever do their job without BABIP or FIP or Pythagorean Expectation?

Give me a break. If you know anything about baseball, you can watch it without needing statistics in front of you to know what guys do or what tendencies they have. Right now you can watch BJ Upton get on base, get the guy behind him more FBs, and watch the Braves score more runs. Now is that the only reason why the Braves are scoring more runs right now? No. But saying it isn't a part or saying you should change things just because it won't work long term is dumb.

Baseball is full of ups and down where players peak, slump, get injured, etc. Some on here and many who play/watch/coach try to out think themselves because statistics say do this when this happens or make this change when this stat says this. How about what does common sense say do when your lead off guy, who has already shown he struggles in the 2 hole and the 6-8 hole, is averaging .8 runs per game in his last 10 games from the lead off spot?? It says keep his ass there.

Too many people try and sound smarter than they really are by spouting off some guys BABIP or some other bull shit stat to make their case. I would like to see someone make the case for why you would change what is working during an 8 game win streak? I'm not happy with how BJ has done for us overall since he got to Atlanta, but it's pretty damn hard to argue with what he's done lately. One hit per game may not seem like much, but when you score 80% of the time you get that one hit like he has during the last 10 games, common sense says keep it up until it runs dry. If it does, you find another solution like baseball managers have done since the game started. And you don't have to look at a guy's secondary average or his range score to do it.

[Todd4State]

Winning isn't as important as making sure you have the best lineup according to saber metrics

I know right? It's not always as cut and dried as what the stat sheet says.

The thing that people don't understand sometimes and see is what is going on behind the scenes with these players. All those little mechanical tweaks and things that these players work on with coaches- a manager is going to see and know that and that has some influence on the lineup as well. Sometimes a player that is struggling will make an adjustment and the manager will know about it, but the fans are like "what the hell is the manager doing? Look at the numbers!"- and then it somehow works out sometimes.

[MetEdDawg]

Hard to argue with this.

The thing about sabermetrics is a guy like Upton may actually be better in the lead off spot, but because he maybe hasn't been used there a lot, his numbers look bad and it makes it appear as if he shouldn't be where he actually should be in the lineup.

And even if sabermetrics is right about him, it's not like he has to stay hitting lead off the entire year. You just move him somewhere else. Not really that big of a deal.

Sweet Jesus thank you. People say "Oh God it won't work long term!! How stupid to keep him there!! Sabermetrics says it was stupid to begin with!! Once he cools off you will see what that team really is." Ummm, the manager makes a change. Like you said it's not that big of a deal. Fredi isn't afraid to make changes either, so I feel ok with the fact that if BJ goes 2 or 3 games without getting on base that he would make a change.

[TheRef]

Sweet Jesus thank you. People say "Oh God it won't work long term!! How stupid to keep him there!! Sabermetrics says it was stupid to begin with!! Once he cools off you will see what that team really is." Ummm, the manager makes a change. Like you said it's not that big of a deal. Fredi isn't afraid to make changes either, so I feel ok with the fact that if BJ goes 2 or 3 games without getting on base that he would make a change.

Exactly. BJ most likely won't be leading off all season, but by God why would you take him out of the leadoff slot now when we have been winning with him there?

[MetEdDawg]

Can't believe we haven't dropped BJ in the line up yet. Freaking lead off triples are highly unacceptable......

11 game hitting streak now and now 9 runs scored in his last 11 games.