NCAA Baseball Transfer Portal

[Saltydog]

We don't necessarily need another SS. We're good there between Mershon and possibly Kupp, assuming Larry comes back.

[Quaoarsking]

Q knows all this he is just being obtuse. 25% less walks would lower our ERA a good chunk- which obviously would have led to more wins. This isn’t rocket surgery

There is a massive difference in saying "we probably would have won some more games if we'd cut down on the walks" and putting a definite number like "5 more wins" on it. The first is probably true, the second appears to just be pulled out of your ass. Again, I'm not even saying it's too high - maybe we would've gotten more than 5. I just don't like it when people pull numbers out of thin air and try to pass it off like a mathematical analysis. Stay qualitative only unless you're showing your work.

On top of that, your assertion is vague. Are you saying that we win 5 more if 25% of our walks turn into strikeouts, or just that 25% of them aren't walks and become a mixture of hits and outs of all types?

[bigbub50]

There is a massive difference in saying "we probably would have won some more games if we'd cut down on the walks" and putting a definite number like "5 more wins" on it. The first is probably true, the second appears to just be pulled out of your ass. Again, I'm not even saying it's too high - maybe we would've gotten more than 5. I just don't like it when people pull numbers out of thin air and try to pass it off like a mathematical analysis. Stay qualitative only unless you're showing your work.

On top of that, your assertion is vague. Are you saying that we win 5 more if 25% of our walks turn into strikeouts, or just that 25% of them aren't walks and become a mixture of hits and outs of all types?

Im guessing math and/or science was your favorite subject growing up??

[The Federalist Engineer]

There is a massive difference in saying "we probably would have won some more games if we'd cut down on the walks" and putting a definite number like "5 more wins" on it. The first is probably true, the second appears to just be pulled out of your ass. Again, I'm not even saying it's too high - maybe we would've gotten more than 5. I just don't like it when people pull numbers out of thin air and try to pass it off like a mathematical analysis. Stay qualitative only unless you're showing your work.

On top of that, your assertion is vague. Are you saying that we win 5 more if 25% of our walks turn into strikeouts, or just that 25% of them aren't walks and become a mixture of hits and outs of all types?

If you walk six per 9 innings and people hit 215 against you, you probably throw 6 innings and give up 2 or 3 runs per outing. Like a Cole Gordon, you can still have a nice career.

If you walk six per 9 innings and people hit 350 against you, then you are Enema, and you implode within an inning.

It's the WhIP equation that influences the total impact.

[TALL DAWG]

How about we lower our ERRORS while we are at it. That should be good for what 2-3 more conf wins. And, I pulled this from between my ears not my ass. 🤣

[Cooterpoot]

How about we lower our ERRORS while we are at it. That should be good for what 2-3 more conf wins. And, I pulled this from between my ears not my ass. ��

We eliminated a huge number of errors with two players gone. That's already been handled.

[Cowbell]

How about we lower our ERRORS while we are at it. That should be good for what 2-3 more conf wins. And, I pulled this from between my ears not my ass. 🤣

Errors magically decrease with less free passes as well

[CaptainObvious]

Errors compound free passes if they could have led to DPs or even just force outs. But even with all those errors, earned run averages were atrocious, especially in SEC play. Look at runs allowed per game instead of just ERA. Probably nearly another 1/2 run per game allowed. Not all our loses weee by 10 runs. We had several 1 run and 2 run losses. Eliminate errors and walks and there is your statistical proof. Unless or course you want to cut our opponents errors and walks out too. Then it is a wash.

[BigDawg81]

What?s the latest on Montgomery? Steve put an update up on the 247 board a few hours ago.

[Really Clark?]

Any insider info on where Montgomery stands?

I wouldn't trade our position with any other school right now.

[BeardoMSU]

I wouldn't trade our position with any other school right now.

Noice

[Commercecomet24]

I wouldn't trade our position with any other school right now.

This. Getting close to closing this one.

[the_real_MSU_is_us]

I've been very negative and will give my honest opinion and "show my work", if you will:

Defense: No doubt we improve at 3B because the Transfer has good stats. But SS? There's nothing to say Cupp will start or can play D in the SEC. He's highly rated but that's off potential, not day 1 polished abilities. Mershon was pretty bad at SS last year, will probably only be marginally better. Highfill got better as the year went on and will be better than last year's stats imply. Hines needs to work on his glove; there's a reason we kept putting Hancock over there. OF is pretty easy to play and I doubt we have much dropoff or improvement there. My bet overall: we go from an F to a C-. From 14th to say, 10th, give or take.

