Along the same lines, I just saw this
https://www.latimes.com/science/stor...thout-symptoms
Printable View
Along the same lines, I just saw this
https://www.latimes.com/science/stor...thout-symptoms
For all of you who've been saying it was around earlier......
https://www.latimes.com/california/s...early-february
Confirmed Feb. 6th death in Santa Clara. Article says it may have been in Cali in December.
By the way, the reason it always seems so "accurate" is because every few days they update it. They also remove their historical projection and put the actual deaths on the chart.
The model they released on 4/9 (the one where deaths first dropped to 60k) projected our peak at 1900 deaths and was down to 1400 yesterday.
Historical models here:
https://www.covid-projections.com/
Anyway, this model is bad because they pre-selected a bell curve with the peak lasting for a day or two and then dropping. We've been plateaued at around 26k - 32k new cases for the entire month of April.
The 4/9 model also had Spain and Italy at less than 50 daily deaths by now. They're both still around 500 deaths per day.
I don't know if that is the case here but it is happening. I think the money is being given out equally to each state. I remember seeing somewhere NY was getting 12K per Corna case and Nebraska was receiving 300k per case. I do believe the virus has been with us a lot longer than reported. First of all I don't trust the Chinese and I think they were Knowingly letting their people fly from and to China with the virus everywhere around the world.
Adjusting it is a good point.
Has the number of tests daily remained the same throughout April? I honestly don't know. If testing has increased, the same amount of cases daily would be actually be a good thing though, right? If testing has remained the same, then not so much
It's also plateaued. Dunno what happened on April 4
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWKBhqJV...jpg&name=large
Cares act
Under the legislation, hospitals can receive 15 percent additional funding from Medicare if they report patients who aren?t initially admitted to the hospital for COVID-19 but then while admitted either test positive initially or as ?secondary diagnosis.?
The bill states: ?For discharges occurring during the emergency period described in section 1135(g)(1)(B), in the case of a discharge that has a principal or secondary diagnosis of COVID?19, the Secretary shall increase the weighting factor for each diagnosis-related group (with such a principal or secondary diagnosis) by 15 percent.?
If the number of cases is small enough, you can use the test to contain the spread, but now that it's pretty widespread, they're projecting we need something crazy like 21 million tests a day or week to start with now for that containment strategy. That's why I think the continued shutdown when we have excess hospital capacity is counterproductive. If the people I am reading know what their talking about (and I don't know enough ot really judge their credentials), we aren't going to get close to the testing capacity needed to contain the spread through testing and contact tracing, so we're just extending teh pain for mostly no benefit at this point.
You need both
An antibody test to see who has had it, (and throetically can end social distancing)
And a test to see who has it now. So you can isolate them and contact trace.
By being able to isolate the people that have it, and release the immune, we can open back up faster.
Otherwise we are just yoyoing around overwhelming the medical system...