Are Recruiting Rankings Ruining College Football?

[Gutter Cobreh]

The sport is cyclical?

Could've fooled me. Time to put that narrative to bed.

As for the TV, I agree that has contributed, but I also think the apathy of knowing your team is playing for a crappy bowl has also set in.

U]Last 20 years - 11 different teams [/U]
YEAR SCHOOL SOURCE
2018 Clemson CFP
2017 Alabama CFP
2016 Clemson CFP
2015 Alabama CFP
2014 Ohio State CFP
2013 Flor State BCS
2012 Alabama BCS
2011 Alabama BCS
2010 Auburn BCS
2009 Alabama BCS
2008 Florida BCS
2007 La State BCS
2006 Florida BCS
2005 Texas BCS
2004 USC BCS
2003 La State BCS,
2002 Ohio State BCS
2001 Miami BCS
2000 Oklahoma BCS
1999 Flor State BCS

Just because the team you root for hasn't won a title doesn't mean the sport isn't cyclical. I don't remember Bama winning championships under Duboise or Shula. As Tale pointed out, 11 different teams have won it in the past 20 years.

[maroonmania]

Not at all. Reduce scholarships to 70 per team. One of the main strengths of the NFL is the parity in the league. But that did not happen by accident, but is the result of league policies. The NFL model promotes healthy competition but is much more socialistic in how it operates compared to MLB or the English Premier League.

Unfortunately though, in college, you can't make the top recruit sign with the worst D1 football team from the past season. Not only that, this easing up on transferring where it now seems like the majority don't even have to sit out a year, is only going to make things worse. Guys that couldn't get an offer from Bama out of HS but then prove themselves on the college level will now be welcomed at Bama with a scholarship via transfer and likely won't even have to sit out a year. So now the top programs can not only sign the highest rated recruits out of HS, but can also cherry pick transfers from other D1 football programs. Its like the best programs will get the #1 draft picks every year plus have the advantages in "free agency" as well. Basically its disgusting to how the rich will only get richer.

[BeastMan]

No. Manipulated subjective rankings heavily weighted by fan sites subs is not killing football.

[fader2103]

Poor attendance is due to the ease of watching the game on TV and the cost of attending a game in person.

Even Alabama with all of its success is renovating their stadium to reduce the number of seats and increase higher dollar suites. They're banking on their success continuing, but this sport is cyclical. They won't always be on top, and as such, will there always be a demand to attend their games when they aren't winning? Time will tell, but even they will face an attendance issue at some point.

This guy gets it. The SEC network and other conference affiliated channels are truly ruining football attendance.

As someone who has a growing family, it is easier for me to just watch my football at home than driving up to Starkville and back, throwing out at least 300 dollars on a trip for 4 with tickets, food, drinks, and gas money.

[ShotgunDawg]

No. Manipulated subjective rankings heavily weighted by fan sites subs is not killing football.

While what you say is true. It's pretty well established that you have to recruit at a certain level to have a chance.

[MedDawg]

Let's take a look at who has been recognized as the national champion by the NCAA since 1933 (the year the SEC was established). In the last 20 years 11 teams have claimed a natty, Since 1933, 29 teams have claimed the crown. There were also 17 other teams that can claim a natty since 1933 due to split polls before the BCS & CFP. Case in point Ole Miss in 1960. Alabama's dominance can be traced back to 2 major factors - their coaches, Saban and the Bear. Recruiting ranking may have distorted the program building process somewhat but it is the masterful work of the head coach that probably is the real difference maker.


source: NCAA
Authority: CFP, BCS & AP


Last 20 years - 11 different teams
YEAR SCHOOL SOURCE
2018 Clemson CFP
2017 Alabama CFP
2016 Clemson CFP
2015 Alabama CFP
2014 Ohio State CFP
2013 Flor State BCS
2012 Alabama BCS
2011 Alabama BCS
2010 Auburn BCS
2009 Alabama BCS

It's even more depressing since you can take Florida State out of contention and really Auburn too. That leaves Bama, Clemson, and Ohio State. Maybe add in Georgia and Oklahoma. 5 teams whose combine chances to win a NC are greater than the entire rest of FBS.

You are correct about the coaches. When Dabo retires Clemson will fall back to a Top 15-20 team. Bama will also fall when Saban leaves, but they won't fall as far. They will still be a Top 5-10 team but not a consistent favorite to win NC's.

[ShotgunDawg]

Just because the team you root for hasn't won a title doesn't mean the sport isn't cyclical. I don't remember Bama winning championships under Duboise or Shula. As Tale pointed out, 11 different teams have won it in the past 20 years.

So you're saying the sport is cyclical because Bama didn't dominate for about a 10 years period during which time they won the SEC title multiple times?

