Quote Originally Posted by The Federalist Engineer View Post


Holding our batting to the same middle of the pack. Not giving them more success versus Friday Aces. Still getting aggravated sodomy from Vandy in Week-2. But giving MSU the 10th best ERA in the conference at 6.83 versus +9.00. MSU wins 16 games and loses 14 SEC games. That even starting the season 1-5 and losing 6 of 7 down a different stretch with Tennessee, Arkansas, and LSU. At 16 and 14, MSU would likely have hosted.

Giving MSU the 12th best ERA, all else constant. Same record, too many non-competitive games but you are in the 15-to-16 win range. Even still having the worst ERA in the conference, but almost matching the 13th worst, MSU would have won 14 or so games. Made a regional.

Now, with hitting. MSU was mid pack hitting at 266 but 10th in runs scored in the conference. About 10 fewer runs than the average team. MSU has been mid-pack for years in this stat. But without E5 (easy out), the Captain (toothless and slow), Foreskin (non-factor) you can start talking about change. Yes, ledbetter is a loss and an amazing player. The three bad hitters were also 50% of the DPs. MSU was worst in the conference in DPs. So, with Kohler at 3B, Hines at 1B, Cupp/Mershon at SS, and Hujsak hopefully matching Clark. I see about 0.20 more runs, still mid-pack. If you can get Montgomery, i think this team can at least be the 8th best team in the conference for runs, that 0.5 more runs per game. You are in the +17 range for wins. Even a shitty Auburn team that MSU could have swept won 17 games. So there is that.
Q knows all this he is just being obtuse. 25% less walks would lower our ERA a good chunk- which obviously would have led to more wins. This isn’t rocket surgery