Quote Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg View Post
The early FPI is heavily weighted to returning production. We lost our top producing passer, our #2 & #3 rushers; our #2, 3, & 4 WR; Tacklers #2, 3, 4, 7 & 9 plus Willie Gay; and the players who produced 7 of our 11 INTS.
Off a 6-7 team.
According to Edwards in his OOB interview he said they DID actually tweak the formula to not put as much emphasis on returning production and instead replaced it with returning talent. I guess they go by their own recruiting rankings to determine that, which is another topic. Also he said the formula isn't high on Costello because it only factors in the previous year production. And another thing is that it doesn't factor in overall coaching effect like Bartoo's does.

He ended up contradicting himself a bunch with the FPI results because even according to their recruiting rankings we've outrecruited Arky, Mizz, Kentucky, NCState the last 5 years. And said it DOES factor in if you have a first year coach (typically a down year) and said that it hurts State but didn't mention that Ark, Mizz, OM all have first year coaches too.

Basically its just a really bad formula that I have a feeling will get blown apart this year.