The Covid-19 Info thread (keep politics out please)

[hacker]

You're never going to convince a guy sitting in rural Mississippi that this is bad or any different than the flu if they already have their mind made up. It doesn't take much education to look at a place like NYC and realize what the virus is capable of in both lethality and it's ability to spread. The numbers speak for themselves. You can be thankful you live in a place that is unlikely to have that type of outbreak yet still respect it for what it is.

Probably the truest post in the thread

[msstate7]

You're never going to convince a guy sitting in rural Mississippi that this is bad or any different than the flu if they already have their mind made up. It doesn't take much education to look at a place like NYC and realize what the virus is capable of in both lethality and it's ability to spread. The numbers speak for themselves. You can be thankful you live in a place that is unlikely to have that type of outbreak yet still respect it for what it is.

NY is being hit hard... there's no doubt about that. Their death rate is inflated though. I won't even question whether the 3700 added deaths are legit. They added 3700 to the numerator, but added nothing to the denominator. Do you think if 3700 people died of covid19 without being tested that there were/are only 3700 untested, unconfirmed out there?

[hacker]

NY is being hit hard... there's no doubt about that. Their death rate is inflated though. I won't even question whether the 3700 added deaths are legit. They added 3700 to the numerator, but added nothing to the denominator. Do you think if 3700 people died of covid19 without being tested that there were/are only 3700 untested, unconfirmed out there?

The medical examiners actually looked at the patients and put covid on those 3700 death certificates. Likely most of them died in their home before getting a test.

I'm sure it's not 100% accurate, but you wanna know how they come up with our official flu death stats?

"CDC uses a mathematical model to estimate the numbers of influenza illnesses, medical visits, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States"

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

I would think it's at LEAST as accurate as flu deaths.

[msstate7]

Denominator for what? If he's talking about closed cases, you just subtract the recovery rate from 100

Bc the closed cases are only for those that were tested. There's a boatload that weren't tested bc they never got sick.

[hacker]

Bc the closed cases are only for those that were tested. There's a boatload that weren't tested bc they never got sick.

How does that make my number wrong in the context of my post? Wouldn't it make his number wrong?

I was simply pointing out that an 80% recovery rate isn't something to be proud of because it means the other 20% died. If he said 85% recovered, I would've said 15% died.

[confucius say]

Probably the truest post in the thread

He is right, MS makeup makes it unlikely that we will ever have a NY type breakout. No other state in America has had anything close to NY. Which is exactly why it should be taken on a state to state basis.

More importantly, Geographical makeup also makes any herd immunity test like the Stanford one localized. You have to look at that area's infection rate and death rate.

[chef dixon]

NY is being hit hard... there's no doubt about that. Their death rate is inflated though. I won't even question whether the 3700 added deaths are legit. They added 3700 to the numerator, but added nothing to the denominator. Do you think if 3700 people died of covid19 without being tested that there were/are only 3700 untested, unconfirmed out there?

Even if they added 3700 that were completely inappropriate, they were clearly getting hammered before that. Folks keep looking for a death rate in a constantly evolving situation with so many variables. You're not going to get that accurately but other metrics can help. The overall deaths in NY the last month v the every month the last 20 years is a super simple graph to interpret and to me is very telling.

[chef dixon]

He is right, MS makeup makes it unlikely that we will ever have a NY type breakout. No other state in America has had anything close to NY. Which is exactly why it should be taken on a state to state basis.

More importantly, Geographical makeup also makes any herd immunity test like the Stanford one localized. You have to look at that area's infection rate and death rate.

I also agree with that. Need to start opening parts slowly. There is going to be spike when we reopen even if it's 3 months from now without a vaccine. A reliable antibody test could also make it easier to do safer so hopefully that can be established.

[Dawgfan77]

I also agree with that. Need to start opening parts slowly. There is going to be spike when we reopen even if it's 3 months from now without a vaccine. A reliable antibody test could also make it easier to do safer so hopefully that can be established.

