Quote Originally Posted by dawgday166 View Post
You know ... when your modeling something most of the time there is a lot of uncertainty. That's why you have to use your brain. As I said earlier you may understand probability and statistics, but it's obvious you don't understand football.

ETA: just getting those results should have caused you to question your GRAs and ICs.
I didn’t question it because I came into this year with the belief that second in the west was wide open. Any of the 4 of us, aTm, auburn, or LSU could grab (some with a higher chance than others, but still). Add to that my thought seeing 6 gimmes... yea my data made sense to me.

To put it another way, even if we went 11-1 with a loss to Bama I don’t think it would have been right to call us a top 10 team. I feel the West isn’t that good. Another factor is that once you cross the -500 threshold in gambling on CFB, the favorite wins an obscenely higher amount. So while you may disagree with my values at 99% for certain games, I felt they were reasonable.