What does Vegas know?

[Red Sox Dawg]

The Bama vs. umiss line is surprisingly low in my opinion. Does Vegas know something we don't?
Do they think umiss is better than they look, or are they trying to keep people from loading up on Bama? If the line were higher, say 2 touchdowns, would the money be going on Bama or umiss?

[drunkernhelldawg]

I do think Umiss is better than they've looked in the two games that most people saw (Boise and Memphis). It also looks like Alabama is not as dominant as we're used to seeing them. In my mind, the game is Bama -3 or so. I'm not a sports bettor, so I don't know what the line is.

[starkvegasdawg]

I know historically, UMISS has played bama close but always lost most years. Maybe they think this is their super bowl this season and they'll be able to keep it close again. Plus, they have to be swayed by the high but undeserved ranking and that is costing a bama a couple of points.

[LiterallyPolice]

Judging by how the line is moving... if they are trying to prevent folks from loading up on Bama, they aren't doing a very good job.

[Covercorner2]

The line seems low to folks like us who are very familiar with both teams, but, to an outsider looking in, the #10/11 team in the country IS getting 4+ points AT HOME

[jumbo]

home field is always good for 4-5 points, so the experts say.

[Coach34]

Vegas had LSU as a 9 point over us- we were up 34-10 in the 4th. Vegas sets a line they think people will bet evenly on

[Smitty]

The whole country also has been subject to the hype machine for a couple of years. The average gambler in California might see road opponent in a top 11 matchup being favored and throw down on OM.

But as we see the line is quickly moving.

[Red Sox Dawg]

People also look at some lines and think that they may be wrong or that vegas knows something they don't, thus the don't bet those games.

[MadDawg]

2 good defenses

[Red Sox Dawg]

Makes sense, but umiss has looked mediocre on offense.

[HoopsDawg]

People also look at some lines and think that they may be wrong or that vegas knows something they don't, thus the don't bet those games.

Like Coach said, you need to understand how the lines work. They are simply trying to get even action on both sides. The line opened at Bama -4 and it has already moved to Bama -6.5. Ole Miss is a good team that will be playing in front of a sold out, excited crowd. The line would have to be Bama -14.5 before I would take Ole Miss though.

[Tailgate Superstar]

Remember Vegas is not saying that Bama is 4 points better than OM. They are saying 4 points (now 6.5) is the number required for the exact same amount of people to bet on Bama and OM allowing us to make our money on the vig. They know that all of the majority of the country knows is OM's ranking. Most of the country does not know that OM can't run, stop the run, have a schizophrenic QB and are perhaps the most undisciplined team in college football. As people do more research and see what OM is truly all about, the line will continue to rise and probably settle somewhere between 8 and 10.

[Red Sox Dawg]

I understand how it works, but some lines are not what they seem. I've been around for a while and I bet some, but this still looks funny to me. Vegas has been known to do things like this to trick bettors, it wouldn't be the first time it has happened. Usually the favorite wins big, the lower line is to make people think there may be something wrong. The line would be there to make people think it was a trick. If umiss stays within 2 touchdowns I will be surprised, but that's just me. The other line of thought is that umiss is going to cover or win and they set the line low to attract Bama bets. Just doesn't look high enough to me. If it were 14.5 or 15, then I see even money bets, but this line looks as if the are trying to manipulate the betting trends to Bama, or it's a setup and umiss covers.

[HoopsDawg]

I understand how it works, but some lines are not what they seem. I've been around for a while and I bet some, but this still looks funny to me. Vegas has been known to do things like this to trick bettors, it wouldn't be the first time it has happened. Usually the favorite wins big, the lower line is to make people think there may be something wrong. The line would be there to make people think it was a trick. If umiss stays within 2 touchdowns I will be surprised, but that's just me. The other line of thought is that umiss is going to cover or win and they set the line low to attract Bama bets. Just doesn't look high enough to me. If it were 14.5 or 15, then I see even money bets, but this line looks as if the are trying to manipulate the betting trends to Bama, or it's a setup and umiss covers.

By this post, it is clear that you don't.

[starkvegasdawg]

Perhaps this has something to do with it:

09/28/14 QB Blake Sims Shoulder injured last game, probable Saturday vs. Mississippi

[Liverpooldawg]

Perhaps this has something to do with it:

09/28/14 QB Blake Sims Shoulder injured last game, probable Saturday vs. Mississippi

There is your answer.

[Red Sox Dawg]

By this post, it is clear that you don't.

Well, I'll disagree with that, but didn't start this to argue. Seems starkvegasdawg found the answer.

[HoopsDawg]

Perhaps this has something to do with it:

09/28/14 QB Blake Sims Shoulder injured last game, probable Saturday vs. Mississippi

No, a probable designation would not effect the line in any way. Sims is fine.

[C222]

No, a probable designation would not effect the line in any way. Sims is fine.

Exactly. If Sims was really questionable for the game, there would be no line out right now.