The Covid-19 Info thread (keep politics out please)

[Jack Lambert]

Strange anecdotal case. My young nephew (under 6 months old) recently tested positive. His mom took him because he was showing symptoms of a cold (mild fever, runny nose, sneeze). Now, this kiddo was born back in March right in the teeth of the pandemic fear sweeping the nation. He's been kept at home since the beginning of this. Literally, hasn't left home since he was brought home from the hospital.

As such...only 5 people have come into contact with him. His parents and their parents. No one else has been allowed to the house and they all wear masks and wash hands constantly. Of course, once he tested positive all of them had to be tested. Here's the twist...none of them tested positive. Everyone is scratching their heads over how this little guy got it.

They might want to get him tested again to make sure it was correct. Now my bother had it and was in ICU. They traced it back to the Doctors office where he caught it.

[hacker]

New cases in Mississippi have been declining over the past few days. Very good news and I hope the trend continues.

Don't forget Sundays and Mondays are always slow reporting days.

[Johnson85]

It could have been contained much more if they had been truthful about it and it's transmission rates...or the fact that it was transmittable...recall they originally told everyone it couldn't be transmitted from human to human while hiding numerous cases.

It would have made a difference early on, which certainly could have reduced deaths in New York and Italy and other places it hit early, but at the end of the day, I'm not sure they could have prevented a respiratory virus like this from spreading. Of course it could have made it much less economically painful to hold off until a vaccine is available, but I'm not sure the resources get thrown towards a vaccine the same way if it didn't explode to begin with. Maybe we also don't have the panic though so we don't throw a bunch of economic damage from our response on top of the economic damage from the virus.

[confucius say]

Don't forget Sundays and Mondays are always slow reporting days.

Very true.
7 day average is down over 200 from last Monday.

And nationally, 7 day average is falling substantially. The graph should update about 9 pm tonight and it looks like it will drop a good bit again. Hope so.

[Dolphus Raymond]

Jacklambert, how long did it take your brother to recover? This is really a strange virus. I had a cousin catch COVID and then his wife caught it. One recovered with no problem at home, while the other ended up in the hospital for a week (Not in the ICU, however.)

[dantheman4248]

To be fair, the definition you posted and how Liverpool defined herd immunity are not the same thing at all.

gonna need you to break down the differences there because... you and especially cowbell are wrong until you can show me how you manipulated context clues to make his statement not mean similar to what I posted.

[Cowbell]

Strange anecdotal case. My young nephew (under 6 months old) recently tested positive. His mom took him because he was showing symptoms of a cold (mild fever, runny nose, sneeze). Now, this kiddo was born back in March right in the teeth of the pandemic fear sweeping the nation. He's been kept at home since the beginning of this. Literally, hasn't left home since he was brought home from the hospital.

As such...only 5 people have come into contact with him. His parents and their parents. No one else has been allowed to the house and they all wear masks and wash hands constantly. Of course, once he tested positive all of them had to be tested. Here's the twist...none of them tested positive. Everyone is scratching their heads over how this little guy got it.

Exact same thing happened with my wife. We had been self quarantining for weeks. Could have only gotten it from the mail or groceries.

[Cooterpoot]

Strange anecdotal case. My young nephew (under 6 months old) recently tested positive. His mom took him because he was showing symptoms of a cold (mild fever, runny nose, sneeze). Now, this kiddo was born back in March right in the teeth of the pandemic fear sweeping the nation. He's been kept at home since the beginning of this. Literally, hasn't left home since he was brought home from the hospital.

As such...only 5 people have come into contact with him. His parents and their parents. No one else has been allowed to the house and they all wear masks and wash hands constantly. Of course, once he tested positive all of them had to be tested. Here's the twist...none of them tested positive. Everyone is scratching their heads over how this little guy got it.

One of them could've had and been asymptomatic and given it him. Could've passed by the time they were tested. They should have an antibody test.

[msstate7]

I was just looking into our (MS) testing stats bc I hear we're leading the country in posi %, and I noticed this...









https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/...es/mississippi

Now this was just clicking random dates, so I'm not sure how many days like this there are. Think 3655 positives in 3655 total tests can skew positive %?