Could be a spike in cases but the advancement in treatment will help people recover quicker. Those that have a positive test SIP and go through treatment

[chef dixon]

Could be a spike in cases but the advancement in treatment will help people recover quicker. Those that have a positive test SIP and go through treatment

No doubt. Test and shelter in place if positive is a must. I am a little less optimistic about a solid, effective treatment coming out though. Its not going to be hydroxychloroquine-azithromycin. People are already getting that in mass and a significant number of people are still getting hospitalized and dying. If you look at the history of viral respiratory illnesses in general, our treatments have been poor to mediocre at best. I don't see it changing with COVID-19, but would love to be wrong about that. Vaccine or herd immunity (which we are a good ways off from most likely) I think is where we are headed.

[confucius say]

NY is being hit hard... there's no doubt about that. Their death rate is inflated though. I won't even question whether the 3700 added deaths are legit. They added 3700 to the numerator, but added nothing to the denominator. Do you think if 3700 people died of covid19 without being tested that there were/are only 3700 untested, unconfirmed out there?

If you are going to use the Santa Clara test and apply it across the country like Hacker did above to come up with 380k deaths, that study suggests that almost all of NY has come into contact with the virus (50 to 80 times the number of confirmed cases). That would make NY death rate minuscule.

[msstate7]

The medical examiners actually looked at the patients and put covid on those 3700 death certificates. Likely most of them died in their home before getting a test.

I'm sure it's not 100% accurate, but you wanna know how they come up with our official flu death stats?

"CDC uses a mathematical model to estimate the numbers of influenza illnesses, medical visits, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States"

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

I would think it's at LEAST as accurate as flu deaths.

I literally said I'm not even questioning whether the deaths are legit. I just said the death rate would be inflated by just adding to the numerator with unconfirmed.

[msstate7]

If you are going to use the Santa Clara test and apply it across the country like Hacker did above to come up with 380k deaths, that study suggests that almost all of NY has come into contact with the virus (50 to 80 times the number of confirmed cases). That would make NY death rate minuscule.

If you go with the low end (50x) for the whole country, here's your new numbers...

35.5 million cases
New death rate: .0011

[hacker]

I literally said I'm not even questioning whether the deaths are legit. I just said the death rate would be inflated by just adding to the numerator with unconfirmed.

Ah, misunderstood your post.

From worldometers:

"Finally, since every probable death necessarily implies a probable case, logic mandates that the adjustment be made to both deaths and cases, and not only to deaths. We have now adjusted April 14, April 15, and current data for New York State and the United States accordingly."

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/us-data/

[msstate7]

Ah, misunderstood your post.

From worldometers:

"Finally, since every probable death necessarily implies a probable case, logic mandates that the adjustment be made to both deaths and cases, and not only to deaths. We have now adjusted April 14, April 15, and current data for New York State and the United States accordingly."

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/us-data/

Was it 1 case to 1 death? It should be more if so. I'm walking out door so didn't have time to read all

[Bass Chaser]

As we begin to do antibody testing, if someone is positive wouldn't that increase the number of cases?

[chef dixon]

As we begin to do antibody testing, if someone is positive wouldn't that increase the number of cases?

Would most likely indicate a past case that has resolved, so yes. From what I can tell we haven't nailed down the life cycle of this thing and how long the actual virus is active and shedding. If that time period is actually quite long, let's say 2 weeks or more, then it's possible the antibody test could be positive in a still active case.

[dantheman4248]

Why do I keep hearing that the key to reopening the country is widespread testing? Once you show sufficient symptoms to cause you to go get tested, wouldn't you 1) know to self isolate the same way as if you got a positive test result, and 2) have already infected people?

Seems to me the key to reopening would be the antibody test.

Getting these antibody tests out widespread for everyone would do wonders for accelerating the reopening of the economy.

The problem with the math is this isn't as lethal as it was once feared to be.

