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Thread: The Covid-19 Info thread (keep politics out please)

  1. #401
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dawgology View Post
    Something more is going on with Italy. Their healthcare workers are getting infected at a very high rate at twice the rate of China. 20% of their family doctors are also infected. They also reported 1000+ recoveries yesterday which is a good sign.
    Yea, I think we're going to find out that they were inadvertently doing something very wrong or that they are actually facing a different strain or maybe some weird and very random confounding factor other than age and smoking. Or we'll see the final numbers and it will show that as bad as it was in Italy, their results for the patients receiving and not seeking treatment were similar to elsewhere.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Extendedcab View Post
    Update -

    As of Wednesday morning there were 6,519 cases and 114 deaths in the United States. This is a 1.748% death rate - so far anyway.
    You can't calculate it against total cases. You calculate it using resolved cases. We dont have enough resolved cases to use, and our first outbreak was at a nursing home. We don't know our death rate yet and wont for weeks

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    Quote Originally Posted by PMDawg View Post
    A week from today, we'll be 30,000+. Unless something changes very quickly between now and then.
    Don't tell Doggie_Style that.

    Quote Originally Posted by Doggie_Style View Post
    Complete bullshit....when it?s all said and done cases in the US won?t exceed 30,000....summer is close at hand

    @OldTakesExposed

  4. #404
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    Quote Originally Posted by hacker View Post
    Italy has tested the second most people per 1 million behind South Korea.

    I don't think the true fatality rate is 8.33% but those are the numbers right now. It'll be a lot lower when you count asymptomatic cases that haven't been detected.

    And I'm really just posting it more to show the trend. It's not getting better. Yet.

    Italy's health care system is in shambles. The quality of medical care someone receives contributes a lot to whether a person makes it or not.

    Edit: I think I meant half of my reply to be to the guy who told me to stop, lol
    Its still about half of what SK is testing. >5000 per million vs about 2200 per million
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...ting-data.html

    At the moment, the two outliers seem to be Iran and Italy, the highest mortality that I see outside of those two is about 4%. But they're also the two with the highest number of cases outside of China. So whether they are truly outliers or just ahead of the curve is yet to be seen at this point.
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

    ETA: Spain is at 4.5% and has the next highest # of cases. But the next 6 on the list in terms of # of cases are Germany (0.2% mortality), France (3%), US (1.5%), SK (1%) Switzerland (1%) and the UK (4%).
    Last edited by WeWonItAll(Most); 03-18-2020 at 02:03 PM.
    Far Moorhead yaw

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    Quote Originally Posted by deadheaddawg View Post
    The scary thing is Italy has MORE hospital beds per person that the USA. So for the people wanting to play down the severity of Italy because of the age, some of that will be offset by our lack of hospital beds.
    I'm thinking that's not true, unless you are just talking about actual mattresses rather than capabilities.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3551445/
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmc.../#6bac4b167f86

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    Quote Originally Posted by Johnson85 View Post
    I'm thinking that's not true, unless you are just talking about actual mattresses rather than capabilities.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3551445/
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmc.../#6bac4b167f86
    Take Florida. 20 million people, 5 million are over 60. They have less than 5,000 ICU beds in the entire state, most of which are taken by the usual needs. Let's say they convert other rooms to ICU equavalents, and now have twice as many beds. Theyd still just have about 7,500 beds free. And they cant grow ventilators on trees either, that supply is pretty much fixed.

    5,000,000 old people / 7,500 = 667 old people per bed. If even .15% of the old population need hospitalization at any given moment they're out of beds and certainly ventilators, and of course there would be many younger people in need of care too.

    As far as medical staff and equipment, I dont know much about the US vs Italy. What I do know is we will be out of N95 masks almost immediately (some places already are) and the US has fewer Drs per capita than most. So we will have a very big Dr shortage.

