Football expectations

[starkvegasdawg]

I was in the "this could be a 3 win season or a 6 win season" and now I'm in the "this could be a "5 win season or a 7 win season" bucket. So yeah... I was budged slightly north. We look much improved.

I actually think Huff did a good job with USM. We're just bigger faster stronger than them.

I want to see us against a team where we aren't bigger, faster, and stronger before I start looking at bowl projections. Having a decided advantage in all of those categories will mask a lot of talent and coaching issues. Even those out and then I want to see how we look. We beat AZ State then I'll say 6-6 is possible.

[Pancho]

I see no way to 6 wins unless AZ State is one of the wins.

[Todd4State]

I want to see us against a team where we aren't bigger, faster, and stronger before I start looking at bowl projections. Having a decided advantage in all of those categories will mask a lot of talent and coaching issues. Even those out and then I want to see how we look. We beat AZ State then I'll say 6-6 is possible.

USM is a lot closer to the Marshall team that was really good last year than they are the USM team of last year. Plus they have a lot of our castoffs like Pittman. I know they are our castoffs but they're still guys with SEC experience.

[bulldawg28]

USM is a lot closer to the Marshall team that was really good last year than they are the USM team of last year. Plus they have a lot of our castoffs like Pittman. I know they are our castoffs but they're still guys with SEC experience.

Exactly, there were 21 transfers from the Marshall team that won the conference championship the year prior. That included the starting Qb

[StarkVegasSteve]

Exactly, there were 21 transfers from the Marshall team that won the conference championship the year prior. That included the starting Qb

But that Marshall team got dirtrolled by any P4 team they played. We can admit that we have improved but still have question marks. Because make no mistake, that team beats us last year. Braxton would've ran for 100+ yards

[bulldawg28]

But that Marshall team got dirtrolled by any P4 team they played. We can admit that we have improved but still have question marks. Because make no mistake, that team beats us last year. Braxton would've ran for 100+ yards

You could tell the coaches held back. However, I'm not saying we're Ohio state good. We're a bowl team if we keep fighting.

[Tater]

ASU is the third highest ranked team on our schedule. If they're truly in play - then so are at least 9 others.

I'm not saying if we win this weekend we'll be 10-2. I'm just pointing out the level of perceived competition we have.

6-10. What are you drinking. This team has zero shot to win 8 games. Much less 10

We have a less than zero shot at 10 wins. If we beat ASU, it almost certainly means they are worse than last year and worse than their ranking.

Jesus christ, it's like you saw the sign, said nope i'm not gonna read it, and said the stupid line anyway.

At least smoot tried to reason against it. So counterpoint. Maybe Texsa, Tenn, Ark, UF, OM, Aggy, Mizz are all worse than last year as well. If ASU can get worse so can these guys. Texsa already showed it. Mizz lost their QB.

But I'm saying if you think we can beat a team perceived as top 12, then you think we could beat a team perceived as top 20. If you think we can win this weekend, then you think any game up to 12th rank is in play. Are we gonna win 10? no. But There are 10 winnable games on the schedule if ASU is winnable. So the range of winnable games if we win this weekend goes from 3-6 to 6-10.

[Pancho]

play 4 qtrs and win the game

[smootness]

Jesus christ, it's like you saw the sign, said nope i'm not gonna read it, and said the stupid line anyway.

At least smoot tried to reason against it. So counterpoint. Maybe Texsa, Tenn, Ark, UF, OM, Aggy, Mizz are all worse than last year as well. If ASU can get worse so can these guys. Texsa already showed it. Mizz lost their QB.

But I'm saying if you think we can beat a team perceived as top 12, then you think we could beat a team perceived as top 20. If you think we can win this weekend, then you think any game up to 12th rank is in play. Are we gonna win 10? no. But There are 10 winnable games on the schedule if ASU is winnable. So the range of winnable games if we win this weekend goes from 3-6 to 6-10.

And I disagree with you. Obviously any game can technically be winnable. But the chances of us winning all our winnable games is essentially 0. And the likelihood of us winning more than 6 is pretty darn close to 0, unless several teams on our schedule are way worse than anyone thinks.

You are assuming ASU is where they should be ranked. If they end up being worse, it does not mean all the teams ranked below them are similarly worse. It just means they are.

We do not know everything about this team. But we know enough to know we are not winning more than, say, 7 in an absolute miracle year. And the chances of winning more than 5 are extremely low.

[Bothrops]

If we lose this weekend my expectation will be about 3-9.

[EdwardDrayton]

Right now, this weekend is only about 3-9 or 4-8. But everything about this game could alter our current perception about how well we do the rest of the season.

[Todd4State]

Right now, this weekend is only about 3-9 or 4-8. But everything about this game could alter our current perception about how well we do the rest of the season.

A win over Arizona State would build a lot of confidence for the players and it could springboard them to more upsets. A good example from the past is our win over Alabama in 1996. That win kind of came out of nowhere and a lot of people thought Bobby Wallace was about to be our head coach before that game. That win really was the one that started our run in the late 1990's and into 2000. That team was going nowhere before that and only really looked impressive against Memphis (State) and Northeast Louisiana (ULM) before that game. And a win is what we badly need right now. Could say the same about the 2009 Egg Bowl and Arkansas and the 2013 Egg Bowl as well. Texas 1991 too.

[Bothrops]

Anybody who says this isn't a must win isn't a Mississippi State fan.

[Tater]

And I disagree with you. Obviously any game can technically be winnable. But the chances of us winning all our winnable games is essentially 0. And the likelihood of us winning more than 6 is pretty darn close to 0, unless several teams on our schedule are way worse than anyone thinks.

