The Covid-19 Info thread (keep politics out please)

[hacker]

April 18-21 projected deaths using the model: 8094
April 18-21 actual deaths: 8169

That's pretty accurate, no?

Why didn't you mention the iHME projection predicting ~ 700 too many deaths on the 19th?

By the way, the reason it always seems so "accurate" is because every few days they update it. They also remove their historical projection and put the actual deaths on the chart.

The model they released on 4/9 (the one where deaths first dropped to 60k) projected our peak at 1900 deaths and was down to 1400 yesterday.

Historical models here:

https://www.covid-projections.com/

Anyway, this model is bad because they pre-selected a bell curve with the peak lasting for a day or two and then dropping. We've been plateaued at around 26k - 32k new cases for the entire month of April.

The 4/9 model also had Spain and Italy at less than 50 daily deaths by now. They're both still around 500 deaths per day.