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Thread: The Covid-19 Info thread (keep politics out please)

  1. #1641
    Senior Member Todd4State's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dantheman4248 View Post
    We definitely have slowed this down a whole lot as a country. Credit needs to be given that we've gotten our heads out of our asses and are starting to see the effects of social distancing. Still, crossed into .1% of the country *PROVEN* infected with this. About 3% of that subset dead. Figure as it goes we'll see slightly better results.

    The exponential rate of growing is finally starting to hit its wall. Logarithmically we are starting to see this flatten. My fear was that we wouldn't see that until we broke the 1 million infected mark. Hopefully this continues to be the case and flattens more.

    Updating my prediction, i think this will have about a 1.75% death rate among proven cases w/ hopefully no more than 2% of the country proven infected. (That would be only around 100k deaths) That would be an astounding recovery that we made from where we were looking at a few weeks ago. Hopefully people understand this as proof social distancing works and that it helped save lives. These next two months are going to be rough. Let's see if we can keep it up.
    I think Dr. Fauci's models were way off to start with. But no doubt social distancing has still helped save lives.

  2. #1642
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    Quote Originally Posted by Todd4State View Post
    I think Dr. Fauci's models were way off to start with. But no doubt social distancing has still helped save lives.
    I kinda do too. But now that we're social distancing dantheman has a good explanation for how far his models were off too. Sorta like last year's football season ... he was only a tad off on that one *******

  3. #1643
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    Quote Originally Posted by dawgday166 View Post
    I kinda do too. But now that we're social distancing dantheman has a good explanation for how far his models were off too. Sorta like last year's football season ... he was only a tad off on that one *******
    I gave a back of the napkin estimate for the finality. Havent even been proven off of that original prediction either (which I said I didn't think we would do a good job with social distancing).

    This month is going to be interesting to see play out. Because I know personally I'm going stir crazy with quarantining and working from home. If our new cases day per total cases ratio kicks back up then we could be in for a bumpy ride.

    Also hating on these doctor's models when the opposite side was blatantly awful and their inaccuracy led to more deaths while the doctors models helped save lives by conveying the severity of the situation... I mean ffs we had people in the month of march saying there wouldn't be 30k cases in the US before the start of summer. It's barely into April and we already have 5 digit deaths in the country.

    Chastising people for perfectly predicting American behavior and Trump / State behavior is just silly. "Haha you were wrong we didn't have THAT many die." Well yea, that's the ****ing point.

  4. #1644
    Senior Member Todd4State's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dantheman4248 View Post
    I gave a back of the napkin estimate for the finality. Havent even been proven off of that original prediction either (which I said I didn't think we would do a good job with social distancing).

    This month is going to be interesting to see play out. Because I know personally I'm going stir crazy with quarantining and working from home. If our new cases day per total cases ratio kicks back up then we could be in for a bumpy ride.

    Also hating on these doctor's models when the opposite side was blatantly awful and their inaccuracy led to more deaths while the doctors models helped save lives by conveying the severity of the situation... I mean ffs we had people in the month of march saying there wouldn't be 30k cases in the US before the start of summer. It's barely into April and we already have 5 digit deaths in the country.

    Chastising people for perfectly predicting American behavior and Trump / State behavior is just silly. "Haha you were wrong we didn't have THAT many die." Well yea, that's the ****ing point.
    Dr Fauci said in January that Coronavirus wouldn't affect us at all. He has been consistently wrong the entire time. He has had to backtrack multiple times.

    And yeah- it's great that he was wrong in a good way. But I think he's getting way too much credit from people. Heck- Msstate7 on our board has been more right than Dr. Fauci. How come msstate7 isn't getting any accolades?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Todd4State View Post
    Dr Fauci said in January that Coronavirus wouldn't affect us at all. He has been consistently wrong the entire time. He has had to backtrack multiple times.

    And yeah- it's great that he was wrong in a good way. But I think he's getting way too much credit from people. Heck- Msstate7 on our board has been more right than Dr. Fauci. How come msstate7 isn't getting any accolades?
    I'm not really gonna fault predictions from January / early Feb at this point. Not many people could think that we would have been so woefully incompetent at protecting ourselves while China malicious has spread it.

    Not saying he deserves every accolade he's receiving, but some context is needed. He's having to correct whatever idiot things our president says inaccurately and also manage to not piss off that same man who fires people constantly. Fauci started off in a hole a mile deep and is battling back to ground level.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dantheman4248 View Post
    I gave a back of the napkin estimate for the finality. Havent even been proven off of that original prediction either (which I said I didn't think we would do a good job with social distancing).