    The biggest problem seems to be ventilators. I'm sure here in a few weeks theyll figure out how to mass produce them, but for now the amount is basically fixed and pretty much everyone who needs hospitalization will need one

  7. #407
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    Quote Originally Posted by WeWonItAll(Most) View Post
    Its still about half of what SK is testing. >5000 per million vs about 2200 per million
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...ting-data.html

    At the moment, the two outliers seem to be Iran and Italy, the highest mortality that I see outside of those two is about 4%. But they're also the two with the highest number of cases outside of China. So whether they are truly outliers or just ahead of the curve is yet to be seen at this point.
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

    ETA: Spain is at 4.5% and has the next highest # of cases. But the next 6 on the list in terms of # of cases are Germany (0.2% mortality), France (3%), US (1.5%), SK (1%) Switzerland (1%) and the UK (4%).
    Yep, good info. I'd like to know what's going on in Germany. Their cases are growing fast now though.


  8. #408
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    Quote Originally Posted by WeWonItAll(Most) View Post
    Its still about half of what SK is testing. >5000 per million vs about 2200 per million
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...ting-data.html

    At the moment, the two outliers seem to be Iran and Italy, the highest mortality that I see outside of those two is about 4%. But they're also the two with the highest number of cases outside of China. So whether they are truly outliers or just ahead of the curve is yet to be seen at this point.
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

    ETA: Spain is at 4.5% and has the next highest # of cases. But the next 6 on the list in terms of # of cases are Germany (0.2% mortality), France (3%), US (1.5%), SK (1%) Switzerland (1%) and the UK (4%).
    This could be the Italian version of Babylon Bee for all I know, and on top of that it's running through Google Translate, so shaker of salt, but it appears to be claiming that all but two of the deaths in Italy had another pre-existing medical conditions going on. Of course if he including things like obesity as a pre-existing disease, that would not be comforting to the US.

    https://www.google.com/search?q=goog...hrome&ie=UTF-8

    https://www.agenzianova.com/a/5e6bcf...-sono-solo-due

  9. #409
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    Quote Originally Posted by StateDawg44 View Post
    Where did you get the info on the number of ventilators at OCH? I'm not saying it's not true. It's just a question.

    Could you cite the bolded? Until this happens, you're only speaking hypothetically based on stats of a very very small and new sample.

    It's possible yes, I'm not saying it's not. But you're acting as if we've lost the blueprint to how to make a new ventilator or that they are only made in one location and unable to move them.
    A doctor there was a frat brother of mine.

    Original numbers from the NPR story plus the number said by Dr Fanuci about the number of vents in the "national stockpile" we have.

    https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...gh-ventilators

    Here is a Study from 2007 with a lower number.

    https://www.cambridge.org/core/journ...0D6AD8E96F144D

    I'm not saying that it's impossible to make new Ventilators, I am saying that we need to be making them, a month ago.

    What is the delivery on ventilators? Who is paying for them? All of that still has to be answered.

    I have seen 90-120 day delivery. Assuming we have the parts...

    Meanwhile, the virus is spreading infection at 35% a day....That gives Northeast Mississippi less than a 2 weeks. (One case in Monroe county, will be over 120 in 2 weeks) 36 Mississippi cases will be 8,000 in 2 weeks.

  10. #410
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    I've seen estimates that Italy has 12.5 ICU beds per 100k population (~7500 ICU beds) in the entire country. There is an estimated 2000+ critically ill patients there currently from just this one illness. ICUs tend to stay about 65% occupied on a regular day in the USA. Just a savage scene over there I imagine. All the 300+ people dying daily there are just being reloaded by the day at a pretty scary rate. The more of those people that are being taken care of in the hallway of a hospital, the higher that death toll is going to rise.

  11. #411
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    Not being heartless but dang, medical sales reps in the ventilator business are about to make a truckload.

  12. #412
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    Quote Originally Posted by Johnson85 View Post
    This could be the Italian version of Babylon Bee for all I know, and on top of that it's running through Google Translate, so shaker of salt, but it appears to be claiming that all but two of the deaths in Italy had another pre-existing medical conditions going on. Of course if he including things like obesity as a pre-existing disease, that would not be comforting to the US.

    https://www.google.com/search?q=goog...hrome&ie=UTF-8

    https://www.agenzianova.com/a/5e6bcf...-sono-solo-due
    I saw that the average age in Italy of those who died from Covid back on Friday or Sat was still 81 years old (don't have the link for that one). I have no idea if it's moved any since then, but they had a substantial number of mortalities at that point.