[hacker]

I was just looking into our (MS) testing stats bc I hear we're leading the country in posi %, and I noticed this...









https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/...es/mississippi

Now this was just clicking random dates, so I'm not sure how many days like this there are. Think 3655 positives in 3655 total tests can skew positive %?

That's why 7 day averages are useful. Some days tests are not updated on the MSDH website. They're dumped later. The negatives will be included in 7 day average, so no, I don't think it's skewed.

[msstate7]

That's why 7 day averages are useful. Some days tests are not updated on the MSDH website. They're dumped later. The negatives will be included in 7 day average, so no, I don't think it's skewed.

According to when you look at the 7-day avg. Right now, we're at 23.3%, but no negatives reported the last 2 days.

[hacker]

According to when you look at the 7-day avg. Right now, we're at 23.3%, but no negatives reported the last 2 days.

And the previous 5 days contain extra negatives from the previous dump. 10k tests reported last Wednesday, but we average about 6-7k a day. It averages out.

[Johnson85]

gonna need you to break down the differences there because... you and especially cowbell are wrong until you can show me how you manipulated context clues to make his statement not mean similar to what I posted.

No, that's you that is wrong. Your definition does not require that a person be immune for life for there to be some level of herd immunity as Liverpool claimed. Liverpool is defining herd immunity to be basically something that's never achieved. We have a pretty good measles vaccine and most people would say we have herd immunity, but we still occasionally have outbreaks (mostly because of morons, but some of those outbreaks presumably include people whose vaccine just did not give them immunity for one reason or another). There is a level where it's fair to say the resistance is so low that it's a misnomer to call it herd "immunity."

I think that would be a fair criticism of the definition you used with respect to something like the flu. Yes, we have resistance to the spread of the typical flu because of some cross immunity and vaccination, but we're still going to have 5-7% of the population get it most years. I think it's fair to say that's not any type of immunity, even if there is a resistance to spread.

[Johnson85]

And the previous 5 days contain extra negatives from the previous dump. 10k tests reported last Wednesday, but we average about 6-7k a day. It averages out.

Why do you think the negatives are reported later than the positives? Are you seeing that somewhere or are you just assuming they are eventually reported?

[hacker]

Why do you think the negatives are reported later than the positives? Are you seeing that somewhere or are you just assuming they are eventually reported?

Because looking at historical data, usually the day after no tests are reported, twice as many tests are reported. Then the following days it regresses to the mean.

[Johnson85]

Because looking at historical data, usually the day after no tests are reported, twice as many tests are reported. Then the following days it regresses to the mean.

I get that there are days that have dumps of prior tests. But why do you think they include just the negatives from days where positives were already reported? It doesn't seem far fetched to me that that would happen. I could see labs reporting positives as they come up, and then doing a weekly dump of the rest. But I wouldn't just assume that happens. Has MDS said that's what happening? Or do you see something in the data to suggest it?

[Dawgology]

There have been more than a few private clinics that were not reporting negative tests. That was remedied last week or two weeks ago I believe.

[hacker]

I get that there are days that have dumps of prior tests. But why do you think they include just the negatives from days where positives were already reported? It doesn't seem far fetched to me that that would happen. I could see labs reporting positives as they come up, and then doing a weekly dump of the rest. But I wouldn't just assume that happens. Has MDS said that's what happening? Or do you see something in the data to suggest it?

It just seems the most plausible explanation given that most weeks look something like this:

Monday: 0 tests reported
Tuesday: 10000 tests reported
Wednesday-Sunday: 5000 tests reported

[msstate7]

It just seems the most plausible explanation given that most weeks look something like this:

Monday: 0 tests reported
Tuesday: 10000 tests reported
Wednesday-Sunday: 5000 tests reported

Maybe so, but our neighboring states have wild fluctuations in test numbers, but they report total tests each day they report cases.

[msstate7]

Here comes Spain... over 5000 new cases today for first time since April 24th. 26 new deaths is most since June 5th.