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Thread: The Covid-19 Info thread (keep politics out please)

  1. #1641
    Senior Member Todd4State's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dantheman4248 View Post
    We definitely have slowed this down a whole lot as a country. Credit needs to be given that we've gotten our heads out of our asses and are starting to see the effects of social distancing. Still, crossed into .1% of the country *PROVEN* infected with this. About 3% of that subset dead. Figure as it goes we'll see slightly better results.

    The exponential rate of growing is finally starting to hit its wall. Logarithmically we are starting to see this flatten. My fear was that we wouldn't see that until we broke the 1 million infected mark. Hopefully this continues to be the case and flattens more.

    Updating my prediction, i think this will have about a 1.75% death rate among proven cases w/ hopefully no more than 2% of the country proven infected. (That would be only around 100k deaths) That would be an astounding recovery that we made from where we were looking at a few weeks ago. Hopefully people understand this as proof social distancing works and that it helped save lives. These next two months are going to be rough. Let's see if we can keep it up.
    I think Dr. Fauci's models were way off to start with. But no doubt social distancing has still helped save lives.

  2. #1642
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    Quote Originally Posted by Todd4State View Post
    I think Dr. Fauci's models were way off to start with. But no doubt social distancing has still helped save lives.
    I kinda do too. But now that we're social distancing dantheman has a good explanation for how far his models were off too. Sorta like last year's football season ... he was only a tad off on that one *******

  3. #1643
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    Quote Originally Posted by dawgday166 View Post
    I kinda do too. But now that we're social distancing dantheman has a good explanation for how far his models were off too. Sorta like last year's football season ... he was only a tad off on that one *******
    I gave a back of the napkin estimate for the finality. Havent even been proven off of that original prediction either (which I said I didn't think we would do a good job with social distancing).

    This month is going to be interesting to see play out. Because I know personally I'm going stir crazy with quarantining and working from home. If our new cases day per total cases ratio kicks back up then we could be in for a bumpy ride.

    Also hating on these doctor's models when the opposite side was blatantly awful and their inaccuracy led to more deaths while the doctors models helped save lives by conveying the severity of the situation... I mean ffs we had people in the month of march saying there wouldn't be 30k cases in the US before the start of summer. It's barely into April and we already have 5 digit deaths in the country.

    Chastising people for perfectly predicting American behavior and Trump / State behavior is just silly. "Haha you were wrong we didn't have THAT many die." Well yea, that's the ****ing point.

  4. #1644
    Senior Member Todd4State's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dantheman4248 View Post
    I gave a back of the napkin estimate for the finality. Havent even been proven off of that original prediction either (which I said I didn't think we would do a good job with social distancing).

    This month is going to be interesting to see play out. Because I know personally I'm going stir crazy with quarantining and working from home. If our new cases day per total cases ratio kicks back up then we could be in for a bumpy ride.

    Also hating on these doctor's models when the opposite side was blatantly awful and their inaccuracy led to more deaths while the doctors models helped save lives by conveying the severity of the situation... I mean ffs we had people in the month of march saying there wouldn't be 30k cases in the US before the start of summer. It's barely into April and we already have 5 digit deaths in the country.

    Chastising people for perfectly predicting American behavior and Trump / State behavior is just silly. "Haha you were wrong we didn't have THAT many die." Well yea, that's the ****ing point.
    Dr Fauci said in January that Coronavirus wouldn't affect us at all. He has been consistently wrong the entire time. He has had to backtrack multiple times.

    And yeah- it's great that he was wrong in a good way. But I think he's getting way too much credit from people. Heck- Msstate7 on our board has been more right than Dr. Fauci. How come msstate7 isn't getting any accolades?

  5. #1645
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    Quote Originally Posted by Todd4State View Post
    Dr Fauci said in January that Coronavirus wouldn't affect us at all. He has been consistently wrong the entire time. He has had to backtrack multiple times.

    And yeah- it's great that he was wrong in a good way. But I think he's getting way too much credit from people. Heck- Msstate7 on our board has been more right than Dr. Fauci. How come msstate7 isn't getting any accolades?
    I'm not really gonna fault predictions from January / early Feb at this point. Not many people could think that we would have been so woefully incompetent at protecting ourselves while China malicious has spread it.

    Not saying he deserves every accolade he's receiving, but some context is needed. He's having to correct whatever idiot things our president says inaccurately and also manage to not piss off that same man who fires people constantly. Fauci started off in a hole a mile deep and is battling back to ground level.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dantheman4248 View Post
    I gave a back of the napkin estimate for the finality. Havent even been proven off of that original prediction either (which I said I didn't think we would do a good job with social distancing).

    This month is going to be interesting to see play out. Because I know personally I'm going stir crazy with quarantining and working from home. If our new cases day per total cases ratio kicks back up then we could be in for a bumpy ride.

    Also hating on these doctor's models when the opposite side was blatantly awful and their inaccuracy led to more deaths while the doctors models helped save lives by conveying the severity of the situation... I mean ffs we had people in the month of march saying there wouldn't be 30k cases in the US before the start of summer. It's barely into April and we already have 5 digit deaths in the country.

    Chastising people for perfectly predicting American behavior and Trump / State behavior is just silly. "Haha you were wrong we didn't have THAT many die." Well yea, that's the ****ing point.
    Just giving you a hard time dude cause ... you're so sensitive about it LOL. I think it's serious shit and would be more serious without social distancing. I feel a lot for those folks in NY ... I do. Would 2 or 3 mill die tho ... kinda skeptical on that one but it's probably better off to be safer than sorry. Especially now that we've started down this path. Unless of course you can't eat or put a roof over your head and your kids' too after this is all over ... I feel a lot for those folks too.

    Trump does some things I like, and some things I don't. Relative to this tho ... he has some tough trades he has to make while listening to experts who are still grasping at the severity of the situation themselves every single day. And he's not doing a bad job of that. Part of the reason he changes his tune every day is cause they keep changing their tune.

    EVERYONE was wrong back in January. Fauci, Pelosi, Cuomo, the NY mayor, the Mich gov ... etc. But I don't hold it against them cause ... no one really knew at that time. The only ones that were smart are the senators and congressmen who made several mill by getting out of the stock market. I do hold that against them.

  7. #1647
    Senior Member Todd4State's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dantheman4248 View Post
    I'm not really gonna fault predictions from January / early Feb at this point. Not many people could think that we would have been so woefully incompetent at protecting ourselves while China malicious has spread it.

    Not saying he deserves every accolade he's receiving, but some context is needed. He's having to correct whatever idiot things our president says inaccurately and also manage to not piss off that same man who fires people constantly. Fauci started off in a hole a mile deep and is battling back to ground level.
    OK- how about his predictions that were off in March about how many people would die? Even the models that showed the "best case" scenario from him were way too high. And I can't buy that ALL of the good news is due to social distancing. Even the White House is starting to not believe him.

  8. #1648
    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Oktibbeha county with its first death. It was an 89 year old woman.

  9. #1649
    Senior Member hacker's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Todd4State View Post
    OK- how about his predictions that were off in March about how many people would die? Even the models that showed the "best case" scenario from him were way too high. And I can't buy that ALL of the good news is due to social distancing. Even the White House is starting to not believe him.
    I'm pretty sure the best case scenario has always been 100k dead and we'll get there. ~1200 dying each day currently, that number will continue to grow before it plateaus and slowly drops.

    (And only a fraction of a percent of our population has been infected so far)
    Last edited by hacker; 04-06-2020 at 08:24 AM.

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