    If the magic bullet for mortality is age, we'll be fine relative to global numbers. If it's pre-existing conditions, we're in trouble. Though those two things do go hand in hand to a degree of course, but we do love our diabetes, obesity and hypertension here.
    Far Moorhead yaw

  13. #413
    Senior Member gtowndawg's Avatar
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    Yeah, time for deadhead to take a break. WAY off base with the "Italy has more beds per person than the USA does" talk. The amount of bad info out there right now is frightening and that's a perfect example.



    https://www.niskanencenter.org/is-u-...e-coronavirus/

  14. #414
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    Quote Originally Posted by gtowndawg View Post
    Yeah, time for deadhead to take a break. WAY off base with the "Italy has more beds per person than the USA does" talk. The amount of bad info out there right now is frightening and that's a perfect example.



    https://www.niskanencenter.org/is-u-...e-coronavirus/

    B...B..But his sources are better than everyone else's and he knows which ones are right and wrong.

  15. #415
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    Quote Originally Posted by hacker View Post
    4,207 new cases, 475 new deaths in 24 hours, yes

    8.33% fatality rate overall
    Anything less than 10,000 added cases per day for Italy today, tomorrow, and/or Friday is actually a positive. It means they are starting to "flatten" the curve. The number of cases double every 3 days under "normal" circumstances.

    The US is still more than doubling its cases every 3 days, which means we are not yet taking drastic enough actions (translation = too many spoiled, entitled, self-centered people are not taking this seriously yet).

  16. #416
    General Public Political Hack's Avatar
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    European scientist predicted the spread of this in the US and UK. He anticipated more than 1 million deaths in the US alone based on the current mitigation strategy, rather than a more aggressive containment approach. We have possibly 2-3 weeks to get ahead of it by quarantining the country, but that's a very hard pill to swallow for free market fundamentalists. Be interesting to see what policies we follow moving forward.

  17. #417
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    Quote Originally Posted by gtowndawg View Post
    Yeah, time for deadhead to take a break. WAY off base with the "Italy has more beds per person than the USA does" talk. The amount of bad info out there right now is frightening and that's a perfect example.
    I said total beds, not ICU beds. I wasn't wrong, your very own article states the same thing I did. Your article argues that total beds are not really important. And that may be a great argument, but it is a different one that what I stated. But its cute that you will try so hard to find a gotcha moment. I am sure you will keep trying to find one. You will twist my comments. Which isn't surprising. I have triggered you. I'll wait on your next one

    The good news is I see people in this thread now talking about the actual deaths going on and they are not really being met with much resistance now. I am glad to see that. I am seeing more and more people now start to realize hospital overflow will be an issues. The "its the media crowd" and "stop overreacting" bunch are slowing shutting up as they start to realize they were wrong. Hopefully I will not be need to scold them for much longer

    Stay home if you can everyone
    Last edited by deadheaddawg; 03-18-2020 at 02:57 PM.

  18. #418
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    Quote Originally Posted by Political Hack View Post
    European scientist predicted the spread of this in the US and UK. He anticipated more than 1 million deaths in the US alone based on the current mitigation strategy, rather than a more aggressive containment approach. We have possibly 2-3 weeks to get ahead of it by quarantining the country, but that's a very hard pill to swallow for free market fundamentalists. Be interesting to see what policies we follow moving forward.
    I think we're heading in the right direction (finally). Governors are shutting things down inside their own borders. You'll see something from Tate Reeves tonight or tomorrow that will constitute a move in the right direction for Mississippi. I don't know if it will go far enough or not, but he's got something coming.

  19. #419
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    People, in general, are not taking it seriously. Its a half-assed effort to this point. There was video of hundreds of people yesterday strolling the sidewalks in San Francisco despite a town lock down. It is what it is at this point it seems. It'll probably eventually be herd immunity that slows it down rather than our interventions. The whole country is being reactive and disorganized and looks like we will be playing catch up for a while.

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    I'm not saying we are going to jump out of this by any means and I'm not trying to get political either but I would love to know how others feel about this. I have to say it sure feels like all the government regulations are being removed and we are about to see what the USA is really about when the private sector is able get going. I think we have to have the best of the best and these companies are about to get rolling making tests and PPE's and all this stuff that is needed.

    Maybe I'm living on a dream cloud?? I tend to be optimistic and try to look for something good in times of turmoil.

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