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07-03-2020, 09:03 AM
#4181

Originally Posted by
msstate7
Let's assume this is correct... how many total cases so far?
30 million
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07-03-2020, 09:06 AM
#4182

Originally Posted by
hacker
30 million
Thanks.
That's in line with the CDC estimate.
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07-03-2020, 09:45 AM
#4183

Originally Posted by
Joebob
I haven't checked the numbers, but hospital capacity is starting to get tight in the big cities in Texas. It's not dire yet, but it's certainly got the governor's attention.
Houston Metro area is out of normal ICU Beds and is into the surge supply. They have been transferring adults to the Children's hospital ICU for a week, and are sending patients to out of area Hospitals.
300+ new hospitalizations a day and growing at 4% a day.
The valley, Metroplex, and Austin are in a similar situation.
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07-03-2020, 10:32 AM
#4184

Originally Posted by
SheltonChoked
Houston Metro area is out of normal ICU Beds and is into the surge supply. They have been transferring adults to the Children's hospital ICU for a week, and are sending patients to out of area Hospitals.
300+ new hospitalizations a day and growing at 4% a day.
The valley, Metroplex, and Austin are in a similar situation.
Any info about how long ICU visits last? (I know this sounds terrible) Texas has a low death rate, so this probably really compounds the ICU problem.
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07-03-2020, 12:18 PM
#4185

Originally Posted by
msstate7
Thanks.
That's in line with the CDC estimate.
Using the same metric, it estimates the daily new infections for Mississippi:
July 1: 7,990
June 1: 2,000
May 1: 3,330
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07-03-2020, 12:36 PM
#4186

Originally Posted by
msstate7
Any info about how long ICU visits last? (I know this sounds terrible) Texas has a low death rate, so this probably really compounds the ICU problem.
Please don't also forget when COVID spikes, elective surgeries are cancelled. When elective surgeries are cancelled, health systems begin hemorrhaging money. The TX hospitals are flush w/ reserves, but if this trend picks up in MS - I don't know a lot of systems that will be able to manage financially.
The mortality rate going down is huge, but if the feds don't step in and backstop the financial losses - the landscape of healthcare will be forever changed moving forward.
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07-03-2020, 02:51 PM
#4187

Originally Posted by
msstate7
Any info about how long ICU visits last? (I know this sounds terrible) Texas has a low death rate, so this probably really compounds the ICU problem.
Are you asking how long they are in the hospital or how long they are on the vent? Based on what I have seen and I have not collected any data this is just a pure educated guess here- I would say that the worst cases are 3-4 weeks. Most are shorter and I would guess the average would be somewhere between a week or a week and a half. Which may be way off but it's probably going to give you a decent idea of what to expect.
The average LOS (length of stay) is probably going to be 3 weeks for all COVID patients.
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07-03-2020, 03:24 PM
#4188

Originally Posted by
SheltonChoked
Houston Metro area is out of normal ICU Beds and is into the surge supply. They have been transferring adults to the Children's hospital ICU for a week, and are sending patients to out of area Hospitals.
300+ new hospitalizations a day and growing at 4% a day.
The valley, Metroplex, and Austin are in a similar situation.
15% of the COVID ICU cases in Houston are in their 20s & 30s
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07-03-2020, 03:50 PM
#4189

Originally Posted by
msstate7
Any info about how long ICU visits last? (I know this sounds terrible) Texas has a low death rate, so this probably really compounds the ICU problem.
Average hospital stays are 10 days to 2 weeks. But 25% need more than 3 weeks.
Projections are Houston Metro will be out of the "Sustainable surge ICU beds" in about 12 days. Then they will begin converting Medical/Surgical units into ICU beds, or sending patients to Louisiana.
Keep in mind, in Houston Metro on a normal 4th of July weekend, there are 2,300 car crashes, with 1,300 injuries. 200 of the injuries are severe enough to need ICU. And the ICU's are full. And the ER's are full of Covid positive people...
Wear a mask.
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07-03-2020, 03:52 PM
#4190

Originally Posted by
Liverpooldawg
15% of the COVID ICU cases in Houston are in their 20s & 30s
But that cannot be right, that would be the age of football players, and people on here say they don't die, so they should be ok to entertain me this fall.
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07-03-2020, 04:19 PM
#4191

Originally Posted by
SheltonChoked
Average hospital stays are 10 days to 2 weeks. But 25% need more than 3 weeks.
Projections are Houston Metro will be out of the "Sustainable surge ICU beds" in about 12 days. Then they will begin converting Medical/Surgical units into ICU beds, or sending patients to Louisiana.
Keep in mind, in Houston Metro on a normal 4th of July weekend, there are 2,300 car crashes, with 1,300 injuries. 200 of the injuries are severe enough to need ICU. And the ICU's are full. And the ER's are full of Covid positive people...
Wear a mask.
Houston is beyond screwed. I?ve got a close friend who is a flight nurse out there and he told me a week ago any trauma that was a bravo they were flying to Austin or San Antonio.
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07-03-2020, 04:22 PM
#4192

Originally Posted by
SheltonChoked
But that cannot be right, that would be the age of football players, and people on here say they don't die, so they should be ok to entertain me this fall.
First of all i don't know anyone who is a 30 year old college football player. That's taking a stat and making it to however you want to sound. Second, they previously mentioned somehow managed to get it not playing football. Lastly, it's more about moving on with life. If someone chooses not to play, so be it. Certainly there choice. People are going to get sick, some will die. I get it. But, if the virus causes the stop of an event, then when is it ever going to be ok to play??? good chance never.
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07-03-2020, 04:26 PM
#4193
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07-03-2020, 04:31 PM
#4194

Originally Posted by
Liverpooldawg
15% of the COVID ICU cases in Houston are in their 20s & 30s
I'd like to see a source on that.
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07-03-2020, 04:44 PM
#4195

Originally Posted by
Homedawg
First of all i don't know anyone who is a 30 year old college football player. That's taking a stat and making it to however you want to sound. Second, they previously mentioned somehow managed to get it not playing football. Lastly, it's more about moving on with life. If someone chooses not to play, so be it. Certainly there choice. People are going to get sick, some will die. I get it. But, if the virus causes the stop of an event, then when is it ever going to be ok to play??? good chance never.
Here's another thing, 60k plus showed up for protests in Houston and now folks that protested are coming down with covid. Who would've ever guessed that would happen.
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07-03-2020, 05:43 PM
#4196

Originally Posted by
Commercecomet24
Here's another thing, 60k plus showed up for protests in Houston and now folks that protested are coming down with covid. Who would've ever guessed that would happen.
No one at CNN.
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07-03-2020, 08:03 PM
#4197
Here's the results of the wake forest baptist study I told y'all about back in April. Interesting facts here:
https://www.wfae.org/post/wake-fores...ought#stream/0
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07-03-2020, 08:23 PM
#4198

Originally Posted by
Todd4State
No one at CNN.
Have some rep.
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07-03-2020, 08:25 PM
#4199

Originally Posted by
Todd4State
No one at CNN.
Have some more rep.
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07-03-2020, 08:28 PM
#4200

Originally Posted by
Todd4State
No one at CNN.
More rep my friend!
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