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Tuesday Severe Weather Potential
Tomorrow is increasingly looking like a severe weather event for portions of MS and surrounding states. The biggest threat as of right now looks to be confined to areas along and south of a line from Natchez to Hattiesburg. Although, as you can see from the graphic below, the NWS thinks that higher end severe weather chances could spread north in the eastern part of MS and western AL tomorrow night. As of right now all modes of severe weather appear possible with the red shaded area having a chance of a few strong/violent tornadoes. The wind shear needed to get the storms rotating will be more than adequate tomorrow to spawn tornadoes. The biggest question is will be where the discrete supercells form and then how quickly do they merge into a squall line and then if it is a solid line or if there are breaks in it. If you live, or have friends and family that live in south LA, MS, or AL you need to remain weather aware tomorrow afternoon and night. I've seen a little model disagreement over timing but basically if you live around Baton Rouge and Natchez I would start really paying attention around 1:00 in case things get going early.
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