Tuesday Severe Weather Thread

[TheRef]

Okay guys...we have had two days of absolute Hell down here in the South. Sad thing is, we're not done yet. Here is what SPC has out for their Day 1 Convective Outlook.



As you can see, this polygon DOES include Starkville, MS and most of East-Central MS. This line of storms that will develop in the afternoon will interact with a mid-level jet (between 700 and 500 mb) to produce some really strong uplift. Add in CAPE values around 2000-2500 J/kg and you have instability that you need. The only thing that's limiting me on the tornado threat is the Southwesterly flow at the surface. This all is associated with a decaying MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) that has been the driving force for all of our severe weather lately. But as we progress from afternoon into evening, the strong supercell threat will decrease and this will turn more into a linear system, or a QLCS (Quasi-linear convective system). But once again, this thing is still not something we want to mess with today. We've seen what it can do in the right circumstance. This isn't the GREATEST setup in the world but I believe it can still produce some fairly strong tornadoes and if it doesn't produce a tornado near you then you still have a straight-line wind and hail threat that you'll have to watch out for. I will be out of pocket between 3:30 and around 4:45 today due to class. I know y'all will keep this thing running for me while I'm gone. If y'all have any questions/concerns please feel free to ask.

[#660000]

NM

[Barking 13]

Dang Ref, class at prime time.....

[TheRef]

Not seeing any details - only cities.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/out...mgs/cities.gif

changed it....once I posted it I saw that it wasn't showing the outlook. Should see it now.

[TheRef]

Dang Ref, class at prime time.....

I know...it stinks. But a student has to do what a student has to do.

[TheRef]

And this is NOT what you want to see before a severe weather event. Clear skies = sunlight = more instability = worse severe weather.

[RossDawg82]

looks filthy

[DownwardDawg]

Petal schools are dismissing. Lamar county and Sacred Heart in H'burg dismissing. So far PCS isn't but my kid is being picked up pretty soon.

[slickdawg]

Yeah, sunny skies are really a bad thing right now - heat increases instability.

[TheRef]

Once this thing fires up, don't be surprised to see it take the same amount of time to develop its stronger storms. This thing will be pretty bad once it starts up.

[DownwardDawg]

PCS just announced early dismissal. Looks like the schools are taking this serious.

[TheRef]

PCS just announced early dismissal. Looks like the schools are taking this serious.

As they should. PCS area is within the 15% hatched tornado threat area.

[slickdawg]

Yesterday, the storms started initiation in Northeast LA. Today I think they will start roughly in the I-55 corridor.

[TheRef]

Yesterday, the storms started initiation in Northeast LA. Today I think they will start roughly in the I-55 corridor.

Agreed...maybe a little bit near the NO area also for the Southern extent.

[starkvegasdawg]

I chased Sunday and Monday but think I may take today off unless they are very near Starkville. Didn't get in until 5:00am after the Arkansas tornado Sunday and then just a couple hours of sleep before going yesterday. No sleep and near $4 diesel can be a limiting factor. Plus my employer doesn't believe in unlimited vacation for some strange reason.

[TheRef]

I chased Sunday and Monday but think I may take today off unless they are very near Starkville. Didn't get in until 5:00am after the Arkansas tornado Sunday and then just a couple hours of sleep before going yesterday. No sleep and near $4 diesel can be a limiting factor. Plus my employer doesn't believe in unlimited vacation for some strange reason.

Where all did you chase yesterday? And sorry for not responding to your texts yesterday as often as I usually do. I was the driver yesterday and we were pretty close to the Carthage and Louisville tornadoes.

[It_Could_Happen]

Ref, I just want to make sure I am reading this right. Is starkville in the high threat area?

[TheRef]

Ref, I just want to make sure I am reading this right. Is starkville in the high threat area?

Starkville is on the edge of the Moderate risk area, yes. Even if we were in the slight risk area, however, I would advise that you still treat this as a potentially dangerous situation. Keep a reliable source of info nearby in case something does happen.

[LC Dawg]

Thanks for all the info. Looks like another long day.

[TheRef]

Here is what NWS Jackson, MS is thinking for timing and risk areas for this storm.