Offense: The 3B transfer is better than Alford for sure, but not a stud. Hit .300 vs much worse pitching than the SEC, lets be generous and say he hits .290 here. Lets assume marginal improvement for the returners: Highfill, Hines, Jordan, Mershon, Larry. The big losses are Clark (our best hitter in SEC play) and Ledbetter. I do NOT buy for one second that Hujesak -who was not a good hitter before State and hit .227 last year- will be able to replace either of those guys. Even assuming a 50 point jump and he's a downgrade. At the other OF spot, it's undeniable it's a "big Portal transfer or bust" situation. We either loose 40 points of hitting at that spot or we improve it by 10 if we get Montgomery. My Bet overall: We go from a C (9th in the SEC in scoring) to either a C+ (8th-7th) or a B (6th-5th) depending on transfers.

Pitching: Last year we sucked. We lost our 7 most reliable innings a weekend (Cade and Hunt), and we were about 10 innings short of pitching in the first place. So, 17 innings of pitching - 7 = 10 innings of solid arms returning between Dohm and Nixons 5 innings a weekend and Tappers 1 (if we're being generous to Tapper), and 4 total solid innings combined from Loo, Holcombe, Davis, Hardin, Siary a weekened. If your ERA is over 7, YOU ARE NOT PROVIDING SOLID INNINGS! Do these guys have the ability to turn into contributors? YES! But were they last year? NO! Yes they occasionally got through a clean inning, but more often they got shelled. To help us next year they have to be able to at least reliably give you something before getting shelled.

So, first up the returning solid guys (Dohm and Nixon and Tapper). Lets say they get a little better and are able to give us an extra inning each, 9 total. Next, we have the injured guys we get back: Loftin, Auger, and SImmons. Hard to judge. 2 haven't pitched in a while and the 3rd we've never seen vs SEC hitters. Lets say 2/3 turn out solid, 1 gives us 4 innings a weekend as a Sunday starter, the other 2 in relief. Not counting Pico Kohn because it sounds like his timetable is too late. That's 6 innings, we're up to 15. Then, the transfers: the Miami guys looks like he can give us 6 decent (ERA of 5ish) innings a weekend. Montgomery is touted as a 2 way player but he pitched 12 innings last year with an ERA of 15- he'd be irrelevant. Up to 21. We REALLY need Holman to join this group. For the most controversial group, the unreliable returners: Loo, Holcombe, Siary, Davis, Forsythe, Hardin. Siary had the best ERA of 7.07. DO these guys have talent? Yes. Did we upgrade at PC? 100% yes. Does it take more than 1 year of coaching to take a 8+ERA guy and turn him into a sub 5 ERA guy? Also yes. We just don't have much time to improve this group. For the sake of math lets say 3/6 take 2 steps forward and they give us 7 innings a weekend, the other 3 only take 1 step forward and remain useless.

We're up to 28 innings. Sounds ok right? Well, no. Not yet. We have midweeks, but also pitchers get injured. Last year we got lucky and only really lost Garman and Loftin, maybe 6 innings total of pitching. Year before we lost Simmons, Auger, Pico, and of course Sims. Probably 10-11 innings of our best pitching. Lets say '24 falls in the middle and we loose 8 innings of arms, that brings us to 20 innings of pitching and we still need to play in the midweek. We can really see how Holman's 6 innings of well above average pitching can make or break this staff.

Still, 20 or 26 innings of pitching (depending on Holman) is better than last year's 17 I estimated above. I also think Parker will be better than FOx at timing when to pull guys, go out to settle them down, and CALL PITCHES! My god Fox was awful at that. Probably lost .5 ERA in gameday coaching alone. So My complete guess is that our pitching goes from a F to either a C- (10th in the SEC) or a B- (7th), depending on Holman or alternative Friday starting transfer.

Overall? I bet we are a 2 seed somewhere. Loose in the regional because Lemo can't foster a culture of leadership among the players so they clam up under pressure.

[Cooterpoot]

I've been very negative and will give my honest opinion and "show my work", if you will:

Defense: No doubt we improve at 3B because the Transfer has good stats. But SS? There's nothing to say Cupp will start or can play D in the SEC. He's highly rated but that's off potential, not day 1 polished abilities. Mershon was pretty bad at SS last year, will probably only be marginally better. Highfill got better as the year went on and will be better than last year's stats imply. Hines needs to work on his glove; there's a reason we kept putting Hancock over there. OF is pretty easy to play and I doubt we have much dropoff or improvement there. My bet overall: we go from an F to a C-. From 14th to say, 10th, give or take.

