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The Bama vs. umiss line is surprisingly low in my opinion. Does Vegas know something we don't?
Do they think umiss is better than they look, or are they trying to keep people from loading up on Bama? If the line were higher, say 2 touchdowns, would the money be going on Bama or umiss?
I do think Umiss is better than they've looked in the two games that most people saw (Boise and Memphis). It also looks like Alabama is not as dominant as we're used to seeing them. In my mind, the game is Bama -3 or so. I'm not a sports bettor, so I don't know what the line is.
I know historically, UMISS has played bama close but always lost most years. Maybe they think this is their super bowl this season and they'll be able to keep it close again. Plus, they have to be swayed by the high but undeserved ranking and that is costing a bama a couple of points.
Judging by how the line is moving... if they are trying to prevent folks from loading up on Bama, they aren't doing a very good job.
The line seems low to folks like us who are very familiar with both teams, but, to an outsider looking in, the #10/11 team in the country IS getting 4+ points AT HOME
home field is always good for 4-5 points, so the experts say.
Vegas had LSU as a 9 point over us- we were up 34-10 in the 4th. Vegas sets a line they think people will bet evenly on
The whole country also has been subject to the hype machine for a couple of years. The average gambler in California might see road opponent in a top 11 matchup being favored and throw down on OM.
But as we see the line is quickly moving.
People also look at some lines and think that they may be wrong or that vegas knows something they don't, thus the don't bet those games.
2 good defenses
Makes sense, but umiss has looked mediocre on offense.
Like Coach said, you need to understand how the lines work. They are simply trying to get even action on both sides. The line opened at Bama -4 and it has already moved to Bama -6.5. Ole Miss is a good team that will be playing in front of a sold out, excited crowd. The line would have to be Bama -14.5 before I would take Ole Miss though.Quote:
Originally Posted by sandawg
Remember Vegas is not saying that Bama is 4 points better than OM. They are saying 4 points (now 6.5) is the number required for the exact same amount of people to bet on Bama and OM allowing us to make our money on the vig. They know that all of the majority of the country knows is OM's ranking. Most of the country does not know that OM can't run, stop the run, have a schizophrenic QB and are perhaps the most undisciplined team in college football. As people do more research and see what OM is truly all about, the line will continue to rise and probably settle somewhere between 8 and 10.
I understand how it works, but some lines are not what they seem. I've been around for a while and I bet some, but this still looks funny to me. Vegas has been known to do things like this to trick bettors, it wouldn't be the first time it has happened. Usually the favorite wins big, the lower line is to make people think there may be something wrong. The line would be there to make people think it was a trick. If umiss stays within 2 touchdowns I will be surprised, but that's just me. The other line of thought is that umiss is going to cover or win and they set the line low to attract Bama bets. Just doesn't look high enough to me. If it were 14.5 or 15, then I see even money bets, but this line looks as if the are trying to manipulate the betting trends to Bama, or it's a setup and umiss covers.
By this post, it is clear that you don't.Quote:
Originally Posted by sandawg
Perhaps this has something to do with it:
09/28/14 QB Blake Sims Shoulder injured last game, probable Saturday vs. Mississippi
There is your answer.Quote:
Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg
Well, I'll disagree with that, but didn't start this to argue. Seems starkvegasdawg found the answer.Quote:
Originally Posted by HoopsDawg
No, a probable designation would not effect the line in any way. Sims is fine.Quote:
Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg
Exactly. If Sims was really questionable for the game, there would be no line out right now.Quote:
Originally Posted by HoopsDawg
Actually, it's more like 3. Varies a little, but not that much.Quote:
Originally Posted by jumbo
This is a common misperception of the public. I've heard interviews with sportsbook linemakers who say they want to be on one side or the other and are sweating it out every week just like we are.Quote:
Originally Posted by HoopsDawg
Exactly, they think UM will keep it close and Vegas is clearly wrong this time...
They do make mistakes, just not very often..
I thought it was 3 for pro football and 7 for college.Quote:
Originally Posted by blacklistedbully
Vegas knows the bear faithful combined level of delusion is at an all time high and they are cashing in on it. Setting this line draws in the oblivious comatose voters along with the line actually playing into the hyped delusion of the bear faithful.
Some ESPN analyst on Finebaum just laid out the plan for a Bear win. He says Bo just needs to throw for 300+ yards and if he does they have a great chance to win. Saban is 3-4 when a team throws for over 300 he said. Matt Wyatt is also convinced the Mississippi D is legit and the best in the SEC or so he said to start the show today. He also said this game is squarely on Bo's shoulders because he believes Bama can't score more than 24 on the Bear D.
Me personally, I think Bama handles their business and the Bear O-Line and Run Defense gets exposed in a 10 point loss. We'll know a whole lot more about the Bears after Saturday because they haven't played anything close to a decent team yet IMO.
The best plan for a Bear win, is for Bama not to show up literally. Bama's 4th team would roll Memphis and Boise with ease. This one will get ugly due to lack of quality and experienced depth on both sides of the ball for the Bears. Nobody is talking about that. They are top heavy with talent and have little experienced depth. Kimchee and Co will be sucking eggs come haltime and will never recover.Quote:
Originally Posted by tupelopix
I'm willing to bet you guys 80%+ of the money is coming in on bama right now... Maybe even 90%... Would not be surprised to see the line grow to 9/10, only to see reverse line movement come Friday night.
This will be a close game. Bama will win, as they always do, but it will be close. Sims and BoDirt will both struggle. Neither are very good, so it comes down to defense...
Cooper will have around 9 catches for 150 yards and the bama running backs will total about 170 yards rushing. They'll win 34-10.
97% (lol) of the money is on Bama
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/matchups/
Something isn't adding up...