Originally Posted by
dantheman4248
Hard to make a prediction THAT far out. That's trying to project A. our ever changing response and B. multiple months down the road once we can see where the bell curve hits in a country that's not doing near what it should to cull it. Assuming that we do what America / our leadership does, I think our self quarantining will inevitably fail and people will go back to work because they need money. This will cause a bigger spread than most every other country. How that projects out is unclear. It's not unreasonable to see where by the end of the calendar year we've had 10+% of the country infected with it. From that percentage I'd also guesstimate about average death rate. (Which so far looks to be 10% of closed (recovered or dead) cases. I'd adjust that down to at most 5% due to just guestimating that half of the people who want to get tested are turned away.) In fact I think that 10% itself goes down by at least half as we make more progress. So we'll say 2% to be conservative. So taking a conservative shot of 10% infected and 2% death rate, that projects to 650k deaths in America. I'd be predicting more conservatively here, so my final guess would be about 500k deaths in America. But that's a very rough estimate.
Now I could be (and hope) wrong about our response, but we've missed our window to cull this. We've missed it badly. I don't see us going on pause for more than 2 months. It's simply not viable. Not without universal basic income which it seems we have decided to "fix" the initial idea and make it absolutely worse. So yea, another not good signal that we're gonna botch this.
It's crazy. Should have never gotten to this point. Should have shut down the borders earlier and had rigorous testing and quarantining. That can't be forgotten when this is all over. But for now we need to come together and start making smart decisions. Injecting $2k into every american home is a smart decision. Fiddling with it, lowering it, and scaling it to give poor people EVEN LESS is a totally bad idea. How this is even in discussion let alone actually going to happen is beyond comprehension.