Offense: The 3B transfer is better than Alford for sure, but not a stud. Hit .300 vs much worse pitching than the SEC, lets be generous and say he hits .290 here. Lets assume marginal improvement for the returners: Highfill, Hines, Jordan, Mershon, Larry. The big losses are Clark (our best hitter in SEC play) and Ledbetter. I do NOT buy for one second that Hujesak -who was not a good hitter before State and hit .227 last year- will be able to replace either of those guys. Even assuming a 50 point jump and he's a downgrade. At the other OF spot, it's undeniable it's a "big Portal transfer or bust" situation. We either loose 40 points of hitting at that spot or we improve it by 10 if we get Montgomery. My Bet overall: We go from a C (9th in the SEC in scoring) to either a C+ (8th-7th) or a B (6th-5th) depending on transfers.

Pitching: Last year we sucked. We lost our 7 most reliable innings a weekend (Cade and Hunt), and we were about 10 innings short of pitching in the first place. So, 17 innings of pitching - 7 = 10 innings of solid arms returning between Dohm and Nixons 5 innings a weekend and Tappers 1 (if we're being generous to Tapper), and 4 total solid innings combined from Loo, Holcombe, Davis, Hardin, Siary a weekened. If your ERA is over 7, YOU ARE NOT PROVIDING SOLID INNINGS! Do these guys have the ability to turn into contributors? YES! But were they last year? NO! Yes they occasionally got through a clean inning, but more often they got shelled. To help us next year they have to be able to at least reliably give you something before getting shelled.

So, first up the returning solid guys (Dohm and Nixon and Tapper). Lets say they get a little better and are able to give us an extra inning each, 9 total. Next, we have the injured guys we get back: Loftin, Auger, and SImmons. Hard to judge. 2 haven't pitched in a while and the 3rd we've never seen vs SEC hitters. Lets say 2/3 turn out solid, 1 gives us 4 innings a weekend as a Sunday starter, the other 2 in relief. Not counting Pico Kohn because it sounds like his timetable is too late. That's 6 innings, we're up to 15. Then, the transfers: the Miami guys looks like he can give us 6 decent (ERA of 5ish) innings a weekend. Montgomery is touted as a 2 way player but he pitched 12 innings last year with an ERA of 15- he'd be irrelevant. Up to 21. We REALLY need Holman to join this group. For the most controversial group, the unreliable returners: Loo, Holcombe, Siary, Davis, Forsythe, Hardin. Siary had the best ERA of 7.07. DO these guys have talent? Yes. Did we upgrade at PC? 100% yes. Does it take more than 1 year of coaching to take a 8+ERA guy and turn him into a sub 5 ERA guy? Also yes. We just don't have much time to improve this group. For the sake of math lets say 3/6 take 2 steps forward and they give us 7 innings a weekend, the other 3 only take 1 step forward and remain useless.

We're up to 28 innings. Sounds ok right? Well, no. Not yet. We have midweeks, but also pitchers get injured. Last year we got lucky and only really lost Garman and Loftin, maybe 6 innings total of pitching. Year before we lost Simmons, Auger, Pico, and of course Sims. Probably 10-11 innings of our best pitching. Lets say '24 falls in the middle and we loose 8 innings of arms, that brings us to 20 innings of pitching and we still need to play in the midweek. We can really see how Holman's 6 innings of well above average pitching can make or break this staff.

Still, 20 or 26 innings of pitching (depending on Holman) is better than last year's 17 I estimated above. I also think Parker will be better than FOx at timing when to pull guys, go out to settle them down, and CALL PITCHES! My god Fox was awful at that. Probably lost .5 ERA in gameday coaching alone. So My complete guess is that our pitching goes from a F to either a C- (10th in the SEC) or a B- (7th), depending on Holman or alternative Friday starting transfer.

Overall? I bet we are a 2 seed somewhere. Loose in the regional because Lemo can't foster a culture of leadership among the players so they clam up under pressure.

Mershon was good at SS. He got hit with some errors at 3B but was at almost .900 fielding anyway coming off injury. You have no idea about Cupp. Hines was coming off a back injury.
Montgomery will more than cover for Clark. Hujsak is hitting it in summer ball. Holman and Ligon are better at two spots than we had in rotation last year. It's lose, not loose.

[WSOPdawg]

Mershon was good at SS. He got hit with some errors at 3B but was at almost .900 fielding anyway coming off injury. You have no idea about Cupp. Hines was coming off a back injury.
Montgomery will more than cover for Clark. Hujsak is hitting it in summer ball. Holman and Ligon are better at two spots than we had in rotation last year. It's lose, not loose.

Lololol, thank you, Cooter. I was wondering if it was just me.

[Homedawg]

Cupp is really good defensively

[Coach34]

What?s the latest on Montgomery? Steve put an update up on the 247 board a few hours ago.

As others have said- we are in a good spot. He and Burns have buddied up and talked of playing together- but he and Hines have been buddies awhile and want to play together. We are working hard to make it happen. We land Monty and we have made the team better thru the portal and crootin. Then need the freshmen to grow up some and play to their talent as Sophs this Spring

[Coach34]

Cupp is really good defensively

Yeah Cupp can play D just needs to develop the bat. Fortunately he wont have alot of pressure as a true freshman and can spot start at SS and 3B.

