Easter Sunday Severe?

[TheRef]

I agree. And great to have Ref back!!

[Dawgbite]

Only one in Monroe County that day. The Smithville one started in the Wren community as a much weaker tornado. It lifted for a bit and then touched down again with a vengeance.

Two in Monroe that day. I live in Wren, both passed about two miles from my house. The morning one wasn?t as strong but passed a commercial business just up the road on its right side by about 200 yards. This one was before daylight. The Smithville tornado crossed 45 just 200 yards to the left of the business. No damage from either to the business but total destruction on both sides. The Smithville tornado was about 3 pm, my Dumbass stood in the parking lot at work in Amory and watched it headed up the waterway.

[confucius say]

Can y'all speak to timing? Like is it going to be along a squal line that extends from Tupelo to Natchez? And once a line passes you it is over? Or more of an all day event where smn could pop up at anytime during the day?

[starkvegasdawg]

Can y'all speak to timing? Like is it going to be along a squal line that extends from Tupelo to Natchez? And once a line passes you it is over? Or more of an all day event where smn could pop up at anytime during the day?

It's going to be over an extended time. There will be discrete supercells starting mid morning and that will be the storm mode most of the day. Once the cold front approaches a squall line will form and clear everything out.

[Bubb Rubb]

It's going to be over an extended time. There will be discrete supercells starting mid morning and that will be the storm mode most of the day. Once the cold front approaches a squall line will form and clear everything out.

Early models were showing the squall line to be less severe than the discrete stuff throughout the day, but now the squall line is starting to look scary too. Sunday is looking like a 12 hour roller coaster ride.

[starkvegasdawg]

Early models were showing the squall line to be less severe than the discrete stuff throughout the day, but now the squall line is starting to look scary too. Sunday is looking like a 12 hour roller coaster ride.

The discrete cells will have your greatest risk for the strong long track tornadoes and the extremely large hail. The line will be your biggest threat for the damaging straight line winds. That said, the line can still produce tornadoes and hail, but typically they won't be as intense as those in the discrete cells. Right now I'm anticipating a 3-5 hour window of discrete supercells and then the squall line pushing through and clearing it all out.

[jgunn]

Great info guys! Do you all think it will come as far north as Southaven/Memphis area?

[Liverpooldawg]

Two in Monroe that day. I live in Wren, both passed about two miles from my house. The morning one wasn?t as strong but passed a commercial business just up the road on its right side by about 200 yards. This one was before daylight. The Smithville tornado crossed 45 just 200 yards to the left of the business. No damage from either to the business but total destruction on both sides. The Smithville tornado was about 3 pm, my Dumbass stood in the parking lot at work in Amory and watched it headed up the waterway.

I don't think the morning one was ever officially defined as a tornado.

[Bubb Rubb]

Great info guys! Do you all think it will come as far north as Southaven/Memphis area?

It's looking more and more likely. As it stands now, Memphis is in the day 3 enhanced field already. There will definitely be severe stuff there when the squall line comes through. How much discrete severe weather you get will depend on how far north the warm front gets and how much time the atmosphere gets to recover from sunday morning convection.

[DownwardDawg]

My all time favorite movie.

It’s cold tonight. Like stupid cold for tonight. Doesn’t feel like it’s gonna get bad weather!!

[starkvegasdawg]

Latest SPC guidance is out. As expected, it has remained a moderate threat over much of MS with a 15% hatched threat for tornadoes and a 30% hatched for wind and hail. Jackson NWS is saying hail up to tennis ball size will be possible Sunday. They did leave the door wide open for an upgrade to a high risk, but there are a few issues that need to be resolved mainly dealing with how morning convection may or may not hamper the main event afternoon storms.

[Churchill]

LOL I go and look at all the maps and read everything I can....then I come here to find out what the hell I just looked at. I can't thank you guys enough for being here.

[TheRef]

LOL I go and look at all the maps and read everything I can....then I come here to find out what the hell I just looked at. I can't thank you guys enough for being here.

That's what we're here for

[dawgoneyall]

That's what we're here for

But you are not up at 2:30 in the morning like starkvegasdawg

[TheRef]

But you are not up at 2:30 in the morning like starkvegasdawg

I am...I'm working at that time.

[Churchill]

Ref, What's your take at this time ?

[TheRef]

Ref, What's your take at this time ?

This is going to be a dangerous/volatile system. Take this threat seriously. If you wake up Sunday morning to bright sunny skies, we're going to have a bad time. Today, make sure your severe weather plan is known by everyone in your household. If you go to a community/public tornado shelter, go ahead and get some PPE for you and your family. If you're placed under a watch, keep your eyes open. Heed all warnings and take this seriously. If this setup ends up verifying like the models say, it's going to be a long system.

Now models are currently trying to decide if this will turn into a linear system or if cells will stay discrete. Those storm modes both bring different volatility standards. Just keep an eye out and listen to your local meteorologists and the National Weather Service. Don't worry about TOR:CON or any other weird index. Mainly, just act like we always have for severe weather days.

[Churchill]

Thank you.

[parabrave]

Thanks for posting some of the sites but what Radar sites do you follow? I watch the NWS velocity radar but it seems to me to be too general.

[starkvegasdawg]

Thanks for posting some of the sites but what Radar sites do you follow? I watch the NWS velocity radar but it seems to me to be too general.

For radar, I'd get RadarScope for your phone. The best $9.99 you will spend. Then if you want to get fancy you can upgrade to tier 1 for $9.99/year.