[Jack Lambert]

After listening to all the radio shows talk about the decline of college football attendance today, I began to wonder why.

There are many reasons why, but are recruiting rankings one of them?

Are recruiting rankings bringing about a Yankees vs Kansas City Royals feel to college football?

As more data is built that verify the importance of recruiting rankings, are they causing a resignation among many fan bases that are forced with the reality that unless their school attempts to cheat their ass off, they have no chance of winning anything?

Prior to recruiting rankings, were we all more ignorant on how we compared to championship caliber teams while now we fully understand that the sport is pointless unless you support 1 of about 10 schools?

I don't blame the recruiting guys because they found a way to make money by filling a void, but the education of talent to the masses could be contributing to people not caring any longer.

I think Saban is bad for the SEC.

[Dawgology]

1. Reduce schollies to 70 per team and 20 per year. No exceptions, period. 20.
2. Pay the players a slightly increased stipend.
3. Penalize cheating in a draconian fashion. Make it so harsh that a coach is automatically on the chopping block if the program gets caught.

These things will create parity and, in turn, increase attendance.

You are exactly right.

Since you can't "draft" high school athletes to college there has to be a way to induce parity. I think the AAF missed the boat. They should have made the league a minor league that pays football athletes right out of highschool to come play football. Kind of a minor league for football. I think this would actually introduce ALOT of parity in college football.

Also, the handful of contenders for the NC every year is killing the sport. Lack of parity or any controls have let a few teams take control of the entire sport through money and power. They are "too big to fail" at this point. You can say it's cyclical all you want (and it may have been in the past) but we are far past that now. The entire paradigm in college football has shifted to a power/control paradigm. Now, another dominant program may rise up over the next 10-20 years and replace Bama (doubt it) but is it REALLY cyclical if one cycle lasts an entire lifetime??

[BrunswickDawg]

I had season tickets for the first 6 years after I graduated (back in the 90s) - 45 yard line on the east side lower level. $120 a seat for the season. No donation required. No points dictating my seats. I ordered my season tickets, I got placed, and I kept that same seat for 6 years. That may not be the best way to fund raise to support the program - but it was affordable, and made it manageable to drive over from Atlanta 5 times a year. That same seat is $380 plus $150 donation - $530 a seat for 6 games. That's not bad, but not exactly affordable for every family of 4. I'd love to live close enough where it made sense for me to do it - but 10 hours each way is a bitch.

However, y'all need to keep some perspective about how inexpensive it is compared to most SEC schools. To get on the season ticket wait list at UGA, you need to have given $23,900 to the Bulldog Club. You will then spend $485 a seat per year for a seat comparable to the ones I had in section 19 at DWS. And you think getting in and out of Starkville is bad? Go to Athens on a game weekend. I have friends dropping 10k annually to stay in the priority points program to keep their seats - and that doesn't get you top end seats. That gets you corner endzone seats.

[Dawgology]

Just looking at NC winners sinces 1950 (and taking the AP results as the winner) it looks like the same 6 programs have won the NC over the past 68 years almost 60% of the time with another 9 teams winning it about 35% of the time. That leaves everyone elses chances at about 5% if the ball bounces just right and they recruit some "diamonds in the rough". When people say they are tired of the same teams winning every single year it's not about just one team it's just Bama at present and (honestly) Bama most consistently. That combined with the fact that 6 of those 15 teams over the past 68 years are from the SEC makes it a very difficult task for the smaller schools in the SEC to have any chance.

[ShotgunDawg]

Just looking at NC winners sinces 1950 (and taking the AP results as the winner) it looks like the same 6 programs have won the NC over the past 68 years almost 60% of the time with another 9 teams winning it about 35% of the time. That leaves everyone elses chances at about 5% if the ball bounces just right and they recruit some "diamonds in the rough". When people say they are tired of the same teams winning every single year it's not about just one team it's just Bama at present and (honestly) Bama most consistently. That combined with the fact that 6 of those 15 teams over the past 68 years are from the SEC makes it a very difficult task for the smaller schools in the SEC to have any chance.

Good stuff

What's crazy is that we've done it the right way & it's gotten us virtually no where.

We've been to 9 straight bowl games & now our season tickets sales & recruiting are begin to regress.

You'd think that 9 straight bowl games would allow you to see growth, but now we are being out recruited by terrible Arkansas & Ole Miss. What gives?

9 straight bowl games have brought us virtually zero extra brand awareness or sex appeal

[Dawgology]

Good stuff

What's crazy is that we've done it the right way & it's gotten us virtually no where.

We've been to 9 straight bowl games & now our season tickets sales & recruiting are begin to regress.

You'd think that 9 straight bowl games would allow you to see growth, but now we are being out recruited by terrible Arkansas & Ole Miss. What gives?