    This month is going to be interesting to see play out. Because I know personally I'm going stir crazy with quarantining and working from home. If our new cases day per total cases ratio kicks back up then we could be in for a bumpy ride.

    Also hating on these doctor's models when the opposite side was blatantly awful and their inaccuracy led to more deaths while the doctors models helped save lives by conveying the severity of the situation... I mean ffs we had people in the month of march saying there wouldn't be 30k cases in the US before the start of summer. It's barely into April and we already have 5 digit deaths in the country.

    Chastising people for perfectly predicting American behavior and Trump / State behavior is just silly. "Haha you were wrong we didn't have THAT many die." Well yea, that's the ****ing point.
    Just giving you a hard time dude cause ... you're so sensitive about it LOL. I think it's serious shit and would be more serious without social distancing. I feel a lot for those folks in NY ... I do. Would 2 or 3 mill die tho ... kinda skeptical on that one but it's probably better off to be safer than sorry. Especially now that we've started down this path. Unless of course you can't eat or put a roof over your head and your kids' too after this is all over ... I feel a lot for those folks too.

    Trump does some things I like, and some things I don't. Relative to this tho ... he has some tough trades he has to make while listening to experts who are still grasping at the severity of the situation themselves every single day. And he's not doing a bad job of that. Part of the reason he changes his tune every day is cause they keep changing their tune.

    EVERYONE was wrong back in January. Fauci, Pelosi, Cuomo, the NY mayor, the Mich gov ... etc. But I don't hold it against them cause ... no one really knew at that time. The only ones that were smart are the senators and congressmen who made several mill by getting out of the stock market. I do hold that against them.

  7. #1647
    Senior Member Todd4State's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dantheman4248 View Post
    I'm not really gonna fault predictions from January / early Feb at this point. Not many people could think that we would have been so woefully incompetent at protecting ourselves while China malicious has spread it.

    Not saying he deserves every accolade he's receiving, but some context is needed. He's having to correct whatever idiot things our president says inaccurately and also manage to not piss off that same man who fires people constantly. Fauci started off in a hole a mile deep and is battling back to ground level.
    OK- how about his predictions that were off in March about how many people would die? Even the models that showed the "best case" scenario from him were way too high. And I can't buy that ALL of the good news is due to social distancing. Even the White House is starting to not believe him.

  8. #1648
    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Oktibbeha county with its first death. It was an 89 year old woman.

  9. #1649
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    Quote Originally Posted by Todd4State View Post
    OK- how about his predictions that were off in March about how many people would die? Even the models that showed the "best case" scenario from him were way too high. And I can't buy that ALL of the good news is due to social distancing. Even the White House is starting to not believe him.
    I'm pretty sure the best case scenario has always been 100k dead and we'll get there. ~1200 dying each day currently, that number will continue to grow before it plateaus and slowly drops.

    (And only a fraction of a percent of our population has been infected so far)
    Last edited by hacker; 04-06-2020 at 08:24 AM.

  10. #1650
    Senior Member DownwardDawg's Avatar
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    Guys I went to town (Collins) yesterday to get gas in jugs for mower, four wheeler, etc.... I did everything u are supposed to do. I wore a cheap mask, stayed way away from people, and wore latex gloves when using gas nozzle and keypad. The gas pumps were very busy. I had to wait and there were people pulling up when I left. I WAS THE ONLY PERSON DOING ANY OF THIS!!!!! Not 1 damn person was wearing gloves or using sanitizer that I saw!!!!! People looked at me like I was an alien.

  11. #1651
    Senior Member msstate7's Avatar
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    IHME now predicts 81,766 deaths (range is between ~50k - 136k) in US by aug 4th. It predicts 237 deaths (range is between 175 and 325) in miss by aug 4th.

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

  12. #1652
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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    Only 2 countries (Italy and San Marino) have a death rate over 50 per million that have tested at least 10000 per million; this is a sample size of 23 countries. Of this 23 country sample, 12 have a case per million of over 1000. There's only 21 countries in the world with a 1000 cases per million. This data (IMO) supports my theory this virus is a lot more prevalent than the documented cases and the death rate is inflated
    That is not what the death numbers in Italy and Spain are showing. Even adjusting for the COVID deaths, the number of deaths has doubled vs the standard weeks. It may not be "Vivid" deaths, but those unable to get treatment due to covid. (I.e., a heart attack unable to get an ICU, or scared to go to the DR due to Covid)

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...ing-death-toll

  13. #1653
    Senior Member yjnkdawg's Avatar
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    COVID-19 Testing
    Statewide Testing Summary

    COVID-19 testing providers around the state include commercial laboratories and the University of Mississippi Medical Center (UMMC). Combined with testing done by the MSDH Public Health Laboratory, the figures provide a complete picture of all Mississippi testing.