My most preliminary estimate was 500k dead and people said I was talking crazy in this very thread. Pretty sure you were one who questioned my self-proclaimed super-conservative estimate of 500k to be too lethal because of the death rate being too high. 2% vs. 1% (which was still 250k)

I don't agree with everything you say but i definitely agree that this is a huge step to getting things going in the right direction. I'm reaching out to some more folks I know to see what their doing with this and if similar results are being had. It is a reason for hope.

If only more people could realize that life is not black and white and that just because someone is on the opposite end of the political spectrum doesn't mean they can have good points, debates and discourse in this country would be infinitely better.

But you can't isolate everyone who "hasn't had it"... isolate those most vulnerable and in 2 weeks move on. You won't ever know who all had it or didn't. This thing isn't going away. And like the flu, some people just don't get it. With our wo the vaccine. Just like on the Navy ship where only 12.5 % of the people had it. And 60% of those were asymptomatic

Apologies, I should have expanded and clarified that sentence. When I said isolate, I meant in terms of knowing who they are and can be preventative for those who would be at severe risk and so they can know going forward and plan accordingly.

The antibody tests are very inaccurate. That's the problem right now. China is using them with no regard to their inaccuracies. They're giving a lot of false negatives and positives.

I was under the assumption that ours were not the same as China's.

there's a lot of "right" in this post... However, I believe in lieu of supporting those that don't or can't work, we oughta just cull em from the herd....

So we both agree that there is a problem; however, we have a difference in opinion on what the.. final solution should be.*** (Todd my joke was better.)

The CDC says it's recovery in 80% of infected. To me that's pretty damn good odds.

59% chance a family of four would lose 1 member or more.
74% chance a person would lose one of their parents/grandparents (given all 6 are alive)
99.6% chance at least 1 member in a group of 25 would die.

These are given that recovery rate and that all members in the sample get the virus. I'm sorry but that's absolutely horrible odds.

You're never going to convince a guy sitting in rural Mississippi that this is bad or any different than the flu if they already have their mind made up. It doesn't take much education to look at a place like NYC and realize what the virus is capable of in both lethality and it's ability to spread. The numbers speak for themselves. You can be thankful you live in a place that is unlikely to have that type of outbreak yet still respect it for what it is.

Speaking as someone living in a somewhat bigger city, this is so apparently a truth. Having lived in both it definitely makes it easier to recognize both sides and see the biases that each creates. "Walk a mile in the other's shoes."

It's been a trip watching the evolution of responses on this thread:

- "lol it's just China, something like that could never happen here"
- "it's just a media hoax"
- "it's just the flu"
- "oh well Italy's population is old and they're all smokers and every time they have family dinner they kiss and probably lay on top of each other. Crazy Italians!"
- "nothing to worry about, we won't have 10,000 cases by the summer"
- "it was just a nursing home in Seattle"

[US starts to lead the world in cases and deaths]
- "China lied and covered everything up! It's their fault!" (see first point above for irony)
- "WHO lied, we definitely would've been fine if it wasn't for them"
- "the numbers are inflated" (even though there are a shitload more people dying in general than the past 20 years)

[cases skyrocket to 30k per day, 2.5k deaths per day, but level off]
- "see it wasn't that bad! reopen america!"

[38000 dead in a month]
- "well it's actually not that lethal"


It's early and I haven't had my coffee but I'm sure I'm forgetting some.

You must spread rep around before giving to hacker again.

[Todd4State]

My most preliminary estimate was 500k dead and people said I was talking crazy in this very thread. Pretty sure you were one who questioned my self-proclaimed super-conservative estimate of 500k to be too lethal because of the death rate being too high. 2% vs. 1% (which was still 250k)

Not sure why you're patting yourself on the back here when you were way off.

[Dawgfan77]

You bring nothin to this board and I guess I don't really Bring that much either
But your post are insufferable.

Truth is there is more positive going on than negative but keep living for the end of the world

Also as if it's relative to anything else

My mom died of a viral infection in 16 as a result of complications from a stroke

My father has underlying health issues

But we don't live in fear