9 straight bowl games have brought us virtually zero extra brand awareness or sex appeal

That is about the lack of interest by our donators to play the game at a high level. I hate to say that but it's just the reality of recruiting in this day and age.

[BeastMan]

While what you say is true. It's pretty well established that you have to recruit at a certain level to have a chance.

You’re right about that but the rankings are manipulated. The Bama bump is a thing. It’s a chicken or egg argument but I think it’s all about coaching and the ncaa being a scam that has football how it is more than recruiting rankings. Selective enforcement and then when they do enforce its teethless. It would be like only getting probation if you got caught selling heroin. Everybody would do it because the benefit (wealth) outweighs the downside. The OM case was a signal to the country that nothing really happens.

[smootness]

Good stuff

What's crazy is that we've done it the right way & it's gotten us virtually no where.

We've been to 9 straight bowl games & now our season tickets sales & recruiting are begin to regress.

You'd think that 9 straight bowl games would allow you to see growth, but now we are being out recruited by terrible Arkansas & Ole Miss. What gives?

9 straight bowl games have brought us virtually zero extra brand awareness or sex appeal

It hasn't gotten us 'virtually nowhere'.

But the reality is, we had a great coach. He is gone now. We'll see if our current coach is capable of continuing that.

College football is about coaching combined with resources and pedigree. If you have a great history with a lot of resources, it makes it easier to find a great coach, easier to keep them, and it raises both your floor and your ceiling; where you fall within that range is about who you have as coach. Same with any program, where you fall in your range is about who your coach is.

It takes a long time and a ton of success to truly raise your floor/ceiling and exist on a different plane. That, or you have to have a truly elite coach.

[ShotgunDawg]

That is about the lack of interest by our donators to play the game at a high level. I hate to say that but it's just the reality of recruiting in this day and age.

Probably because they realized that no matter how much they spend, then can't outspend the blue bloods.

[Prediction? Pain.]

I think this is well said. It's not so much the recruiting rankings as much as being educated on just how little chance you have. It really makes you ask what the point is

Bud Elliot, the recruiting dude over at SB Nation, created the "Blue Chip Ratio" metric to track this. And, at least according to his data set (which he says goes back to the mid-aughts), the talent floor for championship-caliber teams is having a roster consisting of roughly 50% 4- and 5-star recruits. As of last summer, there were 13 teams with that level of talent and only four teams (including A&M and Florida from the SEC) within striking distance over the next year or two.

Good times, right?

[ShotgunDawg]

Bud Elliot, the recruiting dude over at SB Nation, created the "Blue Chip Ratio" metric to track this. And, at least according to his data set (which he says goes back to the mid-aughts), the talent floor for championship-caliber teams is having a roster consisting of roughly 50% 4- and 5-star recruits. As of last summer, there were 13 teams with that level of talent and only four teams (including A&M and Florida from the SEC) within striking distance over the next year or two.

Good times, right?

It just creates a feeling of apathy & helplessness for everyone else. Also when you consider, they are going into other states & buying player with selective enforcement by the NCAA, it's even more defeating

[Gutter Cobreh]

Good stuff

What's crazy is that we've done it the right way & it's gotten us virtually no where.

We've been to 9 straight bowl games & now our season tickets sales & recruiting are begin to regress.

You'd think that 9 straight bowl games would allow you to see growth, but now we are being out recruited by terrible Arkansas & Ole Miss. What gives?

9 straight bowl games have brought us virtually zero extra brand awareness or sex appeal

You think the baseball stadium renovation (rebuild) was funded from strictly baseball revenues or donations?

You're having a pity party regarding the probability of winning a national championship in football, all the while not focusing on the fact that this sport has helped elevate our entire athletic program and facilities to levels we never would have had. I wouldn't say our success or the conference's success in football has gotten us "no where". In fact, I'd say it's the single reason we're as successful in other sports.

As Brunswick pointed out, we as fans or alumni don't donate at the levels other programs do. Should we get upset and stomp and cry that the system isn't fair when all the other variables aren't the same?

[IMAREBL2 AND A DAWG]

The sport is cyclical?

Could've fooled me. Time to put that narrative to bed.

As for the TV, I agree that has contributed, but I also think the apathy of knowing your team is playing for a crappy bowl has also set in.

By cyclical I felt like he was speaking in terms of teams having a ten or fifteen year run at the top rather than football itself being up and down.
I had never really thought about your theory tbh but I think you could be on to something though. I?ve always been in the cost camp. I mean they are selling monstrous TVs now with pictures that are better than live images. You can also pause rewind slo-mo and even fast forward through commercials all while sitting in your recliner.
There?s a lot to be enjoyed by the pageantry of college football but it kind of loses its allure with the comforts of home and the money you?re saving.