College Offensive Success is 70%+ About QB Play

[ShotgunDawg]

Was thinking about the all the hand ringing over Leach's offense & it's so obvious why it's not running all that well right now.

Total offense rankings under Mullen:

2009 - 69 - Tyson Lee - Couldn't really do anything above average.
2010 - 42- Chris Relf - Could pound the football at an above average level
2011 - 84 - Chris Relf - Not sure I remember what happened in 2011
2012 - 80 - Tyler Russell - Offense cannot pound the QB
2013 - 42 - Dak effect starts to take place. Above average at running with capable passing.
2014 - 8 - Dak
2015 - 31 - No run Dak, but above average passing Dak
2016 - 44 - No throw Fitz, but well above average running
2017 - 46 - Same as 2016

Point is, you can look through these total offensive rankings & see the importance of having a QB that can do something at an above average level. If Ole Miss & MSU traded QBs right now, I believe, with some wiggle room, our offensive rankings would basically switch places over night.

Maybe Will is the long term guy (Don't think he is) or maybe he is not, but until he does something at an above average level, whether it be mobility, processing, or arm talent, this offense isn't going to be what we want it to be & it won't be about the scheme.

[chef dixon]

Our run game is never going to be close as successful as Ole Miss even if QBs were switched. Will is going to have to stretch the field better than he is now in order for our vanilla running game to be more effective even against mediocre teams. I was a little encouraged by some of the play fakes we were doing last weekend, but it has a long way to go.

[ShotgunDawg]

Our run game is never going to be close as successful as Ole Miss even if QBs were switched. Will is going to have to stretch the field better than he is now in order for our vanilla running game to be more effective even against mediocre teams. I was a little encouraged by some of the play fakes we were doing last weekend, but it has a long way to go.

Once Leach has the right QB on the field, the offense will completely open up. Until then, it's going to be clunky & a grind

[Coach34]

2011 and 2015's issues were OL play. We had 4 new starters both years. 2011 was extra bad because of new starters and injuries.

[ShotgunDawg]

2011 and 2015's issues were OL play. We had 4 new starters both years. 2011 was extra bad because of new starters and injuries.

OL play is certainly the other 30%. You gotta have an above average OL & an above average QB to move the ball & we're currently no better than average at both. Not going to work regardless of scheme.

Once Leach gets a QB on the field that can do something at an above average level, it's going to be tough & not look great

[dawgman15]

He completes passes at an above average rate? Why can't you cut a true sophomore some slack

[ShotgunDawg]

He completes passes at an above average rate? Why can't you cut a true sophomore some slack

- completing dump offs to the RBs is not an above average ability.

- The fact that he is a true SO is his slack. He ain't there yet and this offense won't be any good until the person behind center is there.

I care way more about MSU than who the QB is. It's not personal

Not sure why people think the MSU QB should be given slack. It's weird how attached this fan base gets to local kids. Really weird. Other SEC schools couldn't care less. They just want someone that will do the job.

[msugolf]

Colin Cowherd actually alluded to this yesterday on his show when talking about why the Rams made the switch to Stafford over Goff. Go listen to his show from yesterday in the first hour at the 17 min mark.

Basically he said the Rams were ok with Goff but they (Rams front office) felt like they had to be perfect. Lots of long, perfect drives where one mistake would kill it ... one penalty, one missed assignment, one mis read by the qb, one dropped pass, etc. Stafford yards per attempt was 12.6 on Sunday. Lots of deep middle, deep right, short left, mixing it up.

You have to accept the fact that there will be interceptions and take risks. In fact, the analytics say that interceptions/turnovers on a 20+ long pass don't really have a negative effect on the outcome.

We need a gunslinger, not a game manager.

[msstate7]

He completes passes at an above average rate? Why can't you cut a true sophomore some slack

And yet, we're #12 in sec in total offense again this year after being 12th last year. SELa outperformed our offense vs la tech

ETA... to be fair, I don't think this is all on Rogers, but I do think a good bit is

[thf24]

We need a gunslinger, not a game manager.

We don't even need a "gunslinger" in the Brett Favre sense; just a guy with the confidence and arm strength to consistently find and hit open receivers more than 10 yards deep. I'm a fan of Will's and I think he'll get there in the confidence department with a little more experience, but his arm strength at this point looks like it'll always be a limitation on this offense.