    Combined testing totals (MSDH, UMMC and commercial testing providers) as of April 5, 2020.
    Total individuals tested by the MSDH Public Health Laboratory 6,309
    Total individuals tested by other providers 14,061
    Total individuals tested for COVID-19 statewide 20,378
    Total individuals tested positive for COVID-19 out of that total statewide number 1,738
    Last edited by yjnkdawg; 04-06-2020 at 10:50 AM.

  14. #1654
    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DownwardDawg View Post
    Guys I went to town (Collins) yesterday to get gas in jugs for mower, four wheeler, etc.... I did everything u are supposed to do. I wore a cheap mask, stayed way away from people, and wore latex gloves when using gas nozzle and keypad. The gas pumps were very busy. I had to wait and there were people pulling up when I left. I WAS THE ONLY PERSON DOING ANY OF THIS!!!!! Not 1 damn person was wearing gloves or using sanitizer that I saw!!!!! People looked at me like I was an alien.
    Where I work they are handing out masks like candy if you want them. Maybe 200 people here. I've seen 3 other people wearing masks.

  15. #1655
    Senior Member yjnkdawg's Avatar
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    You really can't go by county numbers concerning safety from Covid-19. Unfortunately in the next day or so (probably tomorrow) there will be another county, which most would call having a minimal number of positive cases (less than 5 and none LTC currently), which will be listed on the MSDH website as having one LTC facility with an outbreak. It is real scary for all of us but especially so concerning these LTC facilities.
    Last edited by yjnkdawg; 04-06-2020 at 11:51 AM.

  16. #1656
    Senior Member DownwardDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg View Post
    Where I work they are handing out masks like candy if you want them. Maybe 200 people here. I've seen 3 other people wearing masks.
    Wow. People are still not doing their part.

  17. #1657
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    Quote Originally Posted by yjnkdawg View Post
    I agree. We really don't know how many people have had either no symptoms or mild symptoms and treated it on their own (with no medical visit or consultation), and therefore the State Health Departments and the CDC would not be aware that they even had the virus.
    Millions

  18. #1658
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    Quote Originally Posted by dantheman4248 View Post
    I gave a back of the napkin estimate for the finality. Havent even been proven off of that original prediction either (which I said I didn't think we would do a good job with social distancing).

    This month is going to be interesting to see play out. Because I know personally I'm going stir crazy with quarantining and working from home. If our new cases day per total cases ratio kicks back up then we could be in for a bumpy ride.

    Also hating on these doctor's models when the opposite side was blatantly awful and their inaccuracy led to more deaths while the doctors models helped save lives by conveying the severity of the situation... I mean ffs we had people in the month of march saying there wouldn't be 30k cases in the US before the start of summer. It's barely into April and we already have 5 digit deaths in the country.

    Chastising people for perfectly predicting American behavior and Trump / State behavior is just silly. "Haha you were wrong we didn't have THAT many die." Well yea, that's the ****ing point.
    This is bullshit. you don't get extra credit for being chicken little. There is a lot of uncertainty in these types of decisions that make being "right" more or less impossible absent some blind luck. We still don't know, but there's a good chance we are going to find out that our policies made a bad situation a good bit worse. And saying "well at least we did something" isn't helpful to the people that are devastated or even dead b/c people freaked out.

  19. #1659
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    Fauci now stating that he thinks it will become seasonal.

    I guess we will have to shut down America forever...******************

  20. #1660
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    Quote Originally Posted by the_real_MSU_is_us View Post
    I'm sorry that the best available facts don't line up with what you immagine reality to be... seriously 7, you're a stats guy. Saying 'I don't buy" it can get that bad or "ix this part is really that bad then the other part must be not nearly as bad" are basically you stating "I arbitrarily decided it will only be X bad, so whatever formula of # infected x death rate must = X". You're smarter than to use hunches from your own ass in the face of what literal Dr's and nations with or evidence say.

    Death rates are probably closer to 1% than 3. And back to CHina- remember they quarantined Wuhan after only 500 confirmed cases, and took a lot more quarantine action elsewhere after I think 2,000 cases were confirmed. We've already had over 1,000 cases confirmed and aren't doing shit, so yeah it's reasonable to think the % of the population that gets it will be higher than China's was (or SK or that matter)
    Have you saw the latest projections?

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