[smootness]

Holding our batting to the same middle of the pack. Not giving them more success versus Friday Aces. Still getting aggravated sodomy from Vandy in Week-2. But giving MSU the 10th best ERA in the conference at 6.83 versus +9.00. MSU wins 16 games and loses 14 SEC games. That even starting the season 1-5 and losing 6 of 7 down a different stretch with Tennessee, Arkansas, and LSU. At 16 and 14, MSU would likely have hosted.

Giving MSU the 12th best ERA, all else constant. Same record, too many non-competitive games but you are in the 15-to-16 win range. Even still having the worst ERA in the conference, but almost matching the 13th worst, MSU would have won 14 or so games. Made a regional.

Now, with hitting. MSU was mid pack hitting at 266 but 10th in runs scored in the conference. About 10 fewer runs than the average team. MSU has been mid-pack for years in this stat. But without E5 (easy out), the Captain (toothless and slow), Foreskin (non-factor) you can start talking about change. Yes, ledbetter is a loss and an amazing player. The three bad hitters were also 50% of the DPs. MSU was worst in the conference in DPs. So, with Kohler at 3B, Hines at 1B, Cupp/Mershon at SS, and Hujsak hopefully matching Clark. I see about 0.20 more runs, still mid-pack. If you can get Montgomery, i think this team can at least be the 8th best team in the conference for runs, that 0.5 more runs per game. You are in the +17 range for wins. Even a shitty Auburn team that MSU could have swept won 17 games. So there is that.

I’m sorry, but this is all nonsense.

We scored the 10th most runs in the conference, and you think if we also give up the 10th fewest, we win 16 games? So better than average by being clearly worse than average at both?

The best predictor of future results is run differential, not wins. And what people fail to realize is that our win total was actually high given our run differential. We had the worst in the league, worse than OM and WAY worse than anyone not OM, Missouri and UGA included. If we played the year all over again, we were more likely to have fewer wins than more or even the same number.

If we magically gave up 2.5 fewer runs/game, we would have still had a RD of -28. That would have been 11th in the conference, evenly between Missouri and A&M. So you’re probably talking 12 wins, not 16.

You think we could have scored the 10th most runs, given up the most, and still won 14 games? That is just insane. This is the definition of homerism. Some are just not willing to see just how bad we were last year. We need to be vastly better, not just a little better here and there. We need an entire overhaul, we were beyond awful.

[The Federalist Engineer]

I’m sorry, but this is all nonsense.

We scored the 10th most runs in the conference, and you think if we also give up the 10th fewest, we win 16 games? So better than average by being clearly worse than average at both?

The best predictor of future results is run differential, not wins. And what people fail to realize is that our win total was actually high given our run differential. We had the worst in the league, worse than OM and WAY worse than anyone not OM, Missouri and UGA included. If we played the year all over again, we were more likely to have fewer wins than more or even the same number.

If we magically gave up 2.5 fewer runs/game, we would have still had a RD of -28. That would have been 11th in the conference, evenly between Missouri and A&M. So you’re probably talking 12 wins, not 16.

You think we could have scored the 10th most runs, given up the most, and still won 14 games? That is just insane. This is the definition of homerism. Some are just not willing to see just how bad we were last year. We need to be vastly better, not just a little better here and there. We need an entire overhaul, we were beyond awful.

Run Differential is numerology. After a certain point, it is more a proxy for a lack of depth or a strategic marshalling of forces.

You get beat 26 to 3, that has nothing to do with the next game. Florida beat LSU 24 to 4, that had zero to do with how game-3 is played. UF did not win the series 31-26 by Run Differential. Jack Leiter and Vandy beat MsState 8-2 in game-1, Lemonis kept arms fresh for Game-2 and Game-3. Pitching is an independent variable in baseball that other sports do not share.

MSU has been consistently mid-pack in hitting, even in 2022 with 9 wins, basically similar per game production to 2021 in a championship. To get back to decent, just need to pitch decently, that's the biggest issue, to at least making Hoover.

Also, it's rare for the SEC only stats to have the same "best" pitching and "best" hitting on the chart outside of Vandy with their Recruiting prowess and depth. Everybody else is playing with sharp A, B, and C options. This year the best hitting was Kentucky and the best pitching Alabama, neither was a player for SEC champ or making Omaha. 2023, LSU was above average hitting and about average pitching, champ, with an invincible ace. 2022 OM was below average hitting and average pitching, champ, getting hot at the end. 2021, MSU was average hitting (same hitting and fewer runs than this year) and 3rd in pitching, Champs.