Severe Weather Threat: December 21

Okay. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has issued their Day 2 Convective Outlook and here is what they've come up with.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/out...2otlk_1730.gif
So basically all of LA, the AR Delta, and over half of MS are in the Moderate Risk area for Saturday. This means that they are predicting a good chance of severe weather this Saturday. The main threats associated with this system are high winds and tornadoes. Most of the threat will be later on Saturday so plan accordingly.

Ref, you think they might upgrade it to a PDS Saturday.?

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Originally Posted by bully99

Ref, you think they might upgrade it to a PDS Saturday.?

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Way too early to tell at this moment. They usually reserve PDS for watches/warnings. The word on the Twittersphere however is that there will be a large gathering of storm chasers in the Ark-La-Miss for this event.

FWIW, Greg Forbes has assigned a Tor:Con value of 6 for the area which is about what I expected given the Moderate Risk.

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Originally Posted by TheRef

Way too early to tell at this moment. They usually reserve PDS for watches/warnings. The word on the Twittersphere however is that there will be a large gathering of storm chasers in the Ark-La-Miss for this event.

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I'll be one of them, ref. Can't wait.

I, however, will be back in the promised land (Starkville) for my grandfather's 97th birthday. If it wasn't for that, I'd be at home grabbing the truck and finding me a nice spotting area just south of my location.

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Originally Posted by TheRef

FWIW, Greg Forbes has assigned a Tor:Con value of 6 for the area which is about what I expected given the Moderate Risk.

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What was tor/con 04/27/2011?

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Originally Posted by DLGDawg

What was tor/con 04/27/2011?

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I believe it was 8/9. They had high risk on the Day 2 outlook.

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Originally Posted by TheRef

I, however, will be back in the promised land (Starkville) for my grandfather's 97th birthday. If it wasn't for that, I'd be at home grabbing the truck and finding me a nice spotting area just south of my location.

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What are some good viewing spots in/around Greenville?

Thanks. Hopefully we won't see another 4/27 for hundreds of years.

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Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

What are some good viewing spots in/around Greenville?

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Go South of town to the GHEC. You can't miss it. It's on the East side of Highway 1. East of town you can line up East of Leland and look across the fields. Another good option could be Highway 438 which is South of town. If you have to go North of town, I'd suggest going towards Winterville and setting up near the Indian Mounds.

Here's a link to the TVNweather Live Chasing feed. This is a portal or dashboard type of application where you can follow storm chasers on the map and get live feeds from the car's camera when they're chasing tornadoes.
http://tvnweather.com/live
/Thread Hijack

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Originally Posted by Interpolation_Dawg_EX

Here's a link to the TVNweather Live Chasing feed. This is a portal or dashboard type of application where you can follow storm chasers on the map and get live feeds from the car's camera when they're chasing tornadoes.
http://tvnweather.com/live
/Thread Hijack

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Not much of a hijack since this is a weather related thread. I'm sure Reed will be in the area.

At one point on that day Forbes had a Tor-Con of 10. May be only 10 he's given since he started it a few years ago.

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Originally Posted by bully99

At one point on that day Forbes had a Tor-Con of 10. May be only 10 he's given since he started it a few years ago.

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I believe it was late in the day about 3 or 4 hours before the Tuscaloosa tornado.

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Originally Posted by TheRef

Go South of town to the GHEC. You can't miss it. It's on the East side of Highway 1. East of town you can line up East of Leland and look across the fields. Another good option could be Highway 438 which is South of town. If you have to go North of town, I'd suggest going towards Winterville and setting up near the Indian Mounds.

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Thanks. Greenville looks to be about center of the shaded area the NWC has outlined as ground zero. Would love to stay in ms if possible. Last time went into Arkansas just south of Eudora and caught my one and only tornado so far.

So when can we expect this weather to enter MS and how long will it be here?

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Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg

Thanks. Greenville looks to be about center of the shaded area the NWC has outlined as ground zero. Would love to stay in ms if possible. Last time went into Arkansas just south of Eudora and caught my one and only tornado so far.

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Greenville definitely seems to be the epicenter. Also, you have many routes to go from there. Highway 1, 61, 82, 65, and 49 to some extent.

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Originally Posted by Interpolation_Dawg_EX

So when can we expect this weather to enter MS and how long will it be here?

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SPC seems to be saying around sunset. This is all dependent on how fast this front comes through and will be better through the updates.

For those of you curious to know the thinking for the National Weather Service in Jackson, MS. Here is a video of their special weather briefing for the severe weather event.
http://youtu.be/Qcje892MFOQ

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Originally Posted by TheRef

For those of you curious to know the thinking for the National Weather Service in Jackson, MS. Here is a video of their special weather briefing for the severe weather event.
http://youtu.be/Qcje892MFOQ

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Looks like they are saying more squall line event and not discrete supercells.

Here's another weather site I follow .. ChaserTV

Looks like it's starting up just South of Vicksburg. I see radar-indicated rotation on the lowest two tilts between Vicksburg and Port Gibson.

