Keep an eye on next Tuesday

[starkvegasdawg]

Every time it clouds up in the spring anybody loosely affiliated with weather gets asked if this event is going go be another 4/27/11. And that gets egged on by jackasses on social media pumping out fear porn by the dump truck full. So I decided to address a few things.

4/27/11 was a generational level outbreak. The one before then was the super outbreak of 1974. This far out it's impossible to know with any certainty how strong this Tuesday will be. On 4/23/11 they didn't know what was getting ready to happen. So anybody making claims of a massive tornado outbreak Tuesday is straight up full of shit.

That said, here is what we know. The SPC placed most of MS under a day 5 enhanced risk. That has no bearing on how bad it will be and doesn't mean this will end up a high risk. It simply means there's enough model agreement to be reasonably certain we will have severe weather on Tuesday. Now, the models are showing some very favorable parameters for a significant severe weather event. Some of the values are concerning. However, some of the others are just now coming into the low end of the severe threshold. The question is whether those marginal parameters keep trending up or will the high level numbers start coming down. Another mitigating factor is there appears to be little, if any, cap in place during the morning. That can lead to early messy convection that hampers supercell development. Will that continue or will some semblance of an early morning cap be in place to impede early convection? These are just some of the questions that are impossible to answer now. That is why the SPC will not issue a moderate risk before day 3 and a high risk before day 2. If they aren't sure enough to make the call 4 days out then Bob's weather page doesn't have a clue when he's saying it'll be Armageddon this far out.

So, how do I think this plays out? Based on the trends I'm seeing right now it would not surprise me to see parts of MS end up in a moderate risk for Tuesday. My thinking is that area, if it happens, will be primarily west of I-55 and south of Highway 82. By tomorrow afternoon some of the midrange models will start coming into play and it'll be interesting to see what they say. But no need to panic. This is spring in MS. We get storm systems like this every year. Just be prepared. Sunday, a video I made on sheltering during severe weather will hit our YouTube page. It was the fifth and last video in the severe weather series I made. It's currently available now on our Patreon site, but due to the subject of the video, will be made public to everybody on Sunday. So give it a listen and make sure you're ready for severe weather when it affects your area.

[starkvegasdawg]

Even though, per my last post, I still don't think this will be close to a 4/27/11...the following is from the latest SPC discussion for Tuesday. This is some somber wording:

Latest deterministic and ensemble runs of the medium-range global models continue to depict likelihood of a continuation of potentially substantial severe-weather event across the central Gulf Coast states Tuesday and into Wednesday. This includes a reasonable probability of a regional-type tornado outbreak centered over central and southern Mississippi for Tuesday.
As strong upper low/trough over the central and southern Plains region shifts gradually eastward, a belt of very strong mid- and upper-level southwesterlies will likely extend from east Texas across the Tennessee Valley, atop a 60 kt southerly low-level jet. The resulting/anticipated degree of veering and increasing flow with height falls within high-end parameter space for significant tornadoes.

[Cooterpoot]

Already seeing school cancellations for Tuesday.

[starkvegasdawg]

I don't know if the morning runs of the models are a one off or if this is how it's trending but all I can say is holy shit.

[ArrowDawg]

I don't know if the morning runs of the models are a one off or if this is how it's trending but all I can say is holy shit.

Considering I live in Clinton, I concur on that "holy shit."

[msstate7]

I don't know if the morning runs of the models are a one off or if this is how it's trending but all I can say is holy shit.

What's it look like for Philadelphia, ms?

[starkvegasdawg]

What's it look like for Philadelphia, ms?

Definitely in the severe threat but I'm thinking the worst may be your west.

[Commercecomet24]

I don't know if the morning runs of the models are a one off or if this is how it's trending but all I can say is holy shit.

How's it looking for Jones county? Thanks for all the info!

[starkvegasdawg]

How's it looking for Jones county? Thanks for all the info!

I'm still thinking worst is west of 55 and south of 82, but to be honest it's still too soon to be nailing down specifics.

[Commercecomet24]

I'm still thinking worst is west of 55 and south of 82, but to be honest it's still too soon to be nailing down specifics.

Thanks man! Appreciate all you do!

[shoeless joe]

How's it looking for Jones county? Thanks for all the info!

Man you know that ANY severe threat is gonna have a bullseye on smith, Covington, Jones counties

[Commercecomet24]

Man you know that ANY severe threat is gonna have a bullseye on smith, Covington, Jones counties

Man don't you know it! Sucks!

Have had tornadoes go just north of us, just south of us and just west of us the last couple years.

[DownwardDawg]

Man don't you know it! Sucks!

Have had tornadoes go just north of us, just south of us and just west of us the last couple years.

I'm hanging out with the kids on 84 right now!!!!

[Commercecomet24]

I'm hanging out with the kids on 84 right now!!!!

You gonna hang around for the Tuesday fireworks?

[DownwardDawg]

You gonna hang around for the Tuesday fireworks?

Nope!!!!! Lol
I've invited them to Tennessee!!! Haha

[Commercecomet24]

Nope!!!!! Lol
I've invited them to Tennessee!!! Haha

Good idea!

[starkvegasdawg]

SPC has upgraded to a moderate risk. Substantial severe weather and tornado outbreak now expected. This is starting to look like it's going to be a rough day, especially in the red shaded area.

[starkvegasdawg]

With the anticipated significant severe expected Tuesday, we decided to make my last video on sheltering tips publicly available this morning. Give it a watch make sure you're fully prepared just in case.

[parabrave]

Hey Vdog every time I check on the Models they keep on moving the severe threat more to the south. Think CC and Shoeless need to replenish their bunkers?>

[starkvegasdawg]

Hey Vdog every time I check on the Models they keep on moving the severe threat more to the south. Think CC and Shoeless need to replenish their bunkers?>

Definitely been a trend doing that. Also, a lot of the models showing a qlcs type event instead of discrete cells. If that materializes then be more of a wind event and less of a tornado threat. Just got to see how it all plays out.