Our path to a Regional...

[Cooterpoot]

Our best path to a regional is with a new staff next season

[Quaoarsking]

Our best path is to fire Lemonis tomorrow, be a little better with the interim and sneak into a Regional as a 3 this year, and then dominate next year with a new coach.

[parabrave]

Our only path is tow get to the tourney championship game.

[Todd4State]

What would losing a game to Mizzou do to our RPI? It feels like we need to sweep them along with getting to 13 at a minimum.

A loss to them- assuming we take of business the rest of the time which is a big assumption- would be devastating to our RPI. Probably enough to warrant keeping MSU out.

[Todd4State]

If we are 10-17 going into the Missouri series and sweep Missouri to drop them to 0-30, I don't think the committee is going to put much respect into that resulting 13-17 record.

I don't either. Our other problem is Auburn is really the only other top 20 RPI team we play so we really don't have a lot of opportunities to make a jump.

I'm not sure that 14 would get us in either to be honest. Will probably depend on how we do in the SEC Tournament.

[Coach34]

13 SEC wins and we are in a Regional. This isn’t hard.

Can we get to 13? I don’t know

[Quaoarsking]

13 SEC wins and we are in a Regional. This isn’t hard.

Can we get to 13? I don’t know

It is hard. Looking over the last decade, 13-17 teams only make it about half the time, and when they do, they usually have better RPIs than we do.

[Coach34]

It is hard. Looking over the last decade, 13-17 teams only make it about half the time, and when they do, they usually have better RPIs than we do.

It’s a new Era with conference realignment not to mention all 5 teams with 13 SEC wins made it last year. 13 and we’re in

[Quaoarsking]

It’s a new Era with conference realignment not to mention all 5 teams with 13 SEC wins made it last year. 13 and we’re in

Last year all 5 13-17 SEC teams had RPIs in the top 30. They didn't get picked solely because of their records, they got picked because of their entire resumes. Our RPI and entire resume won't be nearly as good if we get only finish 13-17.

Am I saying we definitely won't make it we're 13-17? No, I think we could sneak in depending on how soft the bubble is, but I kinda doubt we would. At the very least, there's no reason at all to insist that we will. The committee arbitrarily picks different criteria to matter more or matter less every year. It's impossible to ever be super confident about any bubble team.

[HoopsDawg]

It’s a new Era with conference realignment not to mention all 5 teams with 13 SEC wins made it last year. 13 and we’re in

13 wins won't do it if 3 of those are vs Missouri

[Coach34]

13 wins and we are in. Book it

[sandjunky]

13 wins and we are in. Book it

Not with MU having to be 3 of those especially if they are 0-27 going into series

Book it

[Quaoarsking]

13 wins won't do it if 3 of those are vs Missouri

Paradoxically, 13 wins won't do it if we lose 1 or more games to Missouri either

[Todd4State]

Last year all 5 13-17 SEC teams had RPIs in the top 30. They didn't get picked solely because of their records, they got picked because of their entire resumes. Our RPI and entire resume won't be nearly as good if we get only finish 13-17.

Am I saying we definitely won't make it we're 13-17? No, I think we could sneak in depending on how soft the bubble is, but I kinda doubt we would. At the very least, there's no reason at all to insist that we will. The committee arbitrarily picks different criteria to matter more or matter less every year. It's impossible to ever be super confident about any bubble team.

This. And our problem right now is RPI. Conference expansion probably hurts us in this instance because usually the last week of the season we're playing a team with a RPI of 30 or higher. Mizzou's RPI is 153 as I type this.

So it's a double edged sword because yeah losing kills you but winning doesn't really help us much either.

We really need to get hot this week because Auburn's RPI is 4. If we win a couple of games and the Governor's Cup we could make a jump and easily get in the 30's maybe low 20's. And I may be a bit conservative there in that estimate.

[Coach34]

Sit back and watch

Getting to 13 is the biggest obstacle

[Coach34]

People were saying 6-12 Texas wasnt going to make the NCAA Tourney in basketball- yet they did. Baseball will follow the same path

[Quaoarsking]

People were saying 6-12 Texas wasnt going to make the NCAA Tourney in basketball- yet they did. Baseball will follow the same path

The same path?? You're not even making a parallel argument! Put a little more effort into your posts!

Texas basketball was a different path. You would cite them as an example if you were arguing that we could still get selected this year at 12-18 (or 10-20 if you want to line up the percentages exactly). Texas had a decent enough NET but a bad conference record.

What you should be saying is "A lot of people thought Vanderbilt (NET 48) wouldn't make it in basketball, but I knew they would because 8-10 has generally been good enough lately" - that's what fits what you're trying to argue.

You know we've all hit rock bottom when I have to correct people's arguments against my own points here...

[Cooterpoot]

Lemonis has a better chance of getting in after 13 drinks at Rick's than with 13 wins in conference, because our schedule sucked. We got gifted a good schedule and blew it.

[Todd4State]

Sit back and watch

Getting to 13 is the biggest obstacle

If our RPI ends up in the 30's- then yeah.

Really depends on the combination of the 13 wins. Like 13 wins with a sweep of Mizzou probably gets us in but if we lose a game to Mizzou then probably not.

We have RPI 4, RPI 22 for four games, RPI 30, and RPI 153 left in conference play. Other than the Governor's Cup our OOC opponents RPI is really bad so we are essentially playing Mizzou 5 x. Right now we're at 43 in RPI.

In other words again- IF we're going to make a move it HAS TO BE now. And we also have no margin for error for a "that's baseball" game against Mizzou, Memphis, or North Alabama.

[somebodyshotmypaw]

Sit back and watch

Getting to 13 is the biggest obstacle

What if we win 13 conference games, but lose all remaining non-conference games and our first game in the SEC tourney?