Last year, the issues were all over the field. This year, we've had receivers running wide open all game in both outings, and the OL seems to be getting its shit together after a rocky start. I hate to say it but the issues are very quickly consolidating down to Will.

[dawgman15]

I agree with you MSU golf that his yards per attempt need to come up but that is going to come with experience. Most of the successful drives we have had this year stemmed off of will throwing it 10+ yards for multiple plays.

[confucius say]

The current makeup of our offense makes it imperative that we do not have penalties or bad snaps to get behind the chains. The penalties are drive killers.

Also, when teams stop kicking to Tulu that takes away what has been our most explosive play this year.

But I do believe the offense has improved from last year. Just not a lot.

[ShotgunDawg]

Colin Cowherd actually alluded to this yesterday on his show when talking about why the Rams made the switch to Stafford over Goff. Go listen to his show from yesterday in the first hour at the 17 min mark.

Basically he said the Rams were ok with Goff but they (Rams front office) felt like they had to be perfect. Lots of long, perfect drives where one mistake would kill it ... one penalty, one missed assignment, one mis read by the qb, one dropped pass, etc. Stafford yards per attempt was 12.6 on Sunday. Lots of deep middle, deep right, short left, mixing it up.

You have to accept the fact that there will be interceptions and take risks. In fact, the analytics say that interceptions/turnovers on a 20+ long pass don't really have a negative effect on the outcome.

We need a gunslinger, not a game manager.

This is a great take. Exactly right. Until we have a needle mover at QB, we're just going to be ok

[ShotgunDawg]

We don't even need a "gunslinger" in the Brett Favre sense; just a guy with the confidence and arm strength to consistently find and hit open receivers more than 10 yards deep. I'm a fan of Will's and I think he'll get there in the confidence department with a little more experience, but his arm strength at this point looks like it'll always be a limitation on this offense.

Last year, the issues were all over the field. This year, we've had receivers running wide open all game in both outings, and the OL seems to be getting its shit together after a rocky start. I hate to say it but the issues are very quickly consolidating down to Will.

Gunslinger insinuates reckless play. We don't need reckless play, but we do need the equivalent of a point guard that can create his own shot

[thf24]

If Ole Miss & MSU traded QBs right now, I believe, with some wiggle room, our offensive rankings would basically switch places over night.

A guy with Corral's arm strength and an average football head, absolutely. If you were to drop Corral into our offense as is, there's a good chance he produces about like KJ did last year.

[ShotgunDawg]

I agree with you MSU golf that his yards per attempt need to come up but that is going to come with experience. Most of the successful drives we have had this year stemmed off of will throwing it 10+ yards for multiple plays.

You need to talent to do that.

He'll get better with experience, but people will be shocked what this offense looks like once we have an above average talent at QB. That guy isn't ready yet, so I'm not calling for a QB change. Just laying it out there that we shouldn't expect some massive uptick until the right guy is ready. It's not the scheme

[ShotgunDawg]

A guy with Corral's arm strength and an average football head, absolutely. If you were to drop Corral into our offense as is, there's a good chance he produces about like KJ did last year.

He's infinitely more talented than KJ. Much better athlete & quicker release. Sure, he'd need some experience in the scheme, but once he had it, the offense would be dynamic & almost unstoppable

[dawgman15]

You need to talent to do that.

He'll get better with experience, but people will be shocked what this offense looks like once we have an above average talent at QB. That guy isn't ready yet, so I'm not calling for a QB change. Just laying it out there that we shouldn't some massive uptick until the right guy is ready. It's not the scheme

I like how you imply that Will Rogers is untalented. I guess Mike Leach has never had a talented qb when considering none of qbs have ever been known for slinging it down field

[ShotgunDawg]

I like how you imply that Will Rogers is untalented. I guess Mike Leach has never had a talented qb when considering none of qbs have ever been known for slinging it down field

Most all of his QBs have been more talented than Will though. There is a threshold of athleticism & arm talent needed to run this offense at the D1 level & Will kind of straddles that threshold.

[dawgman15]

Could you provide some statistics to verify that he is less talented? Are you strictly going off the eye test?