Quote Originally Posted by the_real_MSU_is_us View Post
I'm sorry that the best available facts don't line up with what you immagine reality to be... seriously 7, you're a stats guy. Saying 'I don't buy" it can get that bad or "ix this part is really that bad then the other part must be not nearly as bad" are basically you stating "I arbitrarily decided it will only be X bad, so whatever formula of # infected x death rate must = X". You're smarter than to use hunches from your own ass in the face of what literal Dr's and nations with or evidence say.

Death rates are probably closer to 1% than 3. And back to CHina- remember they quarantined Wuhan after only 500 confirmed cases, and took a lot more quarantine action elsewhere after I think 2,000 cases were confirmed. We've already had over 1,000 cases confirmed and aren't doing shit, so yeah it's reasonable to think the % of the population that gets it will be higher than China's was (or SK or that matter)
China has been dealing with this since January. They're reporting 80,932 cases. Let's just say they're lying and it's 1000x worse than that... 80,932,000 cases. They're population is 1.4 billion, so that would mean 5.8% of the population has it. The deaths reported there 3,056. Let's say that's 1000x worse than reported... so 3.056 million deaths, which is 2.2% of population.

Now to US... if we get 50-170 million cases, that would be 15.2-51.5% of the population getting it. Just don't see how you can come up with that number with the data that is out there.