UPig Game 3 Thread

[I seen it dawg]

Taking every time with a 3-2 count is the right call because you could get a walk. Sometimes they throw a strike but its still the right CALL*

It's only a 50% chance you get a walk if you take. It's either a ball or a strike. Not applicable to the ass kicking you are taking.

[Will James]

It's only a 50% chance you get a walk if you take. It's either a ball or a strike. Not applicable to the ass kicking you are taking.

Still looking for your proof

[Bully13]

I'm now convinced of 2 things...you've never played real baseball and you are 13

taking everytime you have 3-2? you've lost me on that one will

[Will James]

taking everytime you have 3-2? you've lost me on that one will

It was ***

[I seen it dawg]

Still looking for your proof

The 2 things in this thread we disagreed on I explained ad nauseum. Go back and read them you twerp. You have refuted one of them only with a chart which reinforced my point!

[Will James]

The 2 things in this thread we disagreed on I explained ad nauseum. Go back and read them you twerp. You have refuted one of them only with a chart which reinforced my point!

Opinions are not proof

[I seen it dawg]

You threw out a chart which incorrectly explains your position. I've explained mine which is correct. I'm done arguing with you because you can't begin to understand how the game of baseball is played.

[Homedawg]

Bunters are much worse in college.

Pitchers are doing half the bunting or more.
Eta, meaning in pro ball.

[Will James]

Pitchers are doing half the bunting or more.
Eta, meaning in pro ball.

I collected data from between 2008-2013. I classified things simply: a good bunt is a fair ball in play, and a bad bunt is a foul bunt or a missed bunt. Of course, not all fair bunts are good bunts. Of course, this misses out on bunts that were pulled back at the last second. This tracks only bunts that were committed to. Over the six years, there’s a sample of more than 36,000.
The breakdown:

• Overall: 49.7% fair bunts
• Pitchers: 49.9%
• Non-Pitchers: 49.6%

The sample for pitchers is about 10,000. The sample for non-pitchers is about 26,000. There’s basically no difference. About half the time they’ve committed to a bunt, they’ve bunted the ball in play. That means that, half the time, they’ve messed up.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-truth-about-bunting/

[bgdog]

Honest question, why do people still try to argue with WJ? He has never ever conceded a point, admitted a mistake, acknowledged he was wrong. When people argue with him he just becomes way more entrenched in his point of view, resorts to name calling, etc. All that happens is that smug, self-satisfied child makes a thread unbearable.

So why argue?

[Will James]

acknowledged he was wrong.

FIP isn't as important in college as I thought

[Homedawg]

I collected data from between 2008-2013. I classified things simply: a good bunt is a fair ball in play, and a bad bunt is a foul bunt or a missed bunt. Of course, not all fair bunts are good bunts. Of course, this misses out on bunts that were pulled back at the last second. This tracks only bunts that were committed to. Over the six years, there’s a sample of more than 36,000.
The breakdown:

• Overall: 49.7% fair bunts
• Pitchers: 49.9%
• Non-Pitchers: 49.6%

The sample for pitchers is about 10,000. The sample for non-pitchers is about 26,000. There’s basically no difference. About half the time they’ve committed to a bunt, they’ve bunted the ball in play. That means that, half the time, they’ve messed up.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-truth-about-bunting/

Clarification from you, bc not reading all that link crap, so included in the numbers is if one guy bunts and fouls it back or takes it, and then the next pitch he successfully gets it down then he's 50%? Am I reading that correct.

[Will James]

Clarification from you, bc not reading all that link crap, so included in the numbers is if one guy bunts and fouls it back or takes it, and then the next pitch he successfully gets it down then he's 50%? Am I reading that correct.

If you pull back and take it is NOT included. Foul bunts are "bad"

So only 50% are in fair territory. As was noted, not even all fair bunts result in the positive play. Say you pop a bunt up to the pitcher or bunt it hard right at the pitcher, etc., its part of the 50% good but obviously ends with bad results.

[Homedawg]

So a foul bunt or a missed bunt give a you this 50% number of bunts fail? Why not try pulling up how many guys went to the plate and sacrificed? No matter how many pitches it took? The 50% number u are using is skewed. It's like saying a hitter fouls off two pitches and then gets a hit and he's hitting .333 for that at bat. He's not he was 1.000 for that particular ab.

[Homedawg]

To add if he fouls it off and it's caught, I get it that's a poor bunt and should be an unsuccessful attempt. But not for strictly fouling it off. I knew there was a catch no way 50% of all sac bunts resulted in outs or didn't advance the runner. I actually like the stats u brought to the table, but they are not showing the whole picture. Plus one size doesn't fit all. Who is on deck! Who is pitching? Who is running? Lots of factors that a computer doesn't tell u.

[I seen it dawg]

I collected data from between 2008-2013. I classified things simply: a good bunt is a fair ball in play, and a bad bunt is a foul bunt or a missed bunt. Of course, not all fair bunts are good bunts. Of course, this misses out on bunts that were pulled back at the last second. This tracks only bunts that were committed to. Over the six years, there’s a sample of more than 36,000.
The breakdown:

• Overall: 49.7% fair bunts
• Pitchers: 49.9%
• Non-Pitchers: 49.6%

The sample for pitchers is about 10,000. The sample for non-pitchers is about 26,000. There’s basically no difference. About half the time they’ve committed to a bunt, they’ve bunted the ball in play. That means that, half the time, they’ve messed up.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-truth-about-bunting/

And none of this has anything to do with the argument. You are trying to turn it in another direction because you got your ass kicked in the relevant argument and you've got nothing because you don't understand the game of baseball.

[Will James]

And none of this has anything to do with the argument. You are trying to turn it in another direction because you got your ass kicked in the relevant argument and you've got nothing because you don't understand the game of baseball.

Quickly review the specific point that you are right and I am wrong again. Just saying something over and over doesn't make it true.

Your correctness is based on a successful bunt. We know that the odds of a successful bunt do not come close to justifying the action based on the expected run table. Those are the facts. We are talking about the BEST PERCENTAGE PLAY and the numbers back me up every time.

[I seen it dawg]

You win. And bgdog is right...can't have a discussion with you because you are never wrong. And I'm fine with that because I wasn't convinced before but I damn sure am now...you don't know jackshit about how the game is really played. You are beneath arguing with on the finer points of baseball. Keep spitting useless graphs and shit and leave the baseball discussions to people that have a clue. Great job at updating the game thread so stick to that, you have truly found your usefulness to this board.

[Will James]

You win. And bgdog is right...can't have a discussion with you because you are never wrong. And I'm fine with that because I wasn't convinced before but I damn sure am now...you don't know jackshit about how the game is really played. You are beneath arguing with on the finer points of baseball. Keep spitting useless graphs and shit and leave the baseball discussions to people that have a clue. Great job at updating the game thread so stick to that, you have truly found your usefulness to this board.

Yeah I didn't think you could either

[MarketingBully01]

You win. And bgdog is right...can't have a discussion with you because you are never wrong. And I'm fine with that because I wasn't convinced before but I damn sure am now...you don't know jackshit about how the game is really played. You are beneath arguing with on the finer points of baseball. Keep spitting useless graphs and shit and leave the baseball discussions to people that have a clue. Great job at updating the game thread so stick to that, you have truly found your usefulness to this board.

I should save this post and we can post it anytime anyone disagrees with Will James.