You are assuming ASU is where they should be ranked. If they end up being worse, it does not mean all the teams ranked below them are similarly worse. It just means they are.

We do not know everything about this team. But we know enough to know we are not winning more than, say, 7 in an absolute miracle year. And the chances of winning more than 5 are extremely low.

I mean Vegas says we have about a 33% chance of winning this weekend. Let's just say that every team other than tu and Georgia have around the same odds (besides NIU and Alcorn). Even if I say those two other games are 100%, saying all 7 games are as winnable as ASU is me saying we'd have a 0.04% chance (1 in 2500) of winning 10 games. It's not ****in likely but it's a mathematical possibility. If we win this weekend then we're better than most of us think and the range is 6-10 wins.

But to sum it up - you're correcting me saying I'm wrong for saying that if we win a game I don't expect us to win then we're so much better that we have a 1 in 2500 chance of winning 10 games instead of what I currently think which is none. Just so you're very clear that is the position you're arguing against. You're saying I'm wrong for saying that.

[smootness]

I mean Vegas says we have about a 33% chance of winning this weekend. Let's just say that every team other than tu and Georgia have around the same odds (besides NIU and Alcorn). Even if I say those two other games are 100%, saying all 7 games are as winnable as ASU is me saying we'd have a 0.04% chance (1 in 2500) of winning 10 games. It's not ****in likely but it's a mathematical possibility. If we win this weekend then we're better than most of us think and the range is 6-10 wins.

But to sum it up - you're correcting me saying I'm wrong for saying that if we win a game I don't expect us to win then we're so much better that we have a 1 in 2500 chance of winning 10 games instead of what I currently think which is none. Just so you're very clear that is the position you're arguing against. You're saying I'm wrong for saying that.

I am saying your logic is wrong. You are saying if we beat a team perceived to be 12, then we can beat a team perceived to be 20. It does not work that way. Just because ASU is 12 now means nothing, they may stink. And the team ranked 20 now may be great. Beating ASU in game #2 does not mean we can now win 10 games in any universe.

[smootness]

A win over Arizona State would build a lot of confidence for the players and it could springboard them to more upsets. A good example from the past is our win over Alabama in 1996. That win kind of came out of nowhere and a lot of people thought Bobby Wallace was about to be our head coach before that game. That win really was the one that started our run in the late 1990's and into 2000. That team was going nowhere before that and only really looked impressive against Memphis (State) and Northeast Louisiana (ULM) before that game. And a win is what we badly need right now. Could say the same about the 2009 Egg Bowl and Arkansas and the 2013 Egg Bowl as well. Texas 1991 too.

? That win came in game #9, and we lost the next week to a bad Arkansas team. We then beat an equally meh Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl and went 5-6. I am not sure how that game compares to ASU, even if we win it. Unless your point is that an ASU win may still mean we win 4-5 games.

[Todd4State]

? That win came in game #9, and we lost the next week to a bad Arkansas team. We then beat an equally meh Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl and went 5-6. I am not sure how that game compares to ASU, even if we win it. Unless your point is that an ASU win may still mean we win 4-5 games.

It's not just about this season. It's about the seasons after. Our players used that experience and win to help them win a lot of big games after that win in 1996. Like Auburn and Alabama in 1997. And then the multiple big wins in 1998-2000.

Right now our players have nothing to build off of experience wise because the last big win we have had was in 2022.

A win over Arizona State doesn't mean we have turned the corner or are going bowling. But if we win it it's a game our players can look back on and use the experience and confidence from that game to maybe pull off an upset or two this year and then beyond when the schedule is hopefully easier.

And we do have a few SEC games that are in play as far as upsets go. Whether we pull off one or not remains to be seen.

[Tater]

I am saying your logic is wrong. You are saying if we beat a team perceived to be 12, then we can beat a team perceived to be 20. It does not work that way. Just because ASU is 12 now means nothing, they may stink. And the team ranked 20 now may be great. Beating ASU in game #2 does not mean we can now win 10 games in any universe.

When MSU beats someone highly ranked - that team shouldn't have been highly ranked. It's never credit to MSU. That's just MSU fan mentality. Exhausting.

Why is it so inconceivable that rather than being wrong about ASU's place, we're actually wrong about MSU's place?

[smootness]

It's not just about this season. It's about the seasons after. Our players used that experience and win to help them win a lot of big games after that win in 1996. Like Auburn and Alabama in 1997. And then the multiple big wins in 1998-2000.

Right now our players have nothing to build off of experience wise because the last big win we have had was in 2022.

A win over Arizona State doesn't mean we have turned the corner or are going bowling. But if we win it it's a game our players can look back on and use the experience and confidence from that game to maybe pull off an upset or two this year and then beyond when the schedule is hopefully easier.

And we do have a few SEC games that are in play as far as upsets go. Whether we pull off one or not remains to be seen.

That is fine, but most of this discussion has been about what it means for this year.

[smootness]

When MSU beats someone highly ranked - that team shouldn't have been highly ranked. It's never credit to MSU. That's just MSU fan mentality. Exhausting.

Why is it so inconceivable that rather than being wrong about ASU's place, we're actually wrong about MSU's place?

Obviously us beating them does not then determine alone that they are overrated. But we know enough about this team and its talent level, and the possibility that already exists that ASU is ranked too high, that if we beat them that seems fairly likely to be true.

But regardless, again my issue was in the logic. IF they do not end up being as good as the #12 team and we also beat them, it still says absolutely nothing about any other team on our schedule and how good they may or may not be.