Tornado warning for Warren, Claiborne, and Hinds Counties until 5:30 CST.

Hey Ref, did you grow up in greenvegas? That's my hometown.

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Originally Posted by Drugdog

Hey Ref, did you grow up in greenvegas? That's my hometown.

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I sure did. I'm actually here right now. Went to Washington for High School.

Me too. Class of 83.

Urban legend is that Gville can't be hit by Tornado because of the levees..

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Originally Posted by Drugdog

Urban legend is that Gville can't be hit by Tornado because of the levees..

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I always thought it was the curse of the bridge. Winterville and Leland, however, are not protected.

My dad used to own the apts on upper lake Ferguson Road. About 35 yrs ago a tornado hit by them. My wife took a pix of two tornados in a cotton field off hwy 61 after leaving DSU. Delta weather can be crazy. Wish I was chewing down on some tamales and fries from Does..man I miss that place.

Congrats, guys. We've been upgraded to 7 on Tor:Con by Greg Forbes.

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Originally Posted by TheRef

Tornado warning for Warren, Claiborne, and Hinds Counties until 5:30 CST.

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Damn. I thought all this was for tomorrow. How about Lamar county?

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Originally Posted by DownwardDawg

Damn. I thought all this was for tomorrow. How about Lamar county?

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Just a rogue cell. It wanted to be a rebel. No pun intended.

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Originally Posted by TheRef

Just a rogue cell. It wanted to be a rebel. No pun intended.

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Lol. Ok thanks. Keep this thread updated. Love these reports!!!

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Originally Posted by DownwardDawg

Lol. Ok thanks. Keep this thread updated. Love these reports!!!

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I'll be away from a computer for most of the day tomorrow. I'll update when I can though. I'm sure Starkvegasdawg and Slick will be watching the weather pretty closely so maybe they can update as much as possible. I'll try to update tomorrow morning with the latest NWS discussion and other things. Y'all just stay safe and have a weather radio nearby during this event.

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Originally Posted by TheRef

I'll be away from a computer for most of the day tomorrow. I'll update when I can though. I'm sure Starkvegasdawg and Slick will be watching the weather pretty closely so maybe they can update as much as possible. I'll try to update tomorrow morning with the latest NWS discussion and other things. Y'all just stay safe and have a weather radio nearby during this event.

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Indeed. I'm in greenwood now and depending on how things look will probably set up in Greenville tomorrow and then go from there depending on where storms fire. Tor:con for the delta region is now 7/10 so things looking ripe for some explosive storms. My guess is that any storms that develop ahead of the main line will have an excellent chance of going tornadic. Ref had excellent advice with the weather radio. One of the best investments you will ever make. Can get a handheld for $40. My advice. Take every warning seriously. Much better to take cover on a false alarm than to ignore a warning and it be the real deal. Lastly, any tornadoes forming in the main squall line have good chance of being rain wrapped and impossible to see. Will update when I can here but will mainly be updating on twitter. Find me at @mschaser.

This is very good info. Please keep it up.

Reading the latest discussions, it looks like there will be two lines. One line of discrete cells which will be the main tornado threat with the squall line soon afterwards which will carry high winds >50 mph. This is definitely a situation I'd watch closely. Like I said earlier, I will post as much as I can given the situation I will be in. But the main threat for MS will begin around 4 pm from early indications but that can change very quickly. I'll try to give an early-morning bump while I'm on the road (not driving, of course. Safety first.). But don't be surprised to see a 25 degree change in temperatures from pre-front and post-front. It doesn't look like we will have any wintry precipitation chances after this line pushes through so what's happening in OK doesn't look to happen to us in MS. So y'all be safe and stay "weather-aware". Keep a reliable source of weather information nearby all day tomorrow, if you can.

SPC just did their Day 1 Outlook which is valid for tomorrow. We are still in the Moderate Risk categorical area. We are also within the 15% hatched area. Which means that we have a 15% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of the area but also a 10% or greater possibility of EF2 or greater tornadoes within 25 miles of the area. The greatest threat associated with this system, however, is high winds. The Ark-La-Miss area has a chance of >70-mph(!!!) winds. We are in the 45% hatched area which means it's very likely to see damaging winds associated with this system. Now although hail cannot be ruled out, it is very unlikely that hail will form with this system. As I read the discussion from SPC, it specifically states that tornadoes, some severe, are possible throughout the lower MS valley in the afternoon of Saturday. With this in mind, it is very likely that the system will weaken as the night progresses but this does not mean that the risk for tornadoes is gone. Instability is relatively strong for this time of year. So with that in mind, this could either be a good, or bad, day depending on how quickly these two lines merge together. If it merges after sundown as the models suggest, then this could be a long day for meteorologists as the threat for isolated strong tornadoes become a very real threat. Keep a weather radio nearby tomorrow, as I keep saying. Don't take warnings lightly, all it takes for one tornado to change your life. Ask the people of Yazoo City and Smithville. It only takes